Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of domestic whole milk in the Shanghai market dropped to 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week, while the US dollar price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained unchanged at 1,850 US dollars/ton [3]. - In the producing areas, rainfall in northeastern and northern Thailand eased, with a large decline in cup - rubber prices, while in southern Thailand, glue prices rebounded. In Yunnan, the weather was good, glue output was stable, and raw material prices decreased slightly. In Hainan, although rain affected tapping, weak procurement by factories dragged down raw material prices. In Vietnam, glue supply was normal, and stable procurement supported prices [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a 28.92% increase from the previous week but an 8.57% decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a 22.43% increase from the previous week and a 4.98% positive year - on - year growth. Tire enterprises resumed work as planned, driving a significant increase in capacity utilization [3]. - As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons (0.7%) from the previous week. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (0.11%) from the previous period. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 70,800 tons, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 385,200 tons [3]. - In the future, rainfall in major natural rubber producing areas is expected to ease, and tapping operations are likely to normalize. Global natural rubber supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase cycle, putting downward pressure on raw material prices. The terminal tire market lacks highlights, and demand recovery is slow. Tire enterprises continue to purchase natural rubber on a need - to - fill basis, and demand support for raw material prices is limited. Inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and some regions may face inventory accumulation pressure. In the short term, the natural rubber market may be under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price Data - There are charts showing the basis of natural rubber and 20 - standard rubber, including the market mainstream price of Yunnan - produced natural rubber in Shanghai, the closing price of the main contract of SHFE natural rubber, the market price of Thai - produced STR20 dry rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and the closing price of the main contract of SHFE 20 - standard rubber [5][6] Main - producing Countries' Rubber Output and China's Natural Rubber Imports - There are charts presenting the monthly output of natural rubber in ANRPC member countries and China's natural rubber imports from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10] Tire Production - There is a chart showing the monthly tire production from 2021 to 2025 [11][12] Tire Enterprise开工率 - There are charts showing the weekly semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprise开工率 from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16] Tire Enterprise Inventory - There are charts showing the weekly available inventory days of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong factories from 2021 to 2025 [18][19][20][21] Natural Rubber Inventory - There are charts showing the 20 - standard rubber futures inventory, natural rubber futures inventory, natural rubber social inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory, and Qingdao general trade inventory from 2021 to 2025 [24][25][26][27][28][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, market trading activity increased with the return of funds, and the cost - end support continued due to rainfall in overseas production areas affecting raw material supply, leading to a rise in rubber prices. However, as recent rainfall in production areas has weakened, the supply growth expectation is strong, and the natural rubber price is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - Global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has more rain, resulting in slow raw material release and weak raw material prices. In Hainan, the rainfall has improved, and new rubber output is gradually recovering. Some processing plants are more eager to purchase raw materials due to post - holiday replenishment needs [9]. - Qingdao port inventory has continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. The overall warehouse inbound volume increased month - on - month before the holiday, and the outbound volume of general trade increased as downstream tire factories picked up pre - ordered goods, driving the inventory decline [9]. - During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises had a 5 - 8 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume work, the device capacity will be gradually released [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12100 - 12730 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: After the holiday, market trading activity increased, and rubber prices rose due to cost - end support. However, with the weakening of rainfall in production areas, supply growth is expected to be strong, and the price will be range - bound [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has rain - affected raw material release, while Hainan's output is recovering. Qingdao port inventory is declining, and tire enterprise capacity will gradually be released after maintenance [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12100 - 12730 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.9% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 2.07% week - on - week [12]. - As of October 10, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 10 [22]. - As of October 10, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 144390 tons, a decrease of 5420 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 41329 tons, a decrease of 705 tons from last week [27]. - **Spot Market** - As of October 10, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14700 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - As of October 9, the 20 - rubber basis was 801 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of October 9, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 53.9 (- 0.9) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.7 (+ 0.4) Thai baht/kg [39]. - As of September 26, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 15.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.8 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - As of October 9, the price of Yunnan latex was 14000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from last week [42]. - **Import and Inventory** - In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 52.08 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 412.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [46]. - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.01%. Bonded area inventory was 6.94 tons, unchanged from the previous period; general trade inventory was 38.71 tons, a decline of 1.18% [50]. - **Downstream** - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period (20250926 - 1002) and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period (20250926 - 1002) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [53]. - In August 2025, China's tire export volume was 76.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, the cumulative tire export volume was 570.30 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [57]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 10.5 tons (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% from August and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 80 tons, reaching 82.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short - term. The recent inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. Demand - wise, last week tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels, with overall operating levels slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15375 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2945 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 increased. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 1790 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber decreased by 505 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers were 1860 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers were unchanged. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 were unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the basis of 20 - number rubber increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber such as smoked sheets and films decreased, while those of glue and cup rubber were unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires changed slightly [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying changed, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2]. Industry News - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, and that in general trade decreased. The entry and exit rates of warehouses changed. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises changed. The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season, with different situations in Yunnan and Hainan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨扰动仍存，加工厂采购需求旺盛使原料价格坚挺；台风“桦加沙”影响海南产区割胶作业，原料供应收紧 [2] - 近期青岛港口库存延续降库但降幅缩窄，保税库继续去库，一般贸易库延续小幅累库，海外船货到港集中入库，入库量超预期，保税库出库量好于一般贸易库 [2] - 上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动，半钢胎内销雪地胎订单集中排产期支撑开工，全钢胎替换市场需求未明显提升且部分企业外贸出口有压力，部分企业库存有提升迹象，短期企业产能利用率可能小幅下调 [2] - ru2601合约短线预计在15400 - 16000区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12300 - 12800区间波动 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 沪胶主力合约收盘价15570元/吨，环比 - 50；20号胶主力合约收盘价12430元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶1 - 5价差55元/吨，环比 - 20；20号胶11 - 12价差10元/吨，环比 - 35 [2] - 沪胶与20号胶价差3140元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶主力合约持仓量152529手，环比 - 799；20号胶主力合约持仓量51920手，环比 - 2296 [2] - 沪胶前20名净持仓 - 27840，环比 - 1019；20号胶前20名净持仓 - 13209，环比 - 1525 [2] - 沪胶交易所仓单153570吨，环比 - 2260；20号胶交易所仓单44756吨，环比 - 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 上海市场国营全乳胶14850元/吨，环比 - 50；上海市场越南3L 15250元/吨，环比0 [2] - 泰标STR20 1870美元/吨，环比35；马标SMR20 1870美元/吨，环比35 [2] - 泰国人民币混合胶14880元/吨，环比100；马来西亚人民币混合胶14830元/吨，环比100 [2] - 齐鲁石化丁苯1502 12100元/吨，环比0；齐鲁石化顺丁BR9000 11700元/吨，环比0 [2] - 沪胶基差 - 720元/吨，环比100；沪胶主力合约非标准品基差 - 740元/吨，环比5 [2] - 青岛市场20号胶13220元/吨，环比40；20号胶主力合约基差790元/吨，环比75 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 泰国生胶烟片市场参考价59.35泰铢/公斤，环比 - 0.38；胶片市场参考价57.3泰铢/公斤，环比0 [2] - 胶水市场参考价55.3泰铢/公斤，环比0；杯胶市场参考价50.8泰铢/公斤，环比0.35 [2] - RSS3理论生产利润151美元/吨，环比 - 7.6；STR20理论生产利润 - 5美元/吨，环比12 [2] - 技术分类天然橡胶月度进口量11.31万吨，环比 - 0.88；混合胶月度进口量26.84万吨，环比0.89 [2] - 全钢胎开工率65.66%，环比0.07；半钢胎开工率73.66%，环比0.2 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 全钢轮胎山东库存天数39.13天，环比0.3；半钢轮胎山东库存天数46.02天，环比0.08 [2] - 全钢胎当月产量1303万条，环比28；半钢胎当月产量5806万条，环比109 [2] 3.5 Option Market - 标的历史20日波动率15.59%，环比 - 0.13；标的历史40日波动率15.17%，环比 - 1.25 [2] - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率23.31%，环比0.36；平值看跌期权隐含波动率23.33%，环比0.36 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 截至2025年9月21日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存46.12万吨，环比降0.36万吨，降幅0.76%；保税区库存6.94万吨，降幅5.07%；一般贸易库存39.18万吨，增幅0.04% [2] - 青岛天然橡胶样本保税仓库入库率增加0.59个百分点，出库率减少2.91个百分点；一般贸易仓库入库率增加1.32个百分点，出库率增加1.78个百分点 [2] - 截至9月18日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率72.74%，环比 + 0.13个百分点，同比 - 6.92个百分点；全钢胎样本企业产能利用率66.36%，环比 + 0.05个百分点，同比 + 6.18个百分点 [2] 3.7 Suggested Attention - 周四隆众轮胎样本企业开工率 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased, and most enterprises are expected to maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and make up for previous order gaps. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,750 - 16,300 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,590 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 also changed to varying degrees [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market and international markets showed different trends. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers were 1,870 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the market showed different changes. The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the STR20 theoretical production profit was - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, a decrease of 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased. The all - steel tire operating rate was 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points. The inventory days, production volume of all - steel and semi - steel tires also changed [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset, as well as the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options, showed different changes. The historical 20 - day volatility was 17.14%, down 0.33 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility was 19.62%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber, rainfall in different regions has different impacts on rubber tapping. As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.95% compared with the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 8.32%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07%. The inventory utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. With the reduction of precipitation in domestic production areas, the supply increased significantly. Overseas production areas were affected by rain, leading to high raw material prices. The production scheduling of downstream enterprises was better than expected, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. The inventory in the middle - stream continued to decline. However, the overall sentiment in the commodity market weakened, causing rubber prices to fall from high levels. In the short term, due to factors such as the weakening of precipitation in production areas, strong cost support, a slight decline in middle - stream inventory, an increase in downstream operating rates, and weakening commodity market sentiment, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, the weather in Yunnan improved, and the supply - side pressure eased, but the strong demand for raw materials from processing plants supported a slight increase in raw material prices. In Hainan, the weather was good, and raw material output increased seasonally. In Thailand, continuous rain affected rubber tapping, leading to a shortage of raw material supply and rising prices. In Vietnam, the weather improvement was limited, and the shortage of raw materials continued [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules in the next period, with only small fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The warehouse receipt inventories of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the futures exchanges also decreased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread narrowed slightly, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts widened [3] - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, the theoretical production loss of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan narrowed, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in a loss range [3] - **Valuation**: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - **Commodity Market**: It is neutral. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the yield of US Treasury bonds decreased, and the risk appetite in the financial market increased. However, the domestic commodity market temporarily lacked driving forces, and the market sentiment was weak [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. Considering various factors, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Sentiment and Price Trend**: The market sentiment cooled down, and rubber returned to a weak state. This week, natural rubber rose first and then fell. As of September 12, the RU main contract closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 3.09% week - on - week, and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, down 4.09% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices fell slightly [9] - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract decreased significantly, and the total position of NR decreased slightly [16][23] - **Spread on the Futures Board**: The RU - NR spread widened slightly [30] 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: The rainfall in production areas decreased [37] - **Production and Export of Main Producing Countries**: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 5.443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.54%. From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [72][85][92] - **Middle - Stream Inventory**: China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. As of September 7, 2025, the social inventory was 1.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons, or 0.57% [100][107] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tires increased. This week, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [108][117] - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market**: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded. In August, the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased significantly year - on - year [123] - **Tire Export**: From January to July, the export volume of tires was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [132] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex decreased [141]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Supply in Yunnan is increasing, while in Hainan, rainfall has disrupted tapping and slowed the seasonal increase in raw materials. Some factories are competing to buy raw materials, and the purchase price of latex has been raised. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the destocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, the destocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as some enterprises resume production after maintenance, but the increase in production may be limited due to some enterprises' production control plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,800 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,550 - 13,200 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,905 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract were 150,967 lots, up 372 lots; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract were 73,296 lots, up 1,326 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 30,105 lots, up 1,015 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 15,223 lots, down 156 lots. - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, down 2,310 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, down 907 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,005 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,253 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 633 yuan/ton, up 136 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.12 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.15 Thai baht. - The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.4 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 14.97%, down 0.24 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 18.46%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. 3.7 Suggestion Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply in Yunnan is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price is firm. The raw material output in Hainan is seasonally increasing, but the factories are not willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, and the purchase price of latex is lowered. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the de - stocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, as tire factories become more risk - averse, the de - stocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow month - on - month. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as the production of maintenance enterprises resumes, but the increase in the start - up rate may be limited due to the general shipment of some enterprises and production control plans within the month. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,200 in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 150,595 lots, down 1,149 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 71,970 lots, up 1,042 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,120 lots, up 2,955 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,067 lots, down 1,107 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 155,250 tons, down 1,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 47,678 tons, up 604 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 940 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,389 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 654 yuan/ton, up 274 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.22 Thai baht. The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.75%, up 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.12%, up 0.26 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.1%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 7th to 13th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with a slight increase in the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in central Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, with an enhanced impact on tapping. As of September 7th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. As of September 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Short - term**: RU is neutral - biased long, NR is neutral. As of August 29, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened. RU's recent frequent rainfall in production areas hindered tapping, leading to tight raw material supply and strong glue prices, with a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR was affected by typhoons in Vietnam, with slow supply increase in overseas main production areas, stronger Thai cup - lump prices, and a slight reduction in dark - colored rubber inventory. However, tire开工率 declined, semi - steel tire inventory digestion was slow, and tire exports over - drafted subsequent demand, and domestic demand awaited verification during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. It is judged that RU prices will fluctuate widely this week, and NR prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Medium - to long - term**: RU is neutral - biased short, NR is neutral - biased short. The factors affecting long - term trends are similar to short - term ones, mainly considering the supply - demand relationship in the tire market and the impact of weather on rubber production [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Data** - **Prices**: As of August 29, Thai cup - lump price was 50.5 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht/kg from last week; Thai glue price was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht/kg from last week. Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. International prices: Thai standard price was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Indian standard price was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week; Thai mixed price was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Malaysian mixed price was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [21][71][82]. - **Spreads**: As of August 29, the RU - NR spread was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and it is expected to continue widening. The Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 409.7 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 454.65 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan/ton from last week. The RU09 - 01 spread was - 975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [4][94][109]. **Supply - related** - **Production Areas Weather**: During the period from August 26 to September 2, Vietnam was affected by typhoons "Jianyu" and "Lanhu". The estimated rubber production loss due to heavy rainfall was about 0.29 - 0.48 tons, which will be released after the weather improves. Yunnan's rainfall gradually subsided, while Hainan was more significantly affected by typhoon "Lanhu", with expected increased rainfall that would hinder tapping [10][31]. - **Thai Supply**: Thai weather was normal, raw material prices increased marginally, and production was stable. The Thai Rubber Authority (RAOT) launched a plan to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, aiming to increase prices. The first batch of 400 tons of cup - shaped rubber will be shipped in September this year, and commercial shipments are planned to start in October 2025, with production increasing to 2,400 tons [4][21]. - **Ivory Coast Exports**: In July 2025, Ivory Coast exported 2.85 tons of natural rubber to China, a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29% and a year - on - year increase of 92.59%. From January to July 2025, Ivory Coast's total exports of natural rubber to China were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 9.61 tons compared to the same period, with a total year - on - year increase of 52.73% [26]. **Demand - related** - **Tire Industry**: As of August 29, the semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, a decrease of 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66%. Due to anti - dumping measures in the EU, there was a rush to export, over - drafting subsequent orders, and downstream tire factories were pessimistic, making short - term inventory digestion difficult. As of August 28, the whole - steel tire开工率 was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. In July 2025, the export volume of Chinese whole - steel tires was 45.44 tons, a decrease of 4.72 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. Enterprises' exports remained active, domestic sales were stable, and it is expected that the开工率 will improve in September [55][61]. - **Inventory**: As of August 24, the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of August 29, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 60.23 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 7.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 52.91 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory in Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the next period [4][48][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with a slightly reduced decline rate. The inbound volume increased month - on - month, but the outbound volume increase was average. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement was relatively moderate, and it is expected that the inventory at Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the short term. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operated stably last week, while some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment also operated stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still have a certain impact on short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,520 - 13,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of No. 20 rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber was 3,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 143,220 lots, up 2,236 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 38,853 lots, down 2,509 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,691 lots, down 1,523 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber was - 7,238 lots, down 857 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 167,920 tons, down 3,160 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber were 45,764 tons, up 102 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 770 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,034 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 324 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.23 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 227.4 US dollars/ton, down 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.8 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, down 0.91 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.8%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.87%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.12%, up 0.71 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.14%, up 0.73 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas with heavy rainfall were mainly in southern Thailand, southern Vietnam, and southwestern Cambodia, which increased the impact on tapping work. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, also increasing the impact on tapping work. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [2]