华玉 盘 金 wabao WP Fund 【 】 【 】 【 】 【 】 】 【 】 】 2025年12月 151 lll 3A系列ETF当日场内行情 ■ 中证A100ETF基金 A50ETF华宝 中证A500ETF华宝 159596 562000 563500 -0.63% -0.69% -0.66% 数据来源:沪深交易所等,行情数据截至2025 A50ETF华宝于2024.3.18上市,中证A100ETF基金于2022.8.1上 市,中证A500ETF华宝于2024.12.2上市 当日大市行情 a -0.55% -1.1% -1.77% 创业板指 上证指数 深证成指 两市成交额1.77万亿元 较上一日-3188亿元 全市场个股涨跌数 2314 - 175日 2968只 =1 上涨 == 持平 "| 下跌 资金净流入TOP3行业(申万一级) 国防军工 商贸零售 +15.73亿元 +7.63亿元 +5.92亿元 數据来源:沪深交易所等, 机构观点 le 中信建投证券:牛市底层逻辑仍在,跨年有望迎来新一波行情 牛市底层逻辑仍在,主要由结构性行情和资本市场改革政策推动。目 前市场已经基本完成调整,叠加基金排名基本 ...

Core Insights - The performance of thematic ETFs in the A-share market has become a focal point for investors, with significant growth observed in sectors such as communication equipment, artificial intelligence, non-ferrous metals, and gold [1][2] - Communication equipment thematic ETFs have shown remarkable performance, with several ETFs achieving over 100% growth in net value year-to-date, particularly the Guotai CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF, which leads with a 118.55% increase [1][2] - The influx of capital into these ETFs indicates investor confidence in long-term trends, although some funds have experienced net outflows recently, suggesting profit-taking behavior [2][3] Thematic ETF Performance - The Southern Growth Enterprise Market Artificial Intelligence ETF and the Huabao Growth Enterprise Market Artificial Intelligence ETF have also performed well, each exceeding 100% growth in net value [2] - Nine gold-themed ETFs have shown strong performance, with year-to-date net value growth rates exceeding 80% [2] - Despite leading growth, the capital flow for communication equipment ETFs is not entirely consistent, as evidenced by a net inflow of 56.22 billion yuan for the Guotai ETF, contrasted by a net outflow of 3.13 billion yuan in December [2][3] Market Dynamics - The market environment since 2025 has reinforced the logic of thematic investment, with high-growth and visible performance industries attracting concentrated capital [4] - ETFs have become essential tools for capital allocation and participation in thematic rotations, with an expectation of a richer product system as new themes emerge [4] - Investors are advised to be cautious of the volatility associated with high-growth ETFs, emphasizing the importance of considering industry cycles, valuation levels, and capital movements when making investment decisions [4]

Weekend Major Events - AI trading concerns were triggered by Broadcom's disappointing sales guidance, leading to an 11% drop in its stock and a 5% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, marking the largest drop in months. This anxiety was initially sparked by Oracle, which saw its stock decline due to rising capital expenditures and delays in data center projects [2] - The Central Financial Office's Han Wenshu announced that China's economic indicators for 2025 are expected to exceed expectations, with a projected GDP of around 140 trillion yuan. Incremental policies will be implemented in 2026 based on changing circumstances [4] - The government is encouraging local business departments to utilize existing funding channels to promote consumption, emphasizing collaboration with financial support to stimulate consumer potential [5] - The People's Bank of China reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain financial market stability, focusing on promoting economic growth and reasonable price recovery [6] - SpaceX's valuation has reached $800 billion, with plans for an IPO in 2026, indicating serious preparations for public listing [7] - The National Medical Insurance Administration aims to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within policy scope by 2026, contingent on the fund's capacity [8] - Moutai plans to halt the issuance of off-plan quotas this year and reduce non-standard products next year, focusing on core products [9] - More threads regarding idle fundraising cash management by Moer Technology clarified that it will not affect project implementation [10] - Vanke's three extension proposals were not approved, but there is a five-day grace period for negotiations [11] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau supports stabilizing the real estate market and aims to create a new development model for real estate [12] Major Securities Firms' Latest Insights - CITIC Securities suggests a focus on both domestic and foreign demand, indicating that while external demand may face challenges, internal demand shows increasing potential for recovery [14] - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that the macro environment has reverted, but upward space for A-shares remains limited due to concerns over tech capital expenditures [15] - Guojin Securities emphasizes that fluctuations in financial market expectations will not halt the real economy's progress, and investors should focus on fundamental changes [17] - CITIC Jiantou believes that the market has completed its adjustment phase and anticipates a new wave of market activity driven by structural trends and capital market reforms [18] - Xinda Securities discusses the sustainability of the growth sector's rebound, suggesting that the current environment may limit the rebound potential of tech stocks [19] - Dongfang Caifu advises caution regarding external disturbances and suggests patience in market positioning, especially with upcoming economic data releases [20] - Huazhong Securities highlights the importance of turnover rates in assessing the growth sector's market opportunities [21][22] - Huaxi Securities recommends low-cost positioning for the upcoming cross-year market, supported by recent key meetings and improved market sentiment [23] - Dongwu Securities notes that the market is currently stabilizing after previous adjustments, with a focus on policy and data in the upcoming spring market [24] - Everbright Securities anticipates a favorable cross-year market supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of non - ferrous metals is ebbing, and the supply of zinc continues to tighten. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains. Although the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the 11th was unexpectedly dovish and restarted balance - sheet expansion, driving precious metals and non - ferrous metals to rise rapidly, the dot - plot only prices in one 25bps rate cut next year, and the stimulus of the Fed's monetary policy before March 18 next year is relatively limited [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 2.68% at 23,621 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 219,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 220,100 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 23,700 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 65 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 15 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference was 80 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 235,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Market Trends**: The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased, and the TC of zinc concentrate continued to decline. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, while the LME zinc ingot inventory slowly increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly. At the current Shanghai - London ratio, there is still an element gap in China. Coupled with the production cuts of zinc smelting enterprises, the domestic spot side has tightened marginally [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - The report presents multiple macro - economic data charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of US national debt to GDP and the total national debt, the Fed's balance - sheet asset and liability structure, US and Chinese manufacturing PMIs, US manufacturing new orders and unfilled orders, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US aluminum and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ore output was 311,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.2% and a month - on - month change of - 5.9%. From January to November, the total zinc ore output was 3.382 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.4%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ingot output was 595,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.6%. From January to November, the total zinc ingot output was 6.2815 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [33][35]. - **Processing Fees**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $51/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.39%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 385,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.56%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.67%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 139,900 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 0.78 million tons to 12.82 million tons. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5.13 million tons, the domestic basis in the Shanghai area was 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts - contract 1 was - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 6.04 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 0.45 million tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was $172.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $145/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.053, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,588.16 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc is relatively high. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc is rising, and the net short position of commercial enterprises is rising. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bullish [67].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-12 周度统计库存继续去化，碳酸锂盘面高位宽度震荡 市场分析 2025-12-11，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于95900元/吨，收于98880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化3.97%。当日成 交量为744190手，持仓量为634283手，前一交易日持仓量605453手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5120元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单14750手，较上个交易日变化1070手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价91800-95200元/吨，较前一交易日变化800元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价90500-91500元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1205美元/吨，较前一日变化30美元/吨。据SMM 数据，受情绪面影响，盘面价格重心持续上移，市场实际成交清淡，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强。 目前，上下游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴 随部分新产线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。 需求方面，12月新能源汽车 ...

2025年以来，中国资产所面临的宏观叙事发生了重大的变化，据富国星投顾整理主要集中在五大宏观方面：第一，中美战 略相持+地方债务缓解，宏观经济的尾部风险释放；第二，中国经济新旧动能转换初见成效，全球投资者开始重新认知中国 科技和企业的竞争力；第三，反内卷政策的引领下，国内通缩叙事减弱；第四，美元走弱与全球流动性充裕，资金出现再 平衡行为；第五，政策对于中国资本市场重视度提升，市场生态逐渐优化。 在大类资产的盛宴中，基金迎来收获季，仓位成为收益的核心胜负手。据富国星投顾整理可重点从三个方面进行观察。 第一，大类资产方面，黄金一骑绝尘领跑各大类资产，受美元走弱、地缘风险升级、央行购金需求提升等因素影响，黄金 资产年内涨幅可观； 第二，权益资产方面，主动权益基金相较核心股票指数具备更优性价比，权益仓位是收益差异的重要因素； 主动权益基金，今年打了一场漂亮的"翻身仗"。WIND数据显示，偏股混合型基金指数今年以来的收益已经达到了29%，相 对于沪深300的超额达14.2%，富国星投顾分析认为这展现了基金经理主动选股、创造Alpha的专业能力，也证明了在结构性 行情中深度研究依然能带来超额回报。但值得注意的是，主动权益 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese financial market, particularly focusing on monetary and fiscal policies, the bond market, the A-share market, and specific sectors such as AI, renewable energy, non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and commercial aerospace. Key Points and Arguments Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Monetary policy remains accommodative, but the likelihood of further easing in 2026 is low; fiscal policy is actively supportive, focusing on livelihood, consumption, technological innovation, and local government debt resolution, with a projected fiscal deficit exceeding 6 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][2] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields rising by 6.1 BP, 20.1 BP, and 39.6 BP respectively since the second half of the year, driven by reduced expectations for monetary easing, inflation recovery, and increased supply pressure [3] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a slow upward trend, supported by a strong RMB exchange rate and resilient domestic economic fundamentals; the market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase without rapid increases or significant declines [4][5] Cross-Year Market Sentiment - The core of the cross-year market sentiment is the expectation of a spring rally in 2026, with recommendations to position for potential market movements in December [6] Sector Focus for 2026 - Key sectors to watch include AI (especially CPO), renewable energy (storage), non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, and non-ferrous chemicals; opportunities also exist in Hong Kong's internet sector and commercial aerospace [7][13] Specific Company Insights - **Sungrow Power Supply**: The fundamentals remain solid despite recent price drops; price increases in the storage supply chain are demand-driven and do not pose a significant risk [8][9] - **HiSilicon**: Facing significant unlocking pressure on January 27, which may create short-term challenges; however, opportunities in the renewable energy sector post-unlocking in February are noted [9] AI Industry Prospects - The AI sector, particularly in CPO, shows a clear and high certainty outlook; recent market fluctuations due to asset restructuring in specific companies do not significantly impact the overall AI industry [10] Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - Focus on copper and tin, with additional attention to silver, nickel, and rare metals, which present substantial investment opportunities in the near term [11] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform well in 2026, supported by regulatory measures that enhance capital space and leverage limits for quality institutions, potentially increasing ROE [12] Commercial Aerospace Investment - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a significant investment theme for 2026, with ongoing attention and optimism regarding its growth potential [13] Additional Important Insights - The RMB's appreciation historically supports an upward shift in A-share valuations, indicating a positive correlation between currency strength and market performance [4] - The overall sentiment suggests a strategic focus on sectors with high growth potential and favorable market conditions as the year-end approaches [13]

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance at midday on December 9, with 5G50ETF (159811) leading gains at 3.48% [1][3] - 5GETF (159994) increased by 3.41%, while the Huashan AI ETF (159279) rose by 3.39% [1][3] - The worst performers included the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652), which fell by 2.86%, and the Gold Stock ETF (517520) and Gold Stocks ETF (517400), which dropped by 2.78% and 2.75% respectively [1][3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the ETF market included Communication ETF (515880) with a rise of 3.37%, and several other AI ETFs, such as Guotai (159388) and Southern (159382), which increased by 3.33% and 3.32% respectively [2][4] - The decline in the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) was notable, alongside other gold-related ETFs, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards these sectors [2][4]

说完昨天晚上的消息面，接下来我们继续聊市场，那今天市场到底会怎么走？首先在这里面说一下我的 看法，我认为在周末利好的影响之下，今天市场出现高开的概率比较高，但是注意一点，如果今天市场 出现明显大幅高开的话，那么要注意点大幅高开之后呢市场会有回踩动作，只有扛住早盘半小时到一小 时的回踩，那么市场才算真正稳得住，才有机会走出新的上涨行情。而且也不能因为周末两天给很多的 利好消息，大家情绪上就太乐观。我这里面不是看空市场，我强调一点是在于一方面利好消息出来之后 情绪上会有反馈，但是最终决定于市场的是资金到底认可不认可，资金真正认可了，市场才能够走出新 的上涨走势，所以这才是核心点。所以早盘大家要注意几个信号，第一个大幅高开之后回踩动作回踩幅 度不能超过50%，最好是在50%以上，如果超过50%的话就有一点走弱了，这就要注意了。另外第二点 回踩完成之后，第二次上攻的时候成交量也要放大市场，这里面要给出强势状态，一旦这种符合的话， 那么就代表着已经确认了新的上涨行情已经开启了，这个时候就是我们进考虑呢继续加仓的这种动作。 所以综合来看的话，今天实际上要看这些细节，但不管怎么说，周末交易出来之后，包括在上周五我们 也讲了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing volatility due to a policy vacuum, with expectations for a positive policy direction emerging from upcoming meetings in December [1][2]. Macro and Policy - Economic fundamentals have shown relative weakness in the second half of the year, yet risk assets have outperformed safe-haven assets, indicating that asset pricing is driven more by long-term expectations than short-term economic performance [2]. - Optimism regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the anticipated policy strength for 2026 is fueling this positive outlook [2]. - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are critical for setting the policy tone for 2026 and could serve as a turning point for major asset classes [2]. Overseas Factors - The U.S. labor market remains under pressure, necessitating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, although the long-term impact of the labor market on monetary policy is diminishing [3]. - China's international competitiveness in exports has improved, and the country has mitigated some negative impacts from tariffs through re-export trade, suggesting a better-than-expected foreign trade outlook [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Following the December meetings, major assets are expected to transition from a state of ambiguity to clearer trends, marking a pivotal moment for asset allocation [4]. - Bond yields are reasonable but lack attractiveness, while stock market valuations have slightly declined, maintaining a high-risk appetite in the market [4]. - There is optimism regarding fiscal policy strength, which may enhance the attractiveness of equity assets [4]. - In terms of bond investments, a focus on medium- to short-term bonds is recommended due to a generally accommodative monetary policy, despite market sentiment being fragile [4]. - For commodities, attention should be given to non-ferrous metals, which are expected to show a clear contraction trend in supply [4].