点击注册小程序 报告摘要 事件： 7月18日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年上半年工业和信息化发展情况。工业和信息化部总 工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行 业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 点评： 一、化工行业稳增长、反内卷政策即将出台，引导行业有序发展 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 我国化工行业于上世纪80年代进入快速发展期，部分上世纪建设的化工装置设备已经运行30年甚至40年以上， 存在设计建设标准和制造水平低、长周期运行后腐蚀减薄、安全保障能力下降等问题，化工老旧装置设备安全 风险进入集中暴露期。我国高度重视设备老化管理，2024年，应急管理部、工信部、国资委、市 ...

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/21 周五工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，"反内卷"及供给侧优化预期驱 动大宗商品整体偏强运行。尿素短期或跟随大宗商品偏强运行。中期而言，需求端有贸易商在陆续进行出口 提货，库存短期或难以大幅累库。工厂待发订单及库存压力不大，现货报价小幅探涨，对尿素价格形成支 撑，尤其是伴随出口通道的逐步放开，或有阶段性的反弹。但农业需求逐渐减弱，下半年基本面继续承压。 综上，尿素处在下有支撑上有压制的格局下，09合约预计震荡偏强。 【利多解读 】 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15 ...

2025 年 07 月 21 日 尿素：短期偏强运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 1. 2025 年 7 月 16 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 89.55 万吨，较上周减少 7.22 万吨，环比减少 7.46%。本周期国内尿素企业库存继续下降，近期尿素出口订单继续执行，部分尿素企业库存 加速下降。国内尿素需求走弱，价格呈现下降，部分工厂出货放缓库存增加。虽然局部尿素 库存涨跌不一，但整体库存仍以下降为主。整体而言，本周尿素成交连续多日活跃，短期一 批次出口仍在陆续提货，预计下周尿素生产企业库存呈现小幅去库的格局。（国泰君安期货尿 素晨报、隆众资讯） 2. 周五公开信息表示工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，"反 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,745 | 1,743 | 2 | | | | 结算价 | （元/ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. In the medium - term, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber face significant pressure, and the increase in supply may restrict price elasticity and upside potential [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price was 11,720 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 90,365 lots (up 20,978 lots), the open interest was 17,214 lots (down 1,197 lots), and the trading volume was 529.173 million yuan (up 129.436 million yuan) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 70 yuan (down 100 yuan), the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 25 yuan (unchanged). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) increased by 50 yuan, 70 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 50 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) increased by 150 yuan and 100 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) was 11,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) were 12,100 yuan/ton and 10,900 yuan/ton respectively, up 150 yuan and 100 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene operating rate was 66.3354%, up 1.05% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged. The butadiene profit was - 482 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. [Industry News] - As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price and the spot and futures market once rose significantly, with the inventory of sample production enterprises decreasing and the inventory of sample trading enterprises increasing slightly [1]. - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. The reasons are: the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities; the rubber sector is generally strong, with the raw material price in Thailand stabilizing and the cup - lump price rebounding slightly, and there are many weather - related speculation points for natural rubber; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the explicit inventory of synthetic rubber decreasing slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the low arrival volume of butadiene in July leading to tight port supplies [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamentals, market news, and macro - economic factors [2][5]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some in a range - bound state, and others showing weakness. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is tight with some domestic plants reducing loads. Demand may increase due to the upcoming PTA plant start - up. It is expected to be unilaterally strong with a strategy of rolling long on the spread. Suggest following the long PX short EB/EG position [5][12]. - **PTA**: Caught in a game between weak downstream demand and cost. It is expected to be in a sideways market, with the 9 - 1 spread operating in the 20 - 70 range. PTA is likely to maintain a small inventory build - up [12][13]. - **MEG**: In a sideways market with a reduction in the long position on the 9 - 1 spread. Supply is relatively loose, and the price upside is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is expected to be strong with a sideways trend. Factors include potential typhoons in Hainan, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia affecting tapping, and strong cost support [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center is moving up in the short - term due to policy expectations, a strong rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. However, there is pressure on the supply side in the medium - term [19][21]. Asphalt - It is expected to be in a range - bound state. Weekly production decreased slightly, plant inventory decreased, and social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - In a range - bound state. Supply pressure is increasing with more production capacity coming online in the third quarter, while demand support is weak [38][39]. PP - Spot prices are sideways with light trading. Futures have little support for the spot market, and downstream demand is weak [43][44]. Caustic Soda - There are expectations for the peak season. Although in the off - season now with limited price increase power, cost support is strong due to weak liquid chlorine, and the 10 - 1 spread can be long [46][47]. Pulp - It is expected to be strong with a sideways trend. Futures prices are rising, and the market shows a pattern of strong futures and weak spot, with high port inventory and weak demand [50][51]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. There are small price adjustments in different regions, and the overall shipment is average [54][55]. Methanol - It is expected to be strong. The domestic supply has shrunk in the short - term, and it may follow the overall strength of commodities. However, there is negative feedback from low MTO profits [57][60]. Urea - It is expected to be strong in the short - term. Inventory is decreasing, and it may follow the overall strength of commodities. But there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - It is expected to be strong in the short - term due to anti - involution sentiment. However, it is still in a high - production, high - profit, high - inventory pattern and is mainly a short - position target [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The device is adjusting, production is high, and downstream demand is stable with low - price procurement [68][69]. LPG - It is expected to be weak with a sideways trend. There are multiple PDH plant maintenance plans, and Saudi CP expectations are falling [72][81]. PVC - It is expected to be strong in the short - term but with pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and there is pressure from new production capacity [84][85]. Fuel Oil - The rebound continues, with a short - term sideways trend. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak compared to high - sulfur fuel oil, and the high - low sulfur spread has slightly decreased [89]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a high - level sideways state. It is recommended to hold a small short position on the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 spreads [91].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price center of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is moving up. Butadiene is expected to continue a slight upward trend next week, while cis - butadiene rubber is also showing a strong performance. Mid - term, the fundamentals of both face pressure. The increase in supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may limit price elasticity and upside space [3][5]. - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Synthetic Rubber Summary - **Supply**: In late July, the production of cis - butadiene rubber is at the break - even point. Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin's cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted this week, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart in the middle and late next week. After the capacity of the previously restarted plants is released, domestic supply will increase significantly [3]. - **Demand**: For rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week. Order volume has increased in the middle of the month, which is expected to drive overall production slightly. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 600 - 1000 yuan/ton, and substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is moving up and showing a strong performance. The reasons include the expected optimization of the supply - side of bulk commodities, the strong performance of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals. Mid - term, the supply increase may limit price elasticity and upside space [3]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,200 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to rise gradually. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is strong, with resistance at 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton and support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR price difference is in a short - term shock range [3]. 3.2 Weekly Butadiene Summary - **Supply**: Some plants stopped for maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in domestic butadiene supply. This period's output was 100,400 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous period [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is at a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: During the period from July 10 - 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.25% [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, butadiene is driven by the rebound of bulk commodities and downstream rigid procurement. Spot trading has improved this week, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to continue the upward trend next week. The overall arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. Mid - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. After the macro - sentiment eases, it is expected to enter a weak pattern again [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. - **Supply - Side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate has fluctuated due to plant maintenance. Some major plants have carried out maintenance this year, affecting the overall supply [14][16]. - **Net Imports**: Relevant data shows the situation of butadiene imports and exports, and import profit is affected by factors such as market price and import cost [17]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of related enterprises is expanding. Some new plants have been put into operation in 2024 - 2025, and the operating rate of some plants is high, with a high demand for butadiene [18][23]. - **ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased in recent years. The operating rate of ABS has fluctuated, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [24][27][28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene includes enterprise inventory and port inventory. Recently, port inventory has decreased significantly, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly [30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply - Output**: The weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China shows certain fluctuations. The operating status of each plant affects overall output [35]. - **Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber have changed over time, which are affected by factors such as raw material prices and production efficiency [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years, which is related to domestic and international market supply - demand relationships [40][41]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory. Recently, enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [44][45]. - **Demand - Tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, as well as the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires, show certain fluctuations, which are related to market demand and production plans [48][49].

供应 国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年07月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡偏强 风险点 • 出口政策调整、出口配额增加、煤炭价格大幅波动、海外能源价格大幅波动、海外地缘政治风险； Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 01 资料来源：钢联，国泰君安期货研究 尿素基差 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 01-01 01-11 01-21 01-31 02-10 02-20 03-02 03-12 03-22 04-01 04-11 04-21 05-01 05-11 05-21 05-31 06-10 06-20 06-30 07-10 07-20 07-30 08-09 08-19 08-29 09-08 09-18 09-28 10-08 10-18 10-28 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the implementation of ultra-long-term special government bonds will accelerate equipment upgrades in the petrochemical industry, optimizing the supply side and clearing out outdated capacity, benefiting leading enterprises with financial and technological advantages [1] - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while overseas, rising raw material costs and capacity shocks in Asia have led to shutdowns and capacity exits among European and American chemical companies [1] - In the short term, geopolitical tensions increase uncertainty in overseas chemical supply; however, in the long term, China's chemical industry has a clear competitive advantage, rapidly filling gaps in the international supply chain and potentially reshaping the global chemical industry landscape [1] Group 2 - The leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit from a virtuous cycle in the domestic supply chain, driven by enhanced R&D and innovation capabilities of leading enterprises in the consumer electronics field, stimulating high-end development in materials [1] - The overall self-sufficiency rate of new chemical materials is approximately 56%, indicating that the industry is entering a period of accelerated development opportunities [1] - The chemical leader ETF tracks a segmented chemical index compiled by China Securities Index Co., which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the chemical raw materials and products sectors, focusing on various segments of the chemical industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "anti-involution" measures being implemented across various industries in China, particularly in steel, photovoltaic, and cement sectors, aimed at addressing excessive competition and promoting high-quality development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Actions - Major photovoltaic glass companies have collectively decided to reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate "involution" competition [1]. - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to further promote "anti-involution" and stabilize growth in the cement industry [1]. - Some steel mills have received notifications for production cuts, indicating a proactive approach to managing supply and demand [1]. Group 2: Market Response - The market has responded positively to the proactive production cuts across various industries, with analysts noting that the photovoltaic sector is facing weakening demand and price pressures [1]. - Open-source securities research indicates that prices for multiple products in the photovoltaic industry have fallen below cash cost levels, necessitating the production cuts to improve supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The recent "anti-involution" measures are part of a broader governmental strategy to regulate excessive competition, with the Central Economic Committee emphasizing the need for orderly exit of outdated production capacity [2][3]. - The new revisions to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law aim to address "involution" competition, indicating a shift towards legal regulation of market practices [2]. - The focus of the current "anti-involution" initiative is on enhancing policy and market mechanisms, with an emphasis on industry self-discipline and the promotion of high-quality development through technological upgrades [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current round of "anti-involution" is expected to lead to a shift from low-cost, homogeneous competition to high-end, differentiated competition in manufacturing [3]. - There is an anticipation of more targeted "anti-involution" policies being introduced, which could provide a turning point for supply-side adjustments in industries like photovoltaic, steel, and cement [3].