Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. It is advisable to look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those holding long positions should continue to hold them cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4050 - 4100, support is 3900, and strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, support is 47.5, and strong support is 45.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metals prices rebounded slightly but remained in a narrow - range oscillation, reversing Tuesday's pattern. The US dollar index oscillated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, the US stock market rebounded, the European stock market rose, Bitcoin rebounded, crude oil prices fell, and the Southern China Non - ferrous Metals Index oscillated at a low level. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73%. The US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025 and higher than the expected 28,000. The September total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a decrease of 32,000. After the data, precious metals briefly declined and then returned to an upward trend. The US October ISM services PMI rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 37.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.5%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.4%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 17.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 45.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6.4%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.63 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 16.93 tons to 15150.71 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.4 tons to 656.2 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report at 20:00 on Thursday. FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech at 00:00 on Friday; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker will speak at the New York Economic Club at 01:00; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak at 05:30; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will have a fireside chat on monetary policy at 06:30; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the European Central Bank Money Market Conference at 16:00 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Price Table - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main - continuous contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings [13] 3.6 Stock - Bond - Commodity Overview - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, and 10Y US real interest rate [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, experience high - level volatility in the medium - term, and rise in a step - by - step manner in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the risk of the trade war has eased after the China - US talks; the US employment has weakened and inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US will cancel the so - called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. In terms of the monetary attribute, the path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index fluctuates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3941.30 per ounce, down $251.80 (-6.01%) from the previous day and down $26.80 (-0.68%) from the previous week. The London gold price is $3951.10 per ounce, down $74.15 (-1.84%) from the previous day and up $2.60 (0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 912.26 yuan per gram, down 3.32 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and up 1.38 yuan (0.15%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 915.68 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.26 yuan (0.36%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. [2] Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data**: The latest closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $46.90 per ounce, down $4.08 (-7.99%) from the previous day and down $0.24 (-0.52%) from the previous week. The London silver price is $47.76 per ounce, down $1.02 (-2.08%) from the previous day and up $1.32 (2.84%) from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11276 yuan per kilogram, up 38 yuan (0.34%) from the previous day and down 62 yuan (-0.55%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11242 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and down 109 yuan (-0.96%) from the previous week. There are also data on basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. [5] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 66371.78 billion US dollars, down 32.35 billion US dollars (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous value [7]. - **Other Key Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.37, up 0.01 (0.42%) from the previous day and up 0.12 (5.33%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 100.21, up 0.33 (0.34%) from the previous day and up 1.48 (1.50%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.04 (-9.76%) from the previous week; there are also data on inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, etc. [7][9][11] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided, such as the probability of the federal funds rate being in the range of 375 - 400 basis points at the December 10, 2025 meeting is 74.1%, and the probability of being in the range of 400 - 425 basis points is 25.9% [12].

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have generally rebounded, with notable increases in share prices for several companies, driven by a recent rise in spot gold prices and market expectations regarding U.S. government operations and labor data [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Silver Group (00815) increased by 3.45%, closing at 0.6 HKD [1] - China Gold International (02099) rose by 2.83%, closing at 127.2 HKD [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a 2.13% increase, closing at 30.66 HKD [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) gained 1.87%, closing at 28.36 HKD [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 1.28%, closing at 31.56 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - On November 5, spot gold rebounded from a low, briefly surpassing 3970 USD/ounce [1] - CITIC Futures noted a continued fluctuation in precious metals due to declining global risk asset sentiment [1] - UBS analysts indicated that the current pullback in the gold market is temporary, with potential for gold prices to reach 4200 USD/ounce, and in optimistic scenarios, even 4700 USD/ounce if geopolitical or market risks escalate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have generally rebounded, with notable increases in share prices for several companies in the sector, driven by a recent rise in spot gold prices and market expectations regarding U.S. government operations and economic data [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Silver Group (00815) increased by 3.45%, reaching HKD 0.6 [1] - China Gold International (02099) rose by 2.83%, reaching HKD 127.2 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a 2.13% increase, reaching HKD 30.66 [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) grew by 1.87%, reaching HKD 28.36 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 1.28%, reaching HKD 31.56 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - On November 5, spot gold rebounded from a low, briefly surpassing USD 3970 per ounce [1] - CITIC Futures noted a continued fluctuation in precious metals due to declining global risk asset sentiment [1] - UBS analysts indicated that the current pullback in the gold market is temporary, with potential for gold prices to reach USD 4200 per ounce [1] - In optimistic scenarios, if geopolitical or market risks escalate, gold prices could potentially rise to USD 4700 per ounce [1]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The U.S. government shutdown has tied the historical record, and the precious metals market continues to oscillate weakly. With the fading of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may slightly decline. The gold price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, and the silver price is also showing an oscillatory situation. The Fed's interest rate cut path has widened in December, and short-term risk aversion catalysts have weakened [1][8]. Market Analysis - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered the 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in U.S. history. The Democrats and Republicans have been deadlocked, and the Senate has failed to pass a temporary appropriation bill in 13 votes. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary will go to the Supreme Court to emphasize the importance of tariffs [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 915.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.76% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 908.92 yuan/gram, down 0.73% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,238.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -1.89% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 783,853 lots, and the open interest was 257,090 lots. The night session closed at 11,226 yuan/kilogram, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 4, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.081%, a decrease of 2.91 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.511%, a change of +0.58 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On November 4, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, the long position decreased by 5,262 lots compared to the previous day, and the short position decreased by 2,315 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 332,993 lots, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long position decreased by 2,987 lots, and the short position decreased by 365 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 783,853 lots, a change of 4.23% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.78 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,190 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 4, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 4.18 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -825.36 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.47, a change of 1.16% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 81.88, a change of -0.93% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 64,372 kilograms, a change of -4.71% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 659,480 kilograms, a change of 25.52% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to oscillate, and the Au2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 890 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is oscillating, and the Ag2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 11,000 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut has decreased, and a one - year economic and trade agreement has been reached between China and the US. The liquidity in the US inter - bank market is tight, the US credit crisis has eased, and the debt of major global countries has decreased, which may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela are difficult to resolve, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries around the world, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries around the world support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 921.02 yuan/gram, with changes compared to previous days and weeks. The trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads also had corresponding data [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: The trading volume was 54,322.00, and the open interest was 257,838.00, with changes compared to previous periods [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 213.00 yuan/ten - gram, and there were details about trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: The trading volume was 1,294,530.00, and the open interest was 360,214.00, with corresponding changes [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4143.20, and data on trading volume, open interest, and inventory were provided [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.25, and there were details about trading volume, open interest, and inventory [1] - **International Gold**: The London Gold Spot price was 17.35 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare Gold ETFs also had corresponding data [1] - **International Silver**: The London Silver Spot price was 48.96 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of relevant ETFs were provided [1] 2. Price Ratios - The price ratios of Shanghai Gold to Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Gold Spot to Shanghai Silver Spot, New York Gold Futures to New York Silver Futures, and London Gold Spot to London Silver Spot were given, with their respective changes [1] 3. Other Commodity Markets - **Crude Oil**: INE Crude Oil was 458.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent Oil was - 1.38 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX Crude Oil was 60.88 dollars/barrel [1] - **Copper**: Shanghai Copper Futures was 87,010.00 yuan/ton, and LME Copper Spot was 10,891.50 dollars/ton [1] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Shanghai Rebar was 3,106.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian Iron Ore was 802.50 yuan/ton [1] 4. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield, TIPS yield, and 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate had corresponding data [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.9334, and the exchange rates of the US dollar to the Chinese yuan, euro to the Chinese yuan were provided [1] 5. Stock Index Markets - Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index had their closing prices and changes [1] 6. Important Information - The US government shutdown is approaching the historical record, and the longer it lasts, the more cautious the Fed will be. Three Fed officials opposed the October interest rate cut, and Waller supports a December cut. There is a rare divergence within the Fed, and "Old Bond King" Gross short - sold US Treasuries [1] 7. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract at high prices. For London Gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai Gold, pay attention to the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London Silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55. For Shanghai Silver, pay attention to the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, adjusting the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, enhancing the appeal of precious metals as a safe-haven investment [1] - In October 2025, the precious metals market experienced a significant rebound, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and loose monetary policies [3] - The demand for gold reserves from global central banks remains strong, with predictions of gold prices potentially reaching $5000 per ounce in the coming year [3] Precious Metals Market Trends - The precious metals market is seeing increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and monetary easing [3] - Silver and other precious metals are also showing potential for price increases due to tightening supply-demand dynamics [3] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining a 10%-20% allocation of precious metals in portfolios to hedge against inflation risks [3] Choosing a Reliable Trading Platform - Investors face challenges such as regulatory blind spots and opaque fees when selecting precious metal trading platforms [4] - Recommended platforms should hold AA class membership from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange to ensure transparency and independent fund custody [4] - Key criteria for platform selection include regulatory background, technical support, and customer service [4] Investment Entry Guide - New investors are advised to start with small amounts and utilize demo accounts to familiarize themselves with trading mechanisms [5] - A strategy of "continuous small amounts" is recommended, investing 5%-10% of funds monthly to mitigate volatility [5] - Setting stop-loss orders and utilizing K-line chart analysis for support levels are essential decision-making tools [5] Operational Support Features - Platforms like Jinseng Precious Metals offer features such as one-click order placement to enhance efficiency for novice traders [6] Guidelines for Selecting a Legitimate Trading Platform - Investors should verify the regulatory credentials of trading platforms to ensure safety and avoid hidden fees [7] - The selection process involves checking membership numbers, evaluating trading costs, and reviewing user agreements for withdrawal timelines [7] - Establishing a robust selection framework is crucial for safeguarding investments in uncertain markets [7]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Precious Metals Fluctuate Widely and May Gradually Stabilize Subsequently [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent significant adjustments, precious metal prices have a certain demand for stabilization and repair. The support below lies in high market uncertainty and the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle. However, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, a relatively strong US dollar index, and the possibility of marginal alleviation of the US government shutdown, the short - term unilateral upward space for precious metals may be limited. In the short term, precious metal prices may gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [7]. - The underlying logic of the long - term bull market for precious metals remains solid. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price and Ratio**: Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly and then stabilized, but gold still closed down on the weekly chart. London spot gold decreased from $4111.555/oz to $4002.690/oz, a weekly decline of 2.65%. London spot silver increased slightly from $48.6235/oz to $48.6562/oz, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.66% to 80.58 [5][6]. - **ETF and CFC Holdings**: The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 decreased by 7.73 tons to 1039.2 tons, a decline of 0.74%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 decreased by 230 tons to 15190 tons, a decline of 1.49%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 339 contracts to 266749 contracts, an increase of 0.13%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 738 contracts to 52276 contracts, an increase of 1.43% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.80 tons to 87.816 tons, an increase of 0.92%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 22.05 tons to 1187.16 tons, a decrease of 1.82%. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 666 tons, an increase of 0.09%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 451.26 tons to 15006 tons, a decrease of 2.92%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 145.44 tons to 905 tons, a decrease of 13.84% [6]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index increased from 98.9417 to 99.7308, an increase of 0.80%. The US 2 - year Treasury yield increased from 3.4884% to 3.5736%, an increase of 2.44%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield increased from 4.0103% to 4.0833%, an increase of 1.82%. The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.73% to 1.81%, an increase of 4.62% [6]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. The US manufacturing and service PMI both decreased. Retail sales data showed mixed performance. Employment cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate rising and wage growth slowing down. Inflation was relatively controllable, with core commodity inflation rising and core service inflation falling [58][59][60][65][70]. - **Eurozone Data**: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data in the eurozone and the UK showed different trends [78][79]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. As of the end of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (about 2303.523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is expected to remain [87].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino - US negotiation has concluded, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The market is still skeptical about the tariff details. After the correction, precious metals rebounded. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may be appropriate to further ease policies this year. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is emerging, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, it is not certain that the Fed will further cut interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that the medium - term prices of precious metals will still be supported, while the short - term prices are still in an adjustment state. It is recommended to pay attention to the US ADP employment data to be released this Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: Due to the conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, market doubts about tariff details, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the price of US gold declined. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4013 per ounce, down 2.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3950 [6]. - **Silver**: Affected by the same factors, the price of US silver showed a weak oscillation. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.3%, closing at $48.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $49.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint The factors mentioned above led to the correction and subsequent rebound of precious metals. The market is divided on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts has been lowered. The Fed may further ease policies, but a December cut is not guaranteed. With the weakening US economic data and concerns about fiscal and Fed independence, precious metals are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the US ADP employment data on Wednesday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis of these indicators is provided in the text [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week The announced value of the US October Chicago PMI was 43.8, higher than the expected value of 42.3 and the previous value of 40.6 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - **Sino - US Negotiation**: The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year, and China will suspend relevant export - control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study specific plans [27]. - **Fed**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 - 4.0% at the October FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said that the government "shutdown" affects the economy, but the impact will reverse after the "shutdown" ends. A further interest - rate cut at the December meeting is not certain [27]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% at the interest - rate meeting. This is the third consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged. The last rate cut was in June when the euro - area inflation rate reached the 2% target [27]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory decreased by 22,053.63 kg to 1,187,159.84 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 801 kg to 87,816 kg [13][31]. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 451,258.42 kg to 15,005,532.25 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 573 kg to 665,544 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. - **Silver**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (November 3), 23:00, the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (November 5), 21:15, the change in the US October ADP employment number will be announced [38].

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Observation" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is digesting differences through fluctuations after the landing of macro hot - spots. Gold and silver are expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and its fundamentals do not support a deep correction. The market needs to correct the "expectation - reality" pricing of macro hot - spot events and digest the fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. [1][12][13][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Precious Metals Observation - **Price Fluctuation**: Precious metals fluctuated around the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's October interest - rate decision. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions in the first half of the week led to a decline in the safe - haven appeal of precious metals, triggering technical selling. After the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the decision to stop shrinking the balance sheet in December, the precious metals prices stopped falling and entered a volatile phase. [3] - **Fed's October Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% in October and will stop shrinking the balance sheet in December. The market has fully priced in the October interest - rate cut, and the focus is on the subsequent interest - rate cut path. It is considered that the Fed is still likely to cut interest rates in December due to factors such as the cooling of the US employment market and the approaching of PCE to the target. Before the end of the data vacuum period caused by the US government shutdown, the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December may fluctuate repeatedly. [3][4][6] - **Sino - US Trade Negotiations**: On October 30, Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a series of practical achievements and setting a one - year tactical easing period for Sino - US economic and trade relations. This will reduce the short - term volatility in the market caused by trade issues, but structural contradictions still exist, and future games will focus more on the fields of technology and security. [7][8] - **China's Gold Tax New Policy**: The new policy mainly affects institutional and corporate participants in the physical gold extraction (out - of - warehouse) link in the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, without adding new taxes or increasing the tax burden on individuals. Its purposes include cracking down on tax arbitrage, strengthening compliance operations, and guiding the market direction. The impact on the domestic gold price is limited. [9][10][11] - **Strategies**: Gold and silver are both expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and the current adjustment may provide a good opportunity for layout after stabilization. It is recommended to pay attention to the US Supreme Court's tariff judgment at the beginning of November and the series of macro data after the US government resumes. [12][13] 2. Operating Logic and Views - **Medium - and Long - Term Logic**: In the context of the adjustment and reshaping of the global monetary system and high macro uncertainties, gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages due to factors such as the shaking of the US dollar's reserve currency status, high inflation expectations, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. [14] - **Short - Term Logic**: The one - year buffer period of Sino - US trade negotiations reduces short - term market volatility; the US government shutdown increases market concerns about the US economy; the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the possibility of a December cut make gold more attractive in a low - interest - rate environment; and geopolitical conflicts such as those in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela still exist. [14] - **Views and Strategies**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the current adjustment is a short - term phenomenon. The market needs to digest the impact of macro events and Fed's policies. [14][15] 3. Important Data and Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to US Treasury bond interest rates, the relationship between US Treasury bond real yields and gold prices, precious metal ratios (such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio), and precious metal inventories and ETF holdings. [17][21][28][32]