1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the outbreak of systematic risks, the bearish sentiment quickly spread, causing the domestic rubber futures to decline under pressure last Friday. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment and weakening macro - factors, after the positive impact of the typhoon was digested, the rubber market returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price slightly increased, and basis discount converged**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract showed a slightly converged discount, reaching a discount of 765 yuan/ton by the end of the week [8]. - **Systematic risks emerged, and rubber weakened**: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, and the US government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. Domestic rubber futures declined under pressure. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract dropped 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton, the standard rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 3.19% to 12,005 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 2.50% to 10,920 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries' output slightly increased, and consumption slightly decreased**: From May to November, domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas enter the tapping season. In August 2025, ANRPC member countries' total rubber production was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,200 tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 6.8536 million tons, a slight increase of 65,000 tons (0.96% increase) compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the total rubber consumption was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons (4.68% decline). From January to August 2025, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant decrease of 267,600 tons (3.60% decline) compared to the same period last year. With normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and a slight decline in global rubber demand, rubber prices may face pressure in the future [24]. - **China's rubber imports slightly increased in August 2025**: China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year - on - year increase of 48,000 tons (7.8% increase). From January to August 2025, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 859,000 tons (19.03% increase) [32]. - **Domestic tire production and sales were booming, and the industry's operating rate decreased week - on - week**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August 2025, China's tire exports were 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased week - on - week due to holiday maintenance [35][36]. - **China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in August 2025**: In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the industry's prosperity. The logistics industry was in a good state, and the heavy - truck market had a five - consecutive - month increase in sales [39]. - **SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory decreased slightly**: By the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly week - on - week. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons (1.01% decline) compared to the previous period [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - With the global financial market risk - aversion sentiment rising, risk assets are under pressure, and macro - factors are weakening. After the positive impact of the typhoon is digested, the rubber market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view is that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly. For Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is downward [1]. - Systemic risks have emerged, with President Trump restarting the tariff war targeting China and the US bipartisan deadlock leading to a government shutdown, which has caused negative sentiment to spread and put pressure on rubber and synthetic rubber futures [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract fell significantly by 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The 2601 contract's moving averages maintain a bearish trend. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber 2512 contract fell significantly by 2.77% to 10,890 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber 2512 contract will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [6].

2025 年 10 月 13 日 白糖：重视系统性风险 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.1 | -0.15 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 27 | -9 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5840 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -3 | -6 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5496 | -32 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 344 | 32 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：美股、原油大跌，黄金、白银上涨，避险氛围增强，重视系统系风险。继"桦加沙"之后，台 风"麦德姆"再次影响广东和广西，同时广西产区发生洪水。巴西 9 月上半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 16%。 截至 9 月 30 日，印度季风降水量较 LPA 高 7.9%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 9 月出口 325 万吨，同比减少 16% ...

DeFi Risk Analysis - The report highlights concerns regarding potential systemic risks associated with WETH's oracle mechanism modification scheduled for the 16th [1] - The report suggests Binance may not have adequately considered the systemic risks posed by excessive circular loans in its USDE operations [1] - The author dismisses the conspiracy theory that Binance intentionally created risks for USDE [1] Oracle Mechanism - The report mentions a potential conflict if Binance modifies the USDE oracle lower limit after WETH's oracle mechanism change [1] Project Evaluation - The report uses the term "草台班子" (roughly translates to "makeshift team" or "incompetent team") to describe Binance's handling of USDE, implying a lack of foresight [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend as the bullish factors of the typhoon are digested and the market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure under a weak macro - expectation [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend due to the suppression of the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a weak - oscillating trend because of the US federal government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the potential end of the Palestine - Israel conflict leading to the loss of geopolitical premium [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons (1.01%) from the previous period. Bonded area inventory remained flat, while general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points; for general trade warehouses, the inbound rate increased by 1.98 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 3.11 percentage points [8]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period and 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. For full - steel tire sample enterprises, it was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and 0.78 percentage points year - on - year, due to holiday shutdowns for maintenance [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles in August 2025, a 1% decrease from July and a 35% increase from the previous year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% increase year - on - year [9]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight increase of 0.87% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.82% month - on - month, and a 1.39% decrease from the previous year. The weekly average methanol output was 2.033 billion tons, a significant increase of 160,300 tons week - on - week, 113,700 tons month - on - month, and 156,200 tons from the previous year [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a slight decrease of 0.43% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a 5.03% increase week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a slight decrease of 0.46% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a 4.94 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.42 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 146 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and 127 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.273 billion tons, a slight increase of 49,000 tons week - on - week, 57,000 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons from the previous year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, a slight decrease of 20,500 tons week - on - week, 13,500 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons from the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422, a slight decrease of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 57 from the previous year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant increase of 124,000 barrels per day week - on - week and 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [11]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a significant increase of 3.715 million barrels week - on - week and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a slight decrease of 763,000 barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a slight increase of 285,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a 1.0 - percentage - point increase week - on - week, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, and a 5.7 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) from the August average. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a significant decrease of 9,903 contracts week - on - week and a slight increase of 162 contracts (0.08%) from the August average [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,550 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,315 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,252 yuan/ton | + 2 yuan/ton | 2,307 yuan/ton | + 17 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.4 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 461.9 yuan/barrel | - 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 10.5 yuan/barrel | + 9.5 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][23]. - Methanol: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][33]. - Crude Oil: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a rebound after over - decline, but the futures price was under the reverse suppression of the 5 - day moving average, and the short - and medium - term moving averages showed an obvious short - selling trend. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber will continue to run weakly in the future. The bullish expectations at the industrial level are difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment, and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact of US Government Shutdown - Due to the failure of the US Senate to pass a new temporary appropriation bill on October 6, the US government shutdown continued. The 35 - day shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 caused a loss of $3 billion to GDP. It is estimated that each week of the current shutdown will reduce the economic growth rate by about 0.15 percentage points, and may reduce it by 0.2 percentage points when the impact on private institutions is included. The shutdown has a major impact on the economy and demand, and drags down the price trend of commodities, which also has a negative impact on Shanghai rubber futures [2] Supply and Demand in the Rubber Market - **Supply**: Currently, both domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are in the peak tapping season, especially the Southeast Asian main producing areas. The supply pressure is steadily increasing. In August, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons. From January to August, the total rubber production reached 6.8536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons, or 0.96%. Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer, had a total rubber production of 2.8158 million tons in the first 8 months of this year, a year - on - year increase of 81,900 tons, or 3.00%. Its total export volume from January to August was 2.7569 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,600 tons, or 7.85% [4][6] - **Demand**: Affected by the slowdown of the world economic growth due to the global tariff war, the rubber consumption market has cooled down. In August, the total consumption of ANRPC member countries was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons, or 4.68%. From January to August, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 267,600 tons, or 3.60%. Overall, the rubber market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8] Impact of Typhoon "Maideme" - Typhoon "Maideme" landed and hit the northern part of Hainan Province and the southwestern part of Guangdong Province in China, which are important rubber - planting areas. It may bring a production reduction expectation, which in turn supports the stabilization of the Shanghai rubber futures price. However, the bullish expectation at the industrial level is difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment [8][9]

Core Insights - First Brands, an automotive parts supplier, has filed for bankruptcy, raising concerns on Wall Street about potential systemic risks in the credit market due to the disappearance of up to $2.3 billion in assets [1][3][5] - The company left behind $5.8 billion in leveraged loan debt and total liabilities may approach $12 billion, with loan prices plummeting to one-third of their value shortly before the bankruptcy [1][6] Group 1: Bankruptcy Details - First Brands filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on September 28, leaving behind $5.8 billion in leveraged loan debt [5] - The company’s advisors admitted in court that they could not trace $1.9 billion in assets that were supposed to serve as collateral for creditors, with only $12 million remaining in bank accounts [1][4] Group 2: Creditor Concerns - Raistone, one of the largest creditors, claims that $2.3 billion in assets are "untraceable" and is demanding an independent investigator to examine the circumstances surrounding the bankruptcy [3][4] - Raistone is also linked to $631 million in investments exposed to First Brands' invoices and claims to be owed at least $172 million [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley characterized the bankruptcy as an "isolated incident," maintaining a constructive outlook on the overall credit market [6] - Conversely, investor Jim Chanos warned that this could be the "first thunder" of a crisis in the private credit market, drawing parallels to the Enron scandal [6] - Despite the turmoil, the broader credit market remains calm, but Bank of America strategists suggest defensive measures due to widening spreads between high-yield and investment-grade bonds [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 燃料油维持偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 国庆长假期间，海外市场发生一系列重大事件。美国联邦政府陷入停摆危机，OPEC+产油国继续扩大 11 月产能规模。在负面情绪不断发酵下，全球能源市场偏空氛围进一步增强，从而导致国际原油期货价格 遭遇重挫。其中，WTI 与布伦特原油双双跌至近五个月以来的低位。这一系列外部利空冲击不仅重塑了原 油市场的交易逻辑，而且也会迫使节后国内燃料油期货维持低开弱势运行的走势。 美国政府停摆 系统性风险出现 由于美国国会参议院在 10 月 3 日未能通过新的临时拨款法案，民主党和共和党的提案均再度遭到否 决，联邦政府"停摆"继续。据美国国会预算办公室估计，美国联邦政府在 2018 年底至 2019 年初为期 35 天的"停摆"给该国 GDP 造成 30 亿美元的损失。如若此次美国政府每"停摆"一周，经济增速将下降约 0.15 个百分点，如果算上私营机构受到的影响，经济增速可能下降 0.2 个百分点。不难看出，停摆对原油 等能源商品呈现偏负面影响。尽管地缘政治和 OPEC+的产量决策是油价的主要驱动因素，但政府停摆增加 了 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the US federal government shutdown during the National Day holiday, international crude oil futures prices declined under pressure. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from a pre - holiday high of $66.42/barrel to a low of $60.40/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.06%. The Brent crude oil futures price fell from a pre - holiday high of $70.76/barrel to a low of $64/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.55%. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract is expected to face a risk of a gap - down opening after the holiday. With the support of geopolitical premium weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5]. Summary by Directory 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot prices rose slightly and basis discounts widened slightly - As of the week ending September 30, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area was $64.63/barrel, equivalent to RMB 459.2/barrel, a week - on - week increase of $4.7/barrel. The domestic crude oil futures main contract 2511 closed at RMB 479.7/barrel, a week - on - week increase of RMB 6.6/barrel. The basis was RMB 20.5/barrel [9]. 1.2 Systematic risks occurred and international crude oil futures declined - Affected by the US federal government shutdown, during the National Day holiday, international crude oil futures prices declined under pressure. The WTI crude oil futures price dropped from a pre - holiday high of $66.42/barrel to a low of $60.40/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.06%. The Brent crude oil futures price fell from a pre - holiday high of $70.76/barrel to a low of $64/barrel, a cumulative decline of 9.55%. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract dropped from a rebound high of RMB 499.2/barrel to below RMB 480/barrel, a cumulative decline of 3.90%. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may face a risk of a gap - down opening after the holiday [5][12][13]. 2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus Escalated and the Production Increase Rhythm Accelerated 2.1 OPEC+ accelerated capacity release and the expectation of supply surplus increased - In August 2025, OPEC+ member countries decided to increase production. From April to August 2025, OPEC+ shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 191.9 barrels/day. In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 2794.8 barrels/day, a significant month - on - month increase of 47.8 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 129.6 barrels/day [20][21][22]. 2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity remained at a high level - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 57. As of the week ending September 26, 2025, the US crude oil daily production was 1350.5 barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 30.5 barrels/day [36]. 2.3 The peak season of crude oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere was coming to an end - Entering October, the peak season of gasoline consumption in the US ended, and the demand factor weakened. Different energy institutions had different forecasts for the crude oil market. EIA and IEA were pessimistic about the future oil price, while OPEC was relatively optimistic [41][42][43]. 2.4 US crude oil inventories increased slightly and refinery operating rates decreased slightly - As of the week ending September 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 416.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.792 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was 91.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points [44]. 2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The crude oil import volume was 49.492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.288 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.392 million tons [48]. 3 The Middle East Situation Showed Signs of Easing but Risks Still Existed - During the National Day holiday, eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, but Israel said it was a change in the combat situation rather than a cease - fire. The easing of the Middle East situation weakened the support for the crude oil market, and the "war premium" subsided [57][58][59]. 4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Changed Differently Week - on - Week - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts [62][64]. 5 Conclusion - Affected by the US federal government shutdown and OPEC+ production increase, international crude oil futures prices declined. With the support of geopolitical premium weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend on the first trading day after the holiday [70].

x30003 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 9 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 甲醇 | 周报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 甲醇周报 专业研究·创造价值 偏空因素主导 甲醇震荡回落 核心观点 甲醇：节前两个交易日，受困于国内外甲醇供应压力增大，而 下游烯烃需求偏弱影响，叠加港口库存居高不下。甲醇期货基本面乏 力导致其主力 2601 合约呈现震荡回落的走势，期价自 2367 元/吨一线 跌落至 2328 元/吨，累计跌幅达 1.15%。1-5 月差维持在贴水 34 元/ 吨。 甲醇-MA 国庆长假期间，美国联邦政府意外停摆，系统性风险发生，导致 全球金融市场避险情绪大幅升温，黄金期货走强，其他大宗商品普遍 ...