[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：国际局势莫测下 应坚守贵金属避风港 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 09 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.88% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking seventh among 31 first-level industries [2][13] - Precious metals showed strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data [5] - The report highlights the importance of strategic minor metals investment opportunities amid intensified international market purchasing [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.88% from May 12 to May 23, 2025, with industrial metals and precious metals leading the gains at 2.87% and 2.45% respectively [2][13] Precious Metals - As of May 23, COMEX gold closed at $3,357.70 per ounce, reflecting a 4.75% increase over the past week and a 25.70% rise year-to-date [21][23] - COMEX silver closed at $33.64 per ounce, up 3.73% over the past week and 12.19% year-to-date [21][26] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,595 per ton, up 1.15% over the past two weeks and 10.47% year-to-date [30] - LME aluminum closed at $2,437 per ton, increasing by 1.50% over the past two weeks but down 3.90% year-to-date [30][32] Minor Metals - The price of antimony ingots (99.65%) was reported at 225,000 yuan per ton, down 5.32% over the past two weeks but up 58.65% year-to-date [36][37] - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 164,500 yuan per ton, down 1.79% over the past two weeks and up 15.24% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index stood at 177.95, up 0.55% over the past two weeks and 8.65% year-to-date [47] - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide was priced at 429,000 yuan per ton, up 1.42% over the past two weeks [47] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 235,850 yuan per ton, down 2.54% over the past two weeks but up 38.33% year-to-date [51] - Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,000 yuan per ton, down 0.71% over the past two weeks and up 83.52% year-to-date [51] Major Events - China issued export licenses for rare earths to at least four producers, marking the first such issuance since export controls were implemented in April [4][58]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Guozheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) increased by 0.32% as of May 20, 2025, with notable gains from component stocks such as China Rare Earth (000831) up 2.58%, Guocheng Mining (000688) up 1.78%, and Shandong Gold (600547) up 1.27% [1] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) rose by 0.47%, with the latest price at 1.07 yuan [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The Guinean government is restructuring mining rights, significantly impacting bauxite supply, as Guinea accounts for 33% of global bauxite production in 2024, with the affected mines representing 12% of Guinea's total output [2] - The revocation of mining rights is seen as a warning regarding overdue mining fees and slow progress in alumina construction, rather than targeting major Chinese mining companies [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - A prominent figure in the copper market, the chairman of Zhongcai Futures, has accumulated nearly 90,000 tons of futures positions over 10 months, indicating strong confidence in copper and the Chinese economy despite geopolitical tensions [3] - Goldman Sachs previously projected that copper prices could reach $10,000 per ton by the end of 2025, supporting long-term investment strategies in the sector [3] Group 4: Index Composition - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and China Aluminum (601600), collectively accounting for 52.1% of the index [3]

有色金属 证券研究报告 供给端存收紧预期，氧化铝价格底部反弹 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 11 日 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/5-2025/5/9） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价窄幅震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.80%/+0.30%/-0.93%，沪铜在 7.7-7.8 万之间窄幅震荡，正如我们前期所判断的 美国关税造成的流动性冲击缓解后铜价迎来反弹修复，铜价波动率逐步下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant growth in stock performance relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.53 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 57.82% [3][4]. - The increase in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to rising prices of silver and tin, alongside growth in production and efficiency [3][4]. - The company’s silver and tin production for 2024 was 229 tons and 8,901 tons respectively, both showing growth of approximately 14.68% and 14.58% year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin improved to 62.95%, up by 10.08 percentage points from the previous year, with silver and tin products contributing significantly to the overall profitability [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the next three years are 5.09 billion yuan in 2025, 6.18 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.14 billion yuan in 2027, with expected growth rates of 19.24%, 21.45%, and 15.46% respectively [7][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.95 billion yuan in 2025, 2.30 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.78 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 27.44%, 18.12%, and 20.78% respectively [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase to 1.10 yuan in 2025, 1.30 yuan in 2026, and 1.57 yuan in 2027 [7][9]. Company Overview - The company has strengthened its resource advantages through the acquisition of Yubang Mining, which holds significant silver reserves, enhancing its market position [5][6]. - Collaboration with Shandong Gold's subsidiary has resulted in a substantial portion of annual sales, indicating strong market relationships and potential for price leverage [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper Industry has seen a significant increase in stock price, with the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) experiencing over 10 million inflows in the past 10 days [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of March 24, 2025, the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) rose by 1.55%, with Northern Copper Industry hitting the daily limit, Jiangxi Copper up by 5.72%, and Baotai Co. up by 5.13% [3]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) increased by 1.50% [3]. - Over the past two weeks, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund has accumulated a rise of 1.53% and a net subscription of 10.6644 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Fund Characteristics - The management fee for the non-ferrous metal ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [3]. - The tracking error for the non-ferrous metal ETF fund over the past month is 0.005%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of February 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index account for 49.57% of the index, including Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, Northern Rare Earth, and others [4].

Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt and Nonferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The nonferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, particularly during market adjustments, ranking first among 31 industries in January 2025 and again in the following week, indicating a preference for nonferrous metals due to solid fundamentals and the arrival of peak downstream demand [2][3] - The traditional demand peak for industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and steel occurs during the "golden March and silver April" period, which is expected to drive demand [2] Key Insights and Arguments - **Aluminum Sector**: - Yun Aluminum Co. is highlighted as a "gold stock" with a nearly 40% increase since the beginning of 2025. The drop in alumina prices has reduced costs, while primary aluminum prices still have room for a 20%-30% increase. Electrolytic aluminum companies maintain high profitability at around 3,500 yuan per ton, with imported ore prices decreasing to 95 USD per ton [2][4] - **Steel Sector**: - The steel sector has performed well, ranking seventh among 31 industries. Current inventory levels are the lowest since 2020, and a reduction in crude steel production by 50 million tons is expected. The "golden March and silver April" period is anticipated to support iron and steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for companies like Hualin Steel, New Steel, and Nanshan Steel [5] - **Congo (DRC) Export Ban**: - The DRC's export ban, effective February 24, 2025, has led to significant price increases for related mineral products, with prices rebounding from 149,500 yuan to 180,000 yuan. This ban is expected to create supply shortages, reducing supply by over 70,000 tons and alleviating previous oversupply issues [6][7] Potential Risks and Opportunities - **Cobalt Price Increase**: - Rising cobalt prices benefit smelting companies and those with mineral resources, allowing for increased processing fees and profits. The cost increase for lithium cobalt batteries in the consumer electronics sector is limited, with downstream acceptance remaining high [8][9] - **Company Performance Expectations**: - Huayou Cobalt is expected to perform well with an annual production of 40,000 tons, benefiting from price increases and a projected value increase of 1 billion yuan from its own inventory. The nickel project is also expected to enhance performance elasticity [10] - Nomu Company, with an annual output of 110,000 tons, stands to gain significantly if cobalt prices remain high, although there are concerns about potential price suppression from oversupply [11] - Tengyuan and Hanrui companies are also expected to see profit increases due to their existing inventories benefiting from price rises [12] Future Outlook - The cobalt industry is anticipated to stabilize with government measures potentially supporting prices between 200,000 to 250,000 yuan in the coming years. This presents a favorable evaluation opportunity for the industry, with many companies, including Huayou Cobalt, still undervalued [13]