丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨巨化股份（600160.SH） [Table_Title] 业绩同比实现大幅增长，制冷剂价值进一步凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年上半年业绩预告，预计 2025H1 实现归母净利润为 19.7-21.3 亿元，同比增 长 136%到 155%，预计 2025H1 实现扣非净利润 19.5-21.1 亿元，同比增长 146%到 166%。 其中预计 2025Q2 单季度实现归母净利润 11.6-13.2 亿元，同比增长 121.6%-152.1%,预计 2025Q2 单季度实现扣非净利润 11.6-13.2 亿元，同比增长 129.5%-161.2%。 分析师及联系人 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 马太 王呈 %% %% %% %% 巨化股份（600160.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 业绩同比实现大幅增长，制冷剂价值进一步凸 2] 显 [T ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 风险提示： 下游需求不及预期，技术迭代风险，产品价格大幅波动。 报告摘要 事件： 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告，2025 年上半年度，公司预计实现归母净利润为 19.7-21.3 亿元，同比 增长 136%-155%；其中，Q2 单季度公司预计实现归母净利润 11.6-13.2 亿元，同比增长 122%-152%，环比增 长44%-63%。 点评： 2025 上半年制冷剂高景气延续，公司业绩同比高增 随着二代制冷剂（HCFCs）配额进一步削减，三代制冷剂（HFCs）自 2024 年起实施生产配额制，制冷剂供给 端持续收紧，叠加下游需求旺盛，制冷剂行业景气度持续提升，公司制冷剂相关产品盈利能力显著提升。2025 年 H1，公司氟化工原料均价 3629 元/吨，同比+10%，量 18.8 万吨，同比+12%；制冷剂均价 39372 元/吨，同 比+62%，销量 15.5 吨，同比-4%；含氟聚合物材料均价 38372 元/吨，同比-2.80%，销量 2.3 万吨，同比 +7%；含氟精细化学品均价 63064 元/吨，同比+21%，销量 2945 吨，同比+4% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The refrigerant industry continues to experience high demand, leading to significant growth in the company's performance. The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97-2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136%-155% [1][2]. - The supply of refrigerants is tightening due to the reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024. This, combined with strong downstream demand, is expected to sustain the industry's upward trend [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the average price of fluorochemical raw materials is expected to be 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10% year-on-year, with sales volume of 188,000 tons, up 12% year-on-year. The average price of refrigerants is projected at 39,372 yuan/ton, up 62% year-on-year, with sales volume of 155,000 tons, down 4% year-on-year [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.191 billion yuan (up 11%), 5.141 billion yuan (up 10%), and 6.286 billion yuan (up 8%) respectively, translating to EPS of 1.55 yuan, 1.90 yuan, and 2.33 yuan [4][5]. Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the production and use quotas for ozone-depleting substances and HFCs for 2025, indicating a reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas by 32,800 tons and third-generation refrigerant quotas exceeding expectations. This orderly reduction in supply, coupled with policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, is expected to support steady growth in demand [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 28.197 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.26%. The net profit margin is expected to be 14.9%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.62% [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained boom, significantly boosting the company's performance. The company is expected to achieve a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [5][8] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will continue to grow due to the high demand for high-end fluorinated new materials and the implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quota scheme, which is expected to enhance profitability further [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 27.55 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 14.42 to 29.00 yuan. The total share capital is approximately 2,699.75 million shares, and the circulating market value is 74.378 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155%. The second quarter is projected to show a net profit of 1.16 to 1.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122% to 152% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44% to 63% [5][6] - The refrigerant sales volume for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 154,600 tons, with an average price of 39,372.45 yuan per ton, leading to a revenue of 6.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.09% [6] Market Trends - The report indicates that the refrigerant market is entering a favorable cycle driven by quota systems and increasing downstream demand. The average prices for various refrigerants have shown significant increases, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a prices rising by -12%, 23%, 14%, and 22% respectively [6] - The non-refrigerant business also shows stable growth, with fluorochemical raw material sales volume increasing by 11.72% year-on-year, contributing to a revenue of 681 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.16% [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26.99 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan, and 34.20 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 10.3%, 11.3%, and 13.8% [8][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.407 billion yuan, 5.092 billion yuan, and 5.830 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 124.9%, 15.5%, and 14.5% respectively [8][11]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 07 月 10 日 巨化股份 (600160) ——制冷剂价格环比继续大幅上扬，全球"特许经营权" 属性价值凸显 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 24,462 | 5,800 | 27,858 | 30,820 | 33,822 | | 同比增长率（%） | 18.4 | 6.1 | 13.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,960 | 809 | 4,556 | 5,823 | 7,568 | | 同比增长率（%） | 107.7 | 160.6 | 132.5 | 27.8 | 30.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.73 | 0.30 | 1.69 | 2.16 | 2.80 | | 毛利率（%） | 17.5 | 28.4 | 26.7 | 30.2 | 33.5 | | ROE ...

? 公司预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益 的净利润为 25,000.00 万元到 27,500.00 万元，与上年同期相比，将增加 14,387.16 万元到 16,887.16 万元，同比增长 135.56%到 159.12%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 证券代码：605020 证券简称：永和股份 公告编号：2025-060 债券代码：111007 债券简称：永和转债 浙江永和制冷股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 本期业绩预告适用于实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比上升 50%以上 的情形。 ? 浙江永和制冷股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实现 归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 25,500.00 万元到 28,000.00 万元，与上年同期相比， 将增加 14,231.89 万元到 16,731.89 万元，同比增长 126.30%到 148.49%。 （二）产品结构进一步优化。公司坚持以"强链、延链、补链"为 ...

买入（维持） 巨化股份（600160）2025 年半年度业绩预增点评 公 司 点 评 制冷剂高景气延续，公司上半年归母净利大幅预增 136%-155% 2025 年 7 月 9 日 投资要点： 基础化工行业 S0340518040001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： luliting@dgzq.com.cn | 主要数据 月 | 2025 | 年 | 7 | 8 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 28.79 | | | 总市值（亿元） | | | | 777.26 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | 2699.75 | | | 流通股本（百万股）2699.75 | | | | | | | ROE（TTM） | | | | 13.20% | | | 12 月最高价（元） | | | | 29.00 | | | 12 月最低价（元） | | | | 14.19 | | 股价走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [1][7]. - The long-term outlook for refrigerants is positive, with the company positioned to benefit as a leader in the fluorochemical industry [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 29.355 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [2][11]. - Estimated net profit for 2025 is 3.943 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 101% compared to the previous year [8][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.7 times [8][12]. Production and Sales Performance - The company's main products, including fluorinated refrigerants, have shown stable growth in production and sales, contributing to increased gross margins and profit [7]. - Revenue from refrigerants is expected to reach 6.086 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant price increase of 61.88% year-on-year [7]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the price of refrigerants has been recovering due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants and strong downstream demand [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment as global temperatures rise, leading to increased demand for refrigerants [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals and performance relative to the market index [1]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is expected to experience a price uptrend due to supply constraints from production quotas and increasing demand driven by the growth in household air conditioning and automotive sectors [5][9]. - Recent adjustments in production quotas for HFC-32 and HFC-134a show slight increases, while HFC-125's quota has decreased, reflecting a stable yet limited supply environment [6][7][8]. - The demand for refrigerants is projected to rise as the production of household air conditioners and automobiles continues to grow, with significant increases in production volumes noted in recent years [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The refrigerant prices have shown significant increases, with R32 priced at 53,000 RMB/ton (+3.92% month-on-month), R134a at 49,500 RMB/ton (+2.06%), while R22 and R125 have seen slight declines or stability [5]. - The production quotas for HFC-32 and HFC-134a are being utilized at high levels, with HFC-32's production accounting for 54.38% of its adjusted quota and HFC-134a at 50.28% [5]. Market Demand - The domestic air conditioning market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 5.40% from 2014 to 2024, with production expected to reach 266 million units by 2024 [9]. - The automotive sector is also rebounding, with a projected production of 31.56 million vehicles in 2024, contributing to increased demand for refrigerants in automotive air conditioning systems [9]. Investment Focus - Key companies to watch in the refrigerant sector include Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Chemical, Haohua Technology, Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources, which are highlighted for their potential growth and investment opportunities [9][10].

（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 事实上，当前制冷剂行业格局正面临重塑。根据《基加利修正案》实施的配额管理，氟化工行业正 从"自由竞争"转向"配额管制"，巨化股份凭借较高的配额占比获得比较显著的优势。巨化股份2024年年 报透露，公司二代制冷剂（HCFCs）生产配额为3.89万吨，占全国26.10%，其内用配额占全国31.28%， 为国内第一；第三代氟制冷剂（HFCs）生产配额29.98万吨，占全国同类品种合计份额的39.6%。 而受供需变化影响，去年四季度以来，国内制冷剂价格就出现持续拉升的局面，今年以来制冷剂价格更 是呈现全面上涨趋势。百川盈孚数据显示，截至6月5日，第三代主流制冷剂R32国内均价突破5.1万元/ 吨，年内涨幅达19%，同比增长42%；行业毛利润高达3.5万元/吨，较去年同期增加超1万元/吨。 受益于亮眼业绩预期及行业高景气度，巨化股份年内股价涨幅达20.4%，并于7月2日盘中创下29.29元/ 股的历史新高。截至7月8日收盘，公司股价报28.79元/股，日内上涨0.95%，仍处于历史高位附近。 在配额政策推动和市场需求提振的双重驱动下，国内氟化工龙头企业巨化股份（600160.SH）或将交 ...