中信建投研报认为，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修，黄金、白 银、铂、钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦表现强势。金属价格上涨的背后，一面是充裕 的流动性，另一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。 黄金需求创季度新高 今年以来，全球贵金属价格走势不平静，其中黄金和白银价格不断创出历史新高，今年11月在广州期货 交易所上市的钯和铂期货近期更是连续大涨。 贵金属价格大幅上涨 本周一（12月22日），全球贵金属主要品种集体上涨，截至17时，伦敦金现上涨近1.7%，盘中创下 4420.47美元/盎司的新高，年初至今上涨超68%；伦敦银现上涨超1.7%，盘中创出69.45美元/盎司的高 位，年初至今上涨近140%；现货铂金、现货钯金当天分别上涨超4%和近2%。 国内贵金属也大幅上涨。钯、铂期货主力合约当天均报收涨停，白银期货主力合约收盘上涨6.06%，年 内涨幅达到116.16%；黄金期货主力合约收盘再次突破100元/克，上涨2.1%，年内涨幅达到62.3%。 受贵金属价格集体上涨影响，A股、港股相关个股亦有明显涨幅。万得贵金属行业指数周一大涨4.2%， 共有3 ...

Group 1 - Significant increase in gold prices expected in 2025 driven by multiple factors [1] - Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a decline in the dollar index by over 10%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [1] - Geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East contributing to increased global uncertainty, resulting in a surge of safe-haven investments in gold [1] Group 2 - Central banks in emerging markets like China and India accelerating "de-dollarization" by increasing gold reserves, with net purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] - Weakening of U.S. dollar credit due to expanding fiscal deficits and concerns over inflation, prompting investors to turn to gold as an inflation hedge [3] - Market sentiment and capital flows leading to a record inflow into gold ETFs, amplifying price increases after gold prices break key levels [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The reports focus on the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly gold, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium carbonate, and cobalt markets for the year 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Core Insights and Arguments Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to benefit from a weakening US dollar, anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and potential policy uncertainties following Powell's departure, alongside ongoing global central bank gold purchases [1][4]. - The macroeconomic environment is projected to support gold's monetary and financial attributes, driving prices upward [2][3]. Copper Market - Supply constraints are anticipated due to diminishing resource endowments and stricter policies affecting overseas copper mining projects, limiting capacity expansion [1][5]. - Demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to AI hardware and infrastructure development, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 50% in global computing power from 2025 to 2030 [5]. Aluminum Market - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, while high electricity prices overseas are increasing operational uncertainties [6][7]. - Strong growth in electric vehicle demand and historically low aluminum inventories suggest potential price elasticity for aluminum [6][7]. Tin Market - The tin supply is under pressure due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, slow recovery in Myanmar, and conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening global supply [8][9]. - Despite low processing fees in Yunnan and Guangxi, future demand for tin is expected to remain robust, particularly driven by the semiconductor industry and AI applications [9]. Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is projected to maintain strong momentum in 2026, supported by rapid growth in electric vehicles and energy storage demand [1][10]. - Supply risks from domestic mica mines and a slowdown in overseas lithium resource expansion are noted, but demand is expected to remain strong [10]. Cobalt Market - The cobalt market is facing supply concerns due to tightened export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to significantly reduce export volumes [3][11][12]. - The anticipated structural supply tightness is likely to persist, affecting global cobalt availability [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall outlook for the industrial and energy metals sector is positive, with expectations of improved fundamentals and macroeconomic support driving growth [2][3][13]. - Companies with strong cost advantages and clear future prospects are recommended for investment, as they are expected to achieve significant volume increases and provide potential returns for investors [13].

截至收盘，沪银期货主力合约涨超5%，续创历史新高。 平安证券指出，展望2026年，结合宏观与基本面，三条主线有望主导有色板块表现：1）美元信用弱化 及美联储降息有望持续，黄金等贵金属货币属性及金融属性持续计价，同时弱美元提供工业金属向上驱 动。2）供给收缩加速为工业金属基本面核心演绎逻辑，表现在不同金属面临的上游资源约束或中游产 能瓶颈。3）需求新增长极驱动弹性释放，供给出清结束背景下，能源金属基本面改善显著。建议关注 成本优势突出，未来几年内享有量增的各赛道企业：赤峰黄金、山东黄金、洛阳钼业、天山铝业、云铝 股份、神火股份、兴业银锡，锡业股份、中矿资源、华友钴业。 中银证券认为，黄金仍处上升通道，但当前处于加速上行后的高位震荡阶段，后续行情的催化关键在 于"实际利率下行"与"美元走弱"能否形成共振。相比之下，白银的短期确定性更强：当前处于历史高位 的"金银比"蕴含着较大的修复空间，而光伏等工业领域需求增长为银价提供了支撑，较低的库存水平使 其价格短期弹性或优于黄金。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains the core logic for gold pricing in 2025, with a notable negative correlation between gold prices and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [11][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, which may support gold prices, especially with concerns over the independence of monetary policy due to potential changes in leadership [13][15] - The long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit is not expected to change, with the US fiscal deficit projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2024, indicating ongoing structural issues in the US fiscal system [16][17] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Supply constraints for copper are expected to intensify, with significant disruptions in overseas copper mining projects leading to a projected decrease in output by over 100,000 tons in 2025 [23][24] - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rise of AI and data centers, with each MW of installed capacity requiring approximately 27 tons of copper [27][28] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by a weak dollar and continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive copper prices upward [29][31] Group 3: Energy Metals - The supply of lithium and cobalt is expected to improve significantly due to the end of overseas capacity clearances and the implementation of supply constraint policies by major producing countries [33] - The demand for energy metals is projected to benefit from the resilience of battery technologies and the growth of the energy storage sector, leading to a positive supply-demand dynamic [33][34] Group 4: Tin - The supply of tin is tightening due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and ongoing production disruptions in Myanmar, with exports from Indonesia declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [45][46] - The global demand for refined tin is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by high semiconductor sales and the increasing use of tin solder in AI and high-performance computing applications [51]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a bullish outlook on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by recent economic data and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1] - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that the expectation for a rate cut has increased significantly, rising from below 40% to over 80%, which supports the rebound in precious metal prices [1] - The silver market is experiencing accelerated inventory depletion, which may lead to a short squeeze scenario [1] Group 2 - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is supported by multiple factors, including rigid supply, expanding new demand, and improved liquidity, with the CSI Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index valuation at a near 10-year low, indicating solid long-term investment value [1] - The recommendation to focus on the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) is based on the favorable market conditions and the anticipated upward movement of gold and silver prices [1]

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 新能源&有色组行业贵金属年报 贵金属的黄金时代 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号 F03114162 投资咨询号 Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 贵金属年度报告 2025-11-30 贵金属的黄金时代 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of the metal sector, particularly the rebound in the communication equipment sector, driven by various economic factors and market dynamics [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - On November 26, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a fluctuating upward trend, with the communication equipment sector leading the gains [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) rose by 0.36%, and Huayou Cobalt increased by 1.67% [1] Short-term and Long-term Trends - The short-term pullback in the non-ferrous metal sector is primarily influenced by fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and profit-taking by some investors [1] - However, the demand for industrial metals is supported by the shift in dollar liquidity during the Fed's rate-cutting period and the collaborative fiscal policies of China and the U.S. aimed at boosting manufacturing and new infrastructure [1] Sector Analysis - Precious metals are currently under pressure due to mixed U.S. employment data, but the long-term trend of global central bank gold purchases and the weakening of dollar credit is expected to drive gold prices higher [1] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing destocking trends due to supply constraints and recovering demand [1] - Energy metals such as lithium and cobalt benefit from strong demand in power batteries and energy storage, along with export restrictions on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, providing upward price momentum [1] Investment Outlook - Overall, the non-ferrous metal sector is supported by rigid supply, expanding new demand, and improving liquidity, with the CSI Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index valuation percentile at a near 10-year low, indicating solid long-term investment value [1] - It is recommended to pay attention to the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) for potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant decline, primarily influenced by the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices, creating a potential opportunity for investors to consider undervalued segments within the industry [1] Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Summary - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a substantial decline of 6.75% last week, with a single-day drop of 5.26% on November 21 [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 42.9% on November 17 to 35.4% on November 20 [1] - Some investors believe the sector may continue to face weakness, making it difficult to identify investment opportunities [1] Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Summary - The electrolytic aluminum sector may have been unfairly punished, as the leading companies' stock offerings do not impact the overall supply-demand balance or profitability [2] - Current valuations for companies like Tianshan Aluminum have fallen to around 8.5 times historical lows, while dividend yields have risen to approximately 6%, providing defensive support for the sector [2] - The sector is expected to benefit from increased industrial metal demand due to U.S. fiscal expansion in 2026, with potential price increases driven by overseas demand [2] Gold Sector Summary - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's December rate cut [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by weakening U.S. dollar credit and increasing government debt, which reached $38.37 trillion as of November 20, up by $0.176 trillion since November 13 [3] - U.S. fiscal spending is anticipated to boost demand in the non-ferrous metal sector, potentially raising metal prices and benefiting gold prices in the medium term [3] Investment Recommendations - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is recommended for its improved cost structure and potential for volume and price growth in 2026 [4] - Other notable companies include Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ), Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH), and Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) [4] - In the gold sector, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) is recommended due to its improving gold production and accelerating performance [4] - Additional companies to watch include Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) and Shanjin International (000975.SZ) [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4063 per ounce, reflecting an 18.2% increase since the beginning of the year, driven by a weakening dollar credit, expanding supply-demand gap, and normalized geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is strengthening, which is a major short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11, with a slight upward shift in the short-term oscillation center [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a weakening market expectation for Fed easing policies, which directly undermines gold's inflation and interest rate sensitivity [2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures from the dollar, the long-term logic for gold price increases remains solid due to a clear trend of Fed rate cuts and a low-interest-rate environment [2] - Central banks worldwide are continuing to purchase gold amid a de-dollarization trend, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] - Recent significant inflows into gold ETFs signal a positive shift in the funding landscape [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Global physical gold demand remains weak, particularly in major Asian markets, with India and China showing no significant growth in jewelry and investment demand due to multiple influencing factors [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $3900 to $4150 per ounce, with key support and resistance levels identified [3][4][5][6] - Key support levels include the $4040-$4050 area and the psychological level of $4000, while resistance levels are at $4100 and the $4130-$4150 range, which could indicate a trend change if breached [3][4][5][6]