Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the performance of dividend style in 2025 is expected to be relatively flat, characterized by phase-specific and structural opportunities. The Chinese stock market has performed well since the beginning of the year, while the dividend style has shown a lackluster performance. The report suggests that the dividend style will have relative performance during periods of increased external uncertainty and corrections in growth styles [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - The current low long-term interest rates in China have entered a volatile phase, with market risk appetite significantly improving, which supports the dividend style. The report notes that the factors supporting the dividend style have been largely reflected, while the stability of the underlying companies will be a key focus for future stock selection [1][5]. - The report anticipates that the A-share market style may become more balanced in 2026, with a higher certainty for dividend style, but still leaning towards structural and phase-specific opportunities. The demand for fund allocation will support the performance of the dividend sector [2]. Group 2: Long-term Capital and Investment Trends - The policy environment encourages long-term capital, such as insurance and pension funds, to enter the market, enhancing the stability of the capital market. As of Q3, the scale of stocks and securities held by insurance companies has increased to 5.6 trillion yuan, marking a new high since 2013, with a rising position of 1.9 percentage points to 14.9% [3][14]. - The current macro liquidity is relatively loose, with government bond yields at historical lows, leading to a decline in traditional savings advantages. This environment is expected to make dividend styles, which offer stable cash flows and valuation advantages, an attractive investment direction [3]. Group 3: Dividend Policy and Corporate Performance - The capital market emphasizes a balance between investment and financing, with ongoing encouragement for dividend policies. The willingness and ability of listed companies to distribute dividends have been on the rise, with the overall dividend payout ratio in A-shares expected to reach 45% by 2024, and the proportion of dividend-paying companies at 69.2% [4][17]. - The report highlights that since the second half of 2018, the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index has consistently exceeded the yield of ten-year government bonds, with the gap peaking at 490 basis points. However, recent market increases have led to a narrowing of this gap, with the dividend yield falling to around 320 basis points [4][19]. Group 4: Stock Selection Criteria for Dividend Style - The report outlines specific stock selection criteria for the dividend style, including market capitalization over 20 billion yuan, a price-to-earnings ratio below 25, and a dividend yield requirement based on industry volatility. For financial stocks, a dividend yield greater than 4.5% is required, while for cyclical industries, yields must exceed 4% or 3% depending on the stability of the sector [5]. - Additional criteria include a dividend payout ratio above 45% for non-financial companies, a free cash flow to equity ratio greater than 8%, and a three-year average return on equity (ROE) of over 6% for non-financial firms [5].

REITs 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 中证REITs全收益 沪深300 相关研究报告 《REITs 市场单周各板块均有所回 调，发行市场保持活跃—行业周报》 -2025.12.21 《提升全社会资源配置效率，保障房 REITs 单周表现优异—行业周报》 -2025.12.14 《稳步发展 REITs 和资产证券化， 发行市场保持活跃—行业周报》 -2025.12.7 保障房 REITs 单周表现优异，发行市场保持活跃 ——行业周报 一周行情：保障房 REITs 单周上涨 3.65%，单月累计下跌 0.83% 2025 年第 52 周，中证 REITs（收盘）指数为 783.86，同比下跌 2.59%，环比上 涨 1.39%，2024 年年初至累计上涨 3.63%，同期沪深 300 指数累计上涨 35.74%， 累计超额收益-32.11%。中证 REITs 全收益指数 1014.8，同比上涨 5.3%，环比上 涨 1.56%， 2024 年年初至今累计上涨 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 27 日 权益市场跨年行情对债市影响几何？ ——债市策略思考 核心观点 权益市场跨年行情或已启动，叠加贵金属引领的商品市场火热行情，或对债市资产荒 逻辑形成进一步冲击。在利率波动显著加大的市场环境下，波段交易策略虽理论占优 但实际操作难度较大，买入并持有的票息策略或凭借相对简单的操作思路、相对中性 的业绩表现而具有更高性价比。 ❑ 如何看待权益市场跨年行情 12 月 17 日至 26 日，上证指数走出八连阳行情，跨年行情或已启动，2020 年末以 茅指数为代表的核心资产行情或对理解当前权益市场跨年行情具有一定参考价 值。回顾 2020 年权益市场跨年行情，流动性充裕的宏观环境有助于提升核心资产 估值吸引力；投资者对业绩稳定性的偏好程度提高，形成对龙头公司的"抱团式" 追捧；公募基金发行规模增加引起建仓需求提升，形成基金发行-购买核心资产-股 价上涨-吸引更多资金的正向循环等因素共振，共同驱动权益市场走强。对比当下， 我们认为或存在同样利好权益市场走出跨年上涨行情的有利因素，包括低利率环 境进一步强化、科技领涨 ...

过去一周(2025年12月22日-2025年12月26日)，10年国债收益率呈窄幅横盘震荡状态。12月22日，12月LPR报价保持不变，现券收益率冲高震荡；12月23日， 流动性充裕环境下现券收益率有所回落；12月24日，宽货币预期扰动，现券收益率维持窄幅震荡状态；12月25日，资金面宽松引导短端利率下行，中长端利 率仍相对偏弱；12月26日，资金面维持宽松状态，市场交投情绪偏弱，债市延续震荡行情。截至周五收盘，10年国债活跃券收报1.8355%，30年国债活跃券 收报2.2210%。 浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，权益市场跨年行情或已启动，叠加贵金属引领的商品市场火热行情，或对债市资产荒逻辑形成进一步冲击。在利率波动显 著加大的市场环境下，波段交易策略虽理论占优但实际操作难度较大，买入并持有的票息策略或凭借相对简单的操作思路、相对中性的业绩表现而具有更高 性价比。 正文如下： 1.周度债市观察 1.1如何看待权益市场跨年行情 9月以来，权益市场持续处于横盘状态，上证指数在3700点至4100点之间宽幅震荡。12月17日至26日，上证指数走出八连阳行情，跨年行情或已启动。我们 认为，2020年末以茅指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China is expected to experience rapid growth in 2025, with nearly 80 products issued and a total market value exceeding 220 billion yuan, potentially driving over 1 trillion yuan in new project investments [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the secondary market for public REITs showed a "rise then fall" pattern, with the CSI REITs total return index increasing by 14.2% in the first half of the year, followed by a noticeable decline in the second half due to rising long-term interest rates and unlocking pressures [1] - By December 10, 2025, 61 out of 77 listed public REITs had increased in value, representing nearly 80% of the total, while 16 products saw declines [2] - The top-performing public REITs included 25 products with gains exceeding 20%, and 15 of those had gains over 30%, with the highest being the E Fund Huawai Market REIT, which saw a rise of over 70% before a temporary suspension [2][3] Group 2: Asset Class Performance - Consumer REITs performed particularly well, with four out of the top ten products in terms of growth being from this category, while industrial park REITs faced significant pressure, with the largest decline being 22.57% for the Zhongjin Hubei Ketiang REIT [3] - The Jinan Energy Heating REIT, launched in February 2025, achieved a notable increase of 66.81% during the year, indicating strong market interest [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the public REITs market will see both scale and quality improvements in 2026, with a more mature and deeper market expected to emerge [4] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, driven by macroeconomic conditions and ongoing policy support, although individual REIT performance may vary significantly [5] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors with stable cash flows and strong policy backing, particularly in areas like consumer infrastructure and public utilities [5][6]

中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 在政策推动下，我国REITs市场持续扩容，吸引越来越多机构投资者积极参与。 多类机构入场 当前，银行理财、私募基金、期货、信托等机构纷纷布局REITs，投资策略日趋多元。 瑞思不动产金融研究院院长朱元伟指出，公募REITs定位为"固收+"类补充资产，兼具4%～5%派息率和 二级市场流动性，可优化理财组合风险收益比。在经济增速放缓、利率下行的背景下，REITs作为类"固 收+"资产，长期配置价值凸显。 渤银理财方面指出，REITs通过证券化创新将不动产投资转化为标准化金融产品，以"定期分红机制+资 产增值潜力"为核心特点，为投资者打开了参与商业地产、基础设施等领域的便捷通道，成为多元资产 配置的重要补充。但需要注意的是，受不动产市场周期、利率环境及管理运营等因素影响，REITs价格 也会随之波动。 信银理财方面告诉记者，投资REITs有四方面考虑： 一是收益性与稳定性的平衡。REITs强制高比例分红的特性，在当前低利率环境下提供了具有吸引力的 当期现金流。无论是产权类的租金收入还是经营权类的收费现金流，都构成了产品收益的"压舱石"。 二是战略性价值与风险分散价值。REIT ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations today, with the ChiNext Index surpassing 3200 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed minor gains [1] - Over 3900 stocks declined, with trading volume increasing to 1.92 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as glass fiber, energy metals, photolithography machines, and precious metals saw significant gains, while aerospace equipment, sports, hotel and catering, and general retail sectors faced declines [1] - The power equipment industry attracted over 9.7 billion yuan in net inflows, while electronics, basic chemicals, and machinery also received substantial investments [1] Investment Insights - Guosheng Securities suggests that the 2026 year-end market has a solid foundation, with ample liquidity and high equity allocation likely from insurance funds [1] - The report indicates that four out of the last five year-end markets saw leading sectors continue to perform well, highlighting the importance of sectors like retail, light manufacturing, communication, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemicals [1] Spring Rally Expectations - Huatai Securities anticipates a potential spring rally next year, despite current market uncertainties [2] - Key catalysts for market improvement include foreign capital position adjustments post-Christmas, the upcoming annual report disclosures, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts in January [2] Stock Highlights - Newly listed stocks such as Nabichuan, Xihua Technology, and Tiansu Measurement saw significant price increases, with gains of 408.2%, 264.5%, and 174.5% respectively [2] - Nabichuan focuses on thermal management products for electric vehicle batteries and is a strategic supplier for major automotive brands [2] - Xihua Technology holds a 20% global market share in wind power gearbox components [2] Storage Industry Growth - The energy storage industry has seen explosive growth, with global battery shipments expected to exceed 650 GWh by 2025, marking an over 80% year-on-year increase [6] - China's energy storage system shipments are projected to surpass 320 GWh, with a growth rate exceeding 88% [6] - The data center storage market is also expected to grow rapidly, with lithium battery shipments projected to reach 15 GWh by 2025 and 69 GWh by 2027 [6] Company Performance - Tiansu Measurement has a strong presence in biomedicine, automotive, and new energy sectors, with a long-term gross profit margin above 50% [3] - The company has accumulated 133 patents, including 43 invention patents, showcasing its innovation capabilities [3] - The storage concept stocks, including Yidong Electronics and Baobian Electric, experienced significant price surges, indicating strong market interest [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].