Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth for FY2024 and Q1 2025, driven by rising prices of refrigerants and improved industry dynamics [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 779 million yuan, up 178.40% [1]. - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.10% [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.17% [1]. Product Pricing and Sales - The average selling price of refrigerants increased significantly, with FY2024 average price at 26,100 yuan/ton, up 28.17% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 average price at 37,400 yuan/ton, up 57% year-on-year [2]. - The external sales volume for refrigerants in FY2024 was 125,400 tons, a slight increase of 1.7% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a decrease in sales volume to 27,100 tons, down 16.1% year-on-year [2]. Industry Trends - The refrigerant market is experiencing upward pricing trends due to supply constraints and improved competitive dynamics, with expectations for continued price increases into 2025 [3]. - As of April 28, 2025, the domestic market prices for key refrigerants R22, R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 9.1%, 12.8%, 7.1%, and 10.6% respectively since January 2, 2025 [3]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively enhancing its integrated supply chain, with several projects underway, including lithium hexafluorophosphate production and fluoropolymer projects, which are in various stages of completion [4]. - The company aims to leverage its position as a leading refrigerant manufacturer to capitalize on the ongoing upcycle in the refrigerant market, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to grow significantly [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in performance, benefiting from the improved market conditions for refrigerants [1] - The revenue for 2024 reached 24.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.556 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.52% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The main drivers of revenue growth in 2024 were the expansion of the consolidated reporting scope, increased production, and higher prices. The three main business segments—refrigerants, petrochemical materials, and basic chemical products—continued to contribute significantly [2] - Refrigerant production for the year was 591,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.12%, with external sales of 353,000 tons, up 22.61% [2] - Petrochemical materials production was 607,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.14%, with external sales of 522,100 tons, up 45.70% [2] - Basic chemical products and others produced 3.0402 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.90%, with external sales of 1.7852 million tons, up 12.03% [2] Cost Management - The company reduced its sales expense ratio primarily due to decreased leasing costs. The sales/management/financial/R&D expense ratios changed by -0.18%/+0.06%/+0.28%/-0.54% year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating the production of new projects and enhancing its global HFCs quota advantage to establish a leading position in the refrigerant market. It has successfully completed the acquisition of Feiyuan Chemical, integrating its annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of HFCs and related facilities [4] - The company has also added new products in fine chemicals, significantly increasing the business proportion of fluorinated refrigerants and fine chemical products [4] - The annual production capacity of 85,700 tons of organic alcohol has been successfully put into operation, steadily increasing the domestic market share of organic alcohol products [4] Profit Forecast - The company’s profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 projected at 3.714 billion, 4.919 billion, and 6.050 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 18.5, 14.0, and 11.4 times for the respective years [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, particularly benefiting from the ongoing upcycle in refrigerants, with significant growth expected in the coming years [7]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 29.36 billion yuan, 35.23 billion yuan, and 40.51 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 3.30 billion yuan, 4.20 billion yuan, and 4.90 billion yuan [7][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4%, followed by a recovery with 18% growth in 2024 [15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.22 yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong growth outlook [15]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 72.6 in 2023 to 20.8 in 2025, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [15]. Market Position - The company has solidified its market position as a leading player in the fluorochemical sector, particularly in the production of fluorinated refrigerants and chlorinated raw materials, with a global leadership status [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant increase in sales and production across key product lines, particularly in refrigerants, where average prices rose over 50% [7].

Core Viewpoint - ST Lianchuang is focusing on its operational performance and future growth strategies despite facing challenges such as administrative penalties and stock market fluctuations [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 161 million yuan, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.0164 million yuan, up 132.25% year-on-year [10]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 2.0795 million yuan, an increase of 110.23% year-on-year [10]. - The company's debt ratio stood at 18.29%, with investment income of 2.2727 million yuan and financial expenses of -9,700 yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 13.8% [10]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Development - The company is actively working on the development of solid-state battery technology in collaboration with Zhongshan University, currently in the small-scale testing and process design phase [2][5]. - The company has a production capacity of 10,000 tons for the fourth-generation refrigerants, with another 10,000 tons under construction, aiming to capture market opportunities due to regulatory changes in the industry [4][5]. - The company plans to increase revenue through market expansion and technological innovation, focusing on new customer acquisition and application areas [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Challenges - The company is aware of the significant demand for power batteries driven by emerging technologies such as robots, flying cars, and new energy vehicles, and is positioning itself to accelerate solid-state battery production [2][5]. - The management is addressing the decline in revenue, which was 6.9 billion yuan in 2024, down 11% from 2023, by implementing specific market expansion plans [2][5]. - The company is committed to maintaining compliance and improving governance to protect the interests of small investors amid market volatility [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [8][9]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for refrigerants driven by summer heat, with active trading in a low inventory context [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in refrigerant prices, with R32 reaching 48,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2][24]. - The implementation of the Montreal Protocol's national plan is expected to tighten supply and enhance the long-term outlook for refrigerant prices, particularly for R22 and R32 [4][56]. Summary by Sections 1. April Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of April 28, 2025, the fluorochemical index stood at 1,232.89 points, down 2.60% from March, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 0.63 percentage points [1][16]. 2. April Refrigerant Market Review 2.1 Refrigerant Price and Spread Performance - Prices for refrigerants have shown an upward trend, with R32 and R410a experiencing significant month-on-month increases of 14% and 9% respectively in March [22][24]. - The report notes that R22 prices are stable at 36,000 yuan/ton, while R134a remains at 47,000 yuan/ton [24]. 2.2 Refrigerant Export Data Tracking - In Q1 2025, R32 exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while R22 exports decreased by 38.4% [31]. - March saw a significant rebound in export volumes, with R22 and R32 experiencing month-on-month growth of 165% and 150% respectively [31][32]. 2.3 Major Refrigerant Operating Rates and Production Data Tracking - The report indicates that production quotas for R22 have been reduced by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting tighter supply constraints [58]. 3. Implementation of the Montreal Protocol National Plan - The national plan aims to reduce HCFCs production and usage by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively by 2025, with a complete phase-out by 2030 [4][56]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing commitment to reducing HFCs, with a target of a 10% reduction by 2029 [4][56]. 4. Air Conditioning/Automobile/Refrigerator Production and Export Data Tracking 4.1 Air Conditioning - The report notes a continuous year-on-year increase in air conditioning production for Q2 2025, with domestic production expected to rise significantly [5][65]. 5. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as having strong profit growth prospects, with Juhua Co. expected to achieve a net profit of 1.52 yuan per share in 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 160.64%, driven by rising refrigerant prices [3]. - The average price of refrigerant products increased by 58.08% compared to the same period last year, contributing to the company's profitability [3]. - The report anticipates continued price increases for refrigerants in Q2 2025, with long-term contracts for R32 and R410a rising by 14.77% and 14.42% respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 58.00 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.09 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 15.49%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.45 percentage points [3]. - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 28.42%, up by 13.67 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 1.41 yuan for 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times at the current stock price [4]. - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 24.46 billion yuan, 2025E at 25.47 billion yuan, 2026E at 27.81 billion yuan, and 2027E at 30.61 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with the company's performance expected to continue its strong growth [6] - The profitability of fluoropolymer materials is gradually recovering, driven by increased production and improved market conditions [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year [4][7] - The company's Q4 2024 results showed operating revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, up 385% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and a net profit of 97 million yuan, up 161.7% year-on-year [10] Product Segment Performance - In the fluorocarbon chemical segment, the company generated revenue of 2.447 billion yuan in 2024, with an average gross margin of 20.37%, up 12.62 percentage points year-on-year [7][9] - The fluoropolymer materials segment achieved revenue of 1.581 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [7][9] - The chemical raw materials segment saw a revenue decline to 436 million yuan in 2024, with a significant drop in average selling price [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 5.012 billion yuan, 5.433 billion yuan, and 5.853 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 491 million yuan, 589 million yuan, and 680 million yuan [11][13] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the next three years are 20, 17, and 15 times [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by the high demand for refrigerants, with a year-on-year growth of 161% [1] - The refrigerant market is expected to remain strong, supported by demand from downstream sectors such as air conditioning and automotive [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 41 billion, 53 billion, and 61 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 28.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.7 percentage points [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.52 RMB, with a projected growth in EPS for the following years [5] Market Performance - The average price of refrigerants has increased, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a prices rising by 9%, 13%, 7%, and 11% respectively since the beginning of the year [4] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 68.47 billion RMB, with a target price set at 31.92 RMB [9] Segment Performance - The refrigerant segment saw a year-on-year sales increase of 4%, despite a seasonal decline in Q1 [2] - The fluoropolymer segment faced temporary pressure, with a year-on-year sales decline of 7% [2] - The basic chemical products segment benefited from improved caustic soda prices, leading to a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year [3]

投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 42.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 47.09/25.80 | | 总市值(亿元) | 259.88 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 259.88 | | 总股本(亿股) | 6.10 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 6.10 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 51.76 | 股价走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 三美股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 业绩预计同比高增，2025 开门 红酝酿主升行情—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.1.24 《前三季度业绩创历史新高，制冷剂 行情持续向上—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.30 基础化工/化学制品 三美股份（603379.SH） 制冷剂主升行情徐徐展开，2025 年拟进行中期分红 2025 年 04 月 29 日 《2024H1 利润同比增长 195.83%，向 上趋势或将延续—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.28 | 金益腾（分析师 ...

风险提示：1.三代制冷剂政策变化；2.下游空调、汽车产量不及预期；3.原材料价格波动；4.新项目进展 不及预期等。 制冷剂景气向上趋势不改，2025 年价格延续增长趋势。配额制背景下，制冷剂供给受限，行业生态、 竞争秩序得到明显改善。同时，国家"家电以旧换新"政策驱动国内需求增长、全球南方国家城镇化和消 费升级步伐加快驱动国际市场需求持续增长，制冷剂供需状况持续改善，景气向上趋势不改，2025 年 制冷剂延续涨价趋势。据百川盈孚数据，截至2025 年4 月28 日，公司主营制冷剂产品 R22/R32/R125/R134a 国内市场均价较2025 年1 月2日分别提升9.1%/12.8%/7.1%/10.6%至 3.60/4.85/4.50/4.70 万元/吨，价差较2025 年1 月2 日分别提升9.0%/21.9%/7.2%/7.1%至2.62/3.53/2.70/3.02 万元/吨，主流制冷剂盈利能力大幅提升。同时据海关总署数据，1/2/3月份制冷剂R32 出口均价分别为 3.87/3.99/3.97 万元/吨，内外贸价格逐步同频，公司业绩释放确定性增强。 投资建议：供给强约束叠加行业格局集中背景下，二、 ...