Group 1: Foreign Trade Data - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Private enterprises showed outstanding performance, with import and export value reaching 12.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, accounting for 57.3% of China's foreign trade [1] - The export scale of high-tech products, new three categories of products, and self-owned brand products from private enterprises reached historical highs for the same period [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry Developments - Chongqing Yixiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is the largest producer of methyl methacrylate (MMA) in China, breaking the long-standing technological and product monopoly held by Japan and Europe [7] - The company achieved its first export of 20 million USD in 2023, showcasing its technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [7] - MMA is widely used in the production of organic glass, automotive and construction coatings, and is a key raw material for optical fibers and optical lenses [9] Group 3: Industry Cluster and Innovation - The chemical industry benefits from extended industrial chains, leading to higher product added value [11] - Chongqing's Changshou district has over 100 new materials enterprises, forming a core industrial cluster in natural gas chemical new materials, silicon-based new materials, and new energy materials [11] - The collaboration among numerous enterprises enhances export capabilities and helps navigate trade barriers, likened to the agility of small boats and the strength of large ships [13]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade maintained stable growth in the first half of the year, with a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1][3]. Group 1: Import and Export Scale - In the first half of the year, China's import and export scale stabilized at over 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [2][3]. - The total import and export value increased by over 600 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with a second-quarter growth rate of 4.5%, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter [3]. Group 2: Export Performance - The export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [4][5]. - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment [5]. Group 3: Import Trends - Total imports amounted to 8.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, influenced by international trade policy uncertainties and falling commodity prices [6][7]. - The import of high-end machine tools and electronic components saw accelerated growth in the second quarter, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [7][8]. Group 4: Private Enterprises' Role - Private enterprises led foreign trade with a total import and export value of 12.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, accounting for 57.3% of China's foreign trade [9][10]. - The number of enterprises with export performance continued to increase, with private enterprises showing strong growth in high-tech product exports [10]. Group 5: Foreign Investment Enterprises - Foreign investment enterprises achieved an import and export value of 6.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [11][12]. - The number of foreign investment enterprises with import and export performance reached 75,000, the highest since 2021 [13]. Group 6: Sino-US Trade Relations - In the first half of the year, trade with the United States saw a total value of 2.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with exports declining by 9.9% [14][15]. - Recent trade talks have led to a recovery in Sino-US trade, with June's trade value showing improvement compared to May [15]. Group 7: Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with exports growing by 4.7% [16][17].

Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down by 2.7% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - The import and export scale stabilized above 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - In the second quarter, the import and export growth rate accelerated to 4.5%, with all three indicators (import, export, total trade) showing positive growth in June [2] - In June, the total trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (7.2% growth) and imports at 1.51 trillion yuan (2.3% growth) [2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export scale surpassed 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history, with a 7.2% year-on-year growth [3] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, with significant increases in high-end machine tools and marine engineering equipment [3] - Private enterprises led exports with 8.52 trillion yuan, an 8.3% increase, while foreign-funded enterprises and state-owned enterprises also saw growth [3] Group 3: Import Trends - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, down by 2.7%, influenced by international trade policy uncertainties and falling commodity prices [4][5] - The decline in import growth was primarily due to a drop in prices for major commodities like crude oil and iron ore [5] - However, there was a rebound in imports of high-end equipment and consumer goods, driven by domestic economic recovery [5] Group 4: Role of Private and Foreign Enterprises - Private enterprises accounted for 57.3% of total foreign trade, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase in their import and export activities [6] - Foreign enterprises' import and export activities reached 6.32 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [7] Group 5: Sino-US Trade Relations - Trade with the US saw a decline, with total trade value at 2.08 trillion yuan, down by 9.3% [8] - Recent trade talks have led to a recovery in Sino-US trade, with June figures showing improvement compared to May [8][9] Group 6: Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan, a 5.7% increase [10] - The growth in cross-border e-commerce highlights its role as a significant trend in international trade [10]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月11日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2506 | 119.450 | 119.590 | 119.720 | 119.640 | 0.270 | 0.23 | ...

增长2.5%，前5月我国外贸保持较强韧性。（新华社） ...

Supply and Demand Analysis - In May, the manufacturing PMI showed stability, with the production index above 50%, while new orders, raw material inventory, and employment remained below the critical threshold[3] - The non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating marginal contraction in services[3] - Real estate investment continues to drag down overall investment, with the construction PMI dropping by 0.9 percentage points to 51%[3] Consumption and Investment Trends - Supported by policy, consumer demand showed improvement, with automobile sales increasing by 26% year-on-year in the last week of May[3] - Real estate sales in 30 cities exceeded 2 million square meters, marking a new high for Q2, with a significant reduction in year-on-year decline[3] - The manufacturing PMI for consumer goods returned to the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in consumer goods production[3] Trade and Export Performance - The external trade situation remained resilient, with the SCFI index rising by 30.7% to 2072.71, and the NCFI index increasing by 51.5% to 1676.25[3] - Port cargo throughput exceeded 270 million tons, showing a month-on-month recovery, indicating strong export activity[3] Economic Outlook and Risks - The economic outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks and potential underperformance of domestic policies[3] - There is a likelihood of reduced contribution from exports to economic growth in the second half of the year, necessitating a reliance on domestic demand to fill the gap[3]

Group 1 - The main shipping index contract increased by 6.00%, currently reported at 2395.4 points, indicating a positive trend in the shipping industry [1] - Following the adjustment of China-US tariff policies, foreign trade enterprises in Xiamen are ramping up production and shipping, with a significant increase in shipping demand to the US [1] - A clothing enterprise in Xiamen reported that over 30% of its foreign trade business is related to the US, highlighting the importance of this market [1] Group 2 - A freight forwarding company in Xiamen noted a surge in daily container movements from 5 to 30, reflecting a "rush to ship" trend for exports to the US [1] - The company also mentioned that booking orders for shipping have been scheduled until the end of the month, indicating strong demand [1] - In Yiwu, a major hub for Christmas goods, production orders have reached a peak, with some companies experiencing warehouse congestion due to high order volumes [1] Group 3 - Data from Yiyu Technology shows that the shipping rate for the Shanghai to Los Angeles route has increased to $3705 per FEU, a 96% rise compared to the previous quote [1] - This significant increase in shipping costs may impact logistics and shipping companies, potentially affecting their profitability [1] - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the shipping and logistics sector include COSCO Shipping Holdings, COSCO Shipping Development, Pacific Basin Shipping, Orient Overseas International, CIMC, and Sea Harvest International [2]

Group 1 - The adjustment of tariffs between China and the US has led to a rapid resumption of trade activities, with many foreign trade companies in Guangdong's Foshan quickly restarting their supply to the US market [1][3] - American trader Mike, a long-time partner of a Foshan automotive parts manufacturer, has expedited cooperation following the tariff changes, emphasizing the urgency to increase orders and production [1][3] - The volume of cargo on the US shipping line has returned to pre-tariff levels within five days of the tariff adjustment, indicating a strong recovery in trade [3][5] Group 2 - In Shenzhen, the shipping and air freight sectors are experiencing a surge in activity, with a significant increase in cargo volume expected in the coming weeks [5][6] - In Xiamen, foreign trade companies are also ramping up production and shipping in response to the tariff reductions, with a notable increase in order fulfillment [6][8] - A clothing company in Xiamen reported that over 30% of its foreign trade business is with the US, and it faced a backlog of approximately 3 million RMB in orders due to previous high tariffs [8][10]

5月11日，由安徽省商务厅、合肥市人民政府联合主办的"徽动消费.皖沪共融"——上海"五五购物节"安 徽专场暨外贸优品中华行(安徽站)活动启动大会在合肥举办。活动现场设置了75个特色摊位，同步组织 安徽外贸优品、老字号、好网货、长三角优质商品等促销活动。今年一季度，安徽省进出口2153亿元， 增长13.1%，高于全国11.8个百分点。外贸经营主体活跃度进一步提升，国际市场多元化布局持续推 进，进出口结构进一步改善，外贸展现出较强韧性。(央视新闻) ...