Core Viewpoint - The recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicate a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming September meeting due to changing economic risks [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3321, closing at $3371, reflecting a significant daily gain [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [1] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut at the next monetary policy meeting, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell acknowledged the clear impact of the trade war on consumer prices but suggested it may be a one-time shock that the central bank can overlook [1] - He noted that while inflation faces upward risks, the labor market is not particularly tight, indicating a challenging economic environment [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices found short-term support around $3325, with the 100-day moving average serving as a key defense level [3] - A drop below the recent low of $3311 could accelerate declines towards $3300 or even $3270-3265, marking the lower boundary of a three-month trading range [3] - Resistance is noted in the $3348-3350 range, with a breakthrough potentially triggering short covering and pushing prices towards $3375 and beyond [3]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 846 points to reach a historical high of 45,631 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also saw substantial gains [3] - Major technology companies such as Nvidia, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Tesla reported increases in stock prices, with Tesla jumping by 5% [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference indicated a "strange balance" in the labor market, suggesting a cooling in both supply and demand, with July's non-farm payrolls revised down to only 73,000, missing expectations by over 40,000 [3] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 91%, leading to a drop in US Treasury yields and a weakening dollar, which in turn fueled investments in the stock market [3] Government Intervention in Intel - The US government has acquired a 10% stake in Intel, becoming the largest shareholder, which is seen as a strategic move amid the ongoing technology competition [4] - This acquisition replaces a previously planned $10.9 billion subsidy under the CHIPS and Science Act, indicating a shift towards equity stakes in key technology firms [4] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks such as Miniso and NIO saw significant increases, with Miniso rising by 20% and NIO by 14.44%, reflecting optimism regarding the recovery of Chinese consumer spending [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.73%, benefiting from the overall bullish sentiment in the US market [4] Global Market Trends - Other markets also showed positive trends, with crude oil prices slightly increasing, gold prices rising by 1%, and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index reaching a historical high [4] - The European Stoxx 600 index is approaching its historical peak, indicating a global trend of capital flowing into risk assets amid expectations of interest rate cuts [4]

到2025年，通胀率回落至2.3%，然而美联储却坚持将利率维持在4.25?.5%的高位，坚决不降息。特朗普的施压与威胁让美联储的独立性经受空前的考验。 而在2020年疫情危机期间，鲍威尔的果敢应对则成为他任内的耀眼功勋。2020年3月，新冠疫情席卷全球，美股在短短10天内经历4次熔断，失业率飙升至 14.7%，金融市场陷入流动性枯竭的恐慌之中。在这关键时刻，鲍威尔展现出与其平日谨慎风格截然不同的果断行动。 美联储在两周内将利率从1.5?.75%急速下调至零。 随着特朗普的公开施压以及对解雇的威胁，美联储的独立性正面临史无前例的考验。这位保守派领导者已经深陷舆论与政策的漩涡之中……看鲍威尔究竟 做错了什么，做对了什么？ 自2018年接手美联储以来，杰罗姆·鲍威尔经历了美国经济动荡近半个世纪的种种考验：从特朗普的减税政策所带来的繁荣，到新冠疫情引发的金融危 机，再者是四十年来罕见的通胀风暴，以及在2025年特朗普重回白宫后产生的政治斗争。鲍威尔的决策时而能够力挽狂澜，时而则显得迟缓无力，既成功 将市场从崩溃的边缘拉回，也因对形势的误判饱受指责。 ...

来源：滚动播报 但鲍威尔同时强调，货币政策没有预设路径，联邦公开市场委员会成员将完全基于对数据的评估，以及 这些数据对经济前景和风险平衡的影响来作出决策。这意味着8月非农就业和消费者价格指数数据将成 为9月货币政策的关键变量。 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 克利夫兰联储银行行长哈马克22日接受美国电视新 ...

7月会议决策：美联储在7月30日的会议上决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.5%不变，仅两位官员（鲍曼和沃勒）支持降息25个基点。这一决策反映 了美联储对通胀上行风险和就业下行风险的平衡考量。 一、7月CPI数据详解：通胀温和回落，但结构性压力仍存 根据最新数据，2025年7月美国CPI同比上涨2.7%，低于市场预期的2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，符合预期。核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，环比上涨0.3%，创下6个月来 最大涨幅。这一数据表明，尽管整体通胀压力有所缓解，但核心通胀仍具韧性，服务通胀（如住房）的黏性尤为显著。 通胀回落的主要驱动力： 1. 能源价格下跌：7月能源指数下降1.1%，其中WTI原油价格在7月23日为65.45美元/桶，较前一交易日微涨0.214%，但整体趋势仍抑制了通胀压力。地 缘风险溢价虽对油价形成支撑，但全球能源需求预期变化及夏季出行高峰接近尾声，使得能源价格未出现大幅反弹。 2. 供应链改善：尽管关税对部分商品（如服装、家具）价格有冲击，但未引发全面通胀飙升。企业逐步消化关税前库存，缓解了商品通胀压力。 3. 需求减弱：居民消费疲软，企业投资增速放缓，尤其是设备及无形资产投 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut in the coming months despite rising inflation risks [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed nearly 90% market expectation for a rate cut in September following Powell's speech [1] - Powell emphasized that monetary policy decisions will be based on data assessments, making upcoming employment and consumer price index data critical for September's policy [1] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in July, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, below the expected 110,000 [2] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - Some Federal Reserve officials expressed skepticism about rate cuts, citing ongoing inflation concerns and the need for more data before supporting a September rate reduction [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the US dollar index and the surge in gold prices are primarily driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, which strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On Friday, spot gold closed up $33.05, an increase of 0.98%, reaching $3,371.51 per ounce [1]. - The US dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold priced in dollars relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [2]. - Following Powell's remarks, the two-year US Treasury yield dropped by 10 basis points to 3.69% [3]. Group 2: Powell's Speech Insights - Powell indicated that while he did not commit to a rate cut, changes in risk conditions may necessitate a policy adjustment [3]. - He emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of employment stability and inflation management, acknowledging the risks posed by tariffs on consumer prices [3]. - Powell's comments opened a potential pathway for a rapid rate cut in September, positively impacting various asset classes, including gold [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The CME's FedWatch Tool shows that traders currently estimate an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% before Powell's speech [4]. - Market analysts suggest that if the belief in a continued rate cut cycle solidifies, the US dollar is likely to weaken further [4]. - The importance of upcoming employment and inflation data before the Fed's decision-making meeting on September 16-17 is highlighted [4].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months during his speech at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference [1][4]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but there is a significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [4]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [4]. Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that the balance of risks regarding employment and inflation is shifting, which may lead the Fed to consider a rate cut in September [4][10]. - The Fed's interest rate has been maintained in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% since December of the previous year, with concerns that government tariff policies could impact inflation [8]. Market Expectations - Prior to Powell's speech, the market anticipated an over 80% probability of a rate cut, which increased to over 90% following his remarks, reflecting a clear signal from Powell [10]. - Powell emphasized the need for careful evaluation of actual data and economic outlooks, acknowledging the uncertainties surrounding future rate cuts [9]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed revised its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, including the removal of the "average inflation targeting" framework in favor of a more flexible inflation target [4].

Primary Market - A total of 31 offshore bonds were issued this week (August 18-22, 2025), including 2 offshore RMB bonds, 19 USD bonds, 8 HKD bonds, 1 THB bond, and 1 JPY bond, with issuance scales of 1.484 billion RMB, 10.097 billion USD, 4.25 billion HKD, 700 million THB, and 10.1 billion JPY [1] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 774 million RMB by Hangzhou Fuyang Transportation Development Investment Group [1] - The highest coupon rate for RMB bonds this week was 5%, issued by Zhengzhou Jianzhong Construction Development Group [1] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 5 billion USD by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, with the highest coupon rate of 7% issued by Zhangzhou Yuanshan Development Co., Ltd. [1] Secondary Market - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly increased this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD bond composite index rising by 0.03% to 246.82 [2] - The investment-grade USD bond index also increased by 0.03% to 239.26, while the high-yield USD bond index rose by 0.04% to 246.82 [2] - The real estate USD bond index decreased by 0.09% to 183.34, while the city investment USD bond index increased by 0.1% to 150.95 [2] - The financial USD bond index rose by 0.04% to 286.88 [2] Default and Restructuring - China Glass announced a default on a loan of 140 million USD, failing to make a payment of 141.7 million USD on the due date [4] - Country Garden is working towards completing its overseas debt restructuring by the end of 2025, with strong support from creditors [10] - Sunac China announced plans to restructure 9.552 billion USD of debt, with approximately 75% of creditors signing a support agreement [11] - Guangzhou Times Holdings announced a suspension of all outstanding corporate bonds starting August 25, 2025, to arrange for future debt repayments [12] - Yuzhou Group's restructuring proposal for its 375 million USD offshore debt due in 2027 has been approved by a majority of qualified bondholders [13] Market News - The Bond Connect Northbound trading volume reached 957.6 billion RMB in July, with policy financial bonds and government bonds being the most active [5] - A total of 14 new science and technology innovation bond ETFs were reported on August 20, indicating rapid expansion in this category [6][7] - The People's Bank of China announced the issuance of 45 billion RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong, with two different maturities [8] Overseas News - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated expectations of rising inflation in the short term, with most officials believing inflation risks outweigh employment risks [9]

紧随鲍威尔讲话，美股三大指数齐涨，美元指数直线下挫，国际金价上涨，加密货币也集体 拉升。 "对降息持开放态度" 鲍威尔暗示美联储可能降息 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表 示，当前形势暗示就业增长面临下行风险，风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政策。鲍威尔 称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会已于当地时间8月21日在美国怀俄明州拉开序幕。北京 时间22日22点， 美联储主席 鲍威尔 发表主旨演讲， 释放重磅信号。 22日晚间，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，美国就业面临的下行风险上升，风 险的平衡转变可能使得美联储调整政策立场成为恰当之举。 随后，交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注，再次完全定价美联储将在年底前降息两次。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率飙升至91.1%，维持利率不变的概率 为8.9%。 特朗普发出解雇警告 美联储理事：不会因威胁辞职鲍威尔 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月22日，记者获悉，美国总统特朗普在访问华盛顿一所白宫主 题博物馆时表示，如果美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）不主动辞职，他将 ...