Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that the FOMC should adjust interest rates closer to neutral levels [1] - Tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on prices [1] - Private sector hiring is approaching a "stall speed" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes there is no justification for maintaining the current policy interest rate, as it poses a risk of a sudden downturn in the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - Waller suggests that the current interest rate policy may not be necessary and could lead to adverse effects on employment [1] - **Labor Market** - There is a concern regarding the potential for a sudden decline in the labor market if the interest rates are kept at their current levels [1]

Core Insights - The labor market is showing increasing signs of weakness according to Federal Reserve Governor Bowman [1] - The upward risks to price stability have diminished [1] Labor Market - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman highlighted that the labor market is exhibiting signs of growing fragility [1] Price Stability - There has been a noted reduction in the upward risks associated with price stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates closer to neutral levels and not wait for labor market deterioration to take action [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes the need for proactive interest rate adjustments [1] - The statement suggests a shift in monetary policy approach to prevent potential economic downturns [1]

美联储理事鲍曼：劳动力市场显示出日益脆弱的迹象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should not wait for a deterioration in the labor market before taking action [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Actions - Waller advocates for proactive measures by the Federal Reserve to address economic conditions rather than reactive responses to labor market changes [1] Labor Market Insights - The statement suggests that monitoring labor market indicators is crucial for timely interventions by the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's immigration policies are increasingly straining an already weakening labor market, with July non-farm payrolls expected to show only 110,000 new jobs, down from 147,000 in June and below the average of 130,000 for the year [2] - The demand for labor is decreasing due to uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies, particularly affecting industries reliant on foreign labor such as agriculture, construction, and food manufacturing [2][3] - The U.S. labor force decreased by 130,000 in June, with a total decline of 364,000 since the beginning of the year, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, the lowest since December 2022 [2] Group 2 - The number of immigrants detained by ICE has increased from an average of 15,000 per month in 2024 to nearly 40,000 by June this year, while deportations have risen from an annualized rate of 400,000 to about 600,000 [2] - The total number of foreign workers in the U.S. has decreased by over 1 million in the past four months, with a record 5.4 million people exiting the labor market in May alone [3][4] - The share of foreign workers in the U.S. labor force fell to 19.1% in June from 19.8% in March, indicating a significant impact on industries struggling to replace lost labor [5] Group 3 - The labor shortage related to immigration could reduce the potential annual economic growth rate in the U.S. from 2% to 1% [6] - The job market is experiencing a split, with labor shortages in construction, hospitality, and agriculture, while white-collar job recruitment is slowing due to economic uncertainty [6] - The stable unemployment rate, which slightly decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, may lead the Federal Reserve to refrain from interest rate cuts despite a significant slowdown in job growth [6]

前美联储理事Larry Meyer在本周的美联储的议息会议结束后写道，鲍威尔讲话的含义是，如果事情继 续像现在这样发展(其中包括重要的一点，即劳动力市场没有恶化)，FOMC很有可能在9月份继续按兵不 动。与此同时，鲍威尔听起来并不排斥降息，只要未来数据和前景的演变表明有充分的理由去降息， FOMC就会采取降息行动。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

金十数据8月1日讯，前美联储理事Larry Meyer在本周的美联储的议息会议结束后写道，鲍威尔讲话的 含义是，如果事情继续像现在这样发展（其中包括重要的一点，即劳动力市场没有恶化），FOMC很有 可能在9月份继续按兵不动。与此同时，鲍威尔听起来并不排斥降息，只要未来数据和前景的演变表明 有充分的理由去降息，FOMC就会采取降息行动。 前美联储理事：劳动力市场若没有恶化，美联储9月可能不降息 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-08-01 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：美股业绩表现亮眼》 - 2025.07.29 宏观观点 9 月降息悬而未决——7 月美联储议息会议点评 ⚫ 核心观点： 在最新的 FOMC 会议上，美联储决定继续维持联邦基金利率目标 区间在 4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。鲍威尔主席在发布会上的 表态整体偏鹰，他强调当前风险更偏向于通胀，而失业率维持低位反 映劳动力市场状况依然稳健。有两位理事鲍曼和沃勒对此次决议投下 反对票，二人皆主张应当降息 25 个基点，这是三十多年来首次有两 位理事反对，或显示出联储内部在政治压力下出现分歧。 鲍威尔明确表示，尚未就 9 月是否降息作出任何决定，但在此之 前将收到两轮就业与通胀数据，届时委员会将根据最新数据作出判 断。发布会后市场对 9 月降息的预期有所降温，根据 CME Fed Watch ...