Market Overview - The overall market has seen an increase, currently rated at 4.3 stars [1] - Small and mid-cap stocks have experienced a slightly higher increase compared to large caps [2] - Value style has seen a slight increase, while growth style has increased more significantly [3] - The ChiNext index has risen nearly 2%, and the higher-valued Sci-Tech board has seen a minor increase [4] - Hong Kong stocks exhibit greater elasticity compared to A-shares [5] - Following a period of decline, Hong Kong stocks have rebounded significantly today, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 2% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3% [6][7] Earnings Reports - Recent quarterly reports from listed companies have continued the profit growth trend observed in Q2 [8] - A comprehensive analysis of the Q3 earnings growth for major A-share and Hong Kong indices will be shared after the end of the month [9] Market Volatility - In a bull market, fluctuations are normal, as evidenced by past bull markets in 2007 and 2015, which experienced several corrections of several percentage points [10] - Since last year, the CSI All Share Index has increased by nearly 60% [11] - The significant gains occurred during two specific periods: the last two weeks of September last year and the third quarter of this year, accounting for about 7% of the time [13] - Other periods have been characterized by sideways movements or corrections [14] - For instance, A-shares experienced a 15.1% correction in early October 2024, followed by various corrections in subsequent months [15][16][17][18] Long-term Trends - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 74% since last year, with notable gains following the Spring Festival and during the last two weeks of September [20][21] - The volatility of Hong Kong stocks is greater than that of A-shares, with significant corrections recorded [23][24] - The data indicates that while corrections vary in magnitude and duration, they ultimately lead to recovery and higher peaks, reinforcing the notion of long-term index growth [26][27] Investment Strategy - The focus should not be on predicting the magnitude of each correction but rather on identifying low valuations and high earnings growth rates, which increase the likelihood of significant market movements [32] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term perspective, focusing on good valuations and strong earnings growth, as short-term fluctuations are often noise that does not impact long-term returns [34][35] - A calm mindset is essential for investors, emphasizing the importance of looking beyond short-term market fluctuations [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, Sino-US frictions deepen, affecting the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to adjust, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds, and still has upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation, foreign capital inflow, and bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom line for the stock index. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - Future index performance depends on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the index can maintain relative strength [9]. - It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market falling significantly. For example, the ChiNext Index dropped 5.71% and the STAR 50 Index dropped 6.16%. The performance of global indices also varied, with the Nasdaq rising 2.14% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling 7.98% [12][17]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, the trends were differentiated. A few sectors such as coal, banks, and food and beverages rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications fell significantly [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds pushed up M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. By the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [15][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.0% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The trading volume (MA5) of the two markets decreased to around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened was 1.57 million, 2.86 million, 3.06 million, 1.02 million, 1.555 million, 1.6464 million, 1.9636 million, and 2.6503 million respectively [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For example, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.51, with a percentile of 82.67, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.95, with a percentile of 83.75 [36]. - The stock - bond ratio and its percentile of major stock indices were also presented, which can be used to evaluate the investment value of stocks relative to bonds [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverages were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the CSI 300 Index, the weights were more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3%, a CPI increase of about 2%, and proposed a moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were proposed [51][52]. - US Fed policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered with additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market has experienced a decline, with the CSI All Share Index dropping by 2.55%, returning to a rating of 4.3 stars, similar to its position in early September [1][2]. Market Performance - All market segments, including large, mid, and small-cap stocks, have seen declines, with small-cap stocks experiencing the most significant drop [3]. - Value and dividend styles have remained relatively stable with smaller fluctuations, while growth styles, such as those in the ChiNext and STAR Market, have dropped more than 3% [4][5]. - The ChiNext reached a high valuation post-National Day, followed by a 12% correction, while the STAR Market, with even higher valuations, corrected by 14% [6]. Stock Performance Trends - In the second and third quarters of this year, small-cap and growth stocks outperformed the broader market and value stocks by 30-40% [7]. - During periods of volatility, small-cap and growth stocks tend to exhibit greater fluctuations [8]. Market Volatility and Recovery - Historical data indicates that even in significant bull markets, such as those in 2007 and 2015, there were multiple corrections of several percentage points [13]. - The recent correction in the CSI All Share Index has seen a decline of approximately 6% from its peak, comparable to the fluctuations observed in early September, but not as severe as those in April and January [16]. - The expectation is that indices will eventually recover from these fluctuations and reach higher levels [17]. Valuation Insights - Concerns have been raised regarding the valuation of technology stocks in the Hong Kong market, which, despite low price-to-earnings ratios, have seen significant price increases from their bear market lows [21][22]. - The technology sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2024, with projected earnings growth exceeding 100% in the first half of 2024-2025, marking the highest growth rate in five years [30]. Earnings Growth and Sustainability - The recent surge in earnings for Hong Kong technology stocks is attributed to cost-cutting measures and one-time investment gains, which may not be sustainable in the long term [37][38]. - The growth rate of earnings for these stocks has already begun to slow down as of the second quarter of this year [42]. Index Valuation Summary - The article provides a detailed valuation table for various Hong Kong indices, indicating that the market has returned to a rating of around 3.8-3.9 stars after recent corrections [12][45]. - The valuation metrics for different indices, including price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, are presented, highlighting the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [46].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of A-shares, highlighting the rotation between growth and value styles, with value stocks currently showing strength and returning to normal valuations after a period of underperformance [4][5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market experienced a slight decline, with the CSI All Share Index down by 0.44% [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks showed slight gains, while small-cap stocks fell by over 1% [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market saw minor fluctuations, closing with little overall change [7]. Group 2: Style Rotation - A-shares exhibit characteristics of rotation between growth and value styles, with growth stocks significantly outperforming value stocks from 2020 to 2021, while the opposite trend has been observed from 2022 to 2024 [8][9]. - In the first three quarters of this year, growth stocks surged, while value stocks showed only modest gains [10]. - After the National Day holiday, growth stocks began to decline while value stocks started to rise [13]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The 300 Value Index has returned to normal valuation levels, with some dividend and free cash flow stocks still undervalued but approaching normal valuations [14]. - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend indices, indicating their current earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and other metrics [40]. Group 4: Long-term Performance - Value style funds have demonstrated a slow bull market trend over the years, with significant cumulative gains since 2019, outperforming many global indices [15][17][19]. - The article notes that both growth and value styles have shown long-term upward trends, but their volatility and return characteristics differ significantly [25][28]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of considering both growth and value styles when they are undervalued, suggesting that investors can benefit from holding either style over the long term [38][39]. - It highlights that value style investments are generally easier to manage, with lower volatility and consistent returns, while growth style investments require more precise timing for entry and exit [31][33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing structural growth rather than a broad-based bull market, driven by factors such as the decline in RMB and USD interest rates, as well as the year-on-year profit growth of certain stocks [37][38]. Market Performance - The overall market showed a low opening but ended with an increase, closing at 4.2 stars [1]. - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks experienced similar upward movements [2]. - Value styles, including dividends, have been consistently rising [3]. - Growth styles initially fell in the morning but turned positive by the afternoon [4]. - Hong Kong stocks outperformed A-shares in terms of growth [5]. Characteristics of Bull Markets - Bull markets are characterized by rapid increases rather than slow, steady growth, with significant gains occurring in short bursts [9][12]. - Historical bull markets have been mostly structural rather than broad-based, with different styles leading at different times [14][16]. - Bull markets often experience intermittent pullbacks, typically following a pattern of "advance three, retreat one" [20][21]. - Long-term trends show that market indices tend to rise over time, with each bear market's bottom being higher than the previous one [27][28]. - Investor behavior tends to exacerbate short-term volatility, with many chasing gains during market peaks [30][32]. Current Market Outlook - The current bull market is not over but remains structural, with specific sectors likely to continue performing well [37]. - The recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has been influenced by declining interest rates and profit growth in certain sectors [38]. - Future market movements will depend on the trajectory of USD interest rates and potential economic challenges [39].

Market Overview - The overall market experienced a decline, with a rating of 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks saw less decline compared to small and mid-cap stocks [2] - The market continues to exhibit style rotation, with significant drops in growth style stocks [3][4] - The ChiNext and STAR Market fell by 4% recently [5] Style Performance - Growth style stocks faced substantial declines, while value style stocks remained relatively stable [6] - Recently, previously underperforming "old economy stocks" have shown an overall increase [7] - Indices focusing on value, dividends, and free cash flow have seen overall gains [8] - The 300 Value Index has returned from undervaluation to normal levels [9] Investment Opportunities - There are still some undervalued sectors, particularly in consumer industries, that have started to gain traction [11][13] - The Hong Kong market reflects similar trends, with stable dividends and declines in technology growth stocks, which have not yet returned to undervaluation [14][16] - The volatility in the Hong Kong market has been greater than in the A-share market this year [17] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy includes a pause on regular investments in the index-enhanced advisory portfolio as it has returned to normal valuation, with plans to resume when it returns to undervaluation [20] - The active selection portfolio continues regular investments, while the monthly salary investment portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [20] - The monthly salary portfolio features a "low buy high sell" strategy and a cash flow distribution function [20] Fund Performance - The performance of the China A500 and China Dividend indices has returned to normal valuation, with plans to pause investments until they reach undervaluation again [26] - The China A500 has achieved a profit of 22%, while the China Dividend index has seen a profit of approximately 6% [26] - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in long-term investments, highlighting that opportunities will continue to arise [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the intensifying Sino-US friction impacts risk appetite and affects the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to adjust, but the decline may be weaker than in April, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds, maintaining upward momentum [3] - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is favorable for RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflow, bringing new incremental funds. Current policies for stabilizing the capital market are positive, with a clear bottom line for the stock index. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. After the risk - free rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle [9] - Future index trends depend on trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above two trillion, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on technology growth sectors with earnings certainty such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation and allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rose first and then fell, and technology stocks adjusted. The Nasdaq index dropped 2.53%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.43%, and the Hang Seng Technology index declined 5.48%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, while the ChiNext Index dropped 3.86%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 2.85% [12][16] - Among industries, the 32 Shenwan primary industry indices showed divergent trends. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, coal, and steel rose significantly, while sectors like media, electronics, and power equipment led the decline [16] Liquidity - In August, the growth rate of social financing declined, and the "gap" between M1 and M2 narrowed. The 8 - month difference was 2.8 percentage points, indicating increased capital activity. The new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 483 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month, the first year - on - year decrease in 8 months [14][17] - The narrow - sense money M1 was 111.23 trillion yuan in August, with a year - on - year growth of 6.0%, the highest since May 2022. The growth rate of M1 has accelerated, and the "gap" between M1 and M2 has been continuously narrowing since April [17] Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets increased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The monthly new account openings showed fluctuations, with 157000 in January, 283000 in February, 306000 in March, 192000 in April, 155500 in May, 164640 in June, 196360 in July, and 265030 in August. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating sufficient liquidity to support the index [27] Index Valuation - As of October 10, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. The latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.68, with a percentile of 83.21, and the PB of the entire A - share market was 22.46, with a percentile of 87.81. Among major stock indices, the valuation percentiles ranked as CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 50 > SSE 300 [34][35] Index Industry Weight - As of June 30, 2025, the weights of banks, non - bank finance, and food and beverage in the SSE 50 were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics sector became the fourth - largest weighted industry. The weights of the CSI 300 were more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics [44][45] - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance, and those of the CSI 1000 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computers [45] Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic important policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 7 - 8%, the CPI increase at around 2 - 8%, proposed a moderately accommodative monetary policy with timely reserve requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and a more proactive fiscal policy with a deficit ratio of about 4% and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the State Council Information Office meeting announced a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the provident fund rate, and the establishment of a 300 - billion - yuan service consumption and pension refinancing loan [50] - In September, the State Council Information Office meeting summarized the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan and set the tone for the 15th Five - Year Plan. It continued to deepen the reform of the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange, and promoted the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market [51] - The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in September. As of October 12, the probability of another rate cut in October by the Fed exceeded 80%, and there are still two expected rate cuts this year [52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various stock markets during the recent holiday period, highlighting the stability of A-shares and the fluctuations in Hong Kong and U.S. markets, while also providing an updated valuation table for investors to consider. Group 1: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced overall gains during the holiday, but there were slight declines on the following Monday and Wednesday [7][9]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.1%, and the H-share Index decreased by 0.33% [9]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index showed resilience, increasing by 0.75% [10]. - The gains made during the holiday will be reflected in the fund net values on October 9, combining holiday performance with the market's performance on that day [11][12]. Group 2: U.S. and Other Overseas Markets - Global stock markets saw slight increases during the holiday period [13]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.39%, indicating minimal volatility [15]. Group 3: A-share Market - A-shares did not trade during the holiday, but there were indicators from overseas markets tracking A-shares [16][17]. - The FTSE A50 index futures saw a minor decline of 0.13%, while the U.S. market's CSI 300 index fund dropped by 0.49% [19][21]. - These movements reflect overseas investors' perceptions of A-share fluctuations during the holiday [22]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of knowledge and courage in investing, suggesting that understanding market trends can help investors navigate short-term volatility [25]. - It encourages a mindset where perceived market downturns can be viewed as opportunities for patient investors [25]. Group 5: Valuation Table - The valuation table provides various metrics such as earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield for different indices and funds, indicating investment opportunities [27]. - Green items in the table are considered undervalued and suitable for regular investment, while yellow indicates normal conditions, and red signifies overvaluation [29].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market showed a positive trend with significant increases in various indices, indicating a favorable investment environment ahead of the upcoming holidays [1][4][5]. Market Performance - The market opened lower but closed higher, with all market caps (large, medium, and small) experiencing gains [1][3]. - The ChiNext Index saw a substantial rise, reaching a new high for the year, suggesting it is approaching overvaluation [4]. - The securities index also rose significantly, now reflecting a normal to slightly high valuation [5]. - Hong Kong stocks demonstrated strong performance, particularly in the technology sector [6]. Investment Strategy Before Holidays - With the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, there are specific deadlines for purchasing different types of funds to be considered as pre-holiday investments: - Money Market Funds must be bought by September 29, 3 PM [8]. - Bond Funds must be purchased by September 30, 3 PM, as they can still accrue interest during the holiday [9]. - Stock Funds also have the same deadline as bond funds for pre-holiday purchases [11]. - It is noted that stock fund net values will not be updated during the holiday, while Hong Kong stocks will still have trading days [12][13]. Investment Philosophy - The company advises against selling funds simply due to the holiday, emphasizing a long-term investment approach [17][18]. - The analogy is made that just as business owners do not sell their companies before holidays, investors should maintain their positions unless valuations become excessively high [19][20]. Upcoming Schedule - The trading schedule around the holidays is outlined, indicating that A-shares will be closed during the holiday period, and fund transactions will resume afterward [23][24]. - The company will continue its regular investment strategy post-holiday, with a focus on maintaining investment discipline [25]. Investment Opportunities - The current market is rated at 4.2 stars, suggesting it is a good time to invest in the "Monthly Treasure" investment portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds [2][28]. - The stock portion of the portfolio is described as value-oriented, with current valuations being slightly lower than at the beginning of the year [28]. User Engagement - The company is encouraging user feedback and sharing of investment experiences through a campaign titled "My Investment Smile Curve," highlighting the positive outcomes of consistent investment strategies [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the past year, highlighting the shift from extreme undervaluation to a more balanced valuation, driven primarily by improved liquidity and some signs of fundamental recovery. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance recently, with overall increases noted [1][6] - Small-cap stocks have outperformed larger stocks in the recent rally [3] - The technology sector, particularly in Hong Kong, has seen substantial gains, with tech stocks rising over 2% [7] Group 2: Yearly Comparison - A year ago, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were at a historical low valuation of approximately 5.9 stars [8][14] - Over the past year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have risen significantly, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 43% and tech stocks up by 66% [11] - The global stock market has seen an overall increase of 17% during the same period [10] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The current valuation of A-shares is around 4.2 stars, indicating a recovery from the previous year's extreme undervaluation [9][21] - A-shares are still trading at a valuation approximately 50% lower than the global market average [16] - The article notes that the valuation gap has narrowed to about 10% compared to global averages, suggesting less room for further valuation expansion [31] Group 4: Market Drivers - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by improved liquidity rather than strong fundamental growth [21] - A-shares have shown signs of profit recovery, with earnings growth for listed companies improving, albeit still below historical averages [27][28] - The article emphasizes that sustained market growth will depend on continued earnings growth rather than just valuation recovery [37] Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for further market gains exists if earnings continue to grow alongside reasonable valuations [41] - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve maintains a low-interest-rate environment, it could provide additional support for market growth [41] - The focus on active selection and enhanced index strategies is highlighted as a way to navigate the post-undervaluation phase [43]