美联储理事沃勒公开表达了对美联储主席职位的兴趣，同时暗示7月降息的可能，认为私营部门的就业疲软是本月就应采取行动的理由。 沃勒在周五接受媒体采访时表示，对私营部门招聘状况的担忧，是他呼吁美联储在本月降息的核心驱动因素。他表示，上个月的就业增长主要来 自公共部门，这意味着私营部门的状况并不像外界普遍认为的那样健康。他甚至暗示，如果他的同事们在7月29-30日的会议上决定不降息，他可 能会提出异议。 在这次采访中，沃勒还就接替现任主席鲍威尔的可能性发表了直率评论。当被问及如果特朗普总统邀请他出任美联储主席，他会作何反应时，沃 勒回答： "如果他说，'Chris，我希望你来做这份工作'，我会说'好的'。" 沃勒对其降息呼吁的解释，完全集中在劳动力市场的结构性问题上。他强调： "私营部门的表现并不像大家想的那么好。" 这一判断基于7月3日发布的6月非农就业报告。该报告显示，尽管整体失业率小幅走低，但私营部门的就业增长出现放缓，同时薪资增长也开始减 速。沃勒的观点是，在通胀风险有限的情况下，美联储应该在劳动力市场开始恶化之前就降低借贷成本，这与他在周四于纽约发表的演讲主旨一 致。 在其言论发表后，一项美元指数下跌0.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals showed a pattern of gold being weak and silver being strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of safe - haven demand. The market has become dull to trade - war and Middle - East geopolitical risks. In terms of monetary attributes, strong employment and inflation in the US rule out the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. In terms of commodity attributes, there is still an expected supply - demand gap for silver, and industrial demand is expected to improve. Short - term precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium and long term, the increasing risk of economic recession may force the rate - cut logic to develop, and precious metals are expected to remain at a high level in the medium term and show a long - term upward trend [5]. - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies. The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - The trade war has entered a new stage, and there are continuous geopolitical changes in the Middle East, but the market has become dull to these two types of safe - haven factors [5]. - Trump once threatened to fire Powell but later clarified that he would "take no action for the time being", easing market concerns [5]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US employment and inflation growth are still strong, eliminating the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near term. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to internal disagreements. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be postponed to September, and the total rate - cut space in 2025 is expected to drop to about 50 basis points. The US 6 - month CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2][5]. - A review of the Fed's monetary policy path from 2024 - 2025 shows different stances on rate cuts at different times, including rate cuts of different magnitudes, concerns about inflation and employment, and changes in the expected number of rate cuts [10][11]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Gold jewelry consumption is restricted by high prices, but investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets are driving up gold - buying demand through their "de - dollarization" strategies [2]. - The World Silver Association expects the global silver supply - demand gap to narrow by 21% in 2025, to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have been slightly reduced. In the domestic market, the net long positions of institutions in Shanghai gold have remained at a high level, while those in Shanghai silver have been slightly reduced. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No specific content provided in the report. 6. Weekly Strategy - Short - term: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly. - Medium - term: Precious metals are expected to remain at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals are expected to show an upward trend [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Support for Shanghai gold futures main contract: 755 - 760; Resistance: 790 - 795. - Support for Shanghai silver futures main contract: 8900 - 8930; Resistance: 9400 - 9430 [5].

此外，叠加特朗普所主导的"大而美"法案通过后政府预算赤字可能大举扩张，再加上日本参议院选举带来的政府支出预期动荡导致日本长期限国债收益率大 幅上升带来的债市溢出效应，这些因素共同加剧了近期美国国债收益率的持续上行压力，尤其是有着"全球资产定价之锚"称号的10年期美债收益率以及更长 期限的美债收益率随时可能迈向显著上行轨迹，令近期涨势如虹且屡创新高的全球股市面临重大考验。 "即使特朗普否认短期内将撤换鲍威尔，市场关于美联储独立性的不确定性仍高企，这可能令长期限的美债持续以折价方式处于下行交易模式。"来自摩根大 通的策略师杰伊·巴里(Jay Barry)团队在一份研究报告中写道。 智通财经APP获悉，在过去几日围绕美联储货币政策路径转鹰or转鸽，以及围绕美联储领导层可能更替的激辩后，周五美国国债市场收复了部分周线跌幅， 而今年以来持续被抛售的美元则仍处于走弱轨迹。摩根大通策略师表示，股债汇市场所面临的不确定性仍然很高，可能导致长期限美国国债持续折价交易， 尤其是10年及以上的长期限美债收益率随时可能大幅走高。 有着"全球定价之锚"称号的10年期美债收益率小幅回落至4.45%(本周迄今为止仍然上涨3个基点)，而更长 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The gold futures market shows a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The gold price remains in a high - level oscillation [3]. - Trump's tariff on copper has both explicit and implicit purposes. In the short term, copper prices may continue to oscillate [14]. - Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors. They may adjust in the short term and are expected to be weak in the long term. Alumina may maintain a high - level oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy has limited upward space [33][34]. - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - Nickel prices may be boosted by factors such as nickel - iron price adjustments and potential formula revisions in Indonesia. Stainless steel and nickel salt have certain trends [75]. - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak [107]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space [116]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold - The fundamentals of SHFE gold futures present a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The market is short - term focused on US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data [3]. - Various data charts show the trends of SHFE and COMEX gold prices, gold - dollar index, gold - US Treasury real interest rate, etc. [4][8] Copper - Trump's tariff on copper has explicit and implicit purposes. The short - term copper price may oscillate. The closing price last week can be used as a short - term reference [14]. - The latest prices of SHFE copper futures show different changes. The spot prices of different copper sources also have various fluctuations, and the import profit and loss, processing fees, etc. are also presented [15][22][26] Aluminum - Aluminum supply is approaching the industry limit, demand is in the off - season, and macro - level tariff policies and Fed policy uncertainties affect prices. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak [33]. - Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and it may maintain a high - level oscillation. Casting aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34]. - The latest prices of SHFE aluminum futures and related spreads are provided, along with spot prices and basis data [35][42][45] Zinc - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is short - term focused on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - The latest prices of SHFE zinc futures and LME zinc, along with spot prices and spreads, are presented [63][68] Nickel - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in July decreased slightly. Nickel - iron prices rose slightly, and factors such as Indonesian policy adjustments may boost nickel prices [75]. - The latest prices of SHFE nickel futures and related data on stainless steel futures are provided, along with information on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86] Tin - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The latest prices of SHFE tin futures and spot prices are presented, along with inventory data [93][97][100] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [107]. - The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices of various lithium products are provided, along with inventory data [108][111][114] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt changes [116]. - The latest spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and futures prices are provided, along with data on related products in the silicon industry chain [117][120][128]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by U.S. economic data and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, with a focus on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index as a key indicator for market direction [1][3]. Economic Data Analysis - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing market expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, indicating economic resilience [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut at the end of the month, citing persistent inflation pressures from tariffs [1]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices rebounded significantly, breaking through the 3340 resistance level and reaching around 3355, marking a recovery of over $45 from the week's low of 3310 [3]. - The market's recognition of the rebound is evident, with trading volume increasing by approximately 30% compared to the previous day [3]. Resistance and Support Levels - Primary resistance is identified in the 3365-3370 range, which is crucial for determining if the rebound can transition into a reversal [5]. - Short-term support is established at 3350-3355, while strong support is noted at 3340-3345, which is critical for maintaining bullish momentum [5]. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy includes focusing on "buying on dips" while cautiously placing small short positions at strong resistance levels to balance risk and opportunity [5].

美联储主席是非不断，再被推上风口浪尖，美联储信任危机将成金价的催化剂？金十研究员高阳正在直 播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 欧美盘黄金分析中 ...

据报道，美联储理事沃勒称，在美联储会议前，从不希望预先承诺采取某项行动。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：尽管总统对美联储的评论，但市场对通胀预期仍然保持锚定。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：截至目前为止，总统尚未与我联系。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：美联储理事会成员专注于他们的工作，而非总统的言论。 ...