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大类资产运行周报(20251013-20251017):多重风险事件扰动,美元指数周度回落-20251020
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 11:03
Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20251013 - 20251017): Multiple Risk Events Disturb, Dollar Index Drops Weekly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From October 13th to October 17th, the Sino - US trade friction cooled down, but two US regional banks reported loan fraud and bad debt problems. Globally, the stock market showed differentiation, the bond market rose, and commodities fluctuated narrowly. In China, the stock and commodity markets declined, while the bond market rose. The prices of major asset classes fluctuated greatly due to events such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade friction, and US bank credit risks, and the continuous impact of these events on the market should be monitored [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stock Market Differentiation, Bond Market Rise, Commodity Narrow - Range Fluctuation 1.1 Global Stock Market Overview: US Stocks Lead in Gains - From October 13th to October 17th, after the Sino - US trade friction and US bank risk events eased, the equity market recovered. Most global stock markets closed higher. US stocks led in gains, the Asia - Pacific region performed poorly, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index dropped weekly [9]. - In the Asia - Pacific market, most indices had negative returns, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 3.97%. The Korean Composite Index rose 3.83%. In the European market, the French CAC40 rose 3.24%, while the Greek ASE Composite Index dropped 5.81%. In the American market, the IPSA Chile 40 rose 5.24%. In other markets, the Beirut BLOM rose 2.55% [12][14][15]. 1.2 Global Bond Market Overview: Fed's Dovish Stance - During the week of October 13th - 17th, Fed Chairman Powell indicated an increased risk of employment decline and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction in the next few months. The expectation of a US dollar interest - rate cut increased. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3BP to 4.02%. The bond market closed higher, and globally, government bonds > credit bonds > high - yield bonds [16]. 1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: Dollar Index Drops Weekly - From October 13th to October 17th, due to the expectation of a US dollar interest - rate cut and the impact of US bank risk events, the dollar index dropped weekly. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The dollar index dropped 0.27% [17]. 1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview: International Gold Price Rises Weekly - Demand - expectation concerns pressured international oil prices, which closed lower weekly. Market risk - aversion sentiment strongly supported precious - metal prices, and the gold price rose weekly. Non - ferrous metal prices showed mixed trends, and agricultural product prices generally rose [19]. 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock and Commodity Markets Decline, Bond Market Rises 2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview: Major A - Share Broad - Based Indices Generally Decline - Overseas risk events impacted the domestic equity market, and major A - share broad - based indices generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style had the largest decline. In terms of sectors, banks and coal rose, while media and electronics performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.47% [22]. 2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview: Bond Market Runs Strongly - From October 13th to October 17th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 381.9 billion yuan. The capital market ran smoothly, and the bond market ran strongly weekly. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [25]. 2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview: Commodity Market Declines Overall - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains, while energy performed poorly [27]. 3. Major Asset Price Outlook: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes - Recently, events such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade friction, and US bank credit risks have successively impacted the market, causing large fluctuations in major asset prices. The continuous impact of these events on the market should be monitored [29].
大类资产早报-20251017
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - There is no information about the core views of the report in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: On October 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major economies showed various values and changes. For example, the US was 4.034, with a one - week change of - 0.105, a one - month change of - 0.013, and a one - year change of 0.021. Japan was 3.503, with a one - week change of - 0.091, a one - month change of - 0.042, and a one - year change of - 0.456 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Also on October 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury bond yields of some major economies were presented. The US was 3.480, with a one - week change of - 0.150, a one - month change of - 0.130, and a one - year change of - 0.180. Japan was 0.913, with a one - week change of - 0.012, a one - month change of 0.064, and a one - year change of 0.514 [3]. - **Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: As of October 16, 2025, the dollar - to - major emerging economies currency exchange rates had different values and changes. For the Brazilian real, it was 5.521 on that day, with a one - week change of 2.82%, a one - month change of 2.07%, and a one - year change of - 0.24%. The on - shore RMB was 7.135, with a one - week change of 0.07%, a one - month change of 0.20%, and a one - year change of 1.02% [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, major economies' stock indexes had their respective closing values and changes. The S&P 500 closed at 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 2.71%, a one - month change of 0.31%, and a one - year change of 13.93%. The Hang Seng Index closed at 26290.320, with a one - week change of - 1.73%, a one - month change of 0.34%, and a one - year change of 25.63% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.34%, a one - month change of 0.28%, and a one - year change of 5.19%. The emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index was 1746.620, with a one - week change of - 0.45%, a one - month change of - 0.08%, and a one - year change of 10.98% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3916.23 with a 0.10% increase. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closed at 4618.42 with a 0.26% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 14.40 with a 0.09环比 change. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.26 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was 3.70 with a 0.00环比 change. The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.37 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1098.75, and the 5 - day average was - 803.28. The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fund flow was 70.26, and the 5 - day average was - 110.92 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19311.38 with a - 1417.21环比 change. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5605.67 with a - 467.59环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 28.42 with a - 0.62% amplitude. The basis of IH was - 0.20 with a - 0.01% amplitude [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.165, 105.705, 107.870, and 105.600 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.03% [6]. - The domestic money market's R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3531%, 1.4751%, and 1.5810% respectively, with daily changes of - 12.00BP, 1.00BP, and 0.00BP [6].
大类资产早报-20251014
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on October 13, 2025, including data on government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading across major economies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies are presented, with details on latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield on October 13, 2025, was 4.034%, with a one - week change of - 0.142 and a one - year change of 0.282 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies are shown, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate on October 13, 2025, was 5.521, with a one - week change of 3.31% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Closing prices and percentage changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of major economies' stock indices are provided. The S&P 500 index on October 13, 2025, was 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 1.37% and a one - year change of 14.19% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data on investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices of the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are given, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US investment - grade credit bond index on October 13, 2025, was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.67% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented. The A - share closing price was 3889.50, with a change of - 0.19% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比变化 (comparative change) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are shown. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.19, with a环比变化 of - 0.06 [3]. - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比变化 of several indices are provided. The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of CSI 300 was 3.70, with a环比变化 of 0.00 [3]. - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are given. The latest fund flow in A - shares was 278.56, and the 5 - day average was - 118.93 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volumes and环比变化 of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are presented. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23547.41, with a环比变化 of - 1608.73 [3]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage of IF, IH, and IC are provided. The basis of IF was - 31.38, with a percentage of - 0.68% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are presented, all with 0.00% change. The closing price of T00 was 108.065 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are shown, along with their daily changes in basis points. The R001 was 1.3570%, with a daily change of - 13.00 BP [4].
大类资产早报-20251010
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the performance data of global asset markets, including the yields of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, RMB exchange rates, stock indices of major economies and emerging economies, credit bond indices, as well as trading data of stock index futures and government bond futures [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bonds**: On October 9, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.139%, 4.745%, 3.524% respectively. There were different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the US 10 - year government bond yield was - 0.012, and the one - year change was 0.353 [3] - **2 - year Government Bonds**: On the same date, the 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.630%, 4.000%, 1.994% respectively. The changes in different time periods also varied. For instance, the latest change of the US 2 - year government bond yield was 0.000, and the one - year change was 0.060 [3] Exchange Rates - **US Dollar against Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On October 9, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.369, 17.215 respectively. The exchange rates had different percentage changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 0.89% [3] - **RMB Exchange Rates**: On the same date, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and the middle - price were 7.130, 7.138, 7.110 respectively. They also had different percentage changes in different time periods. For example, the latest change of the on - shore RMB was 0.11% [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On October 9, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc. had closing prices of 6735.110, 46358.420, 23024.630 respectively. The stock indices had different percentage changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the Dow Jones was 0.70% [3] - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The closing prices of the Malaysian stock index, Australian economic index, etc. were 1629.670, 9276.610 respectively on the same date. They also had different percentage changes in different time periods. For example, the latest change of the Malaysian stock index was 1.10% [3] Credit Bond Indices - On October 9, 2025, the indices of emerging - economy investment - grade credit bonds, emerging - economy high - yield credit bonds, etc. were 3517.660, 265.621 respectively. The credit bond indices had different percentage changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For example, the latest change of the emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index was 0.05% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3933.97, 4709.48, 3020.60 respectively, and the percentage changes were 1.32%, 1.48%, 1.06% respectively [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.42, 11.86, 35.83 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes of 0.20, 0.11, 0.60 [4] - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.57 and 2.21 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01 and - 0.16 [4] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, and CSI 300 were 198.77, 238.79, 264.69 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 193.18, - 141.82, 143.56 respectively [4] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the two - market in Shanghai and Shenzhen, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 26531.97, 8622.08, 2319.23 respectively, and the环比 changes were 4717.86, 1975.84, 569.22 respectively [4] - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 20.28, 5.40, - 133.12 respectively, and the amplitudes were - 0.43%, 0.18%, - 1.76% respectively [4] Government Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of government bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.045, 105.730, 107.720, 105.610 respectively, and the percentage changes were all 0.00% [5] - The fund interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4069%, 1.5367%, 1.5790% respectively, and the daily changes (BP) were - 20.00, - 7.00, 0.00 respectively [5]
大类资产早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:36
Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Daily Report on Major Asset Classes [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 4.140%, UK 4.700%, France 3.531%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US -0.036, UK -0.045, France -0.037, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US -0.008, UK -0.012, France -0.028, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US -0.090, UK -0.050, France -0.005, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.389, UK 0.778, France 0.594, etc [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 3.640%, UK 3.983%, Germany 2.020%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US 0.070, UK -0.026, Germany -0.007, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US 0.070, UK 0.008, Germany 0.006, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US 0.120, UK 0.023, Germany 0.069, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.050, UK 0.071, Germany -0.126, etc [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - Rates on September 29, 2025: Brazil 5.322, South Africa ZAR 17.273, South Korean Won 1400.400, etc [3] - Latest Changes: Brazil -0.40%, South Africa ZAR -0.37%, South Korean Won -0.72%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: Brazil -0.24%, South Africa ZAR -0.31%, South Korean Won 0.66%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Brazil -2.15%, South Africa ZAR -1.96%, South Korean Won 0.50%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: Brazil -3.88%, South Africa ZAR -0.45%, South Korean Won 4.88%, etc [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Values on September 29, 2025: S&P 500 6661.210, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46316.070, NASDAQ 22591.150, etc [3] - Latest Changes: S&P 500 0.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.15%, NASDAQ 0.48%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.14%, NASDAQ -0.87%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Mexico Index 6.36%, UK Index 1.13%, France CAC 2.24%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: S&P 500 16.48%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 9.95%, NASDAQ 25.69%, etc [3] Credit Bond Indices - Values on September 29, 2025: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3517.910, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 265.036, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.34%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.13%, etc [4] - One-Week Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.09%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.08%, etc [4] - One-Month Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 1.56%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.51%, etc [4] - One-Year Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.50%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.93%, etc [4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A-share 3862.53, CSI 300 4620.05, SSE 50 2973.04, etc [5] - Price Changes (%): A-share 0.90%, CSI 300 1.54%, SSE 50 1.09%, etc [5] Valuation - PE(TTM): CSI 300 14.19, SSE 50 11.73, CSI 500 34.92, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: CSI 300 0.15, SSE 50 0.05, CSI 500 0.47, etc [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-Year Interest Rate: S&P 500 -0.53, Germany DAX 2.40 [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: S&P 500 0.03, Germany DAX 0.04 [5] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A-share 836.51, Main Board 463.46, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] - Average Values in the Past 5 Days: A-share -302.46, Main Board -264.41, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] Trading Volume - Latest Values: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 21614.61, CSI 300 6933.95, SSE 50 1899.69, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 145.76, CSI 300 946.71, SSE 50 397.81, etc [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis: IF -15.45, IH 2.96, IC -118.36 [5] - Premium or Discount Ratios: IF -0.33%, IH 0.10%, IC -1.61% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 107.660, TF00 105.485, T01 107.325, TF01 105.360 [6] Price Changes (%) - T00 0.00%, TF00 0.00%, T01 0.00%, TF01 0.00% [6] Money Market - Capital Interest Rates: R001 1.3776%, R007 1.8694%, SHIBOR-3M 1.5800% [6] - Daily Changes (BP): R001 -17.00, R007 32.00, SHIBOR-3M 0.00 [6]
大类资产早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:00
Report Date - The report was released on September 29, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 26, 2025, yields in countries like the US were 4.176%, UK 4.745%, etc. Changes varied across different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year). For example, the US had a latest change of 0.005, a one - week change of 0.048, a one - month change of - 0.054, and a one - year change of 0.434 [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 26, 2025, yields such as the US at 3.570, UK at 4.009, etc. had different changes over different periods. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.040, a one - week change of 0.050, a one - month change of 0.030, and a one - year change of - 0.040 [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On September 26, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.344 with a latest change of - 0.37%. Rates against other currencies also had various changes over different time - spans [2] RMB Data - On September 26, 2025, on - shore RMB was 7.135, off - shore RMB was 7.144, the mid - price was 7.115, and the 12 - month NDF was 6.994. Each had different percentage changes over different periods [2] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On September 26, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6643.700, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 46247.290, etc. Indexes had different latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes. For example, the S&P 500 had a latest change of 0.59%, a one - week change of - 0.31%, a one - month change of 2.84%, and a one - year change of 16.50% [2] Credit Bond Indexes - Different credit bond indexes (US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc.) had different latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of - 0.40%, a one - month change of 1.22%, and a one - year change of 3.16% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. had corresponding percentage changes. For example, A - shares closed at 3828.11 with a - 0.65% change [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes were provided for indexes like CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the CSI 300 had a PE (TTM) of 14.04 with a - 0.09环比 change [4] Risk Premium - Risk premium data and its环比 changes were given for some indexes. For example, the S&P 500 had a 1/PE - 10 rate of - 0.56 with a - 0.03环比 change [4] Fund Flows - Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different indexes were presented. For example, A - shares had a latest fund flow of - 1188.84 and a 5 - day average of - 537.15 [4] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes and环比 changes were provided for different markets. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a latest trading volume of 21468.85 with a - 2242.05环比 change [4] Main Contract Premium or Discount - Basis and percentage changes were given for futures contracts like IF, IH, IC. For example, IF had a basis of - 25.05 and a - 0.55% change [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes were provided for treasury bond futures like T00, TF00, etc. For example, T00 closed at 107.680 with a - 0.04% change [5] - Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes were presented. For example, R001 was 1.3344% with a - 47.00 BP daily change [5]
高频经济周报(2025.9.21-2025.9.27):人员流动回落,需求环比改善-20250927
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-27 13:36
Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]
大类资产早报-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:13
Report Information - Report Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Research Center Macro Team of Guanyi Futures [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 24, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.148%, 4.668%, 3.568% respectively. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was 0.041, and the one-year change was 0.443 [2]. 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 24, 2025, the 2-year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.610%, 3.948%, 2.020 respectively. There were also different changes in different time periods. For instance, the latest change in the US was 0.040, and the one-year change was -0.030 [2]. US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On September 24, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, South Korean won, etc., were 5.331, 17.347, 1404.300 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 0.93%, and the one-year change was -2.37% [2]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc., were 6637.970, 46121.280, 22497.860 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was -0.28%, and the one-year change was 18.15% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods for US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond indices, etc. For example, the latest change in the US investment - grade credit bond index was -0.28%, and the one - year change was 3.38% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3853.64, 4566.07, 2939.51 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes. For example, the A - share index had a 0.83% increase [4]. Valuation - The PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 14.10, 11.69, 34.83 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [4]. Risk Premium - The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and German DAX were -0.53 and 2.37 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [4]. Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows into A - shares, the main board, etc., were 930.68, 373.77 respectively, and there were corresponding 5 - day average values [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 23267.84, 6291.62, 1571.95 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [4]. Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC were -36.07, 0.29, -166.71 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.650, 105.565, 107.305, 105.445 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M in the money market had daily changes in basis points [5]
大类资产早报-20250922
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:33
Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]
大类资产早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:26
Report Overview - The report is a macro asset market analysis released by the research center's macro team on September 18, 2025, covering global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures [2][3] Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different trends. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.089 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.060, a one - week change of 0.042, a one - month change of - 0.203, and a one - year change of 0.388 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield was 3.540 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.020, a one - week change of 0.050, and a one - year change of - 0.210 [3] Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.305 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.14% and a one - month change of - 3.24% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.104 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.14%, a one - week change of - 0.24%, a one - month change of - 1.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.13% [3] Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index was 6600.350 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.10%, a one - week change of 1.05%, a one - month change of 3.20%, and a one - year change of 20.64% [3] - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The emerging economies' stock index was 1347.850 on September 17, 2025, with a latest change of 0.59%, a one - week change of 3.09%, a one - month change of 6.98%, and a one - year change of 26.74% [3] Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices, such as the US investment - grade credit bond index (3528.030 on September 17, 2025) and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index (407.110 on September 17, 2025), showed various trends in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The A - share index closed at 3876.34 with a 0.37% increase, the CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02 with a 0.61% increase, etc. [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.16 with a 0.07环比 change, and the PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.47 with a - 0.03环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 was - 0.45 with a - 0.06环比 change, and that of the German DAX was 2.52 with a 0.02环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest fund flow of A - shares was - 198.10, and the latest fund flow of the CSI 300 was 79.42 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23767.38, and the latest trading volume of the CSI 300 was 6084.54 [5] Basis and Spread - The basis of IF was 2.18 with a 0.05% spread, the basis of IH was 3.42 with a 0.12% spread, and the basis of IC was - 7.64 with a - 0.11% spread [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 closed at 108.155, 105.890, 107.855, and 105.760 respectively, with increases of 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.18%, and 0.14% [6] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market were 1.5536%, 1.5493%, and 1.5540% respectively, with daily changes of 5.00 BP, 5.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [6]