淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 信用评级报告 编号：CCXI-20253024M-01 信用评级报告 声 明 根据相关监管规定以及评级委托协议约定，中诚信国际将在评级结果有效期内进行跟踪评级。 中诚信国际将在评级结果有效期内对评级对象风险程度进行全程跟踪监测。发生可能影响评级对象信用水平的重大 事项，评级委托方或评级对象应及时通知中诚信国际并提供相关资料，中诚信国际将就有关事项进行必要调查，及 时对该事项进行分析，据实确认或调整评级结果，并按照相关规则进行信息披露。 如未能及时提供或拒绝提供跟踪评级所需资料，或者出现监管规定的其他情形，中诚信国际可以终止或者撤销评级。 | 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信用评级报告 | | | | | | 评级对象 淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 | | | | | | 主体评级结果 AAA/稳定 | | | | | | 中诚信国际肯定了淮北矿业控股股份有限公司（以下简称"淮北矿业"或"公 | | | | | | 司"）煤种齐全且以稀缺煤种为主、资源禀赋很强，公司为华东地区主要煤 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The annual report of Wolong Resources Group Co., Ltd. for 2024 indicates a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, reflecting challenges in the real estate and mineral trade sectors, while the company aims to enhance operational efficiency and manage costs effectively [1][2]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company reported a total revenue of approximately RMB 3.61 billion for 2024, a decrease of 24.08% compared to RMB 4.76 billion in 2023 [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 40.86 million, down 75.15% from RMB 164.41 million in the previous year [2][3]. - The net asset attributable to shareholders at the end of 2024 was RMB 3.76 billion, a slight decrease of 0.91% from RMB 3.79 billion in 2023 [2][3]. Business Performance - The real estate development and sales segment generated revenue of RMB 1.06 billion, reflecting a 15.35% decline year-on-year [5][6]. - The mineral trade business reported a revenue of RMB 24.77 billion, which is a decrease of 28.62% compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at RMB -565.21 million, indicating challenges in cash management and collection [3][8]. Industry Context - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with a general decline in sales volume and prices, despite government efforts to stabilize the market through various policy measures [4][5]. - The copper concentrate import volume in China for 2024 was 28.11 million tons, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, with an import value of approximately RMB 482.05 billion, up 14.5% from the previous year [5][6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its operational strategies in response to the complex economic environment, including enhancing inventory management and cost control [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation towards renewable energy by acquiring four new energy companies and divesting from traditional mining operations, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [3]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange under the stock code 600173 and is known as Wolong New Energy [1]. - As of the end of the reporting period, the total assets amounted to approximately 8.20 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 5.36% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's operating income for the reporting period reached approximately 2.15 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.38% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The total profit for the reporting period was approximately 131.19 million RMB, which is a decrease of 20.48% compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was not specified, but the company reported a decrease in net profit due to the strategic changes [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was not detailed, but the company aims to improve liquidity through asset sales [3]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - In January 2025, the company initiated the acquisition of four new energy companies, completing the process in March 2025, which will enhance its presence in solar, wind, and hydrogen energy sectors [3]. - The company sold 90% of its stake in Shanghai Mining in June 2025, ceasing its involvement in copper concentrate trading and resolving competition issues with its controlling subsidiary [3]. - The strategic focus is now on optimizing asset structure and enhancing core technological capabilities to support sustainable growth and align with national "dual carbon" policies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning to issue A-shares to specific investors in 2025, which may dilute immediate returns for existing shareholders, and has outlined measures to mitigate this dilution risk [1][2][5]. Financial Impact of the Stock Issuance - The total amount to be raised from the issuance is estimated at 230 million yuan, with the number of shares to be issued being approximately 12.5 million, not exceeding 30% of the total shares before the issuance [2][4]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected at 58.1551 million yuan, with different growth scenarios for 2025 being 20%, 10%, or flat compared to 2024 [2][4]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) under different profit growth scenarios are as follows: - Scenario 1 (20% growth): Pre-issuance EPS is 0.41 yuan, post-issuance EPS is 0.49 yuan [4]. - Scenario 2 (10% growth): Pre-issuance EPS is 0.41 yuan, post-issuance EPS is 0.45 yuan [4]. - Scenario 3 (flat): Pre-issuance EPS is 0.41 yuan, post-issuance EPS remains 0.41 yuan [4]. Necessity and Reasonableness of the Issuance - The issuance is aligned with the company's main business of developing, producing, and selling polyether products, including a new project for carbon dioxide polyether, which supports green economic policies [6][7]. - The project aims to enhance product structure and meet market demand, thereby improving overall competitiveness and profitability [7][8]. Measures to Mitigate Dilution of Immediate Returns - The company plans to implement various measures to enhance operational performance and ensure effective use of raised funds, including strict supervision of fund usage and improving investment decision-making processes [10][12]. - The company will focus on increasing market share, optimizing production processes, and reducing costs to enhance profitability [11][12]. Commitments from Major Stakeholders - The controlling shareholder and management have made commitments to not interfere with company operations or harm company interests, ensuring adherence to measures aimed at mitigating return dilution [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The merger between Hangzhou Hailianxun Technology Co., Ltd. and Hangzhou Steam Turbine Power Group Co., Ltd. is under review, with a focus on the operational performance and sustainability of the latter, which has faced declining profitability in recent years due to increased market competition and policy impacts [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Hangzhou Steam Turbine's main business includes the design, manufacturing, installation, and operation of industrial steam turbines, gas turbines, generators, and hydraulic turbines [2]. - The company's gross profit and net profit have been declining over the reporting periods, with net profits recorded at 708 million yuan, 736 million yuan, and 638 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for the industrial steam turbine business has decreased, with figures of 29.30%, 26.78%, and 21.21% over the same periods [8][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The global steam turbine market is projected to grow from $28.375 billion in 2024 to $33.752 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.19% [6]. - In China, the steam turbine manufacturing market is expected to experience fluctuations, maintaining a scale of approximately 35 to 40 billion yuan due to the dual carbon policy and adjustments in the traditional energy structure [6][7]. - The domestic market is highly concentrated, with major players like Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Hangzhou Steam Turbine holding significant market shares [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the steam turbine market is characterized by a multi-polar and tiered structure, with international leaders like Siemens Energy and General Electric dominating the global market [7]. - Hangzhou Steam Turbine maintains a leading position in the industrial steam turbine sector, with over 50% market share in production and sales [7][9]. - The company has been actively expanding its marketing channels and optimizing its product structure to counteract the pressures from increased competition and market changes [10][12]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on innovation and market expansion, including a "going out" strategy to develop overseas markets, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [13][14]. - A comprehensive service system based on the entire lifecycle of turbine units is being developed to enhance service quality and efficiency [14][15]. - The company is also investing in research and development to adapt to market demands and improve its competitive edge [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices, following a significant drop earlier in the year, raises questions about the potential for a bull market, drawing parallels to historical trends in the past 20 years [1]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - The coking coal market has experienced four notable bull markets since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013 [1]. - The first bull market occurred in 2016, driven by supply-side reforms that reduced excess capacity, leading to a price increase from 515 points to 1676 points within the year [4][5]. - The second bull market spanned from August 2020 to March 2022, where prices surged from 1027.5 points to a peak of 3878.5 points, influenced by post-COVID recovery and supply chain disruptions [10][11]. - The third bull market, from November 2021 to May 2022, saw prices rise from 1783 points to 3297.5 points, driven by international supply chain issues and domestic production constraints [14][15]. Group 2: Recent Market Dynamics - In 2023, coking coal prices rebounded from a low of 1195 points to 2179 points, attributed to low inventory levels and supportive policies in the real estate sector [20][21]. - The market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with expectations of continued price strength due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [25]. - However, the medium-term outlook remains cautious, as fundamental supply-demand dynamics will ultimately dictate market conditions, necessitating close monitoring of production recovery and import levels [26].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the development of integrated circuit testing services and is optimistic about future growth opportunities in the context of new government policies supporting the measurement industry [2][4]. Group 1: Business Development - The company has established advanced packaging testing services and is investing in technology research and development in this area, maintaining a stable growth trajectory [2]. - The company is actively involved in integrated circuit testing, providing services across various stages including design, wafer manufacturing, packaging, and component application [2]. - The recent government policy, "Measurement Support for New Quality Productivity Development Action Plan (2025-2030)," is expected to positively impact the measurement industry, providing a supportive framework for technological innovation and compliance [2]. Group 2: Order and Revenue Outlook - The company reports stable growth in overall orders, with expectations for continued stability in the third quarter despite concerns about potential revenue slowdowns due to order delays [3][4][14]. - The visibility of orders in the third quarter is anticipated to remain stable, with no significant downturn in demand from key downstream industries such as aerospace [4][14]. Group 3: Environmental and Carbon Management Services - The company offers a range of environmental services related to carbon footprint certification and green testing, catering to government departments and enterprises [6]. - The team responsible for carbon management services consists of experienced engineers with qualifications in greenhouse gas verification, indicating a strong capability in this area [6]. Group 4: Market Activity and Stock Performance - As of July 24, the company's stock closed at 17.44 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.81%, and a trading volume of 65,300 shares, amounting to a turnover of 114 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, the net inflow of funds from retail investors was 336.96 million yuan, while institutional investors saw a net inflow of 146.71 million yuan, indicating mixed market sentiment [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in prices across the photovoltaic industry chain and an accelerated overseas expansion by wind turbine manufacturers [2]. - The wind power index has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.14% compared to a 1.23% drop in the latter [5][12]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a notable price recovery, driven by policy measures aimed at curbing excessive competition [6]. Summary by Sections Wind Power: Accelerated Overseas Expansion of Turbine Manufacturers - Domestic turbine manufacturers secured over 34GW of international orders in 2024, with 10.23GW obtained in the first half of 2025 [6][11]. - The export volume of wind turbines from China is expected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 71.9% in 2024 and a further 43.2% in Q1 2025 [6][11]. - Companies like Mingyang focus on the European market, while Envision Energy targets India and other global markets [6][11]. Photovoltaics: Significant Price Recovery in the Industry Chain - The prices of polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon wafers have increased by 5.7% and 13.6% respectively, indicating a recovery in the photovoltaic supply chain [6]. - The current price trends reflect a response to policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring prices remain above production costs [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for substantial changes in supply-demand dynamics to sustain the recovery in photovoltaic prices [6]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen: New Pricing Policies in Gansu - Gansu has introduced a capacity pricing mechanism for new energy storage, which is expected to enhance the economic viability of storage technologies [7]. - The new pricing model aims to create a revenue structure based on capacity and spot market trading, promoting competition and quality in the energy storage sector [7]. - The report suggests that the new pricing mechanism will help establish a more favorable environment for innovative storage solutions [7]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report recommends focusing on companies like Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Oriental Cable, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand and international expansion [7]. - In the photovoltaic sector, it suggests monitoring structural opportunities related to BC industry trends, with companies like Dier Laser and Longi Green Energy highlighted [7]. - For energy storage, it recommends Sunshine Power and Haibo Technology, which are expected to capitalize on overseas market opportunities [7].

Core Viewpoint - The green transformation of bank credit structures is crucial for supporting the green transition and high-quality development of the economy, with a notable increase in green loan balances in China, reaching 36.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 13.18% [1][8]. Summary by Sections International Experience in Green Credit - The global exploration of green finance began in the 1970s, with Germany establishing the first policy-oriented environmental bank in 1974, followed by the U.S. introducing the "Superfund Act" in 1980, which established the polluter pays principle [2]. - The Equator Principles, introduced in 2003, marked the formation of international green credit standards, providing a framework for financial institutions to assess environmental and social risks [2]. Domestic Practice of Green Credit in China - The development of green credit in China can be divided into four stages: 1. Foundation Stage (1995-2006): Initial integration of environmental factors into credit decision-making [3]. 2. Exploration Stage (2007-2011): Green credit became a national environmental economic policy tool, focusing on pollution reduction [4]. 3. System Construction Stage (2012-2015): Establishment of a comprehensive green credit management system [5]. 4. Strategic Deepening Stage (2016-present): Development of a diversified product system for green finance [6]. Challenges in Green Transformation - Despite improvements in the policy framework, banks face several challenges in green transformation, including: 1. Outdated risk pricing mechanisms threatening financial stability [5]. 2. Insufficient market-driven incentives slowing down the transformation process [6]. 3. Deviations in standard execution hindering resource allocation efficiency [6]. 4. Inadequate information disclosure mechanisms exacerbating transparency issues [6]. Green Financial Product System - The balance of green loans in China has steadily increased, reaching 36.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.18%, accounting for 12.7% of total loans [8]. - The issuance of green bonds has also seen rapid growth, with a total of 2,669 green bonds issued by the end of 2024, amounting to 4.16 trillion yuan [9]. Impact of "Dual Carbon" Policy on Credit Structure - The "dual carbon" policy influences credit structures across four dimensions: 1. Household Dimension: The narrative around carbon neutrality drives consumer behavior towards low-carbon products [10]. 2. Market Dimension: Carbon market policies reshape corporate financing environments, increasing costs for high-carbon enterprises [11]. 3. Government Dimension: Environmental tax policies create cost pressures on high-carbon enterprises, encouraging low-carbon investments [12]. 4. Banking Dimension: Targeted tools optimize resource allocation, enhancing the willingness of banks to supply green credit [12]. Future Outlook - Future carbon reduction policies in China are expected to evolve towards deeper market mechanisms and stronger legal frameworks, with an emphasis on aligning environmental information disclosure with international standards [13]. - Commercial banks need to enhance their core capabilities in risk pricing, product innovation, and data governance to effectively respond to the green transformation trend [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for methanol is "Bullish" [7] Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol will likely be in a relatively strong position in the second half of 2025. Supply - side production is less likely to exceed expectations, and there are still factors disturbing the supply such as environmental protection restrictions and geopolitical issues. On the demand side, although the prices and profits of downstream products are expected to face pressure, the high - operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Potential geopolitical disturbances and concerns about Iranian natural gas supply may affect imports and port inventories, leading to a bullish outlook [5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Review - In the first half of 2025 (before the Israel - Iran conflict), methanol futures prices showed an overall downward trend, mainly due to upstream cost collapse and demand - side concerns. The domestic coal price dropped from 760 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 620 yuan/ton at the end of June, compared with around 850 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Methanol downstream demand was weak, with the traditional demand sectors like dimethyl ether, MTBE, and BDO having a downward - trending operation rate. MTO, although with a high operation rate, was in a loss state [16]. 2. Supply - In the second half of the year, the cost side will have limited incremental impact on the overall fundamentals. Coal prices are expected to remain low, so the profit of coal - to - methanol is likely to stay high, and the operation rate will probably remain strong. The market capacity growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be limited (about 3 - 5%). Although the probability of maintenance increases, the operation rate will still be at a high level. It is expected that the production growth rate of methanol in the second half of the year will be 4% [21][24][25]. 3. Demand - The profit of MTO is likely to face long - term pressure and fall into a difficult situation. However, MTO may continue to maintain a high operation rate in the second half of the year due to the synergistic effect of integrated plants. Traditional downstream industries have their profits compressed, which may cause a certain decline in the operation load. For example, dimethyl ether is in the stage of capacity replacement and clearance, formaldehyde is in a situation of oversupply, and MTBE has a high inventory pressure. In emerging demand, DMC's demand support may strengthen in the third quarter, and the demand for methanol as fuel is expected to expand [32][43][51]. 4. Imports - In the second half of the year, many factors may limit the overall increase in imports. Considering the uncertainty of the regional situation, seasonal gas restrictions, and plant load - reduction expectations at the end of the year, the import volume may remain at a historical low. Under the neutral assumption of geopolitical conflict alleviation, the import volume in the second half of the year is expected to reach about 6.5 million tons; under the extreme assumption of Iran completely restricting supply, the import volume may be about 3 million tons [70]. 5. Inventory - The inland inventory is expected to remain at a historical low in the second half of the year due to the increased probability of centralized maintenance and limited new capacity release. The port inventory may decline under the pressure of the import side, and the overall inventory accumulation expectation is limited. It is predicted that the year - end social inventory will be at a historical low of 2.16 million tons [74][78]. 6. Investment Advice - Methanol prices are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile performance. On the supply side, the high operation rate of coal - to - methanol is expected to continue, but the maintenance expectation may affect futures prices. On the demand side, although the profit of MTO and traditional downstream industries is under pressure, the high operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Considering potential geopolitical disturbances and seasonal factors, imports are likely to remain low, and port inventory accumulation is limited. The price is expected to be supported during the third - quarter maintenance period, with the lower support around 2300 yuan and the upper limit around 2600 yuan [81].