Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 国债期货周报 期债显著回调，等待企稳信号 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管： 1、中国人民银行金融市场司副司长江会芬在"债券通周年论坛2025"上表示，正在积极研究推进债券市场对外开放的其 他措施：一是深化拓展境内外金融市场联通合作,二是提升跨境投融资的便利化水平，三是丰富离岸人民币金融市场的产品体系，提升市 场流动性；2、国务院办公厅发文推出新一批稳就业支持政策，其中包括：扩大稳岗扩岗专项贷款支持范围，提高相关企业失业保险稳岗 返还比例，允许生产经营确有困难的企业阶段性缓缴养老保险、失业保险、工伤保险单位缴费部分；扩大社会保险补贴范围及以工代赈 政策覆盖范围和项目实施规模。 基本面：1、国内:1）6月份中国制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，较上月 上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，生产经营活动保持扩张。2）6月C ...

债市早报 资金面边际收敛；多重利空影响下，债市明显走弱 【内容摘要】7 月 10 日，资金面边际收敛，主要回购利率均小幅上行；多重利空影响下，债 市明显走弱；转债市场跟随权益市场有所上行，转债市场个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普 遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【上交所面向投资端机构召开科创板"1+6"政策宣介会】据证券时报，近日，上海证券交易 所面向资本市场投资端组织召开科创板改革"1+6"政策专题宣介会，包括公募基金、证券公 司、保险资管、银行理财子等在内的三十余家市场机构代表近百人参会。下一步，上交所将全 方位多层次加强与市场主体的沟通交流和政策宣贯，凝聚市场共识，继续推动科创板各项改革 措施走深走实，加快构建更有利于支持创新发展的资本市场生态，为培育新质生产力、推动高 质量发展提供强有力的支持。 【国家发改委：以"两重""两新"资金为抓手，加大新型城镇化重点领域投入】近日，国家 发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发展中心表示，锚定到 2035 年基本实现新型城镇化目标，要顺 应规律、把握趋势，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新型城镇化四大行动， ...

2025 年 7 月 11 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、工业硅、多晶硅期货将震荡偏 强 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃期货将偏强震荡 原油期货 将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4000 和 4028 点，支撑位 3972 和 3952 点；IH2509 阻力位 2765 和 2780 点，支撑位 2740 和 2724 点；IC2509 阻力位 5900 和 5960 点，支撑位 5850 和 5823 点；IM250 ...

国内市场综述 震荡攀升 小幅收涨 周四（7 月 10 日）大盘震荡攀升，小幅收涨。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3509.68 点，上涨 0.48%；深成指 收于 10631.13 点，上涨 0.47%；科创 50 下跌 0.32%； 创业板指上涨 0.22%，万得全 A 成交额共 15151 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 20 个行业上涨，其 中房地产、石油石化和非银行金融居前，而汽车、传 媒和计算机则跌幅较大。概念方面，稀土、一级地产 商及房地产精选等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 欧美股市多数收涨 周四（7 月 10 日），道指涨 0.43%，标普 500 指数涨 0.27%，纳指涨 0.09%。其中，标普 500 指数、纳指均 创历史新高。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨 0.42%。中 概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 0.9%。 新闻精要 1. 国家发改委城市和小城镇改革发展中心：以"两重" "两新"资金为抓手 加大新型城镇化重点领域投入 2. 2025 年退休人员养老金上调 2% 3. 商务部：已部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行 动 4. 《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动 ...

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Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.48% to 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.47% to 10631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.22% to 2189.58 points [1] Trading Volume and Sector Performance - The combined trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 151.53 billion yuan. Sectors such as silicon energy, new urbanization, and innovative pharmaceuticals showed significant gains [2] - In Shandong province, nearly 60% of stocks rose, with notable performances including Puliang Software hitting the daily limit, and Donghong Co., Jinding Mining, Shandong Fiberglass, and Wohua Pharmaceutical also reaching the daily limit [2] New Urbanization Initiatives - The new urbanization sector was particularly active, with stocks like New City, Huaxia Happiness, and Chongqing Construction hitting the daily limit. Donghong Co. is involved in municipal infrastructure construction and urban renewal projects [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the goal of achieving basic new urbanization by 2035, focusing on high-quality advancement in key areas [2] Silicon Energy Sector - The silicon energy sector continued to strengthen, with companies like Tuori New Energy achieving three consecutive daily limits. Several silicon wafer companies have raised their prices, with increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% [2] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector was active, with companies like Saily Medical, Lianhuan Pharmaceutical, and Haishike hitting the daily limit. The report from CICC highlighted the international competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs, supported by recent clinical data disclosures [3] - Longcheng Securities noted that the A-share market is steadily rising, breaking previous highs, with a positive trading sentiment and emerging new market leaders [3]

每日市场观察 2025 年 7 月 11 日 【今日关注】 此前关于反内卷高级别会议之后，近日硅片企业又普遍上调硅片报价， 光伏板块在初步上涨之后绝对位置仍然不高，兼具较高的赔率和安全 度。近一阶段稀土行业反复活跃，行业龙头业绩增幅明显，随着后续 行业优化监管，中美之间关系的缓和，以及新能源汽车、机器人、风 电等行业预期向好，行业景气度有望继续改善。 【市场回顾】 市场概况：7 月 10 日，市场午后冲高回落，三大指数小幅上涨，沪指 重回 3500 点上方。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.48%，深成指涨 0.47%，创业 板指涨 0.22%。 【资金面】 主力资金流向：7 月 10 日，上证净流入 212.76 亿元，深证净流入 97.79 亿元。行业板块方面，主力资金流入前三的板块为证券、房地产开发、 化学制药，主力资金流出排名前三的板块为元件、游戏、汽车零部件。 【消息面】 1.北京：拓宽财产性收入渠道 鼓励上市公司合理提高分红率 周四主要市场指数收涨，成交额 1.52 万亿，比上一交易日小幅减少约 100 亿。行业过半数上涨地产、石油、钢铁、金融等行业涨幅居前，汽 车、传媒、军工等行业小幅下挫。 金融板块对指数 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 不锈钢盘面拉涨，现货小幅跟涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-10日沪镍主力合约2508开于119140元/吨，收于121140元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.41%，当日成交量为 102155手，持仓量为65815手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅上冲后横盘振荡，日盘继续横盘振荡振荡，午后快速拉升突破上方阻力后继续上涨， 收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日有所减少，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发 展中心近日表示，锚定到2035年基本实现新型城镇化目标，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新 型城镇化四大行动，为中国式现代化提供有力支撑。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿区降雨仍存，加之季节性台风影响， 装船出货效率迟缓。印尼方面，镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减产得以缓解。7月（一期）内贸 升水维持+24-25。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约450元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上 调，盘面镍价快速回升，重回12万，需求未见明显增长，部分贸易商下调现货升贴水以促成交，下游企业按需采 购为主，现货成交一般。其中金川镍 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to enhance communication with market participants and promote reforms to support innovation and high-quality development [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, targeting to achieve basic new urbanization goals by 2035 [2] Group 2: International News - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive and may need to be lowered if inflation continues to decline [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - On July 10, the bond market weakened significantly due to multiple negative factors, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1.45 basis points to 1.6595% [8] - The convertible bond market saw most individual bonds rise, with 338 out of 469 convertible bonds increasing in value [17] Group 4: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.19% to $66.88 per barrel, while natural gas prices rose by 4.96% to $3.365 per million British thermal units [4] Group 5: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net fund injection of 328 billion yuan for the day [5]