Company Overview - EOG Resources (EOG) shares increased by 3.9% to close at $125.28, with notable trading volume compared to typical sessions, and a 4.1% gain over the past four weeks [1][2] - The company's financial performance is closely linked to oil and gas prices, which recently surged nearly 7% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel [2] Financial Performance - EOG Resources is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 33.2%, with revenues projected at $5.37 billion, down 10.9% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for EOG has been revised 3.8% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions, which typically does not lead to price appreciation [4] Industry Context - EOG Resources operates within the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, which includes other companies like Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) [5] - REPX's consensus EPS estimate has changed by -11.3% over the past month, representing a decline of 21.7% from the previous year, and it also holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6]

花旗：在短期内，我们预计布伦特原油价格将继续在每桶70至80美元之间波动。 布伦特原油 ...

中信证券研报指出，当前中东、俄乌地缘冲突主导 油价大幅上行，短期内油价持续高位波动，关注矛 盾是否进一步激化及原油基础设施 港口等运行条件。OPEC+的增产策略在高油价下或发生变化，关注7 月6日即将召开的下一次会议。当前欧美需求正值旺季，关注去库表现能否支撑高油价。中国需求弱势 运行，关注是否进一步下探。综合来看，短期地缘扰动推动布伦特期货价格或在70-100美元/桶运行， 若需求不及预期且OPEC+持续增产，中枢将逐步下移。 ...

WTI原油期货日内涨近1%。据英国金融时报，以色列可能最早周五袭击伊朗核设施，军事打击可能比 一些人预期的更早。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The mismatch between supply and demand growth restricts the polypropylene market. With capacity expansion and weak consumption recovery, polypropylene prices are in a downward trend. The cost - end crude oil also faces supply - and - demand pressures, and its price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, providing limited cost support for polypropylene. The polypropylene futures main contract shows a bearish pattern, but the short - term downward space is limited, and it may show a low - level consolidation pattern. There is potential for a low - level rebound during the consumption season, but the seasonal features will be weakened by negative factors [1][12] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Pressure under Capacity Expansion Background - From January to April 2025, the cumulative maintenance loss of propylene in China was 2.318 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.15%. However, due to the continuous release of new production capacity, China's polypropylene output from January to April reached 12.611 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The total supply growth rate from January to April was 10.8%. Although the increase in maintenance losses and exports has alleviated domestic supply pressure to some extent, the supply pressure cannot be effectively relieved in the continuous capacity expansion cycle [1] - As of now, 1.95 million tons of new polypropylene plants have been put into production in 2025, and there are still multiple plants planned to be put into production in the middle of the year. The supply pressure in the second half of the year will continue, but the arrival of the consumption peak season may offset some of the supply - side pressure. Delays in plant commissioning due to poor profitability may also reduce the pressure [3] 2. Consumption Recovery below Expectations - After the Spring Festival this year, the downstream start - up of polypropylene recovered quickly but lacked stamina. In April, the traditional peak season, consumption recovery was significantly below expectations. Domestic demand was weak, and external demand was under pressure due to trade disputes. The operating rates of major downstream sectors declined, and the overall showed a high - level decline. In May, it was in the transition to the seasonal off - season, and the downstream start - up was expected to further decline. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation alleviated market concerns to some extent, the demand side still had many uncertainties, and the growth momentum of the terminal consumer market was insufficient [7] 3. Oil Price Decline Pressuring the Cost End - Since the beginning of this year, the crude oil price has dropped from about $82 in mid - January to a low of $58. The main reasons include intensified international trade rectification, accelerated production increase by OPEC +, and easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation. The decline in the cost end is an important factor leading to the drop in polypropylene prices. Although there are expectations of some improvement in oil prices in the later stage, such as the upcoming US summer demand peak and the easing of trade disputes, the overall low - level operation logic of oil prices is difficult to reverse [10]

油价在震荡中小幅下跌，因更广泛的金融市场疲软，对伊朗的制裁是放松还是收紧的不确定性挥之不 去。 在其他地方，康菲石油公司（ConocoPhillips）首席执行官Ryan Lance表示，他认为美国页岩油产量尚未 达到峰值。他补充道，价格持续在50美元左右将导致缓慢下降，但在60美元左右产量将趋于平稳。交易 员一直在关注油价下跌对美国供应影响的迹象。 价格 纽约7月交割的WTI下跌0.2%，收于62.03美元。六月期货周二到期。 布伦特原油下跌0.2%，收于每桶65.38美元。（小晨编译） 自上周以来，油价一直在波动，关于伊朗-美国谈判命运的头条新闻喜忧参半，这可能为更多桶原油重 返预计今年晚些时候供应过剩的市场铺平道路。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正在撤回结束乌克兰和俄罗斯 战争的努力，这增加了全球的不确定性。 BOK Financial Securities交易高级副总裁Dennis Kissler表示："目前，在了解欧佩克、伊朗和俄罗斯的传 奇故事如何发展之前，这只是一条通往原油'无处可去'的道路。" 在中美贸易战缓和后，原油在4月份下跌19%后，本月出现反弹。最近几周几种精炼燃料相对于原油的 溢价飙升，这可 ...

4月30日24时，国内成品油零售价格调整迎来今年第二次搁浅。在未来半个月时间内(4月30日24时至5月 19日24时)，居民驾车出行燃油成本及物流运输燃油成本将保持不变。 据国家发展改革委消息，自2025年4月17日国内成品油价格调整以来，国际市场油价波动运行，按现行 国内成品油价格机制测算，4月30日的前10个工作日平均价格与4月17日前10个工作日平均价格相比，调 价金额每吨不足50元。根据《石油价格管理办法》第七条规定，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整，未调金额 纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。 隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟认为，从成本端来看，本周期内国际原油价格持续下跌，整体拉低成品油 成本；从供需面来看，主营炼厂检修较多，独立炼厂负荷亦低位运行，国内整体供应低位，但原油下跌 利空市场心态，中下游入市积极性较低，观望氛围浓厚，车船成交亦较为保守，对汽油柴油价格形成拖 累，但汽油价格受到"五一"节前备货支撑跌幅小于柴油。 金联创成品油分析师马建彩指出，后市来看，国际市场消息面缺少有力支撑，原油价格反弹乏力，消息 面对国内市场影响受限。节后市场来看，汽油需求支撑减弱，且调价方向存不确定性，业内对后市看空 心态升温，汽油价 ...

Group 1 - The international crude oil market has shown a fluctuating trend during the current pricing cycle, leading to a narrowing of the domestic reference crude oil change rate, with an adjustment amount of 45 yuan/ton, which has not reached the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold [1] - As of April 28, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was calculated at 1.11%, indicating a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 45 yuan/ton, but still below the retail price limit for refined oil [1] - The upcoming OPEC+ production increase and ongoing uncertainties in trade situations are contributing to the pressure on crude oil demand and prices, resulting in a mixed market outlook [1] Group 2 - With one working day remaining before the pricing window opens, the likelihood of a suspension in domestic refined oil price adjustments is high, although an upward adjustment cannot be completely ruled out [2] - If the price adjustment results in a suspension, it will mark the second suspension of refined oil retail price adjustments since 2025, maintaining fuel costs for residents and logistics for the next half month [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations as of April 25, 2025, with Brent and WTI prices at $65.80 and $63.02 per barrel respectively [7][22] - OPEC+ may accelerate the exit from voluntary production cuts in June, raising concerns about supply increases [7] - Kazakhstan's energy minister indicated that national interests would take precedence over OPEC+ interests, further intensifying supply concerns [7] - The market faces multiple uncertainties, including tariffs and geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations [7] Oil Price Summary - As of April 25, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $65.80 per barrel, down $0.46 (-0.69%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $63.02 per barrel, up $0.61 (+0.98%) [22] - Russian Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude price decreased by $0.32 (-0.51%) to $62.28 per barrel [22] Offshore Drilling Services - As of April 21, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 381, an increase of 1 from the previous week; the number of floating drilling rigs was 141, also up by 1 [26] US Oil Supply - As of April 18, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.02 million barrels per day from the previous week [42] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 483 as of April 25, 2025 [42] - The number of fracturing fleets in the US rose by 5 to 205 as of April 25, 2025 [42] US Oil Demand - As of April 18, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.89 million barrels per day, an increase of 325,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.10%, up 1.8 percentage points [53] US Oil Inventory - As of April 18, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 841 million barrels, an increase of 712,000 barrels (+0.08%) from the previous week [64] - Strategic oil inventory was 397 million barrels, up 468,000 barrels (+0.12%); commercial crude oil inventory was 443 million barrels, up 244,000 barrels (+0.06%) [64] Related Companies - Key companies in the industry include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent inventory accumulation rate in the asphalt industry chain has slowed down. If the inventory level can remain low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the medium - to - long - term supply side, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450 [4][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro and geopolitical factors. At the beginning of April, due to global trade war disturbances, crude oil prices dropped significantly, causing the asphalt cost to collapse. The domestic pessimistic sentiment spread, and the price of the main asphalt contract followed the sharp decline of crude oil prices to around 3300 yuan/ton. In mid - April, the intensification of US sanctions on Iran and the OPEC+ over - production compensation plan led to a rebound in crude oil prices, driving the repair of asphalt costs. The asphalt price gradually recovered with the support of cost repair and demand improvement. In late April, the trade war situation continued, and there were disagreements within OPEC+ regarding production adjustments, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate more violently. In April, the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.5 US dollars/barrel. The basis generally recovered, and currently, both the spot and futures valuations are high [3][9][29]. 1.2 Market Outlook - The recent slowdown in inventory accumulation in the asphalt industry chain. If the inventory level remains low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the supply side in the second half of the year, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450 [4]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Range - bound shock. - Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil is expected to narrow. - Options: If holding long positions, a strategy of selling call options can be adopted [5][34]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - Repeated with the content in the preface summary, in April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro and geopolitical factors, affecting asphalt prices and costs, and the basis generally recovered with high spot and futures valuations [9]. 2.2 Supply Overview - In March, domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons (9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 140,000 tons (6%). From January to March 2025, domestic refinery asphalt production was 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,000 tons. In April, the planned asphalt production of domestic refineries was 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons (1%) and a year - on - year decrease of 160,000 tons (7%). In May, the planned asphalt production of local refineries is expected to be around 1.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 150,000 tons (15%) and a year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons (16%). In the first quarter of 2025, domestic asphalt imports were 670,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of about 20%. In March 2025, asphalt imports were about 260,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 40,000 tons; exports in February were about 60,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons [15][16][17]. 2.3 Demand Overview - In April, as the temperature warmed up, the overall demand for asphalt continued to recover slowly. At the refinery end, the shipment volume increased month - on - month, and the shipment level was higher than that of the same period last year. Downstream demand also recovered slowly but was still lower than last year's level. The capacity utilization rate of road modified asphalt increased slightly, rising about 2 percentage points compared to March. Modified asphalt enterprises resumed production and increased production, and the capacity utilization rate continued to rise by 2 percentage points. The demand for waterproofing membranes remained stable. In the north, the good weather supported the rigid demand; in the south, the intermittent rainy weather limited the demand growth [23]. 2.4 Inventory and Valuation - The inventory accumulation rate in the industry chain slowed down. In April, the refinery inventory remained stable compared to March, with the refinery inventory rate maintained at 30% - 31%. The social inventory rate increased slightly month - on - month. In terms of cost, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply in April, affecting asphalt costs. The basis generally recovered, and currently, both the spot and futures valuations are high [28][29]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The demand in the short - term and expected to improve, and the inventory accumulation rate in the asphalt industry chain has slowed down. If the inventory level can remain low in the second quarter, it will strongly support subsequent prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate significantly due to macro and geopolitical factors, while medium - to - long - term oil prices still face downward pressure. The unilateral price fluctuation of asphalt is weaker than that of crude oil. With the improvement of short - term supply and demand and the lack of elasticity in the medium - to - long - term supply side, the downward space of asphalt is expected to be limited, and it should be treated with a shock mindset. The operating range of BU2506 is expected to be between 3300 - 3450. Strategy recommendations include unilateral range - bound shock, narrowing the asphalt - crude oil spread, and if holding long positions, adopting a strategy of selling call options [34].