Core Viewpoint - Precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, have experienced significant volatility, with silver prices recently declining after reaching new highs. The market is influenced by speculative trading and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to high premium rates for silver-themed funds [1][3][7]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - As of January 8, silver prices fell by 3.13% to $75.93 per ounce, following a peak of $83.97 per ounce on December 29, 2025, representing a cumulative increase of over 34% since December 2025 [1][3]. - The only silver-themed public fund in the domestic market, Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures (LOF), reported a premium rate of approximately 16% as of January 7, 2026, with the fund's market price significantly exceeding its net asset value [3][4]. - The fund has issued multiple warnings regarding premium risks and has suspended trading several times due to high volatility and speculative trading behavior [3][5]. Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have also reached historical highs, with COMEX gold hitting $4,584 per ounce on December 26, 2025, and London gold reaching $4,550.52 per ounce on December 29, 2025. As of January 8, 2026, gold prices have slightly decreased to $4,434.54 per ounce [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that despite the recent price corrections, the long-term upward trend for both gold and silver remains intact, with no clear price ceiling in sight [7][8]. - The market dynamics are influenced by factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, technical trading aspects, and expectations of U.S. monetary policy, which continue to support the fundamental demand for precious metals [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Responses - In response to the volatility in silver futures, the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented stricter risk control measures, including adjustments to trading fees and position limits for various contracts starting January 9, 2026 [6]. - The fund management has also reduced the subscription limits for the Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures fund, indicating a cautious approach to managing investor exposure amid high premium risks [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balance in the trend and poor operability, with a recommendation to wait and see [1] Core View of the Report - Precious metals declined today. The US ADP employment increase in December was slightly lower than expected but better than the previous value, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was better than expected and the previous value. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits, contract margin ratios, and price limit ranges for silver futures. With global geopolitical turmoil continuing at the beginning of the year and market sentiment driving sharp fluctuations, precious metals are testing resistance at previous highs. Consider participating in a breakout or waiting for volatility to decline before re - entering the market. Tonight, focus on the US weekly initial jobless claims data [1] Other Key Points - The US Secretary of State will meet with Denmark next week to discuss Greenland issues [2] - Trump believes that the military budget in 2027 should be $1.5 trillion instead of $1 trillion [2] - China's gold reserves at the end of December were reported at 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold purchases [2]

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月08日16时41分 今日贵金属承压回落，沪金主力收跌0.73%，沪银主力收跌5.90%，铂金主力收跌6.72%，钯金主力收涨跌3.57%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，特朗普政府 正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国去年12月 "小非农"温和复苏。美国11月职位空缺降至14个月新低，表明劳动力需求减弱。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年 初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美 联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或 到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯 金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the market in a relatively balanced state and poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals declined today. The US ADP employment increase in December was slightly lower than expected but better than the previous value, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was better than expected and the previous value. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits, contract trading margin ratios, and price limit ranges for silver futures [1]. - Global geopolitical turmoil continues at the beginning of the year, and market sentiment leads to sharp volatility. Precious metals are testing resistance at previous highs. Consider participating in a breakout or waiting for volatility to decline before re - entering the market. Tonight, focus on the US weekly initial jobless claims data [1] 3. Other Key Information from the Report - The US Secretary of State will meet with Denmark next week to discuss Greenland issues [2] - Trump believes that the military budget in 2027 should be $1.5 trillion instead of $1 trillion [2] - China's gold reserves at the end of December were reported at 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces compared to the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold purchases [2]

1月8日，在前一交易日下跌近1%后，周四亚市黄金价格企稳，在地缘政治避险情绪有所降温后，市场 正等待年度大宗商品指数再平衡以及美国关键经济数据的发布。金价接近每盎司4455美元，被动型追踪 基金将于周四开始抛售贵金属期货，以匹配指数新的权重要求。由于过去一年黄金和白银价格的飙升， 预计此次抛售规模将高于往常。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 黄金在周三一度下跌1.7%后在美国数据公布后收复部分失地，白银周三下跌3.8%，鉴于其近期的波动 性，极易受到大幅抛售的影响。花旗集团估计，此次重新平衡可能导致约68亿美元的白银期货被抛售， 相当于纽约商品交易所未平仓合约的约12%。 ▲ATFX图 由于地缘政治因素叠加市场数据喜忧参半影响市场整体风险偏好，周三的美股市场因为特朗普的言论而 从纪录高位突然掉头，创纪录的涨势暂停，标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数刷新高位后转为收跌， 反倒是科技股重新获得关注而带动纳指反弹。 特朗普表示将禁止机构投资者购买独栋住宅后，黑石集团和其他房地产相关公司的股价暴跌。包括霍顿 公司、普尔特集团和莱纳公司在内的房屋建筑商股价均出现下滑。股市风险偏好受到打压，间接为贵金 属提供部分支撑。 此外 ...

Report on Precious Metals Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Gold: As funds quickly exit the market before the Spring Festival, the price has corrected. The market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical tensions in South America. Uncertainties are expected to keep precious metals highly volatile in January. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held [1]. - Silver: Long - position funds have significantly increased their holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving up the price. However, high prices may suppress industrial demand. The "irrational" price increase driven by short - term funds is expected to end, and attention should be paid to the risk of passive reduction due to the re - balancing of global commodity indices. A light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: With strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and relatively undervalued prices compared to gold, value re - evaluation is being driven by funds. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term speculation has weakened, and with a strong external market, long positions are recommended on the 20 - day line [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: Most domestic and foreign precious metal futures prices declined on January 7, 2026. For example, the AU2602 contract fell by 0.60% to 998.90 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold主力合约 dropped by 0.86% to 4467.10 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot precious metal prices also declined. London gold fell by 0.87% to 4456.07 dollars/ounce, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D decreased by 0.27% to 999.20 yuan/gram [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 and silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 increased, with historical 1 - year quantiles of 95.10% and 98.30% respectively [1]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio rose by 3.26% to 57.29, while the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio decreased by 2.89% to 1.26 [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.7% to 4.15%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.14% to 98.74 [1]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97653, and the silver inventory dropped by 4.82% to 553429 kilograms [1]. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spreads Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Basis**: On January 7, 2026, the TS basis was 1.3387, the TF basis was 1.5487, the T basis was 1.4478, and the TL basis was 1.5565. Their changes and historical quantiles are also reported [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: There are various inter - delivery spreads for different Treasury bond futures contracts, such as the TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS's "current quarter - next quarter" spread was - 0.0300 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also inter - variety spreads, like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For instance, the TS - TF spread was - 3.1680 [2]. Report on Stock Index Futures Spreads Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The IF spot - futures spread was - 23.67, the IH was - 1.32, the IC was - 72.48, and the IM was - 146.22 on January 7, 2026, along with their changes and historical quantiles [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: There are multiple inter - delivery spreads for different stock index futures contracts. For example, the IF's "next month - current month" spread was - 4772.80 [4]. - **Inter - variety Ratios**: There are various inter - variety ratios, such as the ratio of the CSI 500 to the SSE 300, which was 1.6487, and its change and historical quantiles are also given [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 15.11% to 1312.71, and the SCFIS (US West route) rose by 28.24% to 1107.32. The Shanghai export container freight rates also showed increases for different routes [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Most container shipping futures prices declined on January 7, 2026. For example, the EC2602 contract fell by 5.00% to 1779.1. The basis of the main contract was - 220.3 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply remained stable, with a 0.00% change. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased by 18.50%, while the port calls increased by 5.83%. The monthly export amount increased by 8.23% [7]. - **Overseas Economy**: The Eurozone's composite PMI decreased by 2.46% to 51.50, and the US manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.62% to 47.90 [7].

Core Insights - The silver market is experiencing a surge in demand, with prices rising from 3-4 yuan per gram to around 20 yuan per gram since 2025, leading to increased interest in silver bars as an investment [1][3] - Retailers are reporting a significant increase in customer inquiries and orders for silver bars, with many items being pre-ordered due to limited availability [3] - The volatility of silver prices is highlighted, with recent fluctuations causing concerns among investors regarding the timing of purchases and potential losses [4] Market Trends - The demand for silver bars has intensified, with customers needing to pre-order due to high demand and low stock availability [1][3] - Retailers are now requiring full payment upfront for silver bar orders, a shift from the previous practice of only requiring a deposit, reflecting the urgency and volatility in the market [3] - Older customers are increasingly purchasing silver bars as a form of investment, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards precious metals [3] Price Volatility - The silver market is characterized by significant price fluctuations, with recent data showing a drop of over 6% in international silver prices, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies [4] - The price of silver is noted to be more volatile compared to gold, which poses additional risks for investors [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: With the rapid exit of pre - holiday funds, the gold market has adjusted. In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as US economic data's impact on Fed policy and South American geopolitical situations. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held [1] - Silver: Long - position funds have increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price up. Global inventory shortages may not be truly resolved, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After the CME and other exchanges raise margins, the "irrational" upward trend driven by short - term funds is expected to end. In high - volatility markets, a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and undervalued prices relative to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue their upward trend in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, with reduced speculative sentiment and narrowing fluctuations, it is advisable to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the AU2602 gold contract closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day; the AG2604 silver contract closed at 19290 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83%; the PT2606 platinum contract closed at 598.50 yuan/gram, down 2.97%; the PD2606 palladium contract closed at 475.95 yuan/gram, up 0.86% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold main contract closed at $4467.10, down 0.86%; the COMEX silver main contract closed at $77.98, down 3.99%; the NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2290.40 per ounce, down 6.74%; the NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1817.00, down 3.96% [1] Spot Prices - On January 7, 2026, the London gold price was $4456.07, down 0.87%; the London silver price was $78.28, down 3.56%; the spot platinum price was $2297.55 per ounce, down 2.73%; the spot palladium price was $1755.73, down 0.97%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was 999.20 yuan/gram, down 0.27%; the silver T + D was 19365 yuan/kilogram, down 0.67%; the platinum 9995 was 606 yuan/gram, up 5.56% [1] Basis - As of January 7, 2026, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 0.30, up 3.36 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 95.10%; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 75, up 32, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 98.30%; the basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 11.03, down 0.47, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 68.60%; the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.30, up 0.35, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 91.50% [1] Price Ratios - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 57.29, up 3.26% from the previous day; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 51.78, up 0.23%. The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 2.89%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 3.79% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - On January 7, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down 0.7% from the previous day; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged. The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88%, down 1.6%. The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9935, up 0.18% [1] Inventory and Positions - As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653, down 0.05%; the silver inventory was 553,429 kilograms, down 4.82%. The COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 36,403,452; the silver inventory was 445,737,395, down 0.77%. The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19,329,396; the silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,185,964, up 0.38%. The SPDR Gold ETF position remained at 1067; the SLV Silver ETF position was 16,100, down 0.11% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a dispute between a buyer, Liu, and a jewelry store, Da Xin Gold, regarding a canceled order for silver plate material, highlighting issues of deposit agreements and market volatility in precious metals [2][27]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Liu ordered a silver plate worth over 319,000 yuan and paid a deposit of over 180,000 yuan [4][39]. - The weight of the silver plate was 15,758.7 grams [39]. - Liu converted the value of 180 grams of gold he sold to the store into a deposit for the silver order [10][41]. Group 2: Dispute and Cancellation - The store's owner, Hu, insisted on cash payment rather than accepting the deposit as valid [12][41]. - The order was canceled by the store after Hu transferred the deposit amount back to Liu, claiming that the deposit was not valid due to the lack of full payment [14][45]. - Hu stated that the cancellation was due to Liu's previous failure to complete a transaction, which affected their willingness to proceed with the current order [25][52]. Group 3: Market Context - The article mentions that silver prices experienced a significant increase of nearly 180% by the end of 2025, indicating a high volatility in the precious metals market [27][56]. - Analysts have warned of accumulating risks of price corrections in the precious metals sector [27].

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 8 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.65%报 4467.1 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 3.77%报 77.98 美 元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.31%报 1002.2 元/克，沪银收跌 2.99%报 19020 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 7 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上个交易日维持不 变，当前持仓量为 1067.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日减少 18.33 吨，当前持仓量为 16099.83 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率 ...