Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show signs of decline, while consumer sector stability is maintained[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The PPI is projected to decrease by approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) has significantly decreased, with the 1-month HIBOR dropping to approximately 0.7% from nearly 0.9% at the beginning of June, and the overnight HIBOR nearing historical lows at 0.01949% [1][2] - The decline in HIBOR is attributed to the rapid appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, driven by a weaker US dollar and increased demand for the Hong Kong dollar due to substantial inflows from mainland investors into the Hong Kong stock market [1][4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by releasing a large amount of Hong Kong dollars, increasing the banking system's surplus from about 45 billion HKD to 174.1 billion HKD, nearly tripling the liquidity [1][4][5] Group 2 - Low interest rates are generally favorable for the Hong Kong stock market, particularly benefiting interest-sensitive sectors such as banking and real estate, as lower HIBOR rates reduce financing costs [1][8] - The HKMA's intervention is necessary to maintain the USD/HKD exchange rate within the strong side (7.75) and weak side (7.85) limits, which influences liquidity and HIBOR rates [5][6] - The potential for HIBOR to revert to higher levels exists, but it is expected to remain below levels seen in previous years due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued strong inflows into Hong Kong stocks [7][8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, with the consumer and technology sectors becoming key pillars, particularly the consumer sector which has demonstrated strong performance [8][10] - The "three sisters" of Hong Kong consumption stocks have outperformed, with significant year-to-date increases, although their high valuations may lead to cautious investor sentiment [9][10] - Future market dynamics will be influenced by external factors such as US interest rate decisions, trade negotiations, and the overall economic outlook for China [9]

自成立以来，汇添富添添乐双盈累计回报达12.94%（同期业绩基准为10.33%）（数据来源：基金2025 年一季报，截至2025/3/31，基金过往业绩不代表未来，也不预示未来指数或相关基金的表现），基金 年化收益5.78%（同期基准年化为4.65%）（数据来源：年化数据经托管行复核，基准来自汇添富，截 至2025/3/31，过往业绩不预示未来表现）。 文 | 蒋金丽 2021年之后的A股，经历了漫长的震荡市，结构性机会偶现，整体赚钱效应不足。地缘冲突、贸易摩擦 带来的不确定性，让"进可攻，退可守"的"固收+"基金乘势兴起。 进入2025年，宏观叙事再度扑朔起来。DeepSeek年初点燃的科技行情，被对等关税浇了一盆冷水。跷 跷板的另一头，债市经历了2024年的上涨后，十年国债利率持续回落。 迷雾笼罩之际，"固收+"重获热度。据Wind统计，今年一季度"固收+"基金规模增长超1200亿元。 2023年2月1日，汇添富添添乐双盈发行成立，担任基金经理的是以深度价值投资见长，在业内小有口碑 的蔡志文。 他此前管理着两只主动权益基金——汇添富外延增长、汇添富品牌力一年持有，在2020-2021年均斩获 了亮眼的业绩 ...

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - Investment sector sentiment has decreased, while consumption and real estate sectors remain stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices have increased, while non-food prices have decreased; May CPI food prices are expected to be around -1.0% month-on-month, and overall CPI is projected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decrease by approximately 0.2% month-on-month and fall to -3.1% year-on-year[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 6, 2025[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 6 is 2.24%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,101.65[20]

许多人可能都经历过一个困境：想改变颓废的状态，养成良好的习惯，但坚持了一段时间，总是无疾而 终。 比如： 想锻炼写作能力，于是强迫自己每天都要写一千字，哪怕没有表达欲也要硬憋出来，导致最终在痛苦中 无疾而终。 想强化体质，于是要求自己要抽出时间去锻炼、健身，结果每次都需要用意志力跟惰性斗争半天才能出 门，没几天就坚持不下去。 想多读点书，于是参加各种共读活动，孜孜不倦地做笔记、打卡，然而活动结束后就又恢复原先的生活 习惯，久了连之前读了什么都忘记了…… 久而久之，很多人就容易气馁，觉得自己不是这块料，或者给自己贴上懒惰、拖延、不自律……的标 签。 那么，问题出在哪里呢？这种标签究竟对不对呢？ 今天，我想跟你分享关于生活的一个真相，或许能够帮你解决这个问题。 01 首先，我想跟你分享一个很有趣的理论。 可能不少人有过这样的感受：当我们经历了一些非常开心的事情时，比如完成一个大项目、升职加薪、 孩子出生、新房乔迁……我们会感到非常开心。但这种开心通常不会持续特别久，可能过了几天，就会 恢复到之前的状态。 为什么会这样呢？是因为我们非常贪心、不够满足吗？ 02 心理学家发现，这是因为大脑有一个特性：它对于情感的波动 ...

咱们做投资，无论是自己搭配股票、债券，还是买了不同类型的基金，实际上都是在进行一定程度的"资产配置"。比如，你可能计划好了，一部 分资金追求高增长（像股票），一部分资金追求稳健（像债券）。但只要市场还在波动，随着时间的推移，你最初设定的这个资产配置比例，几乎 不可避免地会因为各类资产价格的涨跌而发生变化。 这个比例的变化，看着只是数字的调整，但它可能会悄然影响你的长期投资目标。 它让你的实际风险承受状况偏离了最初的设想。 比如，如果股市一路高歌，股票在你总资产中的占比就会越来越高，整个配置的风险也会随之提 升，可能超出了你当初愿意承担的范围。相反，如果股市低迷，股票占比降低，又可能让你错失未来市场回暖时的收益潜力。这种"风险漂移"是 我们希望避免的。 面对市场波动，如何保持纪律？ 市场的大涨大跌最容易考验人性。涨了怕踏空、跌了怕亏损，情绪一上来，很容易做出追涨杀跌的非理性决策， 反而可能侵蚀长期收益。 能不能把市场的"折腾"变成机会？ 市场波动虽然带来不确定性，但换个角度看，它也可能提供了"低买高卖"的机会。关键在于，我们有没有一套 系统的方法，能帮助我们相对客观地抓住这些机会，而不是凭感觉瞎猜。 今天，我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The importance of domestic demand has become more prominent under external disturbances, highlighting new investment opportunities in the consumption sector [2][5]. Investment Strategy Evolution - The investment strategy has evolved from traditional value investing to a focus on industry prosperity and fundamental analysis, reflecting a deeper understanding of market cycles [3][4]. - The turnover rate has increased, with a greater emphasis on industry conditions rather than solely on undervalued stocks [3]. - A more nuanced understanding of mean reversion has developed, prioritizing industry prosperity before identifying specific investment opportunities [4]. New Consumption Trends - Since 2021, new consumption trends have emerged, enhancing the investability of sectors with strong performance indicators [6]. - Three categories of new consumption investment opportunities are identified: emotional consumption, mature consumption products, and the "going out" consumption sector [6]. International Market Potential - Chinese brands are increasingly entering international markets, demonstrating competitive advantages in various sectors such as milk tea, new energy vehicles, and cultural products [7]. - The "going out" consumption strategy differs from traditional exports, focusing on higher value-added products and showcasing the strength of Chinese brands abroad [7]. Investment Focus Areas - Four key investment directions are highlighted: the internet, emerging consumption sectors (including cultural trends, pets, AI+ consumption, and the silver economy), "going out" consumption, and consumer electronics [8]. - The current portfolio allocation remains cautious, with a stock position of 72.86% of net fund assets, reflecting a stable approach amid economic uncertainties [8]. Market Recovery Signals - Recent economic data indicates signs of recovery, such as increased delivery orders, travel activity, and hiring trends, suggesting potential positive developments in various industries [8].

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3368-3371区域做多，止损在3361，目标看3390-3420，破位3435的话上方看3450-3465. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 国内黄金ETF持仓一季度累计增持23.47吨（较2023年末增长10.8%），显示机构投资者对黄金长期配置价值的认可，但野村证券提示需警惕短期技术性回调 风险：其一，SPDR黄金ETF（GLD）资金流呈现"大进大出"特征，3月净流入超20亿美元后4月净流出超15亿美元，资金博弈加剧；其二，技术指标显示金 价偏离200日均线超25%（布林带上轨外扩），RSI指标进入80以上超买区间，若后续无重大地缘事件催化，可能面临"均值回归"压力。此外COMEX黄金投 机净多头头寸降至14个月新低（截至5月3日当周为11.7万手），显示市场对美联储鹰派政策预期的定价已较为充分，但需警惕"多头拥挤度"下降后的反向波 动风险。 昨日黄金市场延续多头攻势，早盘以3335.8美元/盎 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite the volatility in the US stock market in early April, Deutsche Bank's research suggests that many market movements may have been overreacted and are likely to mean revert [1] - Deutsche Bank's May report indicates that the panic regarding the dollar, US consumer data, and overall confidence in US assets may have been excessive, making valuations in certain sectors attractive [1][2] - The current market conditions reflect emotional swings, transitioning from extreme optimism post-2024 US elections to current pessimism, with many growth and policy expectations having completed a full cycle [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the decline of the dollar and US consumer stocks have been overstated, as the dollar index has experienced 11 corrections of over 10% since 1990, with a 10% drop so far in 2025 [2] - US consumer stocks have significantly dropped since April 2 due to tariff concerns and worries about US demand, with median declines in US consumer stocks being notably higher than their European counterparts [4] - Despite a low US consumer confidence index, retail sales in the US remain strong, growing above trend levels [6] Group 3 - From a relative valuation perspective, certain cyclical US consumer companies, including apparel and essentials, may begin to show investment appeal, as the valuation premium of the US compared to Europe has significantly decreased in some sectors [8] - During the sell-off in early April, no asset truly acted as a "safe haven," including US 10-year Treasury bonds, which behaved more like bonds from struggling emerging markets [9] - The US credit default swap (CDS) spreads increased by 15 basis points last month, reaching the highest level since concerns over the debt ceiling and Moody's downgrade, now close to levels seen in Greece and Italy [11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Interest Rate Price-Volume Multi-Cycle Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses kernel regression algorithms to identify the trend patterns of interest rates, capturing support and resistance levels. It integrates signals from long, medium, and short investment cycles to form a composite timing strategy[11][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Signal Generation**: - Use kernel regression to identify support and resistance levels for interest rate data across different cycles (long, medium, short)[11] - Signals are generated based on whether the interest rate breaks through these levels in an upward or downward direction[11] 2. **Cycle Frequency**: - Long cycle: Monthly signal switching - Medium cycle: Bi-weekly signal switching - Short cycle: Weekly signal switching[11] 3. **Composite Signal Scoring**: - If at least two out of three cycles show a downward breakthrough, the signal is "bullish" - If at least two out of three cycles show an upward breakthrough, the signal is "bearish"[11][23] 4. **Portfolio Construction**: - Full allocation to long-duration bonds when at least two cycles show a downward breakthrough and the trend is not upward - 50% allocation to medium-duration bonds and 50% to long-duration bonds when at least two cycles show a downward breakthrough but the trend is upward - Full allocation to short-duration bonds when at least two cycles show an upward breakthrough and the trend is not downward - 50% allocation to medium-duration bonds and 50% to short-duration bonds when at least two cycles show an upward breakthrough but the trend is downward - Equal allocation across short, medium, and long durations in other cases[23] 5. **Stop-Loss Mechanism**: - Adjust holdings to equal allocation when the daily excess return of the portfolio falls below -0.5%[23] 6. **Benchmark**: - Equal-duration strategy: 1/3 allocation to short, medium, and long durations[23] 2. Model Name: Public Bond Fund Duration and Divergence Tracking - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an improved regression model to dynamically track the weekly changes in the duration and divergence of public bond funds[13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Duration Calculation**: - Median, 4-week moving average, and mean values of the duration (including leverage) of medium- and long-term pure bond funds are calculated[13][20] 2. **Divergence Measurement**: - Cross-sectional standard deviation of fund durations is used to measure divergence[14] 3. **Yield-to-Maturity (YTM) Analysis**: - Median, 4-week moving average, and mean values of YTM (including leverage) are calculated for the funds[20] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Interest Rate Price-Volume Multi-Cycle Timing Strategy - **Long-Term Performance (2007.12.31 to Latest Report Date)**: - Annualized Return: 6.3% - Maximum Drawdown: 1.55% - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 2 - Excess Return: 1.78% - Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 0.92[23][24] - **Short-Term Performance (Since 2023 Year-End)**: - Annualized Return: 8.05% - Maximum Drawdown: 1.62% - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 6.91 - Excess Return: 2.78% - Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 2.85[4][23][24] - **Historical Success Rates (18 Years)**: - Absolute Return > 0: 100% - Excess Return > 0: 100%[24] 2. Public Bond Fund Duration and Divergence Tracking - **Duration Metrics**: - Median Duration: 3.13 years - 4-Week Moving Average: 3.19 years - Mean Duration: 3.4 years - Historical 5-Year Percentile: 91.51%[13][14] - **Divergence Metrics**: - Cross-Sectional Standard Deviation: 2.03 years - Historical 5-Year Percentile: 98.46%[14] - **YTM Metrics**: - Median YTM: 1.99% - 4-Week Moving Average: 2.12% - Mean YTM: 2.1%[20]