Summary of the Conference Call for China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. (招商蛇口) - **Year**: 2024 Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: CNY 178.95 billion, up 2.25% year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: CNY 4.04 billion, down 36.09% year-on-year due to industry downturn and increased impairment provisions [3] - **Gross Margin**: 4.61% [3] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow of CNY 31.96 billion, with cash reserves reaching CNY 100.35 billion, the highest in five years [3] - **Sales**: Contracted sales of CNY 219.3 billion, ranking fifth in the industry [3][5] Industry Position and Market Dynamics - **Market Ranking**: Top 30 in 12 cities, with five cities ranking first locally [5] - **Investment Strategy**: Focused on core cities, acquiring 26 land parcels totaling 2.25 million square meters at a cost of CNY 48.6 billion [5] - **Market Conditions**: Transition from supply shortage to oversupply, with a need for strategic adjustments in product quality and service capabilities [12] Product Development and Innovation - **Product Lines**: Launched new product lines "启旭", "天青", and "揽月", achieving a 25% higher sales rate than competitors [3][6] - **Awards**: Projects recognized as top luxury offerings in 2024 [6] Asset Management and REITs - **Asset Income**: Total income from held properties reached CNY 7.46 billion, up 12% [8] - **REITs Platforms**: Established three REITs platforms with a total asset management scale of CNY 13.7 billion, promoting a virtuous cycle of asset management [9] Property Services - **Revenue Growth**: Property service revenue increased by 10% to CNY 17.1 billion, with net profit up 14% [10] - **Contract Growth**: New third-party contracts signed worth CNY 3.69 billion, covering 162 cities [10] ESG Initiatives - **ESG Rating**: Maintained an A rating from MSCI, the highest in the Chinese real estate sector, reflecting strong performance in environmental, social, and governance aspects [11] Future Strategies - **2025 Goals**: Focus on stabilizing development business while enhancing asset operation capabilities and expanding light asset business [13] - **Sales Target**: Expected saleable value of CNY 325 billion in 2025, with 79% from residential properties [14] - **Digital Transformation**: Implementing AI strategies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [16] Financial Health and Debt Management - **Debt Levels**: Total interest-bearing debt of CNY 222.6 billion, with a cost of 2.99% [4][26] - **Cost Management**: Reduced management costs and improved project debt management to align with cash flow [26] Market Outlook - **Economic Growth**: Anticipated 5% growth in 2025, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [21][22] - **Real Estate Policy**: Continued government support for stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to boost demand and improve supply [23][24] Conclusion - **Strategic Focus**: China Merchants Shekou is adapting to market changes by enhancing product quality, expanding service capabilities, and leveraging digital technologies to ensure sustainable growth in a challenging real estate environment.

Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - New home prices showed a month-on-month decline of 0.1% across 70 cities, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month increase, particularly Shanghai leading with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [6][9][42] - The transaction area of new homes increased month-on-month, while the Shenzhen housing fund policy was significantly adjusted to enhance loan limits and support for families with multiple children [42][44] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, suggesting that improved fiscal and monetary policies will help stabilize the housing market [9][43][44] Group 2: Banking Sector - Non-bank deposits showed a recovery in February, with a positive growth of 19.92 billion yuan, indicating a halt in the outflow trend [11][13] - The report highlights that the banking sector is expected to benefit from a declining cost of liabilities, with recommended stocks including Citic Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [15] - The credit demand remains weak, particularly in retail loans, while corporate loans are primarily driven by bill financing [14][15] Group 3: Machinery and Robotics - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for humanoid robot mass production, with significant capital expenditure expected across the supply chain [17][21] - The report estimates that the market for electric motors used in humanoid robots could reach 25.4 billion yuan with a demand for 62 motors per robot [19] - Key beneficiaries in the machinery sector include companies like Qinchuan Machine Tool and Jizhi Co., which are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for core components [21] Group 4: Consumer Services - The consumer services sector is experiencing growth driven by high-quality supply in the building block toy market, with a focus on cross-generational appeal [23][24] - The report emphasizes the potential for AI applications in the beauty industry, with significant sales contributions from live-streaming and influencer promotions [25][36] - Recommended stocks in the consumer services sector include Long White Mountain for tourism and various educational and beauty companies [26][37] Group 5: Building Materials - The report indicates a focus on building materials due to government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with recommendations for companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Weixing New Materials [28][29] - The cement industry is expected to benefit from energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with a target to control cement clinker capacity by 1.8 billion tons by 2025 [29][30] - The building materials index has shown a slight increase, but it has underperformed compared to the broader market indices [30][31] Group 6: Media and AI Applications - The report highlights the growth of AI applications in gaming, with new titles leveraging AI technology for enhanced user interaction [35][36] - The potential for children's literature and toys is expected to rise due to government policies supporting child-rearing, with a focus on companies like Aofei Entertainment [37][38] - Recommended stocks in the media sector include Tencent and NetEase, which are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [35][36]

Summary of REITs Investment Framework and Latest Tracking Industry Overview - The document discusses the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) industry, particularly focusing on infrastructure REITs in China, which serve as a tool for real estate investment while meeting financing needs of the real economy and social capital investment demands [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: Infrastructure REITs primarily adopt a core investment strategy, characterized by low risk and long investment horizons, targeting mature real estate assets such as office buildings, retail properties, and industrial properties [2][4]. - **Key Support Regions**: The Chinese REITs market emphasizes support for regions like the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, covering 12 pilot industries including transportation, energy, municipal, environmental protection, logistics, and rental housing [2][6]. - **Valuation Methods**: Valuation methods for REITs include cost, income, and market approaches. However, due to the domestic market's maturity and information disclosure issues, the income approach is deemed more suitable, with differentiated valuation based on asset types [2][8]. - **Market Performance**: In 2024, the Chinese REITs market saw an overall increase of approximately 30%, with significant differentiation among types. Defensive assets like rental housing and energy infrastructure performed strongly, while cyclical assets like logistics and transportation showed modest gains [2][12][13]. - **Consumer Infrastructure**: Consumer infrastructure is expected to perform exceptionally well from 2024 to 2025, with an average increase of 36.4% for newly listed assets in 2024, and a dividend yield of around 5% by the end of the year, outperforming other asset types [2][14]. - **Yield Differentiation**: As of March 14, 2025, the yield rates for various infrastructure REITs showed significant differentiation, with defensive assets yielding between 3.5% and 3.8%, while transportation infrastructure yielded as high as 6.67% [2][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Liquidity Concerns**: The liquidity of REITs in the Chinese market is relatively low, with a total issuance scale of approximately 160 to 170 billion, primarily held by institutional investors, leading to low turnover rates. However, trading activity has improved recently [2][15]. - **High Configuration Value**: In the current market environment, consumer infrastructure and affordable rental housing, along with new municipal environmental projects, are highlighted as having high configuration value due to their robust fundamentals and relatively high yields [3][17]. - **Tracking Market Performance**: Monitoring the overall REITs market can be done through weekly tracking databases that assess market performance, liquidity, asset correlation, and valuation conditions [18]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data from the REITs investment framework and tracking document, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the REITs market in China.

相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 胡巧云 A0230520080005 huqy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 REIT 申购 2025 年 03 月 14 日 南方顺丰 REIT (180305.SZ)申购价 值分析 本期投资提示： 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 申 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 购 策 略 - ⚫ 本 REIT 发售份额为 10 亿份，询价日为 2025 年 3 月 17 日，询价区间为 2.903 元/份-3.435 元/份，预计募集资金为 31.22 亿元。网下投资者及其管理的每一配售对象自上市之日起前 三个交易日（含上市首日）内可交易的份额不超过其获配份额的 50%。 ⚫ 所处区 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for AIDC cabinets is expected to continue increasing in the AI era, and IDC REITs will assist AIDC companies in achieving scale expansion [6][18] - IDC REITs can help domestic IDC companies to revitalize existing assets, improve financing pressure, and create a closed funding loop [4][13] - Implementing IDC REITs allows IDC companies to enhance their ROE and transition to a light asset operation model [5][16] Summary by Sections REITs Structure - China's REITs pilot adopts a trust-based structure, distinguishing between company-type and contract-type REITs, with the latter being predominant in Asia [12] IDC REITs Benefits - IDC REITs provide a viable channel for mature projects to realize significant investment returns, facilitating new project development and acquisitions [4][13] - By separating heavy asset operations from the parent company, IDC REITs can lower financial risks and costs while maintaining operational income through management of the REITs [5][16] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies like Runze Technology (first IDC REITs filing) and Baoxin Software, with beneficiaries including a range of IDC firms such as Guanghuan New Network and Century Interconnect [6][18]

Macro - The National People's Congress (NPC) is set to enhance the legal framework for the socialist market economy, including laws to promote the private economy and financial regulations [4] - The NPC will hold a press conference on March 9, addressing issues related to civil affairs, employment, housing, and health [4] - The Ministry of Commerce is actively engaging with foreign enterprises in Beijing to address their investment concerns [4] Domestic Stock Market - During the Two Sessions, proposals were made to strengthen investor protection and expedite the development of the REITs market [7][8] - There is a noticeable normalization in IPO activities, with some brokerages indicating an increase in project submissions [7] - A significant number of A-share companies are planning to list in Hong Kong, driven by globalization and favorable policy environments [8] Industry - Huawei has officially established a healthcare division, signaling its entry into the AI medical industry [12] - DeepSeek is gaining traction as a leading AI application, with significant interest from Microsoft and recognition in global rankings [12] - The demand for computing power is increasing, with major contracts signed for substantial amounts, indicating growth in the sector [13] International Stock Market - Japanese automakers reported mixed results in new car sales in China, with Toyota seeing a 15% increase while Honda and Nissan experienced declines [18] - The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating potential price-fixing in the egg market, focusing on major suppliers [18] - Porsche SE anticipates a significant loss in the upcoming fiscal year due to non-cash impairment losses [19] Commodity - Waste paper prices have risen significantly due to increased demand and rising costs of raw materials [21] Bonds - The NPC is establishing a government debt management reporting system to address debt risks and ensure stability [22] - Chengde Bank has been approved to issue 3.5 billion yuan in perpetual bonds [22]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for February 2025 is recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return above the growth threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for the first two months of 2025 is 49.7%, lower than the average of 50.2% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a weaker manufacturing sentiment compared to seasonal norms[1] - The production index and new orders index for February are 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, indicating that production is expanding faster than demand[2] Economic Trends and Risks - The new export orders index stands at 48.6%, reflecting a slight recovery but still indicating potential risks in external demand due to uncertainties in trade policies[2] - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among manufacturing enterprises, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises are at 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, highlighting a reliance on large firms for recovery[2] - The manufacturing price indices indicate a potential narrowing of PPI declines, with the output price index at 48.5% and the main raw material purchase price index at 50.8%[2] Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI average for the first two months of 2025 is 50.6%, down from 51.3% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a slower economic recovery trajectory[6] - The construction PMI for February is 52.7%, showing a strong recovery post-holiday, while the service sector PMI is at 50.0%, indicating a decline[5] - The overall economic sentiment remains cautious, with the need for further policy support for small and medium enterprises highlighted as crucial for sustained recovery[2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment landscape in the real estate sector, particularly focusing on the performance and outlook of various real estate investment trusts (REITs) and housing-related companies [2][3]. Group 1: Company Insights - Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations is affiliated with Hoya Capital Real Estate, which provides investment advisory services and focuses on publicly traded securities in the real estate industry [2]. - The commentary emphasizes that the information provided is for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The real estate industry is highlighted as having unique risks associated with investments in real estate companies and housing industry companies [2]. - The article notes that past performance of market data does not guarantee future results, indicating the inherent volatility in the real estate sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to enhancing the quality of the capital market by supporting qualified companies in various sectors, including traditional Chinese medicine and biomedicine, to issue and list stocks, while also promoting mergers and acquisitions to facilitate asset integration and industrial upgrades [2][3][4]. Group 1: Support for Specific Industries - The CSRC will actively support qualified traditional Chinese medicine and biomedicine companies in their stock issuance and listing processes [2]. - The CSRC aims to assist qualified companies in the western regions of China through mergers and acquisitions to promote asset integration and industrial upgrades [3]. - The CSRC plans to support qualified heating companies in issuing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to enhance asset management and promote effective investment [6]. Group 2: Market Mechanisms and Reforms - The CSRC will deepen the market-oriented reform of mergers and acquisitions, encouraging leading companies to engage in absorption mergers and utilize various financial instruments for mergers and acquisitions [4]. - The CSRC is working to optimize and expand the connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong's financial markets, enhancing mechanisms such as stock and bond links [5]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - The CSRC has determined that the current conditions do not support the establishment of a new securities exchange in Chongqing, citing the existing exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing as sufficient to meet market needs [7][8]. - The CSRC noted that the conditions for launching REITs-based ETFs are not yet fully met, as the REITs market is still in its early stages [9]. Group 4: Proposal Handling and Efficiency - In 2024, the CSRC handled a total of 424 proposals from the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, focusing on enhancing the stability of the capital market and addressing public concerns [10].