还有，在某种意义上，慢牛行情也说明了市场对后市的运行存在一定的认识分歧，因此每上一个台阶都 需要有充分的换手，很难形成单边持续拉高的局面。这也就要求市场需要保持较大的成交量，换手率会 较之前明显偏高。近段时间沪深两市日均成交金额大都在2万亿元的水平上下，应该说是一个不低的水 平，在之前的盘整行情中，单日成交金额通常很难持续达到8000亿元以上。也因为成交量比较大，这就 需要足够的增量资金进入。 到这个时候，市场上的人们几乎都相信这是牛市来了，对行情高点的预期也越来越高。尽管如此，就 2025年前8个月的股市走势来说，虽然的确有牛市的模样，对于最具有标志性意义的上证综指而言，涨 幅也不过15%左右，这应该说是有点"慢牛"的样子，事实上此时的舆论中，很多也是谈到A股市场是在 走慢牛行情。当然，8月份也有一段时间，创业板、科创板指数快速拉升，然而此后不久就出现了大 跌，连续多日的阴线是近期行情中未曾出现过的，客观上也是从侧面提醒人们：这个市场只能走慢牛， 否则很容易翻车。 在这里需要说明的是，所谓的"慢牛"行情，虽然并没有严格的定义，但从投资者的普遍认知而言，应该 并不仅仅是指股市温和上涨，其内涵还是相当丰富的。譬 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced fluctuations on September 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.30% to 3820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.04% to 13070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.16% to 3091.00 points, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] - The total trading volume was 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 817.2 billion yuan from the previous day, suggesting reduced market activity [1] Sector Performance - The sectors with net inflows included non-ferrous metals, environmental protection, and media entertainment, while software services, automotive, and semiconductors saw net outflows [1] - Notable gainers included energy metals, tourism, photolithography materials, and engineering machinery, while sectors like robotics, PEEK materials, and diversified finance faced declines [1] Market Sentiment and Trends - The recent market fluctuations are interpreted as a temporary adjustment rather than a signal of a market downturn, with the current bull market expected to continue [2] - The market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with the index just above the previous high points, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][2] Institutional Behavior - The market is largely influenced by institutional investors, with significant trading volumes indicating a shift in positions rather than a fundamental market decline [2] - Institutions are engaging in stock rotation, with a focus on acquiring undervalued stocks while selling off those that have risen too high [2][3] Future Outlook - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to lead to a temporary outflow of funds as investors return capital, but this is not seen as detrimental to the overall market outlook [3] - The market is anticipated to stabilize around key support levels, with opportunities for investors to enter positions once the current volatility subsides [4]

牛市旗手——券商板块出现了罕见一幕。 9月17日，券商指数涨0.52%，42只指数成份股中涨多跌少，仅7家券商当天收绿，在下跌的7家券商 中，包括国泰海通、中信证券、招商证券以及国信证券分别下跌0.99%、0.99%、0.96%、0.95%。 随着整个市场的反弹，距离自"924"以来，上证指数涨幅也有40%，市场不乏止盈声音，尤其权重股的 下跌，市场的第一反应就是猜测大资金获利了结。 从资金流向来看，券商等非银领域在当日资金净流出，非银金融行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净 流出资金52.29亿元，其中，非银金融行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超亿元的有10只，净流出资 金居前的有中信证券、国泰海通，净流出资金分别为27.01亿元、12.28亿元。此外，招商证券、东方证 券、太平洋等券商净流出超4亿元。 从4家下跌的头部券商走势上来看，一是没有明显利空的情况下，跌幅出奇一致；二是4只个股均在尾盘 阶段围绕着1%横盘震荡。 牛市走出来大券"伤"，背后原因是什么？引发了股民的各种讨论与猜测。 从盘面来看，上述几家券商股被卖盘大单压制。截至收盘，中信证券在28.99元位置，"卖一"尚有107万 手大单，卖盘金额达3 ...

下午，A股突然快速跳水，原因是什么？ 实际上我看了一圈消息面，显得很风平浪静，几乎没有什么利空，那么唯一能解释的，就只有以下逻辑了： 1、今天早盘指数上涨的时候，盘面就有些不对劲了，你会发现还是那些行业龙头在持续拉升指数，比如说中芯国际带动寒武纪，带动了科创板指数大涨， 从而对沪指和创业板指数形成了拉动，表面上看起来市场的涨势非常明显，而实际上一些不利的信号已经浮出水面了。 比如大金融当中的券商，以证券公司指数来说，开盘的半个小时就下跌了1.5%，还有像四大国有银行的跌幅都在1%左右，这多少说明市场情绪的晴雨表已 经率先出现了消极信号，要知道每次行情起来之前，都是券商先走稳，之后才有指数的向上格局，而下跌行情也一样，券商开启下挫模式的时候，或者说整 体趋势变弱时，即便是市场拉升也往往走不了多远。 各位可以去看看最近这段时间证券的走势，其实早就步入了调整，只是大的指数一直被行业龙头牵着持续向上，这才使得指数始终处于缓慢的滞涨势向上。 2、大金融为什么在目前位置出现走弱呢？因为从盘面观察，包括最近券商的向下，以及银行股的回撤，多少有点被动的意思，这话怎么讲呢，我感觉似乎 有只无形的手在刻意的压着，包括昨天大家热议 ...

Market Overview - The market showed a strong rebound in the early session, with the ChiNext Index recovering from a dip and the CSI A500 Index rising by 0.57% [1] - The chip industry chain experienced rapid growth, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw a collective decline [1] ETF Performance - Several ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index saw slight increases in trading volume, with 12 ETFs exceeding a trading volume of 100 million yuan, and 4 surpassing 2.7 billion yuan [1] - Specific trading volumes for A500 ETFs included 3.848 billion yuan for A500 ETF Fund, 2.849 billion yuan for CSI A500 ETF, and 2.762 billion yuan for A500 ETF Southern [1] Investment Sentiment - Analysts indicated that the current valuation of A-shares remains attractive, with future "anti-involution" policies and demand-side policies being crucial for determining the market's upward potential [1] - The influx of household savings into the market is expected to support the strengthening of market indices, suggesting that the foundation for a slow bull market still exists [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed resilience amidst a generally subdued Asia-Pacific market, with three major indices rising, although the number of stocks rising was slightly less than those falling, indicating market differentiation and style rotation [3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, supported by the influx of household savings into the capital market, which is crucial for the market index's strength [3] - The sectors performing well included optical electronics, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries, while sectors like precious metals, retail, and travel showed weaker performance [1][3] Group 2 - The recent net inflow of global funds into the A-share market is attributed to the acceleration of household savings transitioning to the capital market, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1] - The market is anticipated to experience new investment opportunities amidst structural optimization, with close attention needed on policy changes, funding conditions, and external market developments [1] - The current valuation of A-shares remains attractive in the medium to long term, with future "anti-involution" policies and demand-side policies being critical factors for determining the market's height [3]

中原证券认为，周三，上证指数早盘探底回升，午后高位窄幅震荡；深证成指、创业板指早盘探底回 升，午后持续上扬。沪深两市成交金额连续多日突破2万亿元。盘中多元金融、光学光电子、光伏设备 以及电池等行业表现较好；贵金属、商业百货、化肥以及旅游酒店等行业表现较弱。全球配置资金净流 入A股市场，居民储蓄正在加速向资本市场转移，形成持续的增量资金来源。美联储释放降息信号，全 球流动性预期宽松，美元走弱利于外资回流A股。市场将在震荡中孕育新的投资机会，在结构优化中把 握市场机会，预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化情况。 财信证券认为，周三，在亚太市场整体偏低迷的背景下，A股和港股展现出较好韧性，不过美中不足的 是A股在当日三大指数收涨的背景下，上涨家数略少于下跌家数，反映出市场分化以及风格轮动的特征 仍较为明显。短期内，指数层面大概率维持震荡趋势。中长期而言，当前A股估值仍有吸引力，后 续"反内卷"政策及需求端政策将是决定A股市场高度的重要因素，居民储蓄存款入市将是市场指数走强 的重要支撑，本轮慢牛行情的基础仍然存在。继续维持指数震荡偏强运行、投资容错率将提升、积极参 与A股市场的判断 ...

探七轮美联储降息规律，迎全球"Risk on"行情 20250917 摘要 1. 1989-1992 年的衰退式降息，共进行了 23 次，总计 675 个基点。当 时油价腰斩，对美国经济造成冲击。初期风险资产回调，但随着经济企 稳和流动性宽松，新兴市场如恒指、大宗商品出现反弹。 2. 1995-1996 年的预防式降息，由于墨西哥比索危机蔓延，美联储进行 预防式降息。这期间 A 股、港股、美股及商品普遍上涨，美债收益率下 行。 3. 1998 年的亚洲金融危机，美国本身没有巨大的经济风险，但为了预防 金融危机蔓延，美联储进行了几次小幅度的预防式降息。这期间亚太市 场表现最好，如韩国和港股。 4. 2001-2003 年的衰退式降息，由于互联网泡沫破灭，美联储进行了 13 次总计 550 个基点的大幅度衰退式降息。在这一时期，大部分风险资产 回落，仅黄金和债券表现较好。 5. 2007-2008 年的次贷危机，同样属于衰退式降息阶段，风险资产及商 品价格大幅下跌，而黄金和债券收益率表现最佳。 6. 2019-2020 年的疫情冲击期间，美联储再次采取了紧急措施，对新兴 市场及商品造成冲击，但黄金与债市表现较好。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a rebound after a dip, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experiencing fluctuations, while sectors like automotive, internet services, robotics, and computer equipment performed well [1] - Global capital is flowing into the A-share market, with an acceleration of household savings moving towards capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1] - The expectation of a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar is likely to facilitate foreign capital returning to the A-share market [1] Group 2 - The A-share market continued its volatile trend, but individual stocks were active, and trading volume slightly increased ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [2] - The current valuation of A-shares remains attractive in the medium to long term, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition and demand-side policies being crucial for the market's future performance [2] - The influx of household savings into the market is expected to support the strengthening of market indices, indicating that the foundation for a slow bull market still exists [2]

Group 1 - The driving force behind the current market trend is the participation of rational funds, high-net-worth individuals, and corporate clients, leading to a significant institutional characteristic of incremental capital [1] - The current funding structure indicates that the market will primarily focus on high-prosperity industry trends or assets with sustainable cash returns, particularly in resources, new productive forces (AI, innovative drugs), and overseas expansion [1] - If the consensus on the nature of the market (structural bull) is established, funds seeking yield elasticity are likely to either maintain stable positions or engage in high-low trading within prosperous sectors, rather than blindly expanding into other sectors [1] Group 2 - The A-share index is currently in a consolidation phase, with the potential for directional selection depending on recent domestic and international events [2] - The attractiveness of current A-share valuations and the impact of "anti-involution" policies and demand-side policies will be crucial for the market's future performance [2] - As the National Day holiday approaches, a decrease in trading willingness is expected, potentially prolonging the market's consolidation phase [2]