Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]

高市早苗，1961年生人，现年64岁，出身普通家庭。媒体报道称，其在高中、大学时期的是"叛逆少女"，喜 欢爬铁丝网溜进校园。 高市早苗是谁？ 大学毕业后，高市早苗进入著名的松下政经塾学习，这是日本政治家的摇篮，培养过多名政府阁僚和国会议 员。之后她还曾赴美深造，回国后当过电视节目主播和大学教授。 1993年，高市早苗首次当选日本众议院议员，正式进入政坛。她最初以无党派身份参选，后来加入新进党， 最终归入自民党。在过去的32年中，她曾担任日本经济安保担当大臣和总务大臣等多个内阁要职。 "安倍女孩" 当地时间10月4日下午，日本执政党自由民主党举行总裁选举，在经历了两轮选战后，前经济安全保障担当大 臣高市早苗力压竞争对手现农林水产大臣小泉进次郎，当选自民党第29任总裁。 高市早苗的当选，也让她成为自民党史上第一位女总裁，并且大概率将成为日本历史上第一位女首相。 高市早苗曾多次参拜靖国神社，最近一次是今年8月15日——日本战败80周年之际。自民党内许多同僚认为她 的立场"过于右翼"。据称，日本前首相岸田文雄曾给她起了"塔利班高市"的绰号。一名自民党资深议员在接受 《经济学人》采访时，更将高市早苗这类强硬右翼人士称为 ...

当地时间10月4日下午，日本执政党自由民主党举行总裁选举，在经历了两轮选战后，前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗力压竞争对手现农林水产大臣小泉 进次郎，当选自民党第29任总裁。 高市早苗的当选，也让她成为自民党史上第一位女总裁，并且大概率将成为日本历史上第一位女首相。 △10月4日，高市早苗在日本自民党总裁选举现场。 高市早苗是谁？ 高市早苗，1961年生人，现年64岁，出身普通家庭。媒体报道称，其在高中、大学时期的是"叛逆少女"，喜欢爬铁丝网溜进校园。 大学毕业后，高市早苗进入著名的松下政经塾学习，这是日本政治家的摇篮，培养过多名政府阁僚和国会议员。之后她还曾赴美深造，回国后当过电视节目 主播和大学教授。 △1993年，当选日本国会众议员的高市早苗。 1993年，高市早苗首次当选日本众议院议员，正式进入政坛。她最初以无党派身份参选，后来加入新进党，最终归入自民党。在过去的32年中，她曾担任日 本经济安保担当大臣和总务大臣等多个内阁要职。 "安倍女孩" 尤其在安倍晋三的多个首相任期内，高市早苗多次担任重要内阁岗位。安倍多次称赞她为"保守派之星"，高市早苗也一度被外界贴上"安倍女孩"的标签。 △2020年2月，时任 ...