黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 黑色建材日报 2026-01-27 【策略观点】 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3143 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.031%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 1204 吨。主力合约持仓量为 173.09 万手，环比减少 10906 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3302 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 ...

专家交流：双碳政策有哪些新变化，对建材化工行业有什 么影响？20260126 摘要 中国正从能耗双控转向碳排放双控，要求高碳项目进行环评和探评，并 建立地方碳排放考核机制，将国家达峰目标分解至各省市，重点管控电 力、钢铁、有色、建材、石化化工等八大行业。 全国碳市场已纳入 3,770 家企业，预计 2027 年将达 8,000 家，覆盖电 力、水泥、钢铁、铝等行业，未来还将纳入化工、石化、有色金属等， 这些企业需严格遵守国家规定的碳排放配额。 2027 年全国碳市场预计纳入约 8,000 家企业，其排放量占全国总排放 量的 80%左右，其余企业可通过自愿减排市场（CCR）参与，通过减排 行动获取收益。 钢铁行业在 2024-2026 年为适应过渡期，2027 年开始正常发放配额， 初期配额宽松，惩戒幅度不超过 3%，后期将收紧配额，化工行业预计 2027 年进入碳市场，初期免费发放配额，未来或过渡到有偿分配。 国内碳市场价格波动，目前约 81 元/吨，高峰时超 100 元，未来 2-3 年 预计波动范围为 80-150 元/吨，各行业可据此测算成本压力，如合成氨 等化工产品每吨成本增加几十至一两百元。 Q&A ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Precious Metals Market**: The precious metals market is currently driven by central bank gold purchases, indicating a long-term cycle independent of general commodity trends. The valuation of precious metals is undergoing a comprehensive recovery, with gold expected to experience upward fluctuations over the next 3-5 years, supported by central bank buying during corrections of around 5% [2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Valuation**: The current valuation of gold is recovering, with the market shifting from a short-term cycle to a long-term cycle driven by central bank actions. The valuation is expected to continue improving, with significant support from central bank purchases [2][4]. - **Aluminum Market**: Aluminum prices have room for growth, benefiting from stable global manufacturing PMI and increasing photovoltaic demand, with an expected annual growth rate of 3-5%. The copper-aluminum price ratio is expected to stabilize, with conservative estimates suggesting aluminum prices could reach 30,000 RMB [1][9][12]. - **Supply Constraints**: Global electricity shortages are limiting aluminum supply, particularly in North America, which may face an energy crisis. China's dual carbon policy restricts high-energy aluminum production, further supporting future price increases [10][11][12]. - **Copper Market**: The copper market is benefiting from AI and energy transition trends, with long-term demand growth anticipated. The geopolitical tensions are increasing resource competition, making copper prices more resilient [16][17]. - **Lithium Market**: The lithium carbonate market is entering a price increase cycle due to supply constraints from production halts in Yichun and limited overseas resources. Prices are expected to rise to 150,000 to 200,000 RMB [3][19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Aluminum Sector**: The aluminum sector is characterized by high dividends and valuation recovery potential. Companies like Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao are seen as undervalued, while companies like Shenhuo and Yun Aluminum have significant profit elasticity [1][14][15]. - **Stock Valuation**: The stock market for precious metals has only partially recovered, with current near-term valuations around 20 times earnings and long-term around 15 times, compared to a historical average of 25 times [4][5]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The focus is shifting towards companies with significant mineral reserves, such as Shandong Gold and Zhaojin Mining, as the market increasingly values long-term reserves over short-term production [5][30]. - **Tin Market**: The tin market is experiencing strong demand, particularly from the semiconductor industry, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated. Companies like Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous are highlighted for their potential [24][30]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the metals market is optimistic, with various sectors showing potential for growth driven by supply constraints, changing demand dynamics, and supportive government policies. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and significant reserves to capitalize on these trends.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Steel Industry - Iron ore supply is expected to become more relaxed, with Australian shipments projected to reach a historical high of 960 million tons in 2026, an increase of 24 million tons year-on-year. Brazilian shipments are also expected to rise by approximately 10 million tons. This supply increase supports the cost reduction logic for steel companies, leading to further profit recovery in the steel industry [2][1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector shows significant signs of valuation recovery, with silver leading the charge. Industrial metals are in the early stages of recovery, while basic and energy metals are at the initial stage of bottom reversal. Short-term recommendations include increasing allocations to copper and aluminum [3][4]. Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber sector is experiencing price increases for electronic fabrics due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The unit profit forecast for China Jushi's electronic fabric is expected to rise from 0.7 yuan in 2025 to 1.3 yuan in 2026, potentially reaching 1.5 yuan. This could lead to an annual performance of 4.5 to 5 billion yuan for China Jushi [5][1]. Oil Shipping Sector - The oil shipping sector has seen a significant year-on-year increase in LCC freight rates, now exceeding $110,000, a rise of 87%. This is driven by increased production from South American deep-sea oil fields, OPEC's production policies, and a rebound in China's crude oil imports. The sector is entering a strong prosperity phase [8][1]. Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is witnessing a significant repair in the supply-demand balance. In 2026 and 2027, attention should be paid to sub-industries with high operating rates and limited new capacity, such as chlor-alkali, organic silicon, and PTA polyester filament. Major polyester filament manufacturers have initiated production cuts to alleviate inventory pressure [10][1]. Additional Insights Soda Ash Market - The soda ash market currently faces low price expectations due to overproduction, but demand is better than anticipated. The price has dropped below 1,100 yuan, indicating an oversold condition. Companies like Boyan Chemical are recommended due to their cost advantages and strong growth potential [11][1]. Dual Carbon Policy Impact - The dual carbon policy significantly impacts the chemical industry, with local governments tightening energy consumption limits for new projects. This affects high-energy-consuming sectors like chlor-alkali and organic silicon. Companies benefiting from this policy include Jiahua Energy and Junzheng Group [12][1]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is viewed positively under the backdrop of resource inflation, with a high probability of a bottom reversal by the end of 2026. Key recommendations include Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [19][1]. Price Trends in Coal - As of last week, thermal coal prices have stabilized around 695 yuan, while coking coal prices have increased by 150 yuan to 1,770 yuan. The prices are expected to remain stable due to winter stocking demands [20][1]. Import Trends - In 2025, China’s coal imports fell to 490 million tons, a nearly 10% decrease. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued challenges in increasing imports due to rising domestic costs and supply vulnerabilities from major exporting countries like Indonesia and Australia [21][22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations across various industries.

Summary of Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview: Petrochemical and Chemical Sector Key Insights - The petrochemical industry saw a significant increase in holding proportion to 0.6% in Q4 2025, up from 0.35% in Q3 2025, indicating rising market interest, particularly in upstream companies like Jereh, the "Three Barrels of Oil," and Baofeng [3][1] - Some petrochemical product prices, including benzene, PX, styrene, and ethylene glycol, have rebounded due to supply-side disruptions such as maintenance and unplanned shutdowns, despite current demand being in a low season [5][1] - The chemical industry’s active public fund allocation increased by 0.6% in Q4 2025, yet it remains under-allocated, suggesting significant future growth potential [7][1] Future Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point for the chemical industry due to declining capital expenditures, near-zero capacity growth in most sub-industries, and restrictions from dual carbon policies on new project expansions [8][1] - The IMF's upward revision of global economic growth expectations is expected to boost chemical demand, particularly in emerging sectors like energy storage, robotics, AI, and commercial aerospace [9][1] Regulatory Impact - The dual carbon policy will significantly restrict new project expansions, requiring carbon emission evaluations as a prerequisite for project approvals. This is expected to pose challenges for new projects until 2027 [10][1] Sub-Industry Insights Polyurethane, PTA, and Polyester Filament - Polyurethane prices have recently adjusted but are expected to rise during the peak season from March to May. Limited capacity growth in PTA and polyester filament, along with high operating rates, is driving gradual improvements in market conditions [4][1][13][1] Potash and Refrigerants - Potash prices have steadily increased to around 3,000 CNY, with tight supply conditions expected to persist due to rising global consumption. The refrigerant market is stable but anticipated to rise as the peak season approaches, with significant price potential for mainstream refrigerants [16][1] Market Dynamics - The chemical and non-ferrous metal industries face supply constraints, with slow resource expansion potentially leading to long-term price increases. The dual carbon policy may similarly impact chemical products, creating a scenario of constrained supply against growing demand [11][1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies like Baofeng, Weixing, and private refining firms as key investment targets in the cyclical sector. Additionally, consider investment opportunities in companies like Xin'an and Hesheng Silicon Industry in the silicon chemical sector, and in potassium fertilizer companies like Yajiang International and Salt Lake Co. [6][1][14][1][16][1] Conclusion - The petrochemical and chemical industries are poised for significant changes driven by market dynamics, regulatory impacts, and evolving demand patterns. Investors should remain vigilant and consider strategic allocations in identified growth areas while monitoring policy developments and market trends.

Core Viewpoint - Pinecone Wisdom Inc. is set to go public in Hong Kong with a valuation of approximately $966 million, reflecting a 30.1% decrease from its peak valuation of $1.382 billion in 2021, amid challenges from competition and profitability pressures [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has remained stagnant around 950 million yuan over the past three years, with reported revenues of 953 million yuan in 2023, 963 million yuan in 2024, and 746 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4]. - Daily average order volume has declined from 1.1019 million in 2023 to 1.006 million in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to strategic optimization of operational regions [3][4]. - Despite the decline in order volume, the average price per trip has increased from 2.73 yuan in 2023 to 2.94 yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4]. - The net loss has gradually narrowed, with losses of 192 million yuan in 2023, 151 million yuan in 2024, and 60 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 403 million yuan in cumulative losses [3][4]. Profitability and Operational Efficiency - Adjusted net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 26 million yuan, a turnaround from a net loss of 19 million yuan in the same period of 2024, driven by improved asset utilization and cost control [4]. - Gross margin has significantly improved from 15.8% in 2023 to 24.3% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating enhanced cost management capabilities [4]. Market Position and Strategy - Pinecone Wisdom has adopted a "rural encircling cities" strategy, focusing on third and fourth-tier cities, which has positioned it as the largest shared electric bike operator in China's peripheral development areas [4][5]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company has deployed 454,600 shared electric bikes across 422 cities and counties, with a total registered user base of 128 million [4][5]. Shareholder Structure - The company has a highly institutionalized shareholder structure, with notable investors holding a combined 68.7% stake, including Innovation Works, Sequoia China, and SoftBank [1][7]. Competitive Landscape - Pinecone Wisdom faces significant competition from larger players like Meituan, which have greater financial resources and market presence, particularly in first and second-tier cities [8]. - The company has reported a tight cash flow situation, with cash and cash equivalents of only 157 million yuan against net current liabilities of 1.453 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [8]. Future Outlook - The IPO proceeds are intended for market expansion, technology development, and overseas ventures, although challenges in the county market and competition from giants remain significant [9]. - The company must innovate its business model and strategic direction to overcome growth bottlenecks and competitive pressures, as the IPO may not suffice to address fundamental issues of growth and market positioning [9].

化工板块今日（1月26日）震荡盘整。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘两度冲高，场内价格涨幅一度达到1.32%，午后震荡走弱，最终平 盘报收。值得注意的是，化工ETF（516020）全天多数时间溢价交易，收盘溢价率更是高达0.6%，反映买盘资金较为强势。 成份股方面，磷化工、钛白粉、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，云天化大涨3.56%，卫星化学、兴发集团双双涨超2%，钛能化学、东方盛虹、新 洋丰等多股涨超1%。 注：投资者在申购或赎回基金份额时，申购赎回代理券商可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取佣金，其中包含证券交易所、登记机构等收取的相关费用。化工ETF 不收取销售服务费。 化工ETF联接A申购费率为：100万元以下，0.8%；100万元（含）-200万元，0.5%；200万元（含）以上，每笔1000元。赎回费率为：7天以内，1.5%；7天 （含）-180天，0.5%；180天（含）-以上，0%。 值得注意的是，化工板块场内热门布局工具化工ETF（516020）近日吸金不断。交易所数据显示，截至上个交易日（1月23日），化工ETF（516020）近5个 交易日累计获资金净申购额超过11亿 ...

化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7 条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映 相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 化工板块逆市吸金，化工ETF(159870)盘中净申购11.13亿份，冲刺连续18天净流入。 机构指出，宏观上化工行业已迎来重大拐点。1)双碳政策为化工行业的产能设立长期天花板。未来产能 将有指标化趋势，化工行业盈利周期将被拉长。2)世界局势变化，化工行业有望再定价。我国化工多个 子行业全球市占率已超50%，出口持续高增，中国化工产能在全球或具备稀缺性。且我国化工企业经营 思路或从"抢份额"向"增厚利润"转变，未来化工行业有望再定价。3)下游需求回暖。海外降息周期打 开，国内PPI同比增速下半年有望转正，行业盈利将从上游原材料扩散至中游，且化工行业多个子行业 连续亏损3年以上，涨价意愿强烈，价格上涨弹性或超预期。 截至2026年1月26日 13:53，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)成分股方面涨跌互现，云天化领涨 4.01%，卫星化学上涨3.25%，东方盛虹上涨2.73%；广东宏大 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The construction materials industry is significantly impacted by fluctuations in the real estate market, with intensified competition in segments such as waterproofing, coatings, and glass. Leading companies are aggressively expanding, facing pressure on payment terms. Market concentration is increasing, with the top three waterproofing companies holding 60%-70% market share [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Waterproofing and Coatings**: The waterproofing sector is under pressure due to demand fluctuations closely tied to new construction and project initiation. The coatings sector faces challenges in the TOB (business-to-business) segment but shows strong performance in the TOC (business-to-consumer) segment, exemplified by companies like Sanke Tree achieving growth through strategic transformation [1][2][5]. - **Glass Industry**: The continuous production nature of the glass industry leads to cash flow losses during periods of low demand, resulting in capacity reductions. Current daily melting capacity is at 150,000 tons, putting significant survival pressure on many companies [1][2][5]. - **Cement Industry**: The cement sector may achieve supply-side adjustments through the reduction of clinker capacity, potentially increasing utilization rates. Optimistic estimates suggest a reduction from 2.1-2.2 billion tons to 1.6-1.7 billion tons over the next two to three years [3][5]. Emerging Opportunities - **Chemical Midstream Sector**: The midstream chemical sector benefits from increased domestic capital expenditure, the exit of overseas capacity, and carbon neutrality policies, indicating a clear upward trend. Despite significant prior gains, valuations remain reasonable, with core assets like fiberglass warranting attention [4][8]. - **International Expansion**: Companies like Huaxin are seeing significant growth from international operations, with overseas profits exceeding 50%, driven by demand in emerging markets and competitive advantages [6][9][10]. Specific Areas of Interest - **Waterproofing Materials**: The waterproofing sector is poised for growth, with rapid market share increases and expectations of price hikes due to rising asphalt costs and strong profit demands from leading companies [11]. - **North New Materials**: As a state-owned enterprise, North New Materials has a strong position in the branded building materials sector, with stable profits from gypsum board and active expansion in waterproofing and coatings through acquisitions [12][15][16]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: Companies with alpha characteristics such as Sanke Tree, North New Materials, and others are highlighted for their strong performance and long-term growth potential [13]. Market Dynamics - **Fiberglass Industry**: The fiberglass sector is characterized by a rigid cost structure, with production costs largely independent of oil prices. Demand is expected to grow steadily, with leading companies like China Jushi increasing their global market share [7][19][20]. - **Comparison with Chemical Industry**: The construction materials sector lacks the grand narratives seen in the chemical industry, making it challenging to assess company elasticity due to price volatility. However, branded building materials exhibit strong valuation elasticity [18]. Company-Specific Insights - **San Ke Tree and Hanco**: These leading companies in their respective segments are expected to achieve growth despite market pressures, with San Ke Tree leveraging new community store initiatives to drive profit growth [17]. - **Subote's Transition**: Subote is currently at a low point but is exploring transformation opportunities in high polymer materials, which may enhance its future prospects as cement demand stabilizes [21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments within the construction materials and related sectors, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investment.

消息面上，在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、区域冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素 共振下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，资金战略性增配基础化工。化工 ETF(159870)盘中净申购6.7亿份，冲刺连续18天净流入。 开源证券指出，化工行情自去年7月底启动，核心是供给见顶、反内卷政策落地、机构配置启动三大拐 点共振。2025年下半年，化工多数子行业新增产能落地或增速骤降，固投与在建工程进入尾声，行业底 部明确显现。反内卷政策直击痛点，大幅缩短行业扭亏周期，提前激活行情。7月中央财经会议后，保 险等资金加速配置化工ETF，叠加板块机构持仓处于历史低位，配置行情快速启动且持续至今。 核心关注要点是供给，2021年9月行业见顶后，化工经历了史无前例的大扩产，龙头产能翻倍屡见不 鲜。当前及未来，约束供给是行情的核心要点。市场化出清已无可能，过往产能出清的三大路径均失 效：行业集中度极高，仅剩龙头互卷、内耗严重；地产大规模刺激不现实，高质量发展是主线；出口边 际效用枯竭，中国化工品全球占比超七成，替代空间耗尽且反倾销频发。若无反内卷，光伏困境或会扩 散至整个中游行业。 反内卷是最优解，标志行 ...