Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, driven by the emergence of Nipah virus cases in India, which has heightened interest in vaccines and innovative drugs, alongside the continuous expansion of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in overseas markets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 26, the pharmaceutical sector saw a notable increase in capital inflow, with market sentiment becoming more active due to multiple factors, including marginal improvements in industry fundamentals and supportive policies [1] - The emergence of overseas pandemic events, such as Nipah virus infections, has reignited market focus on vaccines, antiviral drugs, and public health defense systems, reinforcing long-term investment confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics [1] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - Recent institutional insights indicate that structural opportunities within the pharmaceutical sector are becoming clearer, with the strong momentum of innovative drugs continuing to be a core driver of the sector [1] - By January 2026, several companies, including Yilian Biotech and Rongchang Biotech, have achieved licensing agreements, validating the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs, especially in cutting-edge technology areas like ADC, bispecific antibodies, and small nucleic acids [1] Group 3: Sector Developments - Progress in specific subfields is enhancing confidence in the sector, with small nucleic acid drugs showing positive clinical data in chronic hepatitis B and metabolic diseases, attracting accelerated investments from leading domestic and international companies [2] - Breakthroughs in oral immunomodulatory drugs targeting new pathways provide new treatment options for difficult diseases such as psoriasis and ulcerative colitis, warranting ongoing monitoring of related domestic companies' clinical advancements [2] - The GLP-1 class products maintain high demand in the weight loss and diabetes markets, with a gradually forming domestic pricing system and rapid overseas market expansion opening up further growth opportunities [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions suggest investors focus on the following main lines for pharmaceutical sector investments: - Concentrate on cutting-edge areas of innovative drugs, particularly in the accelerating overseas expansion of bispecific antibodies, ADC, and small nucleic acids, such as YK Pharma and Sunlight Novo [3] - Capitalize on innovative breakthroughs in tumor therapeutic vaccines [3] - Invest in the CXO and research service industry chain that supports innovative research and development, such as Yinos and Zhaoyan New Drug [3] - Pay attention to traditional Chinese medicine and pharmacy sectors with overseas potential or high dividend defensive attributes, such as Zoli Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao, and Yifeng Pharmacy [3]

Core Insights - The A-share biopharmaceutical companies are expected to deliver innovative results in 2025, benefiting from industry recovery, overseas market expansion, and favorable pharmaceutical policies [2] - Over 90 A-share biopharmaceutical companies have released performance forecasts for 2025, with 53 companies expected to be profitable [2] - Among the profit forecasts, 14 companies anticipate a net profit increase of over 100%, while 10 companies expect to turn losses into profits [3][2] Group 1: Performance Growth Drivers - Sales volume growth and internal cost reduction are key factors for the significant profit increases among the companies [4] - Shanghai Yizhong leads with a projected net profit increase of 760.18% to 903.54%, expecting a net profit of 60 million to 70 million yuan in 2025 due to its core product being included in the national medical insurance directory [4] - Yuheng Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit of 350 million to 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.37% to 80.44%, driven by steady sales growth of its products [4] - Nawei Technology expects a net profit of 128 million to 145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.51% to 75.03%, focusing on market strategies in key sectors [4][5] Group 2: International Market Expansion - International business is a significant growth driver for biopharmaceutical companies [6] - WuXi AppTec, a leading CXO company, forecasts a revenue of 45.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15.84%, and a net profit of 19.151 billion yuan, a 102.65% increase [6] - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.96% to 95.23%, attributed to steady growth in domestic and international revenues [6] Group 3: Innovation and Recovery - Several innovative drug companies are entering a recovery phase, with many turning losses into profits or significantly reducing losses [8] - BeiGene expects a full-year operating profit for 2025, with revenue projections between 36.2 billion and 38.1 billion yuan, reflecting an upward adjustment from previous estimates [8] - DiZhe Pharmaceutical anticipates a revenue of 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 122.28%, with a reduced net loss of 770 million yuan [9]

医药股，集体异动！ 今日（1月26日）午后，医药股大幅走强，生物疫苗、体外诊断、肝炎等方向领涨。其中，凯普生物直线拉升 至20%涨停，用时不足1分钟；海王生物、科华生物等股票也陆续涨停。 印度突然出现尼帕病毒疫情，截至目前，印度已有5例确诊病例，其中包括医护人员。这一消息可能刺激了医 药股的上涨。另外，年初多个创新药BD交易落地，中国创新药出海趋势向好。有券商研究机构表示，随着更 多国产创新药的出海、医保谈判的常态化以及产业链的成熟，创新药赛道有望持续成为资金配置的核心方向。 医药股异动 午后，医药股突然拉升，凯普生物直线涨停，海王生物、科华生物、迈克生物、金迪克等股票也陆续封死涨停 板。此前，华兰疫苗、鲁抗医药、达安基因等个股已涨停。截至下午收盘，生物疫苗、流感指数涨幅超过 3%，体外诊断、肝炎指数涨超2%。 | (分时 1分钟 更多) | | 壳价 叠加 重播 统计 | 画线 F10 标记 -自选 返回 | | 凯普生物 300639 R | | 医疗保健 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7.25 | 凯普生物 分时 成交量 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a downturn, particularly in the innovative drug sector, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) declining by 1.5% on January 26, despite a positive buying attitude reflected in high premiums [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) has seen a cumulative decline of 3.2% over the past week, with over 236 million yuan in funds being used to buy on dips [1]. - Major stocks in the sector are experiencing widespread declines, with leading companies such as CSPC Pharmaceutical falling by 3%, and Innovent Biologics dropping nearly 4% [1]. Group 2: Industry Transactions - Several innovative drug business development (BD) transactions have been completed at the beginning of the year, indicating a positive trend for Chinese innovative drugs going overseas. Key transactions include: 1. Rongchang Biologics granting AbbVie overseas rights for RC148 (PD-1/VEGF) dual antibody, receiving a $650 million upfront payment and up to $4.95 billion in milestone payments [3]. 2. Haisco granting overseas rights for HSK39004 (PDE3/4) to AirNexis, with an upfront payment of $108 million and up to $955 million in milestone payments [3]. 3. Zai Lab granting AbbVie overseas rights for ZG006 (CD3xDLL3xDLL3 tri-antibody), receiving a $100 million upfront payment and milestone payments totaling $1.135 billion [3]. 4. Yilian Biologics granting Roche overseas rights for YL201 (B7-H3ADC), with upfront and near-term milestone payments totaling $570 million [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider core assets in innovative drugs during market dips, with a focus on the high elasticity T+0 tool, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880), and its associated funds [3]. - The index for the ETF (Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index) has three unique advantages: 1. 100% purity, covering only innovative drug R&D companies [3]. 2. A significant concentration of leading companies, with the top ten innovative drug leaders accounting for over 73% of the index [4]. 3. Better risk control through forced de-weighting of less liquid constituent stocks [5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a downturn, with the innovative drug sector declining again, as evidenced by the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) falling by 1.5% [1][6] - Last week, the ETF accumulated a total decline of 3.2%, with over 236 million yuan in funds being used to buy on dips [1][6] - Major stocks in the sector are generally down, including CSPC Pharmaceutical Group down 3%, CanSino Biologics down nearly 4%, and China Biologic Products and Innovent Biologics both down over 2% [1][6] Group 2 - Multiple innovative drug business development (BD) transactions have been completed at the beginning of the year, indicating a positive trend for Chinese innovative drugs going overseas [8] - Key transactions include: 1) Rongchang Biologics granting AbbVie overseas rights for RC148 (PD-1/VEGF) dual antibody, receiving a $650 million upfront payment and up to $4.95 billion in milestone payments [8] 2) Haisco granting overseas rights for HSK39004 (PDE3/4) to AirNexis, receiving a $108 million upfront payment and up to $955 million in milestone payments [8] 3) Zai Lab granting AbbVie overseas rights for ZG006 (CD3xDLL3xDLL3 tri-antibody), receiving a $100 million upfront payment and milestone payments totaling $1.135 billion [8] 4) Yilian Biologics granting Roche overseas rights for YL201 (B7-H3ADC), with upfront and milestone payments reaching $570 million [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (520880) and its associated funds are highlighted as high-elasticity investment tools, with the underlying index (Hang Seng Stock Connect Innovative Drug Select Index) offering three unique advantages [9] - The ETF has a 100% purity, excluding CXO, and fully covers innovative drug R&D companies [9] - The top ten innovative drug leaders account for over 73% of the ETF, showcasing the strength of the innovative drug sector [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 26, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side variables, particularly the operating rates of raw material drugs, and highlights the potential for price recovery in the antibiotic market due to changes in competition and supply dynamics [2] - Multi-departmental policy support is enhancing the value positioning of pharmacies, transforming them from mere sales points to comprehensive health service platforms [3] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with significant licensing deals and the need for continuous clinical data validation to support long-term investment confidence [4] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [5] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming in China, with significant market potential anticipated for weight loss and diabetes treatments [6] - The report highlights the market value of oral autoimmune drugs, with promising clinical trial results for new treatments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points in the last week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [20] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector index increased by 4.98% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.21 percentage points [37] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51, above the five-year historical average of 31.06 [43] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of the blood products industry and the potential of GLP-1 drugs [45] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the promotion of high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector and the approval of numerous medical devices by the National Medical Products Administration [46][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 26, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side variables, particularly the operating rates of raw material drugs, and highlights the potential for price recovery in the antibiotic market due to changes in competition and supply dynamics [2] - Multi-departmental policy support is enhancing the value positioning of pharmacies, transforming them from mere sales points to comprehensive health service platforms [3] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with significant licensing deals and the need for continuous clinical data validation to support long-term investment confidence [4] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [5] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming in China, with expectations for market growth driven by a large patient population [6] - The report highlights the market value of oral autoimmune drugs, with promising clinical trial results for new treatments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points in the last week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [20] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector index increased by 4.98% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.21 percentage points [37] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51, above the five-year historical average of 31.06 [43] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of the blood products industry and the impact of policies on inhalation formulations [45] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the approval of numerous medical device registrations and the promotion of high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector [46][48]

招银国际表示，在2025年BD交易爆发式增长基础上，2026年初已连续有多项授权落地，反映行业出海 景气度持续高企，未来中国创新药有望凭借早期临床数据获得更高交易价值。展望2026年，创新药出海 趋势长期或将延续，后续应重点关注已出海管线的临床进展与数据兑现的核心催化。 据悉，恒生创新药ETF（520500）通过QDII机制投资31家港股创新药龙头企业，覆盖行业研发前沿与商 业化核心力量，主要聚焦于生物制药、化学制药及原料药等中上游创新药核心领域，集结了一众研发实 力强劲、具备发展潜力的创新药行业翘楚。 尽管今日早盘（26/1/26）创新药板块有所回调，但市场交投依然保持活跃。目前全市场仅有的跟踪恒 生创新药指数的产品——恒生创新药ETF（520500）2026年以来日均成交额达6.24亿元，基金规模、份 额分别达21.02亿元、12.74亿份，显示资金关注度较高。 行业层面，中国创新药出海势头强劲。医药魔方NextPharma数据库显示，2025年中国创新药共完成157 起BD出海授权交易，交易总额为1356.55亿美元，其中首付款70亿美元，这三项关键数据均创下历史新 高。值得关注的是，在2025年全球L ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in their stock prices over the next 12 months [29]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 9.2% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index, which rose by 5.6% [1]. - The pharmaceutical industry has seen significant growth, driven by strong institutional investor interest and the ongoing trend of innovative drugs going global [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical progress and data validation for pipelines that have already gone overseas, suggesting that this trend will continue in the long term [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a robust trend in the outbound licensing of innovative drugs, with multiple business development (BD) transactions occurring at the start of 2026, reflecting a high level of activity in the sector [4]. - Key transactions include significant upfront and milestone payments for various drugs, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [4]. Company Ratings and Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for several companies, including: - **Sangfor Technologies (1530 HK)**: Market cap of $7,598.4 million, target price of $37.58, with a 54% upside potential [2]. - **Gusongtang (2273 HK)**: Market cap of $963.3 million, target price of $44.95, with a 46% upside potential [2]. - **WuXi AppTec (2268 HK)**: Market cap of $10,551.0 million, target price of $88.00, with a 28% upside potential [2]. - **China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK)**: Market cap of $15,951.4 million, target price of $9.40, with a 42% upside potential [2]. Market Trends - The report notes that the competition in the PD-(L)1/VEGF space is intensifying, with several companies advancing their clinical trials and aiming for first-line indications [4]. - The report suggests that the efficiency and breadth of clinical trials, as well as the richness of combination therapies, will be critical factors in determining success in this competitive landscape [4].

尽管今日早盘（26/1/26）创新药板块有所回调，但市场交投依然保持活跃。目前全市场仅有的跟踪恒 生创新药指数的产品——恒生创新药ETF（520500）2026年以来日均成交额达6.24亿元，基金规模、份 额分别达21.02亿元、12.74亿份，显示资金关注度较高。 （数据来源：交易所、Wind，数据截至26/1/23） 行业层面，中国创新药出海势头强劲。医药魔方NextPharma数据库显示，2025年中国创新药共完成157 起BD出海授权交易，交易总额为1356.55亿美元，其中首付款70亿美元，这三项关键数据均创下历史新 高。值得关注的是，在2025年全球License-out交易总额前十名中，有八项来自中国；总交易额超百亿美 元的4起交易中，中国占据3席。2025年中国创新药BD交易总额已占全球49%，首次超越美国。 （消息来源：36氪-狂揽1357亿美元！谁是2025中国创新药出海"最贵"十单？-26/1/26） 政策环境亦提供有力支持。商务部等九部门联合发布《关于促进药品零售行业高质量发展的意见》，明 确提出优化药品营销体系，鼓励创新药进入零售药店销售渠道，助力市场拓展。 （商务部-商务部等9部门 ...