国金证券石油化工团队认为，当前原油价格仍在地缘冲突与供需过剩的矛盾中博弈，短期来看，主要支 撑来自地缘因素。地缘冲突引发的原油价格上涨都将是一时性的，中期将进一步加剧原油过剩的压力。 如委内瑞拉冲突结束，委内瑞拉产量可能修复至110万桶/天以上。 国泰君安期货分析师黄柳楠认为，原油短线受到委内瑞拉局势影响，委油出口短期继续受阻，油价或存 在部分情绪溢价高开。委内瑞拉短期出口直接下滑规模或在30-60万桶/日。但长期来看，各类油品间接 贸易渠道的孕育、轻重油市场的可分化性、地缘局势本身的演绎、OPEC+其他成员国对产量的填补均 可能进一步削弱市场对这一利好的计价程度。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 2026年开年，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被俘引发市场对原油市场的关注。 由于委内瑞拉的探明石油储量居世界第一，当局的波动可能会让石油价格出现震荡，多数分析认为，原 油短线可能会冲高5%到8%，但中长期来看，受到全球经济疲软，原油供应依然供大于求，原油价格在 今年一季度依然会承压。由于事件发生在周末，市场对于下周一原油的表现也都翘首以盼。 短线或有5%到8%的涨幅 新华社消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月3日称，美军对委内瑞拉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent performance of the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index and the impact of geopolitical tensions in Venezuela on the oil market, with expectations of a price range for Brent crude oil in early 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) increased by 0.01%, with notable gains from stocks such as Haimer Technology (300084) up 4.26%, Yutong Co. (603036) up 3.10%, and China Petroleum (601857) up 1.56% [1]. - The oil and gas ETF (159697) was quoted at 1.19 yuan, with a net subscription of 4 million units during the trading session [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the regional situation in Venezuela is causing disturbances in the crude oil market, adding uncertainty to supply and demand forecasts [1]. - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a significant accumulation of supply in the near term, projecting Brent crude oil prices to range between $55 and $63 per barrel in January 2026, with potential downward pressure [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China Petroleum (601857), China Petrochemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), collectively accounting for 65.78% of the index [2]. - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily News - Iran's natural gas supply interruption caused Iraq to lose about 4500 megawatts of power - generating capacity due to technical issues and increased domestic energy demand in Iran during winter [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call with US envoy Witkoff and Trump's senior advisor Kushner, and the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [4] - The early - batch crude oil quota for 2026 was issued with a year - on - year increase, and the expectation of fuel oil feedstock weakened. The market was worried about Venezuelan fuel oil supply due to US sanctions, and the short - term sentiment was dominant [4] 3.2 Inventory - US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 19 was 239.1 million barrels, with a previous value of - 932.2 million barrels; API refined oil inventory was 68.5 million barrels, with a previous value of 251.1 million barrels; API gasoline inventory was 109 million barrels, with a previous value of 483.5 million barrels [4] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 127.4 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.3% [4] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.9 million barrels to 412.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1 million barrels to 1384.3 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2052.1 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending December 12, US crude oil exports increased by 65.5 million barrels per day to 466.4 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves last week was 652.5 million barrels per day, a decrease of 6.4 million barrels per day compared with the previous week [5] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week's weekly oil prices closed lower. Trump's order to "block" Venezuelan oil tankers led to an oil price rebound, and geopolitical events such as the Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued to occur [5] - Global supply and demand remained weak, and the market was in a state of oversupply. The oil market de - stocked this week, and on Friday, the calendar spreads of the three major crude oil markets rebounded slightly, while the crack spreads of global gasoline and diesel continued to weaken [5] - The US refinery operating rate was at a high level, and the domestic operating rate fluctuated. The oversupply in the fundamentals was confirmed, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela had limited impact on crude oil supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the Israel - Iran situation [5] - In the first quarter, the oversupply was significant, and it was advisable to short - sell the calendar spread and absolute prices [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油2602： 1.基本面：美国对联合国表示，将实施与执行"最大限度的"制裁，以剥夺委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的资源， 与此同时，俄罗斯警告其他拉美国家可能成为下一个被制裁的对象；美国商务部经济分析局公布的首 次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度 3.8%的增速和市场预期；俄美两国外交官就消除两国关系中的 "障碍因素 "举行了会谈，但主要问题仍 未得到解决；中性 2.基差：12月22日，阿曼原油现货价为61.75美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为60.33美元/桶，基差 25.36元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至12月19日当周API原油库存增加239.1万桶，前值减少932.2万桶；美国至12月12日当 周EIA库存减少127.4万桶，预期减少106.6万桶；库欣地区库存至12月12日当周减少74.2万桶，前值增加 30.8万桶；截止至12月22日，上海原油期货库存为346.4万桶，不变；偏空 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线附近；中性 5.主力持仓：截至12月9日，WTI原油主力持仓多单，多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 23, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum hit the daily limit, lithium carbonate and palladium rose over 5%, and silver futures rose over 4%. On the other hand, ethylene glycol (EG) dropped over 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), logs, and red dates fell over 1%. Different futures varieties have different trends and influencing factors, and investors are advised to make decisions carefully [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Performance - **Futures Market Overview**: As of the close on December 23, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Platinum hit the daily limit, lithium carbonate and palladium rose over 5%, and silver futures rose over 4%. In terms of declines, ethylene glycol (EG) dropped over 3%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), logs, and red dates fell over 1%. Index futures and treasury bond futures also showed different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [5][6]. - **Futures Index Performance**: The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.12%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.22%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 0.04%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 0.15%. The main contract of 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS) rose 0.07%, the main contract of 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF) rose 0.17%, the main contract of 10 - year treasury bond futures (T) rose 0.26%, and the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.89% [6]. - **Capital Flow**: As of 15:21 on December 23, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 2.004 billion yuan, lithium carbonate 2605 had an inflow of 876 million yuan, and platinum 2606 had an inflow of 835 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 2603 had an outflow of 633 million yuan, Shanghai copper 2602 had an outflow of 568 million yuan, and Shanghai aluminum 2602 had an outflow of 256 million yuan [6]. Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: On the day, Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong trend during the day. In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.76%). SMM predicts that the electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (an increase of 5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper foil maintains a high - growth level, but copper products are affected by various factors, and the market is mainly characterized by a relatively strong and volatile trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate opened flat and moved high, rising nearly 6% during the day. This week, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 83.52%, significantly higher year - on - year. The downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, and lithium iron phosphate has a price - increase expectation, which supports the price increase of lithium carbonate at the raw - material end. However, the end - of - season demand and the uncertainty of mine resumption need to be further observed, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production of the organization in 2026. Eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. The global crude - oil market is still in a pattern of oversupply, but the geopolitical situation in Venezuela has heated up, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side shows that the asphalt start - up rate has declined, and the expected production volume in December has decreased. The downstream start - up rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The market is concerned about the export of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil and its impact on domestic asphalt production. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [13]. - **PP**: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream start - up rate of PP decreased. The enterprise start - up rate is at a neutral - to - low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15]. - **Plastic**: On December 23, the start - up rate of plastic increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level. The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that plastic will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][17]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped. The PVC start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has also declined. The export situation is not good, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and it is expected that the upward space for PVC in the near future is limited [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened high and moved high, rising nearly 2% during the day. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand is weak. Although the sentiment has recovered and rebounded, the upward height is limited, and investors should beware of sentiment cooling [19][20]. - **Urea**: The futures price opened high and moved high during the day. The spot price is stable, and the supply pressure is not alleviated. The demand is mainly supported by the winter - storage production of compound fertilizers. The inventory is mainly concentrated in the winter - storage areas, and it is expected that the inventory - reduction amplitude will narrow. The market has limited positive factors, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various segments [3]. Core Insights - The blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers due to U.S. sanctions is expected to support international oil prices, with Venezuelan crude oil production and exports significantly declining [5][6]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude futures at $60.47 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.06% [16]. - The refining sector shows mixed signals, with a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads but an increase in olefin spreads, indicating potential profitability improvements [49][51]. - The polyester sector is witnessing tightening supply and demand, with expectations of improved market conditions in the medium term [9]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Venezuelan crude oil production in November was 934 thousand barrels per day, down 2.3% month-on-month, with exports at 653 thousand barrels per day, down 16.7% [5][6]. - As of December 19, the U.S. oil rig count was 542, a decrease of 6 rigs week-on-week and down 47 rigs year-on-year [31] [28]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $16.62 per barrel, down $3.14 from the previous week [51]. - The domestic refining product crack spread has improved slightly, indicating potential for profitability as economic conditions recover [49]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has decreased to 4615.6 CNY per ton, down 0.53% week-on-week, while the PX to naphtha spread has increased, suggesting a potential for improved margins in the polyester chain [9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include quality firms in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [9]. - The report suggests maintaining a neutral outlook on oil prices for 2026, with a focus on companies with high dividend yields such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [9].

原油成品油早报 ·市场消息：美国允许部分与伊朗相关的交易持续至1月18日 ·JODI：沙特10月原油出口量增加至710万桶/日 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/19 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/12/12 | 57.44 | 61.12 | 62.06 | 0.61 | 0.28 | -3.68 | 0.35 | 175.21 | 12.47 | 219.80 | 31.20 | | 2025/12/15 | 56.82 | 60.56 | 61.70 | 0.69 | 0.26 | -3.74 | 0.54 | 173.23 | 12.20 ...

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金以震荡调整为主，但整体看涨的逻辑清晰，无论是短线还是中长线都有机会再创新高。 隔夜美元多头开始发力，试图挑战关键阻力位，但受阻明显，从美国货币政策来看，弱势美元将是长期的主旋律。 随着美国失业率上升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高后，市场期待美联储加大降息力度，以支持就业市场。美联储理事克里 斯托弗·沃勒表示，他支持在未来进一步下调利率，以使央行的货币政策立场回归中性，但同时强调决策层没有必要仓促降息， 这是美联储官员在议息会议后首次对利率表态。 世界黄金协会最新数据显示，黄金在2025年表现亮眼，不断刷新历史纪录，而以当前价位计算，2026年黄金价格有望再上涨 15%至30%。投资需求，尤其是通过黄金ETF的投资需求将扮演越来越重要的角色，年初至今全球黄金ETF已吸引770亿美元资金 流入，增持量超过700吨。各国央行也未停止购金，今年第三季度全球央行黄金采购量达220吨，环比增长28%。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，更低的利率、走弱的美元以及更强的避险情绪叠加，将为黄金提供持续的支撑，综 合各种因素，黄金依旧是值得入手的资产。 技术面：黄金日线连续收小阳线，重心未出现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming looser. Sanctions and potential agreements may increase supply pressure, causing oil prices to drop to a new low for the year [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term supply-demand mismatches may support crack spreads, but high inventories will limit upside in the medium term. For low-sulfur fuel oil, it is expected to remain weak in the medium term despite some short-term supports [2]. - The asphalt market continues to be under pressure due to weak oil prices and fundamentals, with demand showing a north-south divide [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EU announced new sanctions against Russia on the 15th. US sanctions on Venezuela have led to a sharp decline in its oil exports. Market concerns about increased Russian oil supply after a potential agreement are pressuring oil prices [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil: Geopolitical factors affect supply, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand from refineries and shipping may provide some support [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production is expected to shrink in December, potentially increasing import demand. Seasonal consumption and unstable overseas refineries may support crack spreads in the short term, but it will remain weak in the medium term [2]. Asphalt - The spot price of asphalt dropped significantly last night, and the futures market followed suit. Demand shows a north-south divide, and the market continues to be under pressure [3].

Group 1: Core Views - The bond futures market is experiencing a shift, with the basis center moving down and structural differentiation emerging due to the interplay of declining coupon rates and diversified market participants [2][3] - The cross-period price differences in bond futures are negatively correlated with market trends, indicating an evolution in investor trading strategies towards forward-looking layouts [2][3] Group 2: Institutional Behavior Changes - The holding volume of bond futures has significantly increased, reflecting market expansion, but different contract maturities show varied growth driven by allocation and arbitrage needs [3] - New funds are increasingly concentrated in T and TL contracts due to their liquidity and longer duration, while TS and TF contracts see spikes in short positions driven by tight funding conditions [3] Group 3: Profit Strategies for 2025 - In Q1 2025, low basis conditions favor hedging strategies using T/TL contracts to mitigate losses [4] - In Q2 2025, high IRR conditions favor a long position in cash bonds combined with short futures, particularly in short-term bonds and long-term local government bonds [4] - In Q3 2025, as speculative funds withdraw, hedging and curve strategies are expected to perform better [4] - In Q4 2025, a focus on refined operations will be necessary, with short-term curve strategies or cross-period strategies providing opportunities [4] Group 4: 2026 Outlook - The cash bond remains the core pricing anchor in the bond market, while bond futures may act as a more sensitive sensor for stock-bond and commercial-bond relationships, leading to increased elasticity and structural differentiation [5] - Technical analysis suggests that if TL contracts do not quickly recover from a recent drop, a weak oscillation pattern may continue into 2026 [5] - Utilizing bond futures and derivatives effectively can help overcome yield bottlenecks and amplify profit elasticity, with strategies tailored to market conditions [5]