CRIC披露最新数据显示，截止2024年末TOP100房企土储总量收缩明显：总土储货值25.17万亿元，同比下降13%；总土储建面15.73亿平米，同比下降 12%。 具体到房企来看，百强房企中有96家房企总土储货值下降，降幅超过20%的房企数量占比达到15%。 不过，由于房企销售降幅大于土储总量收缩的速度，房企仍然面临较大的存货去化压力。百强房企截止2024年末的土储货值去化周期加权值以6.93年创历 史新高。货值规模在1000亿至3000亿房企的去化周期高达9.01年。 房企的投资逻辑被重构，货值规模高不再是优势，而小体量、健康的存货储备或是保障企业稳健运营的关键。 百强总土储货值同比降13% 龙头房企"瘦身"明显 百强房企总土储货值和建面双降。 截止2024年末，TOP100房企总土储货值和总土储建面分别为25.17万亿元和15.73亿平米，较去年分别下降13%和12%。 自房地产行业开启新一轮"去库存"以来，百强房企总土储货值自2020年达到峰值后逐年下降，到2024年百强房企总土储货值较2020年高峰期已下降了 45.2%。 2024年总土储货值排名前十的房企中，货值规模下降较大的分别为万科地产、碧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has emerged as a new focus for market speculation, with significant gains in real estate ETFs, indicating a shift in investor interest towards this industry [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The real estate ETF fund (515060) and real estate ETF (512200) both saw half-day increases of 1.72% and 1.7% respectively, leading the market [1][3]. - The real estate ETF (512200) has a large scale of 4.739 billion units, with a half-day trading volume of 161 million yuan, tracking the CSI All Share Real Estate Index [3]. - The real estate ETF (159768) recorded a half-day increase of 0.76%, with a scale of 1.265 billion units and a trading volume of 17.1127 million yuan, tracking the CSI Mainland Real Estate Theme Index [6]. - The real estate ETF (159707) experienced a half-day increase of 0.68%, with a scale of 859 million units and a trading volume of 14.8376 million yuan, tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "de-inventory" strategy in the real estate sector is primarily driven by a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing and an extended inventory clearance cycle [3]. - Anticipation of more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, along with new policies aimed at improving housing quality, is expected to further stimulate and release demand for improved housing, supporting stable industry development [3]. Group 3: Major Constituents of Indices - The top five constituents of the CSI All Share Real Estate Index include leading companies such as Poly Developments (10.13% weight), Vanke A (9.17% weight), and China Merchants Shekou (6.43% weight) [4]. - The CSI Mainland Real Estate Theme Index also features major companies like Poly Developments (14.80% weight), Vanke A (14.20% weight), and China Merchants Shekou (14.16% weight) [7][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that local governments are accelerating the issuance of special bonds directed towards the real estate sector, with a notable increase in the proportion of these bonds allocated for land reserve projects [1][3][6] - In April, the total amount of special bonds issued by local governments reached 176.3 billion yuan, with 71.7 billion yuan (40%) allocated to real estate-related fields, marking an 8 percentage point increase from the previous month [3][6] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds in April amounted to 21 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative total of 51.7 billion yuan for the year, indicating a significant focus on land acquisition and development [2][6] Group 2 - The provinces of Hunan, Shandong, and Xiamen have notably increased their issuance of real estate special bonds, collectively accounting for 74% of the new bonds in this sector in April [8][11] - Among the 336 billion yuan of special bonds primarily directed towards real estate in April, 62% was allocated for land reserves, highlighting the emphasis on land acquisition [11][14] - The recovery of idle land is seen as a crucial driver for stabilizing the real estate market, with the potential to significantly impact the overall market if a portion of the total land reserve area can be activated [14]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high on May 7, driven by policy catalysts, with the real estate sector leading the gains [1] - The real estate ETF fund (515060) saw an increase of over 3% in early trading, with stocks like Debi Group (300947), Sanxiang Impression (000863), and Tianbao Infrastructure (000965) hitting the daily limit [1] - The National News Office reported that the balance of real estate loans increased by over 750 billion yuan in Q1, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [1] Group 2 - The government plans to introduce a series of financing systems to support the new model of real estate development, aiming to stabilize the market [1] - A reduction of 0.25 percentage points in personal housing provident fund loan interest rates is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually [1] - Open-source securities suggest that the "de-inventory" strategy is primarily due to the reversal of supply-demand relationships and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate "de-inventory" strategy is primarily driven by the reversal of supply-demand dynamics and declining sales data, leading to an oversupply of commercial housing and an extended inventory digestion cycle [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current real estate cycle has seen a significant change in supply-demand relationships, officially entering a de-inventory phase as of July 2023, with over 30 months of continuous decline in sales volume and price [2][4]. - The scale of housing and inventory in this cycle is larger compared to previous downturns, with substantial monetary and fiscal policy support already in place since 2024 [2][4]. Group 2: Policy and Quality Improvement - The focus of housing development has shifted from mere availability to quality, with government initiatives aimed at increasing the supply of "good houses" and enhancing construction standards [2][3]. - New national standards for residential projects, effective from March 31, 2025, will enforce stricter requirements on various aspects of housing construction, leading to improved quality in new residential buildings [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and a good grasp of improvement-oriented customer demand, such as Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [1][4]. - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and New City Holdings, are also highlighted [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4].

Group 1 - The supply-demand relationship has changed, leading to a prolonged decline in both volume and price in the current real estate cycle. The central government has officially entered a destocking cycle as of July 2023, with significant policy support and a longer duration of declining sales data compared to previous cycles [2][7][26] - The concept of "good houses" has emerged, shifting the focus from mere availability to quality. The government has emphasized increasing the supply of quality housing, with new standards set to enhance residential construction requirements [2][31][35] Group 2 - The real estate market is transitioning from "having" to "quality," with increasing demand for improved housing conditions. Data from the 2020 census shows an average of 3.18 rooms per household and 37.76 square meters per person, indicating progress in housing quality [3][45] - The aging of existing housing stock, primarily built between 1990 and 2014, is expected to drive ongoing replacement and upgrading demand as homeowners seek better living conditions [3][46] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with strong credit ratings that can cater to improving customer needs, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development. Additionally, firms benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are highlighted [4][60][61]

导 语 地市供求规模延续同比缩量，专项债提速助力供给侧加快"优结构、提质量、稳市场"。 ◎ 文 / 马千里 2025年4月，土地市场成交规模同比降幅进一步扩大。据月末快报数据，4月土地成交建筑面积同比下降 23%，降幅较上月全月扩大了12个百分点；成交环比3月同期上升50%，主要是由于3月基数过低所致。截 至4月25日，本月土地供应建筑面积4354万平方米，环比上升2%，同比下降27%。随着非核心城市土地 成交占比上升，本月平均溢价率9.9%，重新降至10%以下，但一二线城市平均溢价率分别为13%和14%， 已经连续4个月双双高于10%。4月份以来，中央和地方持续积极推进稳市场新政落地，强调进一步释放 房地产市场潜力， 协同推进政策实施和预期引导， 据自然资源部本月内发布的不动产登记相关数 据，"交房、交地即交证"等土地开发流程改革亦在快速推进。 供求： 延续同比低位， 截至2025年4月25日，本月土地供应建筑面积4354万平方米，同比下降 27%，环比上升2%。成交2698万平方米，同比下降23%，环比上升50%。 。 热度 ： 核心城市热度延续。 平均溢价率为9.9%，回落至10%附近，主因三四线等非热 ...

老潘说 岁末年初，大家都非常关注 2025年房地产，如何走向？ 眼下大多数老百姓对就业，收入乃至经济缺乏信心，所以都看空房地产走向。 眼下政策单项看都是对的，但放在一起未必就效果好，我们更需要 从整个行业高度去统筹谋划房地产2025年 房地产"保量"战役 ，这才是保25年房价的关键。 如果2025年房地产销量继续下探，那么房价就必然守不住，房价守不住，房地产止跌回稳就守不住，就会浪费 924救市的前期努力。 前天1月12日，重庆市原市长黄奇帆，在一场峰会上，以 "以改革来化解难题，以开放促进发展"为题 ，对未来 房地产做出了重新研判。老潘特别分享，很多判断应该对地产人心中的困惑有所答疑。 （来源：六里投资 报 ） 而从专业机构和从业者看，老潘观察眼下无论是国外机构如高盛、国内证券和地产专业机构，还是开发商从业 人员，大家都难言丝毫乐观，即使924救市三连涨后，大家对 2025年房地产还是判断将继续下行。 虽然下降幅度会收窄，但 下降趋势短期难以扭转。 的确， 20 多年高歌猛进积累的房地产病根，哪有一个 924 救市就能立马扭转乾坤？ 的确，眼下 24 年 10 月到 12 月仅凭 3 个月量涨，就评判房地产 ...