Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3507.69 points, up 0.29% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10626.87 points, up 0.36% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2198.44 points, up 0.80% [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4011.25 points, up 0.32% [1] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 988.50 points, down 0.35% [1] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 5970.41 points, down 0.12% [1] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6406.44 points, down 0.02% [1]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a 0.05bp increase, DR007 at 1.47 with a 4.37bp increase, GC001 at 1.49 with a 5.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.51 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 1.80bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.40bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.47 with a 0.15bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 0.10bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3315 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [3] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Tuesday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3965, down 0.43%; the SSE 50 at 2732, down 0.33%; the CSI 500 at 5900, down 0.19%; and the CSI 1000 at 6327, up 0.24% [5] - The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures (IF) was 67470, down 46.5, and the open interest was 243305, down 8.5; for the SSE 50 futures (IH), the trading volume was 32788, down 50.5, and the open interest was 85845, down 12.2; for the CSI 500 futures (IC), the trading volume was 55201, down 44.4, and the open interest was 220939, down 6.6; for the CSI 1000 futures (IM), the trading volume was 136314, down 45.5, and the open interest was 320782, down 8.7 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets was 12087 billion yuan, a decrease of 2199 billion yuan from last Friday. Most industry sectors rose, with the power, grid equipment, household light industry, power supply equipment, diversified finance, real estate development, packaging materials, and public utility sectors leading the gains, while the biological products and medical service sectors leading the losses [5] Group 3: Stock Index Outlook - In the short term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, there is resistance for the stock index to break through further and it may show a volatile pattern [6] - In the long term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real - estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is yet to be finalized, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity easing expectations and changes in the geopolitical situation will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.88%, 8.92%, 5.87%, and 4.58% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 21.78%, 7.93%, 4.25%, and 1.92% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 23.17%, 15.23%, 12.77%, and 10.37% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 31.43%, 20.58%, 16.80%, and 14.00% respectively [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's claims about the success of his administration's economic policies and legislative achievements, particularly emphasizing the "big and beautiful" plan [1] - It highlights the potential impact of the upcoming ADP employment data on market sentiment and Trump's likely reaction, which may involve blaming the Federal Reserve for any negative economic indicators [2] - The article notes that while the bond market is slowly aligning with Trump's views on interest rates, there is still no significant panic or deep concern reflected in current bond yields [2] Group 2 - Critics argue that the high interest rates are not solely the fault of the Federal Reserve but also due to the additional debt incurred by Trump and Congressional Republicans, which adds to the national debt burden [3] - Trump's public relations strategy has been effective in shifting blame for economic downturns to the Federal Reserve, despite the economy not showing signs of collapse yet [3] - The article warns that if the economy falters, Trump's exaggerated claims may backfire, leading to increased pressure on the dollar and bond markets, potentially resulting in higher long-term bond yields [3]

Group 1 - Japanese traditional pension funds are increasingly allocating more capital to alternative assets to enhance returns, with Daiwa House Industry's pension fund reaching 57% allocation to private equity, private debt, and hedge funds as of March [1] - The allocation to alternative assets has risen from approximately 30% when Toru Yamane joined in 2006, with a target of 60% set for 2023 [1] - The fund manages about 587 billion yen (approximately 4 billion USD) and has shown little interest in traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds, which constituted only 1% of its holdings as of March 31 [1] Group 2 - In late May, Japanese government bonds experienced a significant drop due to weak auctions, with 30-year and 40-year yields reaching record highs [4] - Yamane emphasized the importance of diversification to build a portfolio that can withstand major market downturns, stating that the company does not consider shifting assets to government bonds [4] - Despite the overall increase in alternative asset allocation among Japanese pension funds, the average allocation remains at only 20%, significantly lower than Daiwa House's allocation [4] Group 3 - The company's pension plan aims to further diversify its alternative asset allocation, with private assets (including private equity/debt, infrastructure, and real estate) exceeding 30% and plans to increase hedge fund allocation from 14% to 18% [5] - Yamane expressed caution regarding Japanese government bonds, questioning the value of taking interest rate risks for a return of 3% [5] - A survey by J.P. Morgan Asset Management indicated that 30% of 80 Japanese corporate pension and mutual associations plan to increase their allocation to alternative assets, with a focus on lower-volatility private assets [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents basic data including the ChinaBond Composite Index at 254.4, the ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index at 245.4/209.1, the 10 - year inter - bank treasury bond yield at 1.65, and the enterprise/company/convertible bond scales at 70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion respectively [4] Summary by Related Catalog Government Debt Issuance - **Total Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and New Local Bonds**: In the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), it was 2704 billion yuan, and in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22), it was 2048 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [1][7] - **Net Financing of Government Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2190 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 2594 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 6.8 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds [1][7] - **Net Financing of Treasury Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2621 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1351 billion yuan. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] - **Net Financing of Local Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was - 430 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1243 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, 2.1 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][10] - **New General Bonds**: In the 24th week, 13 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 272 billion yuan was issued. The local deficit in 2025 is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] - **New Special Bonds**: In the 24th week, 71 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 425 billion yuan was issued. The planned issuance of new special bonds in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued. The cumulative disclosed acquisition of idle land projects covers 4176 parcels, with a capital scale (including proposed) of about 4564 billion yuan [2][14] - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: In the 24th week, 267 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 527 billion yuan was issued. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][28] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In the 24th week, the net financing was - 6 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it is expected to be - 383 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that May's inflation and export data are weak, leading to a continued loose state of interbank liquidity and a slight decline in government bond yields [1] - The U.S. inflation weakening and cooling employment have expanded expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, resulting in a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.64%, with a change of -1.1 basis points from the previous week [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing probability of global economic recession risks due to uncertainties in the global macro environment and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Domestic monetary policy easing is less than expected, leading to risks of rising funding prices, while the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies is also below expectations, resulting in declining financing demand [1] - The intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts contributes to a complex and severe global political situation, with ongoing deterioration and expansion of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) employs an optimized sampling replication strategy to closely track the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year Treasury Index, selecting highly liquid government bonds to construct its portfolio [1] - The current average duration of the portfolio is 7.6 years, and it publishes a daily PCF list, ensuring transparency in holdings, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors seeking stable returns [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the weekly observation data of government debt, including the net financing and issuance progress of various types of government bonds, as well as the net financing and balance of urban investment bonds [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Government Debt Overall Situation - The net financing of national debt plus the issuance of new local bonds were 214 billion yuan in the 23rd week (6/2 - 6/8) and 268.9 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15). As of the 23rd week, the cumulative general deficit was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 41.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6] - The net financing of government bonds was 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 217.5 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 6.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and national debt [6] National Debt - The net financing of national debt was 19.8 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 26.05 billion yuan in the 24th week. The total net financing of national debt for the whole year is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 2.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][7] Local Debt - The net financing of local debt was 5.05 billion yuan in the 23rd week and -4.3 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Debt - The issuance of new general debt was 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.13 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 35.97 billion yuan, with a progress of 45%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] New Special Debt - The issuance of new special debt was 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.71 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the arrangement for new special debt is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][13] - Special new special bonds worth 26.04 billion yuan have been issued, and land reserve special bonds worth 10.83 billion yuan have been issued. The disclosed projects for acquiring idle land have covered 4,176 parcels of land, with a capital scale of about 45.64 billion yuan [2][13] Special Refinancing Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 2.67 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][27] Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds was -0.97 billion yuan in the 23rd week and is expected to be -2.91 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][28][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, and the overall market may continue a structural trend of index fluctuations and rotation of thematic sectors before the trading volume effectively expands. The bond market has limited intraday trading space, and the yield changes are mainly caused by market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors. The key to boosting domestic prices lies in expanding effective demand. Fiscal policy will increase efforts and improve efficiency, focusing on the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [9][11][21]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy - Strategy Outlook: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Core View: Tariff policy implementation is facing obstacles, and the US economic data and Fed's interest - rate cut plans are uncertain. In addition, geopolitical factors also affect the market. Before the trading volume effectively expands, the structural market of index fluctuations and thematic sector rotation is likely to continue [9]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate weakly [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Strategy Outlook: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. - Core View: The bond market has almost completed one - step pricing, with limited intraday trading space. The yield changes are mainly due to market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors [11]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate weakly [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.5%. The improvement in supply and demand is the main driving force, but it may be a short - term pulse. Enterprises are worried about long - term oversupply [18]. Inflation - In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month; PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The impact of tariff shocks on domestic CPI may be limited, and boosting prices depends on expanding effective demand [21]. Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - From January to April, the year - on - year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded to 1.4%. In April, the profit increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The improvement in profit is mainly due to the increase in profit margins. The profit growth rate shows a differentiation between upstream and downstream, and the export - related industries have improved [24]. Fiscal - From January to April 2025, national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%; expenditure was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [27]. Industrial Added Value - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rate slowed down compared with March, but the industrial production still shows resilience. The slowdown in the equipment manufacturing industry may be due to the decline in export - related production [30]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 3.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 4.0%. The growth rate of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all declined to varying degrees. The real estate investment continued to decline, and the new - house sales and real - estate enterprise funds were under pressure [33]. Social Retail Sales - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 5.1%, lower than market expectations. The growth rates of both necessary and optional consumption declined, and there were differences in the growth rates of different retail channels [36]. Social Financing - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock rebounded to 8.7%. Government bonds were the main support for the increase in social financing. Credit decreased seasonally, and the M2 growth rate rebounded [39]. Import and Export - In April, China's exports were 315.69 billion US dollars, imports were 219.51 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars. The export performance exceeded market expectations, mainly supported by re - export trade. The export growth rates of different trade methods and product categories showed different trends [42]. US Non - farm Payrolls - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.2%. The long - term and short - term unemployment problems showed signs of intensification, and the labor market was gradually cooling down [45]. US CPI - In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable [48]. Weekly Focus - Key economic indicators and events to be concerned about from June 3rd to June 6th include China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US May ISM Non - manufacturing Index, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate, and US May non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate [50].

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the Fed can remain patient and is ready to respond when necessary [2] - US manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in May, with trade-related data highlighting the impact of tariffs [2] - OECD lowered the US GDP forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.5%, expecting no changes in Fed interest rates this year [2] Group 2: Non-USD Major Currencies - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [3] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes indicated that the committee does not see the need for a 50 basis point rate cut, noting that US tariffs have not yet impacted the Australian economy [3] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated there are currently no preset plans for interest rate hikes, which will only be considered if the economy and prices rise again; a bond reduction plan will be reviewed in the next meeting [3] - Japan's Ministry of Finance issued approximately 2.6 trillion yen in 10-year government bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of about 3.66, the highest in nearly a year, leading to a rise in medium to long-term bond prices [3] Group 3: Other Economic Indicators - The OECD projected global economic growth rates of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the March forecast [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3353.07 points, down 0.31% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10051.62 points, down 0.75% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1994.82 points, down 0.88% [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3845.88 points, down 0.33% [1] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 976.73 points, down 0.97% [1] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 5680.67 points, down 0.69% [1] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6031.47 points, down 0.95% [1] Performance Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index had a trading volume of 286.2 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index had a trading volume of 468.57 billion [2] - The North Star 50 Index increased by 0.25% to 1419.41, with a year-to-date increase of 36.77% [2] - The CSI 500 Index had a trading volume of 84.3 billion [2] - The CSI 1000 Index had a year-to-date increase of 1.24% [2] - The CSI 2000 Index decreased by 1.62% to 2546.53, with a year-to-date increase of 8.45% [2]