光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 04 月 02 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，A 股市场震荡分化，Wind 全 A 日内收涨 0.37%，成交额缩量至 1.15 | | | | 万亿元，医药生物领涨，公用事业、国防军工等板块表现偏强。中证 1000 上 | | | | 涨 0.53%，中证 500 上涨 0.6%，沪深 300 上涨 0.01% ，上证 50 下跌 0.11%。 | | | | 4 月 2 日，美国即将发布"对等关税"方案，目前美股市场回调尚未包含悲 | | | | 观定价，关注相关政策对全球股市冲击。近日，金融监管总局研究提高消费 | | | | 贷款额度同时延长消费贷款期限，已有银行跟进落实。此前，呼和浩特市发 | | | | 布生育激励计划，且相关政策未来在全国其他城市推广复制的可能性较大。 | | | | 近期促销费政策多管齐下，其中生育激励本质上属于普惠性财政政策，与此 | | | 股指 | 前财政发力方向存在着根本性的不同。其一，普惠性财政政策无需居民端加 | 震荡 | | | ...

截至3月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为47.51，较上月41.98继续上升。 值得关注的是，在估值、预期均 与上月基本持平的情况下，3月市场情绪持续回升。风险评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值与上月基本持平（本月45.01，上月45.50）。本月行业间估值分化态势依然延续。目前，28个 申万一级行业中钢铁、电子、房地产、综合、国防军工、计算机、汽车和机械的行业估值已高于历史60% 分位数；但农林牧渔、有色金属、食品饮料、纺织服装、公共事业、休闲服务、建筑装饰等行业的估值低 于历史10%分位数。 市场预期也与上月基本持平（本月56.00，上月55.00）。分析师认为1-2月财政收支数据释放出多个积极信 号：收入预算目标下调后，财政增收压力显著减轻，为财政政策的灵活调整提供了更大空间；财政支出的 重点方向已从传统的基建领域转向科技、教育、社会保障等关键领域。这一转变进一步体现了"大力提振 消费"和"科技创新引领"的政策导向，有助于推动经济结构的转型升级和可持续发展。 市场情绪较上月有所上升（本月45.77，上月31.95；分数越低表示市 ...

Revenue Insights - In January-February, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Central government budget revenue fell to CNY 19,499.0 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.7 percentage points[1] - Local government budget revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reaching CNY 24,357.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points[1] Tax Contributions - Personal income tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, achieving a contribution of 2.3 percentage points, with a month-on-month improvement of 2.4 percentage points[7] - Domestic value-added tax turned from negative to positive, contributing 0.4 percentage points to tax revenue growth, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.9 percentage points[2] - Corporate income tax showed a negative contribution of -2.8 percentage points due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with a month-on-month decline of 2.7 percentage points[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Central government budget expenditure grew by 8.6% year-on-year to CNY 5,242.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 2.1 percentage points[9] - Local government budget expenditure increased by 2.7% year-on-year, totaling CNY 39,854.0 billion, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points[9] Focus on Social Welfare - Social security and employment expenditures contributed 1.2 percentage points to the growth of general public budget expenditure, with a month-on-month improvement of 0.4 percentage points[10] - The shift in fiscal expenditure towards "benefiting people's livelihoods" indicates a strategic focus on social welfare[10] Overall Fiscal Performance - General fiscal revenue and expenditure for January-February were CNY 50,237.0 billion and CNY 56,454.0 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.9% and 2.9%[15] - The expenditure growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach[15] - The government plans to implement a more active fiscal policy with a target deficit rate of around 4% for the year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending[15]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月25日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据快评 开年财政收入承压 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部发布 2025 年 1-2 月财政收支情况，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，同比-1.6%。其中税收收入 36349 亿元，同比-3.9%；非税收入 7507 亿元，同比 11%。一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元，同比 3.4%。中 央本级支出 5242 亿元，同比 8.6%；地方支出 39854 亿元，同比 2.7%。 评论： 与去年类似，开年财政收入承压，非税收入增速较 12 月大幅下滑。1-2 月收入同比-1.6%，去年实现 1.3%。 其中税收收入-3.9%，去年-3.4%。税收收入增速低于去年 12 月当月的 2.7%,显著回落；与非税收入 2024 年 ...

来源|中国证券报 更加积极的财政政策有何内涵？财政部网站3月24日发布的2024年中国财政政策执行情况报告显示，2025年财政政策要更加积极，持续用力、更加给力。 具体体现在五个方面：一是提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度；二是安排更大规模政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑；三是大力优 化支出结构、强化精准投放，更加注重惠民生、促消费、增后劲；四是持续用力防范化解重点领域风险，促进财政平稳运行、可持续发展；五是进一步增 加对地方转移支付，增强地方财力、兜牢"三保"底线。 落实落细一揽子化债政策，坚决遏制新增隐性债务 报告明确，重点做好以下工作： 要点速览： 图：财政部网站 加大民生保障力度，多渠道增加居民收入 适当提高退休人员基本养老金，提高城乡居民基础养老金和城乡居民基本医疗保险财政补助标准等 加大中央本级科技投入，全力支持关键核心技术攻关 统筹用好化债支持政策，支持地方加快偿还政府拖欠企业账款 支持全方位扩大国内需求。 大力提振消费。加大民生保障力度，多渠道增加居民收入。推进实施提振消费专项行动，加大消费品以旧换新支持力度。适当 提高退休人员基本养老金，提高城乡居民基础养老金和城乡居民基本医疗 ...

财政部发布2024年中国财政政策执行情况报告（简称"报告"）。 原文如下： 2024年中国财政政策执行情况报告 综述 报告指出，2025年财政政策要更加积极，持续用力、更加给力，具体体现在五个方面： 报告还指出，支持全方位扩大国内需求。大力提振消费。加大民生保障力度，多渠道增加居民收入。推进实施提振消费专项行动，加大消费品以旧换新支持 力度。适当提高退休人员基本养老金，提高城乡居民基础养老金和城乡居民基本医疗保险财政补助标准等。推进实施国家综合货运枢纽补链强链提升行动、 公路水路交通基础设施数字化转型升级，推动降低全社会物流成本。积极扩大有效投资。统筹用好各类政府投资资金，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节加大投资力 度。合理安排政府债券发行，加快政府债券资金预算下达，尽早形成实物工作量。 2024年是实现"十四五"规划目标任务的关键一年。面对外部压力加大、内部困难增多的严峻复杂形势，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区 各部门深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神，按照党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实 推动高质量发展，全年主要发展目标顺利完成，中国式现代化 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Context - In 2025, China plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4.0% and an additional government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan[1] - China's fiscal deficit rate is currently below the average level, with developed countries and emerging markets projected at 4.5% and 5.5% respectively for 2025, indicating that China's target is not excessively high[2] - The central government's debt burden rate is approximately 25.3%, which is relatively low compared to major global economies, providing ample room for leveraging[3] Group 2: Government Debt and Financial Assets - By the end of 2025, the total government debt is estimated to reach about 96.0 trillion yuan, approximately 66.5% of GDP, significantly lower than the debt burden rates of the US (124.1%), Japan (245.7%), and the EU (83.2%)[4] - The net financial assets of the Chinese government were recorded at 109.3 trillion yuan in 2022, supporting the capacity for large-scale borrowing[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Financing Costs - The government plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to lower financing costs, allowing for the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds at a lower cost[5] - In 2024, government interest payments accounted for 4.5% of the general public budget expenditure, and this is projected to rise to about 5.0% in 2025, still lower than the IMF's estimates for developed and emerging markets[5] Group 4: Economic Growth and Structural Transformation - The proactive fiscal policy aims to counter short-term economic challenges while promoting long-term structural transformation, with a target economic growth rate of 5% for 2025[6][7] - The shift in fiscal spending towards consumption is expected to enhance domestic demand, with household deposits reaching 152.2 trillion yuan, indicating significant consumption potential[8] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds in 2025, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement programs, reflecting a focus on boosting consumption[8] Group 5: Debt Management and Investment Space - The ongoing debt management efforts are expected to enhance transparency and reduce risks, while also freeing up investment space for key sectors such as technology and green initiatives[9][10] - The fiscal policy is designed to guide the economy towards an innovation-driven model, with a budget allocation of 1.2 trillion yuan for scientific and technological expenditures in 2025[11]

中国宏观经济报告 2025/3/6 中国宏观经济研究员 阎奕锦 010-66555831 yijin_yan@chiefgroup.com 2025 年财政政策如何发力 昨天的《政府工作报告》指出，2025 年要实施更加积极的财政政策；要统筹安排收入、 债务等各类财政资金，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力。今天财政部公布了《关于 2024 年 中央和地方预算执行情况与 2025 年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，我们将二者结合起来，综 合分析今年政府对财政政策的详细部署情况。 我国预算体系包括一般公共预算、全国政府性基金预算、国有资本经营预算和社会保 险预算，即大家所称的"四本账"。一般公共预算是主体，其收支差额对应财政赤字；政府 性基金预算是一般公共预算的重要补充，按基金项目编制，做到以收定支。国有资本经营 预算占比最低，按照收支平衡的原则编制，不列赤字，并安排资金调入一般公共预算。社 会保险基金预算按照统筹层次和社会保险项目分别编制，做到收支平衡。 2024 年财政收支呈现的特点 ➢ 非税收入支撑一般公共预算收入增速录得正值 2024 年全国一般公共预算收入 219702.12 亿元，为预算的 98.1%，比 ...

文/ 财政部党组书记、部长 蓝佛安 中央经济工作会议明确提出，2 02 5年要实施更加积极的财政政策，持续 用力、更加给力，打好政策"组合拳"。持续用力，就是要做好政策衔接， 既让已出台的政策发挥最大效能，又及时出台新的有力度的政策，根据外 部影响程度动态调整，前后贯通、接续发力。更加给力，就是要用好用足 政策空间，加强超常规逆周期调节，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有 效性，使政策力度更大、效果更好，各方面更有获得感。具体体现在五个 方面：一是提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度。二是安排更 大规模政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑。三是大力优化支出结 构、强化精准投放，更加注重惠民生、促消费、增后劲。四是持续用力防 范化解重点领域风险，促进财政平稳运行、可持续发展。五是进一步增加 对地方转移支付，增强地方财力、兜牢"三保"底线。 一、迎难而上、积极作为，2024年财政工作取得新进展新成效，有力促进完成全年经济社会发展目标任 务 2024年是实现"十四五"规划目标任务的关键一年，外部压力加大、内部困难增多。以习近平同志为核心 的党中央沉着应变、综合施策，特别是三季度打破常规、果断出手，及时推出一揽 ...

Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year[7] - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to 2024[7] Budgetary Performance in 2024 - The national general public budget revenue for 2024 was 21,970.21 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget, with a 1.3% increase from 2023[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.4% to 17,497.20 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue surged by 25.4% to 4,473.01 billion yuan[2] - General public budget expenditure reached 28,461.23 billion yuan, completing 99.7% of the budget, with a growth of 3.6%[3] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue fell by 12.2% to 62,090.40 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Total government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, completing 84.4% of the budget, with a slight increase of 0.2%[4] State-Owned Capital Management - State-owned capital operating budget revenue exceeded expectations at 6,782.88 billion yuan, achieving 114.5% of the budget, with a modest growth of 0.6%[5] - Expenditure in this budget decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan[5] Social Insurance Fund Stability - Social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.70 billion yuan, surpassing the budget by 1.2%, with a growth of 5.2%[6] - Expenditure in this fund was 106,061.28 billion yuan, completing 99.3% of the budget, reflecting a 7% increase[6]