晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious approach in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on defensive sectors such as banking due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures [3][10][12] - It highlights the potential for bond yields to reach new lows, recommending patience in positioning for left-side opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7% after a 10 basis point rate cut [3][12] - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic stock market, driven by short-term high-elasticity targets, with small-cap stocks becoming the core focus for capital [10][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key events impacting the market, including the U.S. tariff increase on steel and aluminum, and the People's Bank of China's liquidity support measures [9][10] - It tracks market performance indicators, noting a rise in average daily trading volume to 12,088.54 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity and investor interest [22] - The report anticipates continued recovery in U.S. markets, driven by stable earnings from tech giants and a favorable environment during the tariff policy window [13]

特朗普：就业数据亮眼 股市大涨 金十数据6月6日讯，特朗普在社交媒体上表示："就业数据亮眼，股市大涨！与此同时，数十亿美元因 关税而涌入！" ...

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. Market Data Commodities - **Palm oil**: Closed at 8060.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - **Live pigs**: Closed at 13605.00 with a weekly increase of 0.67% [2]. - **Soybean meal**: Closed at 2968.00 with a weekly increase of 0.54% [2]. - **Corn**: Closed at 2336.00 with a weekly increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Copper**: Closed at 77600.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.24% [2]. - **PTA**: Closed at 4700.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.34% [2]. - **Aluminum**: Closed at 20070.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.42% [2]. - **Silver**: Closed at 8218.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.54% [2]. - **Methanol**: Closed at 2208.00 with a weekly decrease of 0.63% [2]. - **Gold**: Closed at 771.80 with a weekly decrease of 1.06% [2]. - **Crude oil**: Closed at 447.90 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Closed at 4349.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.23% [2]. - **Glass**: Closed at 982.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.80% [2]. - **PVC**: Closed at 4764.00 with a weekly decrease of 1.85% [2]. - **Iron ore**: Closed at 702.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.23% [2]. - **Rebar**: Closed at 2961.00 with a weekly decrease of 2.79% [2]. - **Coke**: Closed at 1308.00 with a weekly decrease of 5.42% [2]. A-shares - **CSI 500**: Closed at 5671.07 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - **CSI 300**: Closed at 3840.23 with a weekly decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **SSE 50**: Closed at 2678.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.22% [2]. Overseas Stocks - **Nikkei 225**: Closed at 37965.10 with a weekly increase of 2.17% [2]. - **Nasdaq Composite**: Closed at 19113.77 with a weekly increase of 2.01% [2]. - **S&P 500**: Closed at 5911.69 with a weekly increase of 1.88% [2]. - **FTSE 100**: Closed at 8772.38 with a weekly increase of 0.62% [2]. - **CAC 40**: Closed at 7751.89 with a weekly increase of 0.23% [2]. - **Hang Seng Index**: Closed at 23289.77 with a weekly decrease of 1.32% [2]. Bonds - **5-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.58 with a weekly increase of 2.36% [2]. - **2-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.50 with a weekly increase of 1.35% [2]. - **10-year Chinese Treasury bond**: Closed at 1.70 with a weekly decrease of 1.33% [2]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: Closed at 99.44 with a weekly increase of 0.32% [2]. - **US Dollar central parity rate**: Closed at 7.18 with a weekly decrease of 0.10% [2]. - **EUR/USD**: Closed at 1.13 with a weekly decrease of 0.14% [2]. Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 8 expect a sideways trend [3]. - **Bullish logic**: May PMI data shows significant improvement in corporate export orders; ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 index increased by 600 million this week; The Premier emphasized increasing policy support to expand consumption; Market sentiment for real estate and fiscal policies is expected to further recover [3]. - **Bearish logic**: May construction and service sector PMI is not high; A-share average daily trading volume decreased by 79.4 billion yuan week-on-week; Weak domestic demand affects profit expectations; Trump's false social media posts on China trade increase tariff uncertainty [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [3]. - **Bullish logic**: Setbacks in China-US economic and trade negotiations support the bond market; Manufacturing PMI remains below the boom-bust line; Weak stock market momentum benefits the bond market; Supply-demand disturbances in the bond market weaken after partial issuance [3]. - **Bearish logic**: Industrial enterprise profit growth rebounds; High-speed profit growth in new kinetic energy industries; Banks and insurance companies have limited capacity to absorb bond supply; Market concerns about rising certificate of deposit rates persist [3]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - **Bullish logic**: Saudi Arabia's production increase falls short of expectations; Low oil prices hinder US shale oil supply growth; The Northern Hemisphere enters the peak season for refined oil; Chinese refineries plan to end maintenance in June [4]. - **Bearish logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in July; A large amount of US Treasury bonds will mature in June; Trump reignites China-US trade disputes; Global economic weakness and trade frictions drag down oil demand [4]. Agricultural Products Sector Cotton - **Strategy view**: Among 8 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4]. - **Bullish logic**: Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory is depleting faster; Import window is mostly closed; India's cotton production decreases year-on-year; US cotton sowing progress lags behind [4]. - **Bearish logic**: The domestic textile industry enters the off-season; Textile enterprises' operating rates decline; Finished product inventories increase; Post-Dragon Boat Festival temperature rise benefits new cotton growth; US cotton-growing areas have good weather [4]. Non-ferrous Metals Sector Copper - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - **Bullish logic**: Global copper mine supply is disrupted; LME copper inventory is falling; Domestic social inventory is low; Strong demand from power grid and new energy industries [5]. - **Bearish logic**: US steel tariff hikes raise stagflation expectations; Weak domestic commodity market sentiment; Widening scrap-copper price difference; Poor cable orders [5]. Chemical Sector Soda Ash - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5]. - **Bullish logic**: Maintenance peaks in July and August may ease supply pressure; Strong export performance; Stable light soda ash demand [5]. - **Bearish logic**: Weak glass demand affects the soda ash market; End of the PV installation rush; Low downstream purchasing enthusiasm; High production and inventory levels limit price increases [5]. Precious Metals Sector Gold - **Strategy view**: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [6]. - **Bullish logic**: US steel and aluminum tariff hikes increase uncertainty; Central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand support prices; SPDR Gold ETF holdings increase; Long-term logic of gold as a hedge against credit currency risk [6]. - **Bearish logic**: US economic data shows resilience; The Fed's May meeting was hawkish; US stocks showed no significant reaction to tariff hikes; Market sensitivity to Trump's policies may decline [6]. Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - **Strategy view**: Among 9 institutions, 0 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6]. - **Bullish logic**: Steel mills maintain profits; Port iron ore inventory decreases; Steel mills' imported ore inventory is low; Global iron ore shipments decline [6]. - **Bearish logic**: Trump plans to double steel and aluminum import tariffs; Mainstream ore shipments recover; Daily pig iron production decreases; Daily port throughput decreases; Weak domestic real estate market [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of false breakouts in trading, suggesting that recognizing these can lead to more confident counter-trading actions [1] - It highlights the current macroeconomic environment, indicating a balanced and slightly loose funding situation with a small decline in long-term bond yields [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 291.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 148.6 billion yuan after 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. appellate court temporarily reinstated Trump tariffs, contributing to a weak stock market and a slight decline in bond market rates [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly lower and fluctuated, with the lowest rate reaching 1.667% before closing at 1.675% [3][4] - Market participants were closely monitoring the central bank's announcements regarding bond purchases, although no such operations were conducted, leading to a slight rebound in rates [3][4]

Infrastructure Investment - China's infrastructure development shows significant regional and structural differences, with the central and western regions needing to address gaps in transportation, energy, and new infrastructure like 5G and data centers, while eastern developed areas focus on upgrading traditional infrastructure [2] - The central government emphasizes "precise and effective investment" to avoid blind expansion, prioritizing major projects and new urbanization in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Consumer Coupons - Consumer coupons have provided immediate boosts to specific sectors such as dining, retail, and tourism, alleviating pressure on small and medium enterprises, with notable sales recovery following their distribution in 2022 [4] - However, reliance on consumer coupons alone cannot address the fundamental issue of consumption decline, which is primarily driven by unstable income expectations [4] Industrial Innovation - Industrial innovation is crucial for China's economic transformation, particularly with the rise of the digital economy and emerging industries like AI, new energy, and biomedicine, which are key drivers of sustained economic growth [5] - The government is accelerating technological innovation through initiatives like "ranking and hanging banners," technology special funds, and industry-academia-research cooperation [6] Urbanization - As of 2023, China's urbanization rate is approximately 66.16%, transitioning from a "high-speed" to a "high-quality" development phase, focusing on coordinated development of urban clusters [8] - Despite claims of many cities becoming towns, data shows over 100 cities still possess strong development potential [8] Real Estate Market - The real estate market exhibits clear differentiation, with some third and fourth-tier cities experiencing price adjustments due to population outflow and inventory buildup, while first-tier and core second-tier cities maintain stable prices [11] - The central government adheres to the "housing is for living, not speculation" policy, promoting measures to support rigid and improved housing demand [11] Stock Market and Economy - The stock market reflects economic conditions, with long-term performance driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, necessitating reforms to enhance market efficiency and direct funds towards innovation and green economy sectors [12] - To achieve sustainable growth similar to the US stock market, China must cultivate globally competitive enterprises, particularly in new energy and high-end manufacturing [12] Industry Upgrading - The growth of enterprises is a natural result of market competition rather than direct government intervention, which should focus on creating a fair competitive environment and supporting innovation [14] - Upgrading the manufacturing sector is essential, requiring technological innovation and digital transformation to increase added value, rather than over-reliance on short-term gains from real estate or financial markets [14]

Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor stated that Iran is willing to commit to never developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions, leading to a drop of over 3% in oil prices [1] - WTI crude oil fell over 3% to $60.60 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also dropped over 3% to $63.97 per barrel [2] - The geopolitical situation is easing, and high U.S. Treasury yields are pressuring commodities, causing gold, silver, copper, and oil to decline [5] Group 2 - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.5%, Germany's DAX down 0.4%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.5% [9] - The Indian stock market maintained its upward trend after President Trump mentioned India's proposal to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods [9] - The Japanese opposition party suggested using long-term U.S. Treasury holdings and importing U.S.-made Japanese cars as negotiation leverage in trade talks with Washington [12]

Core Viewpoint - The founder of macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., Jones, suggests that even if Trump takes action, the stock market may still hit new lows due to the conflicting focus on tariffs and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [1] Group 1 - Trump's focus is primarily on tariffs, which may not be sufficient to support the stock market [1] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining its position of not lowering interest rates, which is unfavorable for the stock market [1]

特朗普：股市只是一个"指标" 加总理即将访问白宫 金十数据5月1日讯，美国总统特朗普在内阁会议上表示，他不打算为股市的情况"邀功"或"承担过错"， 股市只是一个指标，股市的情况表明他们接手了一个多么糟糕的局面，而在下个季度，仍会出现拜登所 带来的影响。特朗普还称，昨天加拿大总理卡尼向其通话，称希望达成协议，特朗普认为美国将与加拿 大建立良好的关系。此外，加拿大总理卡尼将于下周或更短的时间内访问白宫。 ...

"我不认为股市是终极目标，"美国总统特朗普在内阁会议上被问及过去几个月股市下跌时表示。"它是 一个指标。" 特朗普表示："我并不打算为股市邀功或承担过错，我只是说我们继承了一个烂摊子"。加拿大总理马克 ·卡尼将在下周之内访问白宫。特朗普表示，他周二与卡尼进行了通话，"他的态度再友好不过了"。"我 认为我们将会有很好的关系，"特朗普谈到两国关系时说。 ...