Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 102,000 tons by August 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 7.49%, setting a new historical high [1] - Current lithium carbonate inventory remains above 140,000 tons, but the available days have been decreasing over the past six months, leading to increased price elasticity [1] - Specific demand drivers include a month-on-month increase of 8% in lithium carbonate demand from lithium iron phosphate, significant growth in energy storage demand estimated at 40%-50% for 2026, and a 12% increase in demand from ternary materials due to downstream replenishment [1] Group 2 - The market atmosphere indicates a rapid increase in warehouse receipts, with the virtual-to-real ratio returning to a low level, suggesting significant resistance to upward price breakthroughs unless explosive news arises [3] - Potential short-selling opportunities include the production ramp-up of major salt lake projects and the possibility that reductions in Jiangxi may not meet expectations, likely leading to an increase in domestic lithium carbonate production [3] - Overall, before the National Day holiday, the market is expected to continue a tug-of-war between strong realities and weak expectations, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating around 70,000 yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current lithium carbonate market lacks strong driving factors influencing price fluctuations, with both demand and supply dynamics playing critical roles [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, with a greater inventory reduction this week compared to last week, providing price support [1] - Supply side uncertainties in Jiangxi have not been fully resolved, contributing to price stability [1] - The production of lithium from spodumene continues to increase, indicating a more sustained supply than previously expected [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are concerns that the current market demand may have peaked, leading to doubts about the sustainability of future demand, which could negatively impact prices [1] - The news regarding the potential resumption of production by Ningde has not yet been finalized but conveys a positive sentiment to the market, which could also act as a bearish influence on prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Price Trend**: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices first declined and then rebounded due to the expected resumption of production at Jianxiawo. The 2511 contract closed at 71,160 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 71,260 yuan/ton, down 3,060 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price decreased by 2,300 yuan/ton to 72,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Production has exceeded the level before the shutdown at Jianxiawo. Raw material shipments decreased while arrivals increased. Weekly production reached 19,963 tons, up 544 tons week-on-week. In September, lithium battery production is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a 5% month-on-month increase. Weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 139,000 tons, with upstream inventory at an absolute low and downstream inventory at an absolute high [2]. - **Market Outlook**: A weak outlook is expected. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was -100 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract price is expected to range between 61,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on inventory as the basis gradually recovers [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Tables**: The report presents data on the spot market prices of the lithium industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, and battery products, showing price changes and percentages [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - **Raw Material Situation**: Hedland Port started its annual maintenance and dredging on September 12, expected to last 3 - 4 weeks. Last week, Australian ore shipments reached a record high of 157,000 - 207,000 tons, but this week it was 0 tons. In September, the known arrival of Australian ore from all countries was 388,000 tons, with 364,000 tons arriving in China, a week - on - week increase of about 100,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - **Price and Production Graphs**: Multiple graphs illustrate the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the production volume of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, and the monthly and weekly production and inventory of lithium carbonate [9][10][11][12][13]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **Production and Consumption Graphs**: Graphs show the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, and the production and capacity utilization rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [14][15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in lithium carbonate futures indicates a potential market bottom, but long-term price support remains uncertain due to high inventory levels and supply chain dynamics [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 28, lithium carbonate production capacity utilization was at 48.44%, with a weekly output of 15,200 tons, reflecting a 1.3% decrease from the previous period [2]. - The utilization rates for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate were 56% and 63%, respectively, indicating stable production levels in the current demand environment [2][3]. Market Sentiment and Price Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the mining permit changes for the remaining seven mines in Jiangxi, with speculation about the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine by September 20 [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price decline is more influenced by market sentiment and futures trading rather than fundamental supply-demand factors, which remain strong [4].

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate in the domestic futures market has shown signs of recovery, closing up 1.05% at 73,420 yuan/ton after hitting a low of 71,120 yuan/ton, which is approximately a 20% drop from the high of 90,100 yuan/ton two weeks ago [1][2] - The current market prices for high-quality lithium carbonate range from 75,500 to 76,500 yuan/ton, while battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 74,000 and 76,500 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is between 73,500 and 75,000 yuan/ton, indicating stability compared to the previous working day [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent price movements are influenced by high inventory levels and the market's reassessment of supply disruptions, with a noted decrease in production capacity utilization among lithium carbonate producers [2][4] Group 2 - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to improve as the traditional peak season approaches, although supply-side disruptions remain a concern [3] - Recent developments regarding mining permits in Jiangxi province are critical, with a deadline for submission of reports by September 30, which may impact future mining operations [3][4] - The overall supply of lithium carbonate has not yet reached a turning point, as production from spodumene sources is compensating for recent supply disruptions [4]

Summary of Yahua Group Conference Call Company Overview - Yahua Group is a leading player in the domestic civil explosives industry with an industrial explosive production capacity exceeding 260,000 tons and a market share of over 53% in Sichuan [2][4] - The company is actively expanding into markets in Tibet and Yunnan, with the Yaxia Hydropower Station project expected to significantly enhance long-term performance [2][4] Core Business and Development - The core businesses of Yahua Group include civil blasting and lithium mining [4] - The company has lithium mining rights with a capacity corresponding to approximately 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent from the Lijiagou lithium mine and 350,000 tons/year from the Kamativi mine in Zimbabwe, with major benefits expected from the Kamativi mine in the next two years [2][21] - Yahua Group has a significant capacity in lithium hydroxide production, having already produced 100,000 tons and planning to increase by another 70,000 tons, aiming for a total of 170,000 tons [2][22] Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate price has bottomed out but may test lower levels again in 2026; however, the long-term outlook suggests a potential price increase due to supply constraints and demand growth [2][19] - The civil explosives industry is under strict regulation, with limited new capacity and increasing demand from mining operations, providing support for the civil blasting business [2][15] Financial Performance - The civil blasting business has shown stable profitability, with a year-on-year growth of 12.21% in 2023, contributing nearly 90% to gross profit [8] - The lithium business has faced challenges due to cyclical price declines, but as prices stabilize and recover, the contribution from lithium is expected to increase significantly [8][24] Cost Management - Yahua Group manages raw material costs in the civil blasting business through local procurement and framework agreements, maintaining lower gross margins compared to industry averages [3][12] Customer Base and Stability - The company’s downstream customers are primarily located in Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea, including major firms like Tesla, Panasonic, LG, and CATL, which ensures revenue stability through long-term contracts [2][23] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for growth in the next three years, with both civil blasting and new energy sectors showing potential for improvement and significant growth through mergers, acquisitions, and cost reduction strategies [24][25]

投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 本周价格走势:延续跌势,长协基准价高于近月合约价格 线酸锂期货合约价格受永兴材料安许证续证影响再度大跌。2509 合约收于 77000 元/吨,周环比下跌 2180 元/吨,2511 合约收于 77180 元/吨,周环比下跌 1780 元/吨,现货周环比下跌 4250 元/吨为 79650 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2509 合约）下跌 2070元/吨至+2650 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价_310 元/吨,周环比持平。2509-2511 合约价差-180元/吨,环比下跌 400元/吨。 供需基本面:去库不及预期 供应:根据中联金,锂矿港口库存 45.6万吨,环比增长6.4万吨。根据钢联、锂矿库存为10.5万 吨,环比减少 2.6万吨。海外向中国发运量来看,8月澳矿持平,约 31.9万吨,智利低于7月水平,为 2.88万吨,马里未进行发运,津巴布韦环比增长至前期高位,尼日利亚维持高发运量,鸟啵反应 Bikita 恢复生产。本周碳酸锂产量 1.9万吨，环比减少 108吨，其中云母较８月７日当周减少 1910吨，辉石和 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium was affected by mine shutdowns and permit reviews, while overseas imports showed mixed trends. The cost of some manufacturers was under pressure, and the demand showed an upward trend in August. The inventory was in a destocking state. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely, and cautious trading is recommended [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased by 345 tons to 20,438 tons, and the output in July increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and manufacturers in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. The cost - reduction space of Australian mines is limited, and most have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The imports from Australia were about 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. The imports from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month, and those from Nigeria increased by 47% month - on - month. The imports of carbonate lithium in July were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22%, and 9,000 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Manufacturers with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand - The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The total export was 23.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% but a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 127.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% but a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. Policies are expected to support the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China [6] Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium was in a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreasing by 591 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,505 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, but there are still risks in mine certificates, and the cost center has shifted upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers has increased. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely. Cautious trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material manufacturers [6] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and output - loading volume differences of power batteries, production of different cathode materials, import volume of lithium spodumene and carbonate lithium, and market prices of related materials [8][10][12] - In July 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from lithium spodumene [20][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 79,180 yuan, down 3,820 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 23,175 lots, down 7,397 lots; and its open interest was 51,084 lots, down 5,986 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 78,960 yuan, down 3,800 yuan; its trading volume was 932,675 lots, up 154,848 lots; and its open interest was 362,254 lots, down 27,815 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 24,990 lots, up 670 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 4,720 yuan, up 2,520 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 220 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 934 dollars, down 14 dollars; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,055 yuan, down 55 yuan [2]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,900 yuan, down 1,300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan, down 1,300 yuan [2]. - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 36,150 yuan, down 265 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,460 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 83,925 yuan/ton, down 1,299 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,900 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [3]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. (300919.SZ) is involved in salt - lake lithium mines in Argentina through holding and participating in projects. It controls over 10 million tons of LCE, and the value of its lithium resources has increased with the rising lithium carbonate price [4].