Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 288.4 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase and a 600 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 621.9 billion yuan into the market after 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements on August 25, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 6.20 basis points to 1.3560%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 2.10 basis points to 1.4840% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor fell by 2.60 basis points to 1.5550% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight and 14-day rates decreased, while the 7-day rates increased. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 6.3 basis points and 5.7 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rose by 5.4 basis points and 7.7 basis points [4] Funding Conditions - The overall funding conditions remained balanced and slightly loose throughout the day, with overnight rates for pledged deposits trading around 1.40%-1.42% and 7-day rates around 1.55% [10] - A total of 77 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 167.53 billion yuan [10] Secondary Market Trends - The secondary market for certificates of deposit showed a downward trend, with 3-month and 1-year yields slightly decreasing compared to the previous trading day [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the assets in the U.S. money market have reached a record high of $7.19 trillion, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI) [1] Group 2 - The data indicates a significant increase in money market assets, reflecting strong investor interest and confidence in this asset class [1] - The historical high suggests a shift in investment strategies, with more capital being allocated to safer, liquid assets amid market uncertainties [1]

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 253 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan after 128.7 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments fell across the board, with the 7-day Shibor dropping below 1.5%, specifically, the overnight Shibor decreased by 0.70 basis points to 1.4660%, and the 7-day Shibor fell by 3.90 basis points to 1.4950% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, various instruments saw slight declines, with the 7-day rates experiencing both volume and price drops. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 1.0 basis points and 4.3 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 168.2 billion yuan and 229.4 billion yuan [3] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 decreased by 5.4 basis points and 4.2 basis points, with transaction volumes decreasing by 10.5 billion yuan and 129.7 billion yuan, respectively [3] Money Market Trends - The money market showed a balanced but slightly tight situation in the morning, which shifted to a looser state after the open market operations. Overnight pledged rates for certificates of deposit traded around 1.60%-1.65%, while 7-day rates were around 1.55%-1.57% [7] - By the afternoon, the money market maintained a balanced to slightly loose stance, with overnight pledged rates dropping to as low as 1.45% [7] Green Finance Initiatives - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has decided to pilot green foreign debt business in 16 provinces and cities, encouraging non-financial enterprises to use cross-border financing for green or low-carbon transformation projects. This initiative aims to enhance the financing scale for such projects and streamline the registration process for foreign debt [9] Housing Fund Policy - The Chengdu Housing Provident Fund Management Committee issued a notice optimizing housing provident fund policies, including lowering down payment ratios, increasing loan limits, and supporting various housing-related financial activities [10]

新华财经北京8月20日电（高二山）人民银行20日开展6160亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有1185亿元7 天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放4975亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种涨势趋缓，14天品种微跌。具体来看，隔夜Shibor上涨0.90BP，报1.4730%；7天Shibor上涨 1.70BP，报1.5340%；14天Shibor下跌0.30BP，报1.5960%。 | | | | 2025-08-20 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.4730 | 0.90 | | ⇒ | 1W | 1.5340 | 1.70 | | ゃ | 2W | 1.5960 | 0.30 | | t | 1M | 1.5320 | 0.40 | | 价 | 3M | 1.5500 | 0.00 | | 价 | 6M | 1.6100 | 0.00 | | ゃ | 9M | 1.6400 | 0.30 | | ↑ | 1Y | 1.6490 | 0. ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 580.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products continued to rise, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 2.80 basis points to 1.4640%, the 7-day Shibor rising by 3.40 basis points to 1.5170%, and the 14-day Shibor increasing by 6.20 basis points to 1.5990% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, various products continued to show a slight upward trend, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 11.7%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 2.3 basis points and 4.4 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rose by 3.1 basis points and 5.5 basis points [4] Group 2 - The money market showed a tight funding situation throughout the day, with major banks reducing lending volumes and a strong demand for borrowing from banking institutions. Overnight pledged rate certificates traded around 1.60%-1.63%, while 7-day pledged rate certificates traded around 1.55%-1.58% [10] - As of 5:30 PM on August 19, there were 49 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with an actual issuance amount of 26.06 billion yuan [10] - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, except for 1-month and 6-month maturities, other maturities were all due on working days. The secondary market for certificates of deposit showed a downward trend, with yields for various maturities declining compared to the previous day's close [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the interbank currency market experienced an increase in trading volume while the balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and large commercial banks' average net lending balance falling [1][2][3] Group 2 - In July, the total trading volume in the currency market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily transaction decreased by 2.2% to 8.1 trillion yuan [2] - The central bank intensified liquidity provision, resulting in an overall balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] - The average daily balance in the currency market decreased to 12.8 trillion yuan, down 2.1% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks fell by 4.0% [5] Group 3 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with total bond issuance in July at 5.29 trillion yuan, a decline of 0.6% from the previous month, but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [6] - The bond market saw a fluctuation in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the yield curve steepening [8] - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with daily average transaction volume increasing by 44.8% in July [9]

Group 1 - The overall trading volume in the money market increased, while the average balance decreased, with most repo rates declining and the average net lending balance of large commercial banks falling [2][3][5] - In July, the total trading volume in the money market reached 185.2 trillion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.4%, while the average daily trading volume was 8.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% [2] - The central bank increased liquidity support, resulting in a generally balanced and loose funding environment, with a net injection of 468 billion yuan in the open market throughout the month [3][4] Group 2 - Bond issuance and average daily trading volume decreased month-on-month, with government bond yields rising overall and the yield curve steepening [6][8] - In July, 5.29 trillion yuan of bonds were issued, a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, while net financing increased by 169.5 billion yuan, a rise of 7.9% [6] - The bond market saw yields fluctuating upwards, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.64% and 1.75%, and the curve steepening [8] Group 3 - The interest rate swap curve shifted from inverted to upward sloping, with an increase in trading volume [9] - In July, the average daily trading volume of RMB interest rate swaps increased by 44.8%, with a nominal principal total of 4.6 trillion yuan [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.334%, 4.737%, 3.447% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.033 (Italy) to 0.041 (UK), weekly changes from - 0.004 (Japan) to 0.173 (UK), monthly changes from - 0.126 (Switzerland) to 0.155 (France), and annual changes from - 0.274 (Japan) to 0.760 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 18, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740%, 3.959%, 1.956% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.024 (Australia) to 0.070 (US), weekly changes from - 0.200 (US) to 0.186 (Italy), monthly changes from - 0.703 (Italy) to 0.553 (Japan), and annual changes showed various trends [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: On August 18, 2025, the US dollar - to - emerging - economy currency exchange rates such as South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. had different values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.69% (Russian ruble) to 0.65% (South African rand), weekly changes from - 2.35% (South African rand) to 0.38% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 8.22% (Thai baht) to 0.77% (South Korean won), and annual changes also varied [2]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 18, 2025, major global stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had different closing values. The latest changes ranged from - 0.50% (Mexican index) to 0.21% (Nasdaq), weekly changes from - 0.18% (UK index) to 8.70% (Spanish index), monthly changes from 8.78% (Mexican index) to 44.46% (Spanish index), and annual changes also showed different trends [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes in credit bond indices ranged from - 0.08% to 0.08%, weekly changes from - 0.06% to 0.56%, monthly changes from - 0.13% to 2.43%, and annual changes from 4.84% to 15.88% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3728.03, 4239.41, 2838.87, 2606.20, and 6668.17 respectively, with daily changes of 0.85%, 0.88%, 0.21%, 2.84%, and 1.52% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.54, 11.56, 31.94, 27.34, and 20.08 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.08, 0.04, 0.37, 0.00, and - 0.04 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.68 and 2.22 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.04 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were 78.73, - 179.13, N/A, 216.70, and 110.91 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 306.54, - 333.88, N/A, 26.76, and 51.22 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext were 27641.63, 6353.66, 1621.58, 5485.68, and 8295.86 respectively, with环比 changes of 5195.51, 1166.79, 199.53, 1082.87, and 1773.47 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 1.61, 9.53, and - 60.17 respectively, with basis ratios of - 0.04%, 0.34%, and - 0.90% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.015, 105.455, 107.865, and 105.380 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5037%, 1.5030%, and 1.5490% respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's attitude towards protecting the liquidity is clear, and the capital interest rate is expected to decline in August [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking - The Fed did not cut interest rates in July, and the short - term interest rate of US Treasury bonds remained stable. Since July, the 3 - month US Treasury bond rate has been stable, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have been operating stably [2][6]. - The benchmark interest rates of Japan, the eurozone, and the US as of specific dates are 0.5% (Japan: policy target rate of base money on 2025 - 01 - 24), 2.15% (eurozone: benchmark interest rate of main refinancing operations on 2025 - 6 - 5), and 4.25 - 4.50% (US: federal funds target rate range on 2024 - 12 - 18) [8]. Domestic Key Monetary Market Indicator Change Tracking Price Indicators - After crossing the end of the half - year, in July, the average values of repurchase rates in the inter - bank and exchange markets mostly declined. R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 monthly average values changed by - 3BP, - 25BP, - 10BP, and - 14BP respectively [2][10][15]. - The monthly average values of short - term bond yields mostly declined. For 1 - year short - term bonds such as 1 - year Treasury bonds, 1 - year China Development Bank bonds, and 1 - year AAA commercial paper, their yields decreased to different degrees [15][36]. - In July, the average value of DR007 decreased slightly. The average values of DR001 and DR007 were 1.39% and 1.52%, changing by 0BP and - 6BP respectively compared with the previous month. The 1 - day and 7 - day spread averages of R and DR changed by - 4BP [22]. - The average value of exchange repurchase rates mostly declined in July. The average values of GC001 and GC007 were 1.45% and 1.54%, down 25BP and 14BP respectively from the previous month [26]. - The average monthly interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) decreased slightly in July. The interest rates of 1 - year high - grade and low - grade CDs both decreased by 3BP [31]. - The 7 - day annualized yield of money funds declined. The 7 - day average annualized yield of Yu'E Bao decreased to 1.09% in July, and the average 7 - day annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds decreased by - 9BP and - 7BP respectively compared with the previous month [39]. Quantity Indicators - In July, the overnight trading volumes in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month, while their proportions increased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market was 6.70 trillion, accounting for 88.3%, and that of GC001 in the exchange market was 1.86 trillion, accounting for 87.0% [44]. - The average monthly year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets decreased compared with the previous month. The year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market decreased by 3% in July, and that in the exchange market decreased by 2% [51]. - The excess deposit reserve ratio decreased compared with the previous month. It is estimated that the excess deposit reserve ratios in July and August are 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. In July, fiscal deposits increased seasonally by 770 billion yuan due to tax payment periods and high government bond issuance [48][50]. Capital Outlook Five - Channel Prediction - **M0**: In July, M0 increased seasonally by 9.73 billion yuan, and it is estimated to increase by 5.5 billion yuan in August [63]. - **Legal Deposit Reserves**: In July, RMB loans declined for the first time in nearly 20 years, and financial institutions' RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan. It is expected that deposits will increase by 2500 billion yuan in August, resulting in an increase of 155 billion yuan in legal deposit reserves [64]. - **Fiscal Deposits**: Fiscal deposits increased by 770 billion yuan in July due to tax payment periods and high - volume government bond issuance. It is expected to increase by 600 billion yuan in August [67]. - **Foreign Exchange Holdings**: Due to the suspension of China - US tariff negotiations for 90 days, the increase of the average global tariff rate by the US, and the new 40% transit tariff, foreign exchange holdings are expected to decrease by 70 billion yuan in August [72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank is expected to conduct net injections to maintain a loose capital market. In July, the central bank conducted net injections through open - market operations and买断式repurchase operations. It is expected to conduct net injections of 400 billion yuan in August through these two methods, and the excess deposit reserve ratio is estimated to be 1.2% in August after comprehensive consideration of the five - channel changes [80]. Main Conclusion - Historically, in August, most of the inter - bank overnight repurchase rates declined. The median monthly average change of R001 in the past three years was - 4BP, and that of R007 was - 2BP [81]. - The central bank's operation on the first - round local bond issuance day after the restoration of VAT on government bonds and financial bonds shows a clear attitude of maintaining a stable and loose liquidity. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, which provides space for China's monetary policy. It is expected that the market interest rate will decline seasonally in August [84][85].

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan due to 1,385 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments remained stable, with overnight Shibor at 1.3150% (unchanged), 7-day Shibor at 1.4340% (up 0.10 basis points), and 14-day Shibor at 1.4730% (up 1.70 basis points) [1][2] Market Overview - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates remained stable, with R007 transaction volume increasing to 9.5%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 0.0 basis points to 1.3164% and 1.3491%, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing by 635 billion yuan and 494 billion yuan [4] - The overall funding environment was described as loose, with overnight rates for non-bank transactions ranging from 1.36% to 1.40%, and 7-day rates around 1.45% to 1.48% [10] Financial Data - As of the end of July, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 272.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, while the balance of deposits was 327.83 trillion yuan, up 9% [13] - The total social financing stock was reported at 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9%, with a cumulative increase of 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [13]