据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为5.6%，降息25个基点的概率为94.4%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为1.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为30.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 67.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak employment report has sparked discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last year's strategy of maintaining rates in July and significantly cutting them in September [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with numbers falling well below expectations and previous months' employment figures being revised downwards [1]. - Following the weak employment report, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90% [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current situation has drawn parallels to last summer when the Federal Reserve also chose not to cut rates in July, but a subsequent weak employment report led to a 50 basis point cut in September [3]. - Notably, the economic context differs this year, as inflation concerns are heightened due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contrasting with last year's declining inflation [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Considerations - Rick Rieder from BlackRock indicated that if the labor market continues to weaken, with job additions remaining below 100,000, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts, with a 50 basis point cut in September being a possibility [4]. - The upcoming employment report and inflation data will be crucial in determining whether the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious approach or respond decisively to the changing economic landscape [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that Governor Adriana Kugler will resign early, effective August 8, creating a significant vacancy amid President Trump's push for lower interest rates [1][2] - Kugler was appointed by former President Biden in September 2023 and was the first Hispanic member of the Federal Reserve Board, previously serving as a professor at Georgetown University and a representative to the World Bank [1] - Kugler's resignation may disrupt the timeline for the succession process of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year, with Trump threatening to dismiss Powell [2] Group 2 - During the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there was notable dissent within the Fed, with Governors Waller and Bowman voting against the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][3] - The last time there were dissenting votes from Board members was in September of the previous year, indicating that such occurrences are relatively rare [2] - Recent labor market data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the expected 115,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3]

8月1日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1496，下调2点。 美联储9月降息的概率为38.2% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为61.8%，降息25个基点的概率为38.2%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为39.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 13.9%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为61.8%，降息25个基点的概率为38.2%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为39.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 13.9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD has declined to a five-week low, challenging the support level at 1.1500 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar maintains its rebound ahead of the FOMC event, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged [2] - Optimism surrounding a US-EU framework agreement has supported the dollar's rise, with the agreement involving a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, while key industries are exempt from tariffs [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are highlighted, with some policymakers favoring preventive rate cuts while others prefer to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation [5] Group 2: Speculative Positions - As of July 22, speculators have reduced their net long positions in euros to approximately 125.5K contracts, the lowest level in two weeks, while institutional hedgers have cut their short positions to about 177.7K contracts [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD must break above the 2025 high of 1.1830 to target the peak of 1.1909 from September 2021, potentially challenging the significant 1.2000 level [7] - Short-term support levels are identified at 1.1518, followed by the June 19 low of 1.1445 and the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1344 [8] Group 4: Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, indicating further downside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 21 suggests no clear trend has formed [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade tensions and divergent signals from central banks indicate that recent gains are hard-won, with a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve or signs of trade war de-escalation needed to reverse the Euro/USD trend in the short term [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1][3]. Summary by Category LPR Data Overview - The one-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.00% as of July 21, 2025, consistent with the previous month [1]. - The five-year LPR is also held steady at 3.50%, unchanged from June 2025 [1]. - Historical data shows that the one-year LPR has been at 3.00% since April 2025, while the five-year LPR has been at 3.50% since the same period [2]. Market Implications - The decision to keep the LPR stable suggests that the central bank is likely prioritizing economic stability and growth over immediate monetary easing [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain its interest rates in July, with a 95.3% probability, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy in the global context [3].

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, etc. It shows the price movements of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, and analyzes the impact of factors like weather, export data, and macro - economic indicators on the market [1][5][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. The price changes of major currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal rainfall and higher temperatures from July 20 - 24. Some areas in the US Midwest have received rainfall, and the overall weather conditions are favorable for crops [5][7]. - **Palm Oil**: ITS and AmSpec data show a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15. However, UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that exports may increase in July, and production is expected to rise while inventory may remain stable [8][9]. - **Soybeans**: NOPA data shows that US soybean crushing in June was 185.709 million bushels. Anec predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in July. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed have decreased compared to last year [11][12]. - **Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index continued to rise, with freight rates for all types of ships increasing [13]. - **Trading Volume and Inventory**: On July 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the开机 rate of oil mills increased slightly. The port inventories of imported soybeans and soybean oil increased [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%. US economic data such as CPI, NY Fed Manufacturing Index, etc., are released. OPEC maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecasts. The economic data of the Eurozone shows positive trends [17][18]. - **Domestic**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar on July 15. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan. China's Q2 GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and other economic indicators such as retail sales and industrial added - value were also released [20]. Fund Flows - On July 15, the futures market had a net inflow of 11.281 billion yuan, with 4.329 billion yuan in commodity futures (including net outflows in agricultural futures and net inflows in chemical, black - series, and metal futures) and 6.952 billion yuan in stock index futures [23]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is 6.7% [1] - In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 31.1%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 64.4% and a 50 basis point cut is 4.5% [1] Group 2 - For the interest rate forecast on July 31, 2025, the probability of rates being between 4.00%-4.25% is 6.7% [3] - On September 18, 2025, the probability of rates being between 4.00%-4.25% increases to 64.4% [3] - By October 30, 2025, the probability of rates being between 3.75%-4.00% is 44.8% [3]