Group 1: Market Performance - Last week (August 4 - August 8), the US soybean futures price fluctuated. The November contract of the US soybean main force had a weekly decline of 0.15%, and the December contract of the US soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.64% [1]. - Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated. The m2509 contract of the soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.16%, and the a2509 contract of the soybean No. 1 main force had a weekly decline of 0.32% [1]. Group 2: International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean sales increased week - on - week and were higher than expected. In the week ending July 31, the 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 690,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 63%. The cumulative 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 47.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The current and next - year net sales of US soybeans were about 1.02 million tons, higher than the expected 300,000 - 800,000 tons [1]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week and met expectations. As of the week ending August 4, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, compared with 70% the previous week and 68% the same period last year [1]. - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crush margin: As of the week ending August 8, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crush margin increased week - on - week [1]. - The weather forecast for the US soybean main production areas: In mid - August (August 13 - August 21), precipitation in the US soybean main production areas will decrease and the temperature will be higher, which has a slightly positive impact [1]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Sales volume: The soybean meal sales volume increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily sales volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills in China was about 510,000 tons, compared with about 300,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Pick - up volume: The soybean meal pick - up volume decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal of major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 194,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Basis: The soybean meal basis increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 112 yuan/ton, compared with about - 123 yuan/ton the previous week [3]. - Inventory: The soybean meal inventory was basically flat week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 1, the soybean meal inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 920,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [3]. - Crushing volume: The domestic soybean weekly crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic soybean weekly crushing volume was about 2.18 million tons, and it is expected to be about 2.37 million tons next week [3]. Group 4: Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - Prices: The soybean prices in the Northeast production area were slightly weaker, while those in other areas were stable. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in some areas in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week [4]. - New soybean growth: The new soybeans in the Northeast production area are growing well, and the willingness to hold prices has weakened. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in many places if there is no extreme weather later [4]. - State - reserve auction: The one - way auction of state - reserve soybeans started, and the first auction ended in failure. On August 8, 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans were planned to be auctioned at a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold [4]. - Demand in the sales area: The demand in the sales area is flat. Although the Beginning of Autumn has passed, the temperature in many places is still high, and it will take time for the terminal demand for soybean products to recover [4]. Group 5: Market Forecast - Next week (August 11 - August 15), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures are expected to fluctuate. Domestic soybean meal will be slightly stronger due to concerns about the trade war. For domestic soybeans, the spot price in the Northeast production area is slightly weaker, and the new soybeans are growing well [5].

美媒：关税致食品成本飙升 美国多家餐厅陷经营困境 图为美国民众在马里兰州罗克韦尔一超市购物。 中新社记者 沙晗汀 摄 据报道，餐厅几乎没有回旋余地来应对食品成本上涨，稍有不慎便会侵蚀利润，而随着特朗普政府的贸 易战仍在持续发酵，可能会继续推高西红柿等其他食品的价格。 除了成本上涨之外，消费者不再经常外出就餐也增加了餐厅的经营压力。 报道称，低收入消费者继续感受到生活成本上涨的压力，因此支出速度放缓。而多年来的高通胀也让美 国消费者不堪重负，中等收入消费者也面临压力。 美国经济专家表示，由于同时感受到销售疲软和关税的双重打击，许多餐厅正陷入困境。 中新网8月10日电 据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道，美国关税阴影下，牛肉、鸡蛋等食品价格上涨， 推高美国餐厅经营成本，加之消费者对经济前景感到担忧，美国多家餐厅的经营陷入困境。 报道举例称，俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的艾克辣椒餐厅(Ike's Chili)已有117年历史，经历了大萧条、通货膨 胀等诸多挑战后，2025年，其将面临更加严峻的挑战。 餐厅相关负责人韦德称，"所有东西的成本都在上涨，我们必须想办法妥善管理。" 韦德表示，"餐厅需要再次涨价，但我担心价格会将顾客 ...

特朗普还真是个"愣头青"，敢直接对两个最大的发展中国家"宣战"。 在当地时间8月6日，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，以印度通过"直接或间接方式"购买俄罗斯能源为由， 对进口印度的商品加征25%的关税。如果算上之前美国对印度的关税，当前总体关税税率已达到50%。 而特朗普自上台后就急迫的希望能够结束俄乌冲突，收回美国在乌克兰上千亿美元的军援成本。而且特 朗普还与乌克兰签订美乌矿产协定，目的也是为了攫取乌克兰的资源。 但这一切的前提就是俄乌停战，可问题是如果俄罗斯因为俄乌冲突没有获得足够的对北约的缓冲空间和 地缘安全空间，那这一仗就等于白打了，俄罗斯也就白被美西方制裁了。 可乌克兰背后除了美国还有欧盟，很难对特朗普做出太多让步，那么特朗普除了继续施压欧盟让乌克兰 做出更多让步外，最重要的就是对俄罗斯进行施压，让对方妥协。毕竟假如俄罗斯一直狮子大开口，那 么一味的让乌克兰让步也解决不了根本问题。 而让俄罗斯停火也很简单，只要堵住俄罗斯的经济发展，那么俄罗斯没钱了，自然仗就打不下去了。只 是俄罗斯的经济收入主要依靠能源出口，而中印持续不断的购买俄罗斯石油，使得俄罗斯可以抵御美西 方的制裁。所以特朗普才会对印度加征关税，并 ...

中美贸易战从2018年就开始了，那时候特朗普第一任期内就对中国商品加征关税，目标是减少贸易赤字和保护美国制造业。到了2025年，特朗普第二次上台 后，这场战火又烧得更旺。1月20日他就职没多久，就在2月初宣布对部分中国电子产品和机械设备加征10%关税。这不是突然的举动，早在他竞选时就反复 提过要对中国征收60%以上的关税。 结果3月3日，他签署行政令，再对中国、墨西哥和加拿大商品加征关税，中国商品的总税率一下子推到54%。中国政府当然没坐视不管，3月10日国务院关 税税则委员会就回应，对美国鸡肉、小麦和玉米等加征15%关税。双方你来我往，4月2日中美贸易战正式融入全球贸易战框架，美国把关税扩展到更多国 家，但中国成了重点目标。 美国这么做，本意是想平衡贸易逆差，让制造业回流本土。特朗普在白宫多次强调，高关税能逼企业把工厂搬回美国，创造就业。但实际情况没那么简单。 4月9日，美国对中国商品累积加征104%关税正式实施，这数字听起来吓人，覆盖了从电子到机械的广泛领域。中国经济学家分析，这种极端税率会推高美 国进口成本，最终转嫁到消费者头上。 果然，美国企业开始抱怨原材料涨价，生产链条受阻。国际货币基金组织在7月2 ...

特朗普自诩为天下第一的"交易高手"，自其挑起关税大战后取得了一个又一个所谓的"胜利"。迄今为止，只有中国，加拿大，巴西等少数硬骨头还没有被啃 下，其他国家和地区的对等关税税率基本被摆平，从10%到50%。 欧盟，日本和韩国等盟友经过与美方的谈判，虽然争取到了减少几个百分点，但实际上却付出了非常沉重的代价。美国对日本课征15%的关税，日本付出的 代价是开放美国汽车与稻米等农产品进口，并承诺对美投资5500亿美元。韩国享受了与日本相同的关税，前提是韩国全面开放美国汽车与农产品进口，并承 诺对美投资3500亿美元。欧盟的关税从20%降至15%的前提是欧盟对美关税归零，承诺对美投资6000亿美元、进口7500亿美元的能源。 不过，这些数千亿美元的贸易计划，何时落地以及如何落地，美欧日都没有详细的说明，毕竟"许愿"要比兑现承诺要容易得多。当然，特朗普看重的可能是 夸张的数字所带来的情绪价值，至于对方何时兑现，或许压根都不是他考虑的范围。令世界都没有想到的是，尽管美国将中国列为视为头号竞争对手，但却 唯独对中国给予"特殊待遇"。英国媒体评论称，中美之间的贸易谈判与其他国家不同，中美之间的关税谈判，完全在不同的框架和时间线 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 今年4月以来，美国政府挥舞关税大棒，大幅提高自欧盟进口汽车关税，重创欧洲汽车产业，导致德国 主要车企集体陷入利润暴跌的"寒冬"。 欧美日前达成新协议，欧盟输美汽车关税从25%降至15%。分析人士指出，该协议或将暂时避免欧美之 间爆发全面贸易战，但德国制造业的困境远未解除，仍然高企的出口成本与政策反复所带来的不确定 性，正在持续削弱车企信心。 ...

新华财经内罗毕8月9日电肯尼亚主流媒体《星报》8日刊发肯尼亚国际关系学者阿德希尔·卡文斯题为 《非洲如何应对特朗普的惩罚性关税》的文章说，美国政府全面加征关税政策近日生效，此类保护主义 政策将导致贸易规模缩减、经济增长放缓、居民消费价格上涨及地缘政治风险上升。美国重启贸易战并 与主要贸易伙伴形成对抗态势，恐将破坏数十年来形成的全球经济一体化格局。文章摘要如下： 美国关税壁垒推高进口商品成本，迫使全球产业链供应链加速重组。美国的惩罚性征税措施，可能阻断 大宗商品、电子产品及纺织品等关键领域贸易通道。 非洲大陆高度依赖出口贸易、外国投资及多边贸易体系，惩罚性关税将加剧其经济脆弱性。在非洲应对 债务危机、气候灾害及新冠疫情后复苏等多重挑战之际，贸易战进一步挤压其发展空间。相较于其他具 备财政缓冲能力的大型经济体，非洲国家缺乏抵御贸易冲击的政策工具。 以肯尼亚为例，特朗普政府对肯输美商品加征关税暂缓期已结束，肯尼亚面临严峻关税冲击，预计将面 临60万个就业岗位流失及逾130亿肯尼亚先令（1美元约合129肯尼亚先令）财政收入损失。 当前，《非洲大陆自由贸易协定》虽稳步推进，但区域内贸易仅占非洲贸易总量的18%，难以抵消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's imposition of punitive tariffs, highlighting the potential negative effects on global trade, economic growth, and geopolitical stability, particularly for African economies [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff barriers are expected to increase the cost of imported goods, leading to a restructuring of global supply chains [1]. - The punitive tariffs may disrupt trade channels in key sectors such as commodities, electronics, and textiles [1]. - African economies, which heavily rely on export trade, foreign investment, and multilateral trade systems, will face increased economic vulnerability due to these tariffs [1]. Group 2: Specific Case of Kenya - Kenya is projected to experience significant adverse effects from the U.S. tariffs, with an estimated loss of 600,000 jobs and over 13 billion Kenyan shillings in fiscal revenue [1]. - The end of the grace period for tariffs on Kenyan goods entering the U.S. poses a severe challenge for the country [1]. Group 3: Regional Trade Dynamics - Despite the ongoing progress of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, intra-African trade accounts for only 18% of total African trade, which is insufficient to mitigate the impacts of global trade disruptions [2]. - The article emphasizes the need for African nations to diversify their trade strategies, reduce dependency on the U.S. market, and strengthen regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework [2].

据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普7月31日签署行政令，从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。此消息 一经传出，瞬间在国际社会掀起波澜。美加这两大关系紧密的国家，贸易争端再度升级，而加拿大在其中的表现，也引 发了诸多关注与讨论。 从政治和战略安全角度而言，加拿大与美国是长期的盟友关系，在战略、安全等方面高度依赖美国。自一战二战后，两 国结成一体化同盟，加拿大在政治、军事等诸多方面受美国影响和庇护。从北约事务到情报共享，再到经贸供应链，加 拿大都难以摆脱对美国的依赖。在这种情况下，加拿大所谓的强硬，更多像是表面功夫，很难在根本上违背美国的意 志。而中国始终坚持独立自主的和平外交政策，在国际事务中拥有完全独立的主权和自主决策能力。在面对美国的贸易 挑衅以及其他方面的不合理施压时，中国能够坚定地捍卫自身利益，不受外部势力的无端干涉。 再从政策制定和延续性来看，加拿大当下对美贸易政策很大程度上是延续前总理特鲁多时期的策略。现任总理卡尼在上 任后，在对美贸易问题上并没有提出具有创新性和独立性的主张。这就导致一旦美国进一步加大压力，卡尼很可能将责 任推给前任特鲁多，进而选择妥协退让。反观中国，在应对美国贸易 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 俏尔婷婷盈利能力改善，上半年高分红 [Table_Title2] 健盛集团(603558) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603558 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 11.86/7.88 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 34.05 | | 最新收盘价： | 9.64 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 34.05 | | | | 自由流通股数(万) | 353.18 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025H1 公司收入/归母净利/扣非净利/经营性现金流分别为 11.70/1.42/1.36/2.52 亿元、同比增长 0.19%/-14.46%/-15.84%/146.96%，净利下降我们分析主要由于关税反复、市场疲软影响下而产能端人员配备 超配，叠加引入新高管导致管理费用增加；经营性现金流净高于归母净利主要由于经营性应收项目减少。 25Q2 收 ...