Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term, with a strong probability of maintaining current rates, as indicated by recent statements from officials and market expectations [4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 95%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 5% [3][9]. - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 26%, with a 72.8% chance of rates remaining unchanged [3][9]. - The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut by March is minimal at 1.2% [3][9]. Group 2: Economic Projections by Federal Reserve Officials - New York Fed President Williams suggests that the U.S. economy will remain healthy through 2026, indicating no immediate need for rate cuts [4][10]. - He states that current monetary policy is well-positioned to support labor market stability and help bring inflation back to the 2% target [4][10]. - Williams projects GDP growth for the year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with unemployment rates stabilizing and expected to decline in subsequent years [4][10]. - Inflation is anticipated to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [4][10].

美联储威廉姆斯：美联储没有面临改变利率的强大压力。在央行独立性之争中市场相对平静，反映出对 结果的不确定性。预计下一任美联储主席将理解这一职位的重要性。 ...

【#摩根大通不再预计美联储今年降息# 并预测在2027年加息】智通财经1月12日电， 摩根大通策略师和 经济学家们不再预计美联储今年会降息，并预计明年会加息，这一预期调整是根据上周五公布的12月就 业数据做出的。包括Michael Feroli、Phoebe White和Jay Barry在内的团队在1月9日的报告中写道，"我们 现在预计美联储将在2026年全年维持利率不变，不过鉴于市场不愿排除劳动力市场走弱的可能性，同时 注意力又被美联储主席之争占据，额外的前端溢价可能还会持续几个月。"(智通财经) 来源：贝壳财经 ...

Group 1 - The international precious metals market is experiencing an upward trend in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4,580.74 per ounce and silver futures at $83.475 per ounce, influenced by multiple factors [1] - Geopolitical tensions, such as protests in Iran and discussions between the UK and Germany regarding military presence in Greenland, have increased investor interest in safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Recent U.S. employment data showed mixed results, with job growth below expectations but a decrease in the unemployment rate, leading to speculation about potential adjustments in Federal Reserve interest rates [3] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices are maintaining an upward trend within a rising channel, currently above the 200-period simple moving average, which provides dynamic support in the $4,325-$4,320 range [4] - The MACD indicator shows positive momentum, while the RSI is at 71.82, suggesting potential overbought conditions that may limit short-term price increases [6] - Silver prices are moving in tandem with gold but exhibit greater volatility, with recent gains attributed to both industrial and financial demand [6]

1月12日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0108，上调20点。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为95.6% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为4.4%，维持利率不变的概率为95.6%。到3月累 计降息25个基点的概率为27.6%，维持利率不变的概率为71.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.1%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 来源：新浪网 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为4.4%，维持利率不变的概率为95.6%。到3月累 计降息25个基点的概率为27.6%，维持利率不变的概率为71.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation data for December is expected to be a significant focus for investors [1] - Investors are assessing the potential timing and magnitude of future interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Bond traders are on guard for an especially volatile Friday as a pivotal US jobs report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten to jolt the Treasuries market out of its doldrums. First up is the 8:30 a.m. Washington time release of December employment figures, a highly anticipated report seen as finally giving a reliable reading on the economy after weeks of data affected by the government shutdown. The figures will either cement expectations that the Federal Rese ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December is expected to influence the US Dollar's volatility and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction for the new year [1]. Group 1: Nonfarm Payrolls Expectations - Economists predict a rise of 60,000 in Nonfarm Payrolls for December, following a 64,000 increase in November [2]. - The Unemployment Rate is anticipated to decrease to 4.5% from 4.6%, while annual wage inflation is expected to increase to 3.6% from 3.5% [2]. Group 2: Private Sector Payrolls and Employment Index - The ADP report indicates a rise of 41,000 in private sector payrolls for December, recovering from a 29,000 decline in November [3]. - The Employment Index of the Institute for Supply Management's Services PMI rose to 52, indicating a return to growth after six months of contraction [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The US Dollar ended the year positively, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates at the January meeting despite a dovish stance in December [4]. - Current market pricing shows less than a 15% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but employment data could affect the likelihood of a rate cut in March, currently estimated at around 45% [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin emphasized the need for careful rate decisions due to risks to unemployment and inflation, noting the low unemployment rate [6]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari remarked on the cooling job market and the potential for the Unemployment Rate to increase [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the future trajectory of the U.S. labor market will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment path this year, with multiple employment data releases expected to provide insights into the overall labor market condition [2] - The ADP National Employment Report is set to be released, with market consensus predicting an addition of 47,000 jobs in December, rebounding from a negative forecast of 32,000 jobs in November [2] - The chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests that if the average weekly job growth of 11,500 jobs in the four weeks ending December 6 is maintained, the monthly increase could reach 45,000 jobs [2] Group 2 - The current London gold price is trading above $4,455.54 per ounce, with a reported price of $4,464.68 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.65% [1] - The gold price has shown a bullish short-term trend, with a recent high of $4,499.89 per ounce and a low of $4,441.09 per ounce [1] - The four-hour cycle of gold prices displays a standard upward wave structure, indicating a strong upward momentum in the current wave [3] - The moving average system shows a perfect bullish arrangement, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages all diverging upwards, indicating strong short-term trend stability [3] - The first resistance zone for gold is identified between $4,526 and $4,531, with a core resistance at $4,550 per ounce, which, if broken, could open further upward potential towards the $4,588-$4,600 range [4]