以前币安现货➕合约，别说60%溢价，10%溢价我都要干个几m套利，现在我真是慌的一b。生怕自己上去了。就是那条鱼。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market data is bearish, with inventory pressure mainly on off - balance - sheet materials. Attention should be paid to the off - balance - sheet material destocking of the Steel Union sample this week. - Recently, the decline in steel mill hot metal production has alleviated inventory pressure, mainly affecting off - balance - sheet material production cuts. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products in the Steel Union sample is higher than the output, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the plate inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and the winter storage pressure is higher than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively cut production in winter. - The supply of iron elements in the January contract is in a loose pattern, and the recent decline in hot metal production suppresses iron ore prices. Unilateral trading of rebar and hot - rolled coils should focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils can be maintained. [2] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in global shipments last week but a significant increase in arrivals at 45 ports. The demand side is weak as steel mill profit margins have dropped significantly, hot metal production has fallen from its peak, and steel mills' restocking demand is weak. - The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering, but there is still inventory pressure on plates. Port inventory is accumulating, and the inventory pressure is increasing. - The previous macro - positive factors have been digested. The decline in steel prices, hot metal production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The driving force for iron ore is weak. Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines for now, with a reference range of 760 - 810. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - The coke futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend. The mainstream steel mills accepted the third round of coke price increases on November 4 and implemented them at 0:00 on the 5th, with a still - existing expectation of further increases. - The supply side is supported by the rebound in coking coal prices. After the coke price increase, losses are narrowing, and production starts are increasing. The demand side is affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, with a significant decline in steel mill hot metal production, weak steel prices, and low steel mill profits, which suppress coke price increases. - The overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level, with steel mills destocking and coking plants and ports accumulating inventory. The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view for the fourth quarter. Speculative trading can go long on coke 2601 at dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be adopted, but beware of large price fluctuations. [7] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, and downstream restocking demand still exists, but traders are becoming cautious due to the rapid price increase. - The supply side is expected to improve as some停产 mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are resuming production, but the output recovery is limited. The import of Mongolian coal has decreased since October but rebounded this week, with tight port resources and strong Mongolian coal quotes. - The demand side is affected by production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, with a significant decline in hot metal production, a slight increase in coking plant production starts, and weakening steel mill restocking demand. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing at a medium level, with mines, ports, and coal - washing plants destocking and coking plants and coal - washing plants accumulating inventory. Unilateral trading can go long on coking coal 2601 at dips, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, paying attention to price fluctuations. [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. [2] Cost and Profit - The cost of billet and steel production decreased. The profit of various steel products also declined, such as the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and the profit of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 13 yuan/ton. [2] Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, with a growth rate of 1.5%. The production of the five major steel products increased by 10.0 to 875.3 tons, with a growth rate of 1.2%. Rebar production increased by 2.7%, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.3%. [2] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.6%. Rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 to 602.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.1%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.3 to 406.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.0%. [2] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.3%, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 916.4 tons, with a growth rate of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 6.2 to 232.2 tons, with a growth rate of 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.2 to 331.9 tons, with a growth rate of 1.6%. [2] Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of iron ore spot and futures decreased slightly. For example, the price of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.0, with a decline rate of - 2.4%. [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4 tons, with a growth rate of 58.6%. The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.2%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, with a growth rate of 10.6%. [4] Demand - The weekly average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5%. The weekly average 45 - port ore - clearing volume decreased by 16.2 to 320.2 tons, with a decline rate of - 4.8%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.0%. [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 to 14714.08 tons, with a growth rate of 1.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.5%. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke contracts increased. For example, the coke 01 contract increased by 16 to 1269 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2%, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 24 to 1753 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The coking profit decreased by 11, and the sample coal mine profit increased by 39, with a growth rate of 7.9%. [7] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 851.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%. [7] Demand - The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5%. [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0 tons, with a growth rate of 0.9%. The coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 59.9 tons, with a growth rate of 2.1%, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 4.1 to 629.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.6%. The coking coal inventory of the full - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5 tons, with a growth rate of 2.2%, and the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 13.4 to 796.3 tons, with a growth rate of 1.7%. [7] Supply - Demand Gap - The weekly coke supply - demand gap increased by 49.2% to - 3.6 tons. [7]

https://t.co/U91AUEYaqT有可能是有些人买了 NFT 套差价套出事了Yuyue 🥊 (@yuyue_chris):每次 SOON 爆拉都会有人去扫 SOON 的 NFT 😂 有长期看好的可以去 magic eden 上扫，从现在的爆空行情来说我个人是不建议去套保做空对冲吃 NFT 和对应代币的差价的，头铁的可以试试好几个月了可能有些小伙伴已经忘记在哪领 @soonsvm_cn ...

Jelly1.2亿刀持仓，这深度。我怕adl先撤了，套利的自己看着办吧。 https://t.co/HVbrrWFPyW ...

我也说了呀，mmt这种币安现货，一晚上合约拉20倍，历史上有没有的。但是如果你按照这种规律去套，那最后不就死了。就像3.12之前，btc当天跌30%，第二天是100%反弹，然后你按照这个规律，当天8300-5500，跌了35%你3倍杠杆做多。第二天跌到3200。你2倍杠杆都快没了。黑天鹅就是不可预见，套利只是为了赚点小钱。不是为了搏命。RaysunXBT (@geniusXie9589):@dotyyds1234 怎么识别庄盘和散步盘啊，这个mmt是看空投数量和筹码吗，判断很多筹码在项目方手里，以及看合约持仓量，md，前几天信誓旦旦和套利团队说没见过哪个币一夜能爆拉十倍的，只要我们十倍爆仓应该就问题不大，我想问龙王假如我们把报警装置做好比如设置拉到五倍的时候就电话叫醒，这种好吗，还是从根本上降 ...

Risk Management & Trading Strategy - Previous trading involved 5x leverage, now reduced to 005x leverage [1] - Past strategies included arbitrage, inter-exchange trading, and large spread positions [1] - Current risk control is prioritized due to market uncertainty [1] Market Warnings & Losses - Warnings were issued regarding Xpl, sapine, and pumpbtc [2] - Several large accounts collectively lost over 10 million due to MMT [2]

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月4日 | 网材产业期现日报 | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 削值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 231 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3145 | 3166 | -21 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3168 | 3189 | -21 | 52 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3079 | 3106 | -27 | 141 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3330 | -20 | 15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3250 | -20 | -୧2 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3310 | ...

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - The author claims expertise in trading small-cap cryptocurrencies, citing high win rates [1] - The author removed COAI from their watchlist on October 18th after its second decline, viewing it as a risky investment [1] - The author considers trading COAI similar to engaging in high-risk behavior with minimal potential gain [1] - The author suggests that the initial profitable phases of trading certain cryptocurrencies, like MYX and COAI, are over [1] Risk Assessment - The author implies that some cryptocurrency projects are akin to "民工找鸡" (migrant workers seeking prostitutes), suggesting low quality or high risk [1] - The author warns against investing in projects with potentially detrimental outcomes, comparing it to contracting a disease [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. It is expected that the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil will recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar at 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened. Consider that coal production continues to be reduced, and the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil increased from 3305 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products changed slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased, while the profit of some coal - related indicators increased. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, an increase of 1.0%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, an increase of 2.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with the range referring to 780 - 850. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of iron ore increased, and the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 yuan/ton to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, an increase of 1.6%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decrease of 19.5% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decrease of 7.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month. The inventory of beneficial ores of steel mills increased, and the inventory pressure increased [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1700 - 1850. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, but pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, and pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1748 yuan/ton to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal increased from 1242 yuan/ton to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coking coal decreased due to safety and environmental reasons in some areas. The production of coke also decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decrease, but there was replenishment demand after the festival [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of steel mills decreased. The overall inventory of coke was slightly reduced, and the overall inventory of coking coal was slightly increased [6].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but the smelting profit is compressed. If the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains the export enthusiasm, and it's difficult for overseas inventories to grow. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - environment remains favorable. [4] Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $212.89/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,400 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 128,753 lots, and the open interest was 120,693 lots. The highest price was 22,440 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,290 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,500 tons, up 1,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,250 tons, down 1,800 tons from the previous trading day. [3]