在当今这个扑朔迷离的时代，中美两国的贸易摩擦正如一场喧嚣的争斗，惊心动魄，令人亡魂俱冒。在这一场你来我往的棋局中，美国的决策者们似乎忽然 觉醒，意识到自己存在着重大的战略误判，今时今日，孤掌难鸣的局面，如同一个翻覆的桌面，令人猝不及防。如此一来，他们不得不急忙拼凑起应对小 组，试图解开供应链面临的难题。而此时的美国，虽然表面上依然强撑着，心中却难以安宁，似乎是要在硬汉气概中与中国一决高下。 不可否认，股市的道理就如同铁打的指数流水的股，指数虽在3040点后有所反弹，但个股的命运却并非如此整齐。尽管指数有可能上涨至3400乃至3500点， 然而个股的位置却已经大相径庭，市场必然会经历一场重新的排兵布阵与洗牌。不难看出，结构化与分化的过程始终在进行。对于九连阳的现象，许多人或 许迷茫不解，仍在各种窗口指导的讨论中徘徊。但从技术分析的层面来看，这无不合理。沪指之所以强劲，归根结底就是权重股的推动，银行股自应水到渠 成地涨。 而更为积极的信号已经浮现，3300点的稳固与冲击3400的欲望并非虚妄。近期的政策频频强调稳住股市与楼市，并提出积极的财政政策，种种迹象表明，官 方对市场呵护之心已显露无遗。展望下周，整体走势仍 ...

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound this week, driven by a potential easing of US tariffs on China, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.15%, 2.74%, and 1.96% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, saw gains this week, with healthcare and information technology sectors leading with weekly increases of approximately 8% and 6% [4][14] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Index rose to around 55%, still below the 5-year average [4] Market Valuation Level - The valuation level of the Hong Kong stock market remains below the 5-year average, indicating potential for future growth [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 1.53 billion HKD, a decrease from 1.99 billion HKD the previous week, with 62 companies participating in buybacks, down from 78 [24][25] - AIA Group (1299.HK) led the buybacks with 913.64 million HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with 150.25 million HKD [24][25] - The financial sector saw the highest concentration of buyback amounts, driven by significant buybacks from AIA and HSBC [28] Southbound Fund Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net inflow of 4.197 billion HKD and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with 2.227 billion HKD [32] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) with a net outflow of 4.540 billion HKD and China Mobile (0941.HK) with 1.875 billion HKD [33] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The political bureau meeting emphasized the urgency of expanding domestic demand amidst a severe external environment, indicating a focus on stabilizing economic growth [44][46] - The meeting also highlighted the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external shocks and support domestic economic stability [46] - Recent data showed a 0.8% increase in profits for industrial enterprises in the first quarter, reflecting some improvement due to policy support, although external demand pressures remain [37][39] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report continues to favor sectors with relative economic resilience, such as automotive, technology, and internet industries, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term disturbances from trade tensions [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while short-term trade tensions may impact certain agricultural products, the long-term outlook remains manageable through diversification of import sources and enhancing self-sufficiency [6][14]. - The Chinese agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" which emphasizes food security and agricultural competitiveness [6][14]. Summary by Sections Trade Tensions - Recent data shows that the proportion of agricultural imports from the U.S. has decreased, with 2024 imports from the U.S. accounting for approximately 6.3% of total imports, down from 8.3% in 2017 [6][14]. - The report notes that most agricultural products have low import dependency, while a few, such as soybeans and sorghum, are more reliant on imports, particularly from the U.S. [6][14]. Meat Products - China is a major producer of pork, with a projected production of 57 million tons in 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of global production [18][20]. - The report anticipates a recovery in China's pig production capacity in 2025, with prices expected to fluctuate, initially declining before rising later in the year [39][40]. - Chicken production in China is projected to reach 15.5 million tons in 2025, with low import dependency, particularly from the U.S. [41][46]. Grain Products - China ranks second globally in corn production, with a projected output of 294.92 million tons in 2024/25, while maintaining a low import dependency [75][78]. - The report indicates that corn prices have shown signs of recovery, with domestic prices reaching 2285.29 yuan per ton as of April 2025 [79][80]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the agricultural sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the sector's growth [6][14].

大家好，欢迎来到本期的《逸语道破》，我们继续围绕中美贸易摩擦来讲。 "交易的艺术"？不过是慌不择路罢了【逸语… 沈逸老师 关注 进入哔哩哔哩，观看更高清 已静音开播 点击恢复音量 00:02 / 10:29 【文/ 逸语道破】 最近中美双方关于贸易摩擦正在逐渐进入一个新的阶段：一方面，从美国的角度来看，特朗普持续不断地发出错乱、混淆，甚至是虚假的信息，让各方继续 感觉到所谓交易的艺术背后，其实就是乱七八糟、蛮横无比，而中方这边有很明确的战略目标。 整场贸易战，就是美国单方面发动的一场霸凌措施，违背了国家之间正常的相处之道，也违反了全球多边贸易的基本游戏规则，所以中方必须要强势反制。 中方也认识得非常清楚，从美方选择设置的目标到使用的政策工具，都是错误的，对美国人自己是没有好处的。所以一旦坚决抵制把它打回去，在经济规律 的作用下，美方一定会付出更高的代价，它的失败是注定的。 在明确了这样的战略目标之后，中方要解决的是方式、方法、策略和道路问题，以尽可能小的代价加以有效地反制和应对。所以中方最近两天集中在做的一 件事情就是辟谣，商务部、外交部两天连着四五次辟谣。 面对美方这次的单边贸易霸凌，今天的中国形成了举国一 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应压力明显，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April, the bond market first declined significantly and then fluctuated sideways under the influence of factors such as the unexpected US tariff policy, better Q1 fundamental data, and the repeated Sino - US tariff game. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15BP to 1.66%. The yield curve flattened in a bullish manner [1][8]. - In May, the supply of government bonds is expected to reach a peak, with the special treasury bonds entering the issuance peak and the accelerated implementation of new special bonds. The net supply of government bonds in May may be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high [2][49]. - The central bank is likely to conduct operations such as reverse repurchase and MLF net injection to support liquidity, and may restart treasury bond trading operations. Substantive loose monetary policies such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts are also expected, and the money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May, attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and the short - term trading opportunities. The 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and appropriate incremental allocation can be made during adjustments [5][81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Declined Significantly and Then Fluctuated Sideways, and the Yield Curve Flattened in a Bullish Manner - In April, affected by multiple factors, the bond market first declined and then fluctuated. The 10Y Treasury yield dropped 15.23BP to 1.66%, and the 1Y Treasury yield dropped 8.78BP to 1.45%. The term spread narrowed by 6.45BP to 21.05BP [1][8]. - Overseas, US inflation showed a cooling trend, the labor market remained resilient, and the US equivalent tariff policy led to a decline in global risk appetite. The US Treasury yield rose significantly due to liquidity issues caused by basis trading. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June [10]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 This Month's Bond Market Outlook: Supply Peak is Approaching, Pay Attention to the Central Bank's Attitude and Hedging Operations - **Fundamentals**: Q1 fundamental data recovered more than expected, but the macro - data led by exports may be under short - term pressure in Q2. In May, continue to focus on the continuation of strong social financing, the improvement of CPI, the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on exports, and the drag of external demand on PMI. Also, pay attention to the impact of the improvement of real - estate data on the fundamentals [2][33]. - **Supply**: In May, the special treasury bonds will enter the issuance peak, and the new special bonds will be accelerated. The net supply of government bonds is expected to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, reaching the annual high. The supply of ordinary treasury bonds and special bonds for replacing hidden debts may shrink [2][49]. - **Money Market**: The accelerated issuance of government bonds may disturb the money market, but the central bank is likely to conduct operations to support liquidity. The money market in May is expected to remain balanced and stable [3][56]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone for macro - policies, but the incremental information was limited. Structural and aggregate monetary policy tools are expected to work together. Reserve - requirement ratio cuts may occur in May, while interest - rate cuts need to wait for the Fed to open the window [3][70]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In April, institutions increased their bond holdings, but there were obvious differences between bulls and bears. Banks were the main sellers, and other institutions were buyers. In May, there are opportunities for allocation in ultra - long - term bonds and trading in short - term bonds [4][75]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: The Bond Market is Not Bearish, Pay Attention to the Allocation Value of Ultra - long - term Bonds under the Supply Peak - In May, the main points of concern include the stability of the money market, the supply peak of government bonds, the implementation of loose policies, and the impact of external demand on the macro - economy. The bond market is not bearish in the short - term, and the 10 - year bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the allocation value of ultra - long - term bonds and short - term trading opportunities [80][81]. 3.3 Important Economic Calendar for May The report provides a list of important economic indicators to be released in May and their market expected values, including foreign exchange reserves, export and import data, PPI, CPI, and PMI [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US trade friction is at a standstill with high uncertainty, and there are still domestic policy expectations. In the short term, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing some support for the raw material demand. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Before the holiday, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. To avoid policy risks, it is recommended to continue to reduce short positions and hold a light position during the holiday [4][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The second - round price increase of spot coke has started but not yet landed, and the spot price is mainly stable. The coke 09 contract rose 0.87% to 1566 as of Friday's close. The freight rate of coke by truck remained stable last week [8][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and coke supply increased significantly. As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises nationwide was 75.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 66.85 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking was 87.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 47.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 tons [28][34] 3.1.3 Demand - Hot metal production accelerated its recovery, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. As of April 25, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,300 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points. The speculative sentiment was average, export profits declined, and the spot trading volume of building materials remained low [37][40] 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills made rigid - demand purchases, coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of April 25, the total coke inventory decreased by 29,600 tons week - on - week to 1.0148 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 25,200 tons week - on - week to 243,580 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 23,900 tons week - on - week to 104,870 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory increased by 19,500 tons week - on - week to 666,350 tons [43][46] 3.1.5 Profit - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and the coke futures profit fluctuated. The national sample of 30 independent coke enterprises had a loss of 9 yuan per ton of coke, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan. The futures profit of coke 09 increased by 3.45 yuan per ton week - on - week to 323.2 yuan per ton [54] 3.1.6 Valuation - Coke 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 13.5 week - on - week to - 79.39, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 week - on - week to - 28.5 [58] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The spot price mainly weakened. The coking coal 09 contract rose 0.37% to 956 as of Friday's close [4][61] 3.2.2 Supply - The impact of coal mine production cuts was limited, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the import of coking coal from January to March 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As of April 25, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants nationwide was 63.01%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 534,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 27.47 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [72][76] 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises reduced their inventories, coal mines accumulated inventories, and the total inventory remained flat. As of April 25, the total coking coal inventory increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week to 2.61251 million tons. Among them, the inventory of coking coal in mining enterprises increased by 212,600 tons week - on - week to 354,600 tons; the port inventory decreased by 125,900 tons week - on - week to 324,790 tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 3,500 tons week - on - week to 181,680 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 71,700 tons week - on - week to 968,960 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory decreased by 17,500 tons week - on - week to 782,480 tons [79][82] 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight discount, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 3.5 week - on - week to 14, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged week - on - week at - 48 [101]

| 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 焦炭 | 准一级冶金焦 | 国产 | 1900 | 出厂 | 河南省/郑 | 河南森蒂环保科技有限 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 州市 | 公司VIP | | 焦炭 | 一级3-6mm | 仟越星 | 980元/ | 出厂 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有 | | | | | 吨 | 价 | | 限公司VIP | | 焦炭 | 二级3-6mm | 仟越星 | 1100 | 出厂 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | | 限公司VIP | | | 25-38 | 国产 | 1700 | 市场 | | 河南利维特化工科技有 | | | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 河南省 | 限公司 | | | 准一级冶金焦 | 华晟能 | 1500 | 出厂 | 山西省/运 | 河津市华晟能源有限公 | | | | 源 | 元/吨 | 价 | 城市 | 司 | ...

东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-28 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 政策信号错综复杂，黄金价格大幅震荡 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | 货币属性 | 本周美元指数呈现剧烈震荡走势，周初因特朗普施压美联储降息并质疑其政策独 立性，市场恐慌情绪加剧拖累美指跌至97.923新低。随后特朗普态度转向缓和， | | --- | --- | | | 明确无意解雇鲍威尔并释放贸易摩擦缓和信号，美元指数于周三反弹至99.86。周 | | | 五美元指数微涨0.07%并实现三周来首次周度上行，市场对美联储独立性担忧与政 | | | 策预期差的反复博弈，但美元中长期信用受损及流动性虹吸效应仍令其上行承压。 | | 金融属性 | 周初特朗普炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔加剧市场对货币政策政治 ...