Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for May 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected 6.0% and the previous value of 6.1% [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, below the expected 4.1% and the previous value of 4.0% [3] - The decline in industrial added value is attributed to fewer working days and a lag in production due to tariff adjustments, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries like textiles [3] - The service sector's production index grew by 6.2%, indicating a slight improvement from April [3] Consumption Growth Challenges - The significant rise in retail sales is driven by holiday consumption and promotional activities, reaching a new high in nearly a year [4] - Automotive sales increased by 11.2% year-on-year, but overall sales revenue growth is limited due to pricing factors [4] - Future consumption may struggle to maintain current levels due to policy adjustments and potential overconsumption [4] Investment Needs Policy Support - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, with manufacturing investment decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year [4] - Ten out of twelve sub-sectors in manufacturing saw a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in transportation equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting [4] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 9.3%, with local debt pressures limiting project funding [5] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline, with sales in major cities dropping and funding sources for real estate companies decreasing by 10.5% year-on-year [5] Fixed Income Research - The overall issuance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a range of -7 basis points to 6 basis points [7] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds seeing an increase in net financing [7] - The secondary market for credit bonds has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with most varieties experiencing growth [7] - The credit spreads for medium and short-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds have generally narrowed [7] Industry Research - The metal industry is experiencing traditional seasonal characteristics, with demand expected to decline as summer approaches [15] - Steel prices are expected to remain weak due to increasing inventory pressures [15] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, but lack upward momentum in the short term [15] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions and geopolitical factors, with a need to monitor macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations [15] - The lithium market faces oversupply issues, leading to expected price weakness [15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The credit demand is weak, but the growth rate of social financing is stable. The new loans in May 2025 decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The growth rate of M2 was stable month-on-month, and the growth rate of M1 rebounded. The social financing in May increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing was stable. It is expected that the new loans in 2025 will increase slightly year-on-year, the net financing of government bonds will expand significantly year-on-year, the social financing will increase significantly year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing may rise first and then fall, with an estimated year-end growth rate of about 8.3%. Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Credit Demand Analysis - In May 2025, the new loans decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The new individual loans were +540 million, including -208 million in short-term individual loans and +746 million in medium - and long - term individual loans, with a slight year-on-year increase. The new short - term corporate loans were +1.1 billion, the new medium - and long - term corporate loans were +3.3 billion, and the bill financing was +746 million. Due to low capacity utilization in manufacturing, weak real estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space, credit demand may be weak in the long term [2]. M1 and M2 Analysis - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and customer reserves of non - bank payment institutions on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of May 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 108.9 trillion yuan. In May, the growth rate of the new - caliber M1 was 2.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and the growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The growth rates of both the new and old M1 calibers have significantly rebounded since Q4 2024, reflecting an improvement in economic activity [2]. Social Financing Analysis - In May 2025, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 0.22 trillion yuan, mainly from the net financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy was 59.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.37 billion yuan; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills were - 11.62 billion yuan; the net financing of corporate bonds was +14.96 billion yuan; the net financing of government bonds was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.67 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing at the end of May was 8.7%, the same as at the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year [2]. Bond Investment Suggestion - Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored. The reduction of long - term time deposit interest rates of major banks in May 2025 is beneficial to credit bonds. The reduction of deposit interest rates is expected to promote the growth of wealth management scale, and the wealth management scale may increase significantly in July, further compressing credit spreads. In 2025, bond market investment needs to be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond investment opportunities and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2].

截至2025年6月13日 10:08，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.01%， 冲击5连涨。最新价报105.95元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月12日，公司债ETF近1年累计上涨 2.14%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.13%，成交2435.34万元。拉长时间看，截至6月12日，公司债ETF近1周日均成交23.80亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达182.76亿元，创成立以来新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.73亿份，创近1月新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，公司债ETF近5天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得15.38亿元净流入，合计"吸金"27.32亿元，日均净流入达5.46亿元。 截至2025年6月13日 10:07，国债ETF5至10年(511020)上涨0.01%，最新价报117.46元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月12日，国债ETF5至10年近3月累计上涨 1.41%。 流动性方面，国债ETF5至10年盘中换手0.08%，成交119.58万元。拉长时间看，截至6月12日，国债ETF5至10年近1周日均成交8.69亿元。 规模方面，国债ETF5至10年最新规模达14.31 ...

Group 1 - The Tianhong Credit Bond ETF (159398) experienced a slight increase of 0.01% as of June 12, with a trading volume of nearly 55.6 million yuan, following a significant trading volume of over 6.7 billion yuan on June 11 [1] - The Tianhong Credit Bond ETF was officially included in the repurchase pledge library on June 6, with a latest conversion rate of 0.6 according to data from China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation [1] - As of June 11, the Tianhong Credit Bond ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds for 9 days, totaling 1.425 billion yuan, with a latest circulating scale of 7.13 billion yuan, setting a new historical high [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities suggests that the credit bond market continues to exhibit a volatile mindset, recommending a focus on coupon rates as a stable choice [2] - The recommendation includes shifting towards short to medium-term credit bonds and seeking yield compression opportunities in high-grade long-term bonds [2] - Institutions with unstable liabilities are advised to focus on short-duration investments, particularly in city investment bonds with maturities of 2 years or less, while stable institutions can explore high-grade bonds with maturities of 3-5 years [2]

天风证券指出，利差压缩到这个位置，信用又到了一个新的临界点： 截至2025年6月10日 11:08，信用债ETF博时(159396)上涨0.02%，最新价报100.84元。流动性方面，信用债ETF博时盘中换手27.38%，成交23.79亿元，市场交 投活跃。 从资金净流入方面来看，信用债ETF博时近7天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得7.02亿元净流入，合计"吸金"13.98亿元，日均净流入达2.00亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。信用债ETF博时连续16天获杠杆资金净买入，最新融资余额达55.00元。 从收益能力看，截至2025年6月9日，信用债ETF博时自成立以来，最长连涨月数为3个月，涨跌月数比为3/1，月盈利百分比为75.00%，月盈利概率为 67.11%，历史持有3个月盈利概率为100.00%。 截至2025年6月6日，信用债ETF博时近1个月夏普比率为1.01，排名可比基金前2/4，同等风险下收益更高。 回撤方面，截至2025年6月9日，信用债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤0.89%，相对基准回撤0.10%。回撤后修复天数为26天。 首先，短信用的利差已经极致压缩，博弈空间已相对有限，考虑到央行 ...

截至2025年6月10日 10:32，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.02%，最新价报105.91元。拉长时间看，截至2025年6月9日，公司债ETF近1年累计上涨2.06%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手11.8%，成交20.69亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至6月9日，公司债ETF近1周日均成交19.85亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达175.24亿元，创成立以来新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.66亿份，创近1月新高。 虽然关税大降，但当前央行刻意宽松，与Q1判若两人，短期来看资金面无担忧，预计资金利率低位低波动。当前，我们对利率债中性，对信用偏多，看收 益率2%以上信用债利差压缩。 10Y国债不仅看资金面，更看经济预期。全A已新高，上证也涨回去了，港股银行屡创新高，恒生科技也涨回去大部分。我们看经济企稳，芬太尼关税也有 下调的可能，认为2025年利率债没有趋势性机会，如履薄冰。建议关注5Y信用债机会，攻守兼备，三五年定期存款利率低是支撑。重点跟踪后续央行是否 会收紧资金面。 平安基金债券ETF三剑客成员包括公司债ETF(511030)、国开债券ETF(159651)和国债 ...

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"24 淮建 01"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "25 深铁 03"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 04"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净 价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"23 中行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期 限(年) | 估值价格 偏离(%) | 估值净价 (元) | 估值收益 | 当日估值 收益(%) | 票面利率 (%) | 隐含评 级 | 主体评 级 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 率偏离 | | | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | | | | | 24 淮建 01 | 4.28 | -0.25 | 101.55 | 6.20 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the bond market has been characterized by fluctuations, while the stock market has also seen slight adjustments, leading to increased pressure on the yields of wealth management products [1] Group 1: Product Overview - The product "Ningyin Wealth Management Ningxin Fixed Income Daily Open 8" is primarily focused on fixed income investments, with a minimum holding period of 300 days [8] - The product mainly invests in AA-rated and above credit bonds in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, reflecting a common preference among local commercial banks for regional credit bonds, particularly urban investment bonds [4][16] - The product's net value has shown greater sensitivity to the bond market, experiencing slight declines during the bond market adjustments in February and March, indicating a lower allocation to true equity assets [4][10] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The product scored 38 points for yield, 96 points for risk control, and 22 points for risk-adjusted return, ranking 94th, 124th, and 131st respectively among 227 similar products, with an overall score of 60, outperforming 39.21% of its peers [6][10] - The annualized yield over the past month is 4.47%, with the product outperforming 72.25% of similar products, while the annualized yield since inception is 4.49%, beating 63.44% of similar products [13][20] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 0.16%, indicating relatively good risk control, and the comprehensive fee rate is 0.8% [14][20] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The product employs a flexible asset allocation strategy, with a maximum of 20% allocated to non-fixed income assets, while maintaining over 80% in fixed income investments [10][20] - The underlying assets primarily consist of fixed income securities, with equity investments made indirectly through asset management products, although specific allocations remain undisclosed [16][20] - The product has slightly reduced its bond investment ratio while increasing allocations to equity and public funds in the first quarter of this year [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the credit bond ETF from Bosera is experiencing a strong performance due to favorable market conditions, particularly in light of recent deposit rate cuts [3][4] - The credit bond ETF has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a recent turnover of 9.59% and a daily average transaction volume of 3.96 billion yuan over the past week [3] - The fund's scale has grown by 1.187 billion yuan in the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - The fund has attracted net inflows of 1.286 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [4] - The credit bond ETF has maintained a positive performance record, with a monthly profit percentage of 66.67% and a historical three-month profit probability of 100% [4] - The fund's management fee is 0.15%, and its tracking error is the lowest among comparable funds at 0.009% [4]

第 382 期 2025-05-27 焦点关注 交易所债项扩募新规步入实践 两笔公司债拟于本周五续发 河南省完成发行144.76亿元地方债 宏观动态 央行开展4480亿元7天期逆回购操作 5月27日，央行开展4480亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率持平于1.40%。今日有3570亿元逆回购到期， 实现净投放910亿元。 区域热点 河南拟发行130.58亿元再融资一般债 5月27日，河南省财政厅披露2025年河南省政府一般债券（三期）信息文件。 2025年河南省政府一般债券（三期）拟发行总额为130.5821亿元，期限为7年期，品种为记账式固定利 率附息债券。募集资金用于偿还2018年河南省政府一般债券（三期）的部分本金。 5月26日，中信证券和招商证券相继公告对其存量公司债进行续发行，规模分别为不超过30亿元和不超 过20亿元，标志着通过债券续发优化融资结构的模式正式落地。 此前，5月21日，上交所发布《上海证券交易所公司债券和资产支持证券发行上市挂牌业务指南（2025 年5月修订）》，试点公司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募业务，发行人可以使用有效期内的公开发行 注册文件或者非公开发行无异议函向上交所申请发行备案 ...