Group 1 - As of March 2025, China has reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $18.9 billion, bringing its total to $765.4 billion, while the UK has increased its holdings by $29 billion to $779.3 billion, surpassing China for the first time in over 20 years [2][4] - China's reduction in US Treasury holdings is a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets and potential financial instability, coinciding with a significant increase in its gold reserves, which reached 73.77 million ounces by the end of April [4][6] - The US faces a severe debt crisis, with total federal debt reaching $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, leading to rising credit risks associated with US Treasury bonds [2][4] Group 2 - China's actions reflect a response to the US's unreasonable tariff policies and demonstrate its determination to protect its economic interests, indicating a gradual and strategic approach to reducing US Treasury holdings [6] - The UK's increase in US Treasury holdings may be an attempt to maintain economic ties with the US and enhance its influence within the dollar system, particularly following recent tariff agreements [6] - The shift in the US Treasury holding landscape signifies not just a numerical change but also a broader transformation in global economic order, with China promoting the internationalization of the renminbi and diversification of its foreign exchange reserves [4][6]

中国在5月15日宣布减持美国国债189亿美元。这一动作，仿佛是一个重磅炸弹，撼动了原本就处于风雨飘摇的美国债务市场，也让特朗普对此感到无比紧 张。这到底意味着什么？背后又隐藏着怎样的复杂利益和未来走向？ 面对中国的这一决定，特朗普自然不会坐视不理。从他近期的外交行程安排上来看，他似乎有意向中国示好。特朗普的"飞来中国"计划，表面上看是为了缓 解日益紧张的中美关系，实际上反映出他对当前美国经济和国际市场的深切忧虑。在美国内部，一方面是高企的债务让人心惊，另一方面是需要融洽国际关 系来提振市场信心。 但是，特朗普能否通过此行略微平息投资者的不安情绪，仍然充满悬念。尤其是在美国即将出台的新一轮减税法案背景下，预计将对财政造成巨大的压力， 加剧美国的财政赤字，这无疑会让市场对美国的信心产生动摇。而如果中国继续减持美债，或许将引发更多国家跟随，这将导致国际金融市场信心的崩溃， 最终形成毁灭性的"连锁反应"。 值得注意的是，英国在美债市场的逆势增持，似乎也是一种不得已的选择。作为传统盟友，英国希望通过维护与美国的经济联系，巩固自己在美元体系中的 影响力。在当前英国经济前景不明朗的情况下，增持美债不仅是为了维持与美国的金融 ...

区域经济结构的深刻变化也在推动黄金市场升温。越南房地产市场交易量大幅下滑，储蓄利率随之走 低，大量资金被迫转向黄金市场；泰国投资者更是打破"高价抛售"的常规，在金价上涨时反而逆向增 持，这一异常现象折射出他们对经济前景的深度忧虑。正如世界黄金协会所指出的，地缘政治冲突的加 剧和全球供应链的重塑，进一步强化了黄金的避险属性。 从国家层面看，各国央行的战略选择同样重要。2024年，全球央行黄金净购买量连续三年突破1000吨， 东南亚各国央行纷纷加速增持黄金。这一趋势与美元信用的削弱密切相关，美联储通过加息和缩表收割 新兴市场，促使各国加快外汇储备多元化步伐。调查数据显示，超过80%的央行计划在未来12个月内继 续增持黄金。 传统文化与市场分化构成了东南亚黄金需求的独特区域逻辑。在马来西亚的传统婚礼中，新娘佩戴的黄 金首饰是家族地位的重要标志；在泰国，佛教寺庙的金色装饰和节庆活动等催生了大量黄金需求；在越 南，黄金佩戴数量成为社会地位的象征。这些文化因素赋予了黄金超越投资品的社会功能。 经济分化则塑造了不同国家各具特色的市场形态。越南和泰国的黄金市场以避险需求为主导，尽管越南 央行抛售黄金在短期内抑制了价格，但房地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market, exacerbated by new tariffs on China and debt monetization policies, raises global concerns about the credibility of US debt, prompting China to reassess its financial strategies and reduce reliance on the US dollar [1][7]. Short-term Impacts - The rise and fluctuation of US Treasury yields reflect market concerns over US fiscal sustainability and debt monetization, impacting China in three main areas: 1. Valuation fluctuations of foreign exchange reserves, with a potential decrease in the value of US Treasury assets affecting overall reserves [2]. 2. Capital flow pressures, as rising yields may attract short-term capital back to the US, increasing outflows from emerging markets and causing potential volatility in the RMB exchange rate [2]. 3. Challenges in liquidity management, as fluctuations in Treasury prices could affect the efficiency of China's foreign exchange reserve management [2]. Short-term Response Measures - To mitigate these impacts, China can adopt three strategies: 1. Optimize the structure of US Treasury holdings by increasing the proportion of short-term bonds to enhance liquidity and payment capacity [3]. 2. Strengthen foreign exchange market intervention capabilities to stabilize RMB expectations and prevent market panic [3]. 3. Diversify foreign exchange reserves by increasing holdings in gold, special drawing rights, and bonds from BRICS nations to reduce dependence on US dollar assets [3]. Long-term Strategies - In the long term, the US may implement two main measures that could further impact the Treasury market: 1. Technical defaults, such as delaying interest or principal payments, which would undermine the credibility of US debt [4]. 2. Accelerated debt monetization, with the Federal Reserve potentially engaging in large-scale bond purchases, leading to dollar depreciation and dilution of creditor asset values [4]. - To address these challenges, China should develop a systematic response capability, focusing on: 1. Conducting stress tests and emergency plans for various scenarios, including enhancing liquidity emergency plans and activating emergency liquidity swap arrangements with commercial banks [5]. 2. Promoting the securitization of infrastructure revenue rights to create a new type of sovereign bond as an alternative to US Treasuries [5]. 3. Accelerating the internationalization of the RMB by expanding the coverage of the cross-border payment system and enhancing digital currency projects with ASEAN and BRICS countries [5]. Progress in Reducing Dollar Dependence - From early 2018 to the end of 2024, China's total holdings of US Treasuries decreased by 35%, with the proportion of Treasuries in foreign exchange reserves dropping from 37% to 24%, and the share of foreign-held Treasuries falling from 18.9% to 8.9% [7]. This indicates substantial progress in reducing reliance on the US dollar and presents an opportunity for China to leverage the situation for further financial strategy development [7].