Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is "oscillation", while there are no ratings for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of asphalt has stabilized and rebounded, but the market's internal upward drive is insufficient. Although the growth of supply is limited, the improvement of rigid demand is also weak due to weather and capital factors. The market trading atmosphere is average, and speculative demand is weak. If oil prices continue to rebound, the futures market will be boosted, but the sustainability is questionable [2] Market Analysis - On August 25, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,512 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 191,301 lots, down 17,115 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 169,612 lots, up 30,160 lots from the previous day [1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt are: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,450 - 3,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,480 - 3,500 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The asphalt spot prices in North China increased yesterday, while those in Shandong decreased. The prices in other regions remained generally stable. Recently, crude oil prices have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and the BU futures market has followed suit, with support at the lower end of the market beginning to emerge [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated seventh reduction in refined oil prices for the year, with a projected decrease of 205 yuan per ton, translating to a drop of approximately 0.16 to 0.19 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [1][3][5]. Oil Price Adjustment Overview - The 17th round of oil price adjustments will commence on August 26, with the current oil price change rate at -4.18% [1][3]. - Year-to-date, there have been 25 oil price adjustments, with 16 completed, resulting in a pattern of "6 increases, 6 decreases, and 4 stasis" [5]. Current Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that international crude oil prices are fluctuating between 63 to 66 yuan per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and the uncertain outlook of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The overall sentiment in the market is mixed, with some analysts suggesting that geopolitical risks may still support oil prices, while others highlight pressures from OPEC+ production increases and inflation concerns [5][6]. Future Outlook - There is a potential for a technical rebound in oil prices due to strong demand and unexpected declines in IEA oil inventories, despite ongoing supply pressures [5][6]. - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ decisions regarding future production policies, particularly the exit from current production cuts [6].

Group 1 - Domestic oil prices are set to decrease for the seventh time this year, with savings of approximately 0.14 to 0.15 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel, translating to a reduction of about 7 yuan for a full tank of gas [1][2] - The recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are attributed to mixed factors, including reduced geopolitical supply risks due to European tensions and renewed uncertainty regarding peace talks, leading to a negative change rate of -4.09% as of August 25 [1] - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for September 9, 2025, with expectations of a potential increase in retail fuel prices based on the current upward trend in crude oil prices [2] Group 2 - For private vehicles, the estimated fuel cost reduction is around 10 yuan per vehicle for those running 2000 kilometers monthly, while heavy-duty trucks could see a decrease of approximately 266 yuan under similar conditions [2] - The continuous rebound in crude oil prices is viewed as a correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding previous negotiations, with the market now focusing on ongoing European issues [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have rebounded, with Brent and WTI prices reaching 67.22 and 63.66 USD per barrel respectively as of August 22, 2025, supported by declining US crude and gasoline inventories [2][8] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a positive performance, with the sector rising by 2.92% compared to the 4.18% increase in the CSI 300 index [9][12] - The report highlights the increase in US crude oil production to 13.38 million barrels per day, with a slight increase in refinery processing rates [52][63] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of August 22, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at 67.22 USD per barrel, up 1.37 USD (+2.08%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at 63.66 USD per barrel, up 0.86 USD (+1.37%) [28] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 370, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms total 133, down by 2 [35] Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 55,000 barrels per day from the previous week [52] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US is 411, down by 1 from the previous week [52] Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing averaged 17.208 million barrels per day, an increase of 28,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 96.60%, up 0.2 percentage points [63] Crude Oil Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, total US crude oil inventories stood at 824 million barrels, a decrease of 5.791 million barrels (-0.70%) from the previous week [71] Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were 84.44, 77.76, and 82.95 USD per barrel respectively as of August 22, 2025 [95][99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil stabilized, oscillated, and rebounded. The US imposed sanctions on a batch of Iranian - related enterprises, increasing geopolitical concerns. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation still takes time, and the uncertainties during this period drive up oil prices. - Some Fed governors' speeches reduce the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The market continues to focus on Powell's speech. Goldman Sachs believes Powell's speech on Friday won't clearly indicate a September rate cut but may convey support for it. - After technical repair, oil prices still face significant fluctuations. Short - term, it is expected to run with high - volatility oscillations, operating in the range of 488 - 498. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Some Fed presidents are lukewarm about the possibility of a rate cut next month. The US may double tariffs on India. Angola's July oil production fell below 1 million barrels per day for the first time in two and a half years [3]. - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.78 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was 33.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels. Cushing's inventory increased by 419,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.767 million barrels as of August 21 [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, it will operate in the 488 - 498 range. Long - term, hold long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Three Fed officials cooled the expectation of a rate cut next month. The market is waiting for Powell's speech. Currently, the interest - rate futures price implies a 70.4% probability of a September rate cut and about a 47 - basis - point rate cut for the year [5]. - Putin requires Ukraine to abandon the entire Donbass region, give up the ambition to join NATO, remain neutral, and ban Western troops from entering the country. The Russia - US summit mainly discussed the compromise plan for the Ukraine issue [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposed secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period was extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased by 0.83, 0.81, 4.70, and 0.98 respectively, with increases of 1.24%, 1.29%, 0.98%, and 1.43% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil increased by 0.65, 0.81, 0.96, 0.88, and 1.05 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 1.29%, 1.39%, 1.37%, and 1.52% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased by 25,087 [3][15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased [3][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Oil prices are fluctuating around the US - Russia meeting, with a slight rebound due to oversold recovery, but pressured by high South American oil production. PX supply has recovered with new plant launches and restarts, and it has strong bottom support due to low inventory. Its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to PTA demand, but PTA downstream开工 has a strong downward expectation [2]. - PTA supply has a mix of restarts and maintenance. Spot prices rose slightly with the market, but with low processing fees, new plant launch expectations on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's hard to have a trend - upward market. It will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are stable. Supply - side starts are at a low level, with local shortages of spot goods. Downstream procurement is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.96/barrel (up 0.13%), Brent at $66.63/barrel (up 0.06%), naphtha at $568/ton (down 0.44%), isomeric xylene at $690.5/ton (up 0.15%), and PX CFR China Main Port at $833.67/ton (up 0.24%) [1]. - **PTA**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE TA main contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), settled at 4,718 yuan/ton (up 0.21%); spot PTA in China was 4,698 yuan/ton (up 0.58%); CCFEI PTA domestic index was 4,705 yuan/ton (up 0.21%), and the foreign index was $625/ton (up 0.48%) on August 11 [1]. - **PX**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PX main contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.80%), settled at 6,808 yuan/ton (up 0.56%); domestic PX spot was 6,708 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) on August 11 [1]. - **PR**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PR main contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.51%), settled at 5,954 yuan/ton (up 0.27%); polyester bottle - chip in East China and South China markets remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton and 5,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 12, 2025, CCFEI polyester fiber DTY index was 8,625 yuan/ton (up 0.29%), POY remained stable at 7,125 yuan/ton, FDY68D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), FDY150D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), short - fiber was 6,495 yuan/ton (up 0.23%), polyester chip was 5,880 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), and bottle - grade chip remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton [2]. Spread Information - On August 11, 2025, PXN spread was $265.67/ton (up 1.72%), PX - MX spread was $143.17/ton (up 0.70%) [1]. - On August 12, 2025, PTA near - far month spread remained at - 18 yuan/ton, PTA basis was - 21 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), PX basis was - 124 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), PR basis in East China was - 54 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and in South China was - 14 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [1] Operation Rate and Sales Rate - On August 12, 2025, PX operation rate was 78.11%, PTA factory load rate was 76.56%, polyester factory load rate was 86.88% (down 0.21%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate was 57.83% [1]. - On August 12, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 42% (down 1%), polyester short - fiber sales rate was 58% (up 7%), and polyester chip sales rate was 115% (up 18%) [1] Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. Trading Strategy - After price corrections, the TA2509 contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.38%) with a trading volume of 367,400 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) with a trading volume of 68,800 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.44%) with a trading volume of 17,000 lots. Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for asphalt is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The demand for asphalt is weak, and the spot price has declined slightly [1]. Recently, the crude oil price has started to oscillate and decline, weakening the cost - side support for asphalt, which has a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures and spot markets. The supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with inventory at a low level and no significant signs of inventory accumulation. The short - term market surplus pressure is limited, but the market sentiment is mediocre. Without the influence of cost - side factors, the fundamental driving force for asphalt is limited. If the oil price continues to fall, the asphalt market price will also weaken further [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 11th, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 221,001 lots, a decrease of 611 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,843 lots, an increase of 5,523 lots compared to the previous day [2]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,530 - 3,970 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,540 - 3,630 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, Shandong, and South China markets decreased yesterday, while the price in the North China market increased slightly, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened on August 12, 2025, but the retail price remains unchanged due to low crude oil price fluctuations and a failure to meet international adjustment thresholds [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The international oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI crude oil settling at $63.96 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.63 per barrel as of August 11, 2025 [1] - OPEC+ announced a completion of a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking an early exit from a previous reduction plan, which negatively impacted the oil market [1] - The crude oil price change rate was recorded at 0.55%, indicating a potential domestic gasoline and diesel price increase of 20 yuan per ton, but it did not reach the international adjustment threshold [1] Group 2: Gasoline Market Analysis - The operating rate of local refineries remained stable at around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries increased to approximately 84%, leading to a slight increase in refined oil supply [3] - The domestic gasoline market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere due to normal travel activities and fluctuating crude oil prices, resulting in a downward trend in gasoline prices [3] - The increasing penetration of electric vehicles has led to lower-than-expected gasoline demand [3] Group 3: Diesel Market Analysis - Diesel market supply has slightly increased, but demand has weakened due to increased rainy weather and reduced agricultural oil consumption following the summer harvest [3] - Diesel inventory reached 1.1477 million tons in July, reflecting an 11.37% month-on-month increase, indicating a potential downward trend in diesel prices [3] - The overall diesel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to stable infrastructure and logistics demand [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The upcoming end of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the U.S. and unresolved supply risks are expected to keep international oil prices weak in the short term [4] - Domestic refinery operating rates have increased, leading to a relaxed supply of refined oil, while gasoline demand has not shown significant growth, suggesting a continued downward trend in gasoline prices [4] - Diesel demand is also expected to decline further, indicating a potential continuation of lower diesel prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unavailable 2. Core Viewpoints - The rigid demand for asphalt is weak, and the market trading is relatively light [1] - The cost - side support for asphalt has weakened due to the continuous decline in crude oil prices, and the price trend will marginally weaken if oil prices continue to fall. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and limited short - term excess pressure, but there is limited upward drive from the fundamentals [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 5th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,520 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 208,129 lots, a decrease of 3,838 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 128,452 lots, a decrease of 11,859 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,570 - 3,970 yuan/ton; South China 3,560 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, East China, and South China decreased, while other regions remained stable [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; no strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply - demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has warmed up, and the propylene futures market has recovered. However, the continuous decline in crude oil prices at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. On the supply side, there are maintenance works at Tianjin Bohua and Dongming Petrochemical, and the upstream operating rate has declined slightly. The overall operating rate of PDH has also decreased slightly month - on - month. There is an expectation of restarting the Bohua PDH device in early August, and with the expected release of new production capacity, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, providing phased support for demand. The overall downstream operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but the sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season of demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate are provided [16][23][26] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are given [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]