Core Viewpoint - Qingdao City has launched the "2025 Consumer Goods Replacement and Home Adaptation Project for the Elderly," which aims to enhance home environments for seniors through subsidies for product replacements [1] Group 1: Project Implementation - The project will provide subsidies to elderly individuals aged 60 and above, with the product delivery address within Qingdao City [1] - The subsidy standard is set at 30% of the product transaction price, with a maximum total subsidy of 15,000 yuan per person [1] Group 2: Product Range - The project has selected nearly a thousand products for the subsidy list, covering six major categories: floor and door modifications, bedroom renovations, toilet and bathing equipment upgrades, kitchen equipment improvements, physical environment modifications, and smart assistive products [1] - The product list includes 25 types of products as per the guidelines from higher authorities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The consumption finance industry is undergoing a significant structural transformation, with frequent changes in executive leadership reflecting strategic shifts and the search for new growth paths amid a challenging economic environment [1][4]. Group 1: Executive Changes - The approval of new executives, such as Niu Xiaofeng at Bank of China Consumer Finance Co., indicates a trend of increasing turnover in key positions within the consumption finance sector, with 16 and 17 changes recorded in 2023 and 2024 respectively [1][2]. - The background of new executives often reveals strategic priorities, as seen with Niu Xiaofeng's extensive experience in financial technology innovation [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Trends - Bank of China Consumer Finance reported a loan balance of 719.48 billion yuan by the end of 2023, with online loans making up 62.49% of the total, a significant increase from 52.24% the previous year [3]. - The company experienced a revenue decline of 8.85% year-on-year in 2024, with net profit dropping by 91.62%, highlighting the industry's struggle to adapt to a more competitive environment [4]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The consumption finance sector is transitioning from a "license dividend period" to a "capability competition period," necessitating firms to enhance their integration of services and risk management to sustain growth [4]. - Analysts suggest that executive changes may introduce new strategic thinking and management practices, which could help address performance declines [5]. Group 4: Policy and Market Opportunities - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the promotion of personal consumption loans, are expected to provide a supportive environment for the consumption finance sector [5][6]. - The potential for growth in service consumption remains significant, with current levels in China being much lower than in developed countries, indicating a large market opportunity [6][7].

Industry Overview - The domestic furniture industry showed significant growth in the first five months of 2025, with retail sales totaling 75.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.40% [2][19] - The furniture manufacturing sector experienced a revenue decline of 3.90%, totaling 248.87 billion yuan [19] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively stimulated consumer spending, leading to rapid sales growth in related products [19] Market Performance - From June 2 to June 30, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.12 percentage points, with a return of 3.62% compared to the index's 2.50% [4][49] - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points, achieving a return of 1.94% [4][53] Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in several companies, including Oppein Home (增持), Sophia (增持), Semir Apparel (增持), Pathfinder (增持), and Guibao Pet (增持) [6][55] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue driving growth in the home goods sector, with central government funding of 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [6][57] Key Data Points - In May, furniture exports amounted to 5.637 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40% [21][58] - The pet food industry saw a significant increase in sales during the "618" shopping festival, with total sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.36% [6][57] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 613.84 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.30% [2][40]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The macro - environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[1][2]. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened higher and oscillated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.40%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.14%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03%[1] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan[1] - Money market: On Wednesday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.51% (1.55% the previous day)[1] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.37 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.56 BP to 1.85%[1] - US ADP employment: In June, the US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, lower than the estimated increase of 98,000 people and the previous increase of 37,000 people[1] Market Logic - Stimulus policies are continuously introduced: In late June, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the allocation of the third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds and the implementation of equipment renewal loan discount policies, and the Monetary Policy Committee recommended strengthening monetary policy regulation[1] - Industrial profit data: In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year - on - year (a 3% increase in April), which is favorable for bond market bulls[1] - PMI data: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (49.5% the previous month)[1] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations[2]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a notice to allocate an additional 81 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, with a total of over 1,600 billion yuan allocated in the first two batches this year [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant results, with substantial increases in sales across various consumer goods categories, contributing to a 4.6% year-on-year growth in national retail sales in the first quarter [1][2] Group 1 - The NDRC has allocated over 1,600 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy this year, with an additional 81 billion yuan to be distributed based on local payment progress [1] - As of April 27, the "old-for-new" program has led to the replacement of 281.4 million vehicles, 49.416 million home appliances, and 3.7855 million digital products, generating approximately 720 billion yuan in related sales [1] - The demand for consumer goods under the "old-for-new" policy remains strong, with many regions achieving high utilization rates of the initial subsidy funds [1] Group 2 - In Shenzhen, the "old-for-new" initiative has driven the sale of 39,000 vehicles and 619.8 million home appliances, with total sales amounting to 97.7 billion yuan and 117.5 billion yuan respectively [2] - The NDRC plans to enhance coordination among departments to expedite the review and disbursement of allocated funds, ensuring that financial benefits reach consumers directly [2] - The ongoing implementation of consumption-boosting policies, including "old-for-new," is expected to sustain consumer enthusiasm and stimulate demand in the home appliance market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds in the third quarter has been announced, with a total of 11 bonds to be issued, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting market confidence and investment [1][3]. Issuance Schedule - In July, three bonds will be issued, including a 20-year bond on July 14 and a 30-year bond on the same day, both being first issuances [2] - In August, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on August 1 and a 30-year bond on August 22, with several renewals scheduled [2] - In September, four bonds will be issued, including a 50-year bond on September 10 and a 30-year bond on September 19, all with semi-annual interest payments [2] Issuance Scale - In the first half of the year, 9 ultra-long-term special government bonds were issued, totaling 555 billion yuan, which is 42.69% of the total issuance for the year, significantly higher than the 250 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The total issuance scale for the second half of the year is projected to be 745 billion yuan, with a concentration in the third quarter [2] Fiscal Policy Impact - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is set to increase to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, up by 300 billion yuan from last year, with 800 billion yuan allocated to support "two heavy" projects and 500 billion yuan for "two new" policies [3] - The proactive fiscal policy aims to stimulate market confidence, social investment, and consumption, thereby enhancing market vitality [3][4] Consumption and Investment Support - The funding support for consumption goods replacement is set at 300 billion yuan, with previous allocations exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan in sales for related products this year [4] - The first batch of funding for equipment updates has been allocated to approximately 7,500 projects across 16 sectors, with ongoing project reviews for subsequent funding [4]

在业内人士看来，为更好地开展以旧换新，金融机构须以创新产品与协同机制合力破局。多方共管简化 流程、数字技术赋能风控、产业链协同发展，将成为金融持续护航以旧换新、做强国内大循环的重要路 径。 为小微企业垫资"减压" 针对部分参与消费品以旧换新的市场主体资金垫付压力大、周转存在困难等难点，银行推出创新贷款产 品，部分地区也推出融资新模式。 《指导意见》提出，要"加大对报废机动车回收拆解、废旧家电回收及家电以旧换新、家装厨卫'焕 新'、生活必需品保供相关企业信贷支持力度"。 原标题：创新产品与协同机制并进 金融机构多举措赋能"消费品以旧换新" 日前，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》 （以下简称《指导意见》）提出，"鼓励金融机构多渠道、多方式做好消费品以旧换新金融服务"。 为支持国内大循环，金融机构正积极参与支持以旧换新，尤其针对部分参与消费品以旧换新的市场主体 所面临的资金垫付压力大、周转存在困难等难点，精准提供金融支持，努力缓解企业垫资"减压"。 民银行佛山市分行将"白名单"推送至银行机构，引导银行机构充分发挥资金流信息平台在客户准入、贷 前调查等方面的重要作用 ...

Group 1: Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Oscillating with an upward bias; Medium - term - Bullish [1] - Core View: Overseas risks are decreasing, Sino - US consultations are progressing positively, domestic policies are boosting the equity market, and the science and technology sector is expected to continue its upward trend [1] - Strategy: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] Group 2: Financial Futures and Options - Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Oscillating and rebounding; Medium - term - Bullish [2] - Core View: The domestic fundamental situation is weak, policy expectations are strengthening, and the money market is conducive to the bond market [3] - Strategy: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [2] Group 3: Commodity Futures and Options - Black and Building Materials Sector - Investment Rating: Intraday - Short - term switching between long and short, downward driving force weakening; Medium - term - Stopping decline and stabilizing [4] - Core View: Supply pressure of steel raw materials will ease, and speculative demand for steel will heat up in the short term [4][5] - Strategy: Buy RB2510 at - the - money call options and short RB2510 straddle options in the range of 2900 - 3200 [4]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].