Group 1 - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds has become more pronounced since July, with the A-share market strengthening due to policy support and capital inflow, leading the Shanghai Composite Index to surpass 3,800 points, a ten-year high [1] - The bond market has adjusted as funds have been diverted, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rebounding from around 1.64% in early July to over 1.8% [1] - The strong performance of the equity market is seen as a key driver of the bond market's adjustment, with a rebalancing of market risk appetite being a major underlying reason for the differing performances of stocks and bonds [1] Group 2 - The current bond market adjustment and the strengthening of the equity market may represent a correction of overpricing in bonds and a filling of valuation gaps in equities, driven by shifts in risk appetite, policy expectations, and capital reallocation [2] - The relationship between stocks and bonds is not always a "see-saw"; there can be scenarios where both markets perform well simultaneously, particularly when falling funding rates influence asset price judgments [2] - The ongoing liquidity easing, influenced by declining bank deposit rates, may also play a role in the current market dynamics, as investors seek higher returns from equities, which in turn affects bond yields [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may gradually recover in an oscillatory and progressive manner as the correlation between stocks and bonds weakens and commodity pressure eases, but other markets, seasonal factors, and regulatory policies may cause oscillations during the recovery process. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation, and long - term bond rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with rates expected to hit new lows this year [4][6][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Performance This Week - This week, both long - term and short - term bonds remained oscillating. The active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, 250011.IB and 2500002.IB, changed by - 1.25bps and 0.95bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.77% and 2.03%. After the month - end, the capital price remained loose, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit stayed at around 1.67%. Credit interest rates declined slightly, with the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 1.7bps and 1.9bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.92% and 2.05% [1][9] Weakening Impact of the Stock and Commodity Markets on the Bond Market - The impact of the stock and commodity markets on the bond market has gradually weakened. The 10 - day moving correlation coefficient between the daily interest rate change of the 30 - year active bond and the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from around 0.8 in late July to around 0.15 currently. On one hand, it is due to the change in bond institutional positions; on the other hand, the relative cost - effectiveness of bonds compared with stocks has gradually increased. Since the end of July, the commodity price index has continued to decline, and the Nanhua Industrial Product Price Index on September 4th has cumulatively dropped by 6.3% compared with the high on July 25th [2][10] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The loose capital and banks' under - allocation are the main protections for the bond market. The fundamentals are still under pressure, the demand is not strong, and the financing demand is insufficient, so the loose capital situation remains unchanged. The future asset supply will further decline, and the net financing of government bonds in the next 4 months may significantly decrease compared with the same period last year. For banks, the deposit growth rate is rising while the credit growth rate is slowing down, so banks need to increase bond allocation to make up for the gap, and they may have a high willingness to increase allocation [3][10] Reasons for the Oscillatory and Progressive Recovery of the Bond Market - Other markets still impact the bond market. Although the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened, non - banks still hold a relatively high position in long - term bonds, and a significant rise in the stock market may lead to institutional selling and short - term bond market fluctuations. Seasonal factors may restrict the downward speed of interest rates. September is often a period of interest rate adjustment, and October is an oscillatory period. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may reduce institutional willingness to invest in bond funds, and the redemption behavior may bring short - term adjustment pressure to the market [4][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the public - offering REITs market fluctuated and rose. The trading volume and turnover rate of most types of public - offering REITs declined, while most products increased. The market is expected to continue to expand, and its activity is expected to further improve. In the context of the asset shortage, public - offering REITs have the advantages of high dividends and medium - low risks, with a relatively high allocation cost - performance [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market: This Week, the Public - Offering REITs Market Fluctuated and Rose - **Index Performance**: As of September 5, 2025, the China Securities REITs Index rose 0.03% from last week to 847.13, and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index rose 0.47% to 1078.42 [11]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The total trading volume of the REITs market this week was 619 million shares, a month - on - month decrease of 13.31%. The trading volume was 2.78 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.74%. The interval turnover rate was 2.73%, compared with 3.22% last week [12]. - **Index Differentiation**: The indices of equity - type public - offering REITs and franchise - type public - offering REITs were differentiated. Equity - type public - offering REITs rose 0.68%, and franchise - type public - offering REITs fell 0.49%. Among them, the guaranteed rental housing - type REITs had the highest increase, and the municipal facilities - type REITs had the highest decrease [14]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate of Different Types**: The trading volume of most types of public - offering REITs declined this week. The turnover rate of most types also decreased compared with last week [22][23]. - **Single - Target Performance**: Among the 73 public - offering REITs, 40 rose, 2 were flat, and 31 fell. The top - gainers included China Asset Management Hefei High - tech Industrial Park REIT, Huaan Bailian Consumption REIT, and China Asset Management Jinyu Zhizao Factory REIT, with weekly increases of 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.0% respectively. The top - losers included Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT, Ping An Guangzhou Expressway REIT, and E Fund Guangzhou Development Zone High - tech Industrial Park REIT, with weekly decreases of 7.3%, 3.6%, and 2.9% respectively [25]. 3.2 Primary Market: 23 Public - Offering REITs Funds are Waiting to be Listed - **Issuance in 2025**: As of September 5, 2025, a total of 74 public - offering REITs had been issued, with a total issuance scale of 194.5 billion yuan. Among them, 29 REITs were issued in 2024, with a total issuance scale of 64.6 billion yuan. Since 2025, 15 public - offering REITs have been issued, and no new ones were issued in September 2025 [31]. - **Pending Listings**: As of September 5, 2025, 23 public - offering REITs funds were waiting to be listed, including 12 initial offerings and 11 expansions. In terms of project status, 10 were approved, 7 had feedback, 5 were under inquiry, and 1 was accepted [33]. 3.3 Public - Offering REITs Policies and Market Dynamics - **Policy Support**: On September 4, the State Council issued a document supporting the issuance of public - offering REITs for eligible sports venue facilities [36]. - **Dividend Information**: On September 4, Huaan Waigaoqiao REIT announced its first dividend in 2025, with an available distribution amount of 45.1671 million yuan [38]. - **New Product Launch**: On September 6, it was reported that the first foreign - funded consumption REIT, China Asset Management CapitaLand Commercial REIT, would be officially launched from September 9 to 10, 2025. The offering price was 5.718 yuan per share, and the proposed total fundraising was 2.2872 billion yuan. During the offline inquiry stage, the subscription amount was 254.50 times the initial offline offering shares, setting a new high for consumption REITs [39][40]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Index and Market Performance**: This week, the REITs index rose. The China Securities REITs Index and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index rose 0.03% and 0.47% respectively from last week. The trading volume of the public - offering REITs market decreased. The equity - type public - offering REITs index rose 0.68% from last week, and the franchise - type public - offering REITs index fell 0.49% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Since this year, 15 public - offering REITs have been established, with a total scale of over 30 billion yuan. In addition, 23 REITs funds are waiting to be listed, and the market is expected to continue to expand, with its activity expected to further improve. Currently, in the context of the asset shortage, public - offering REITs have high dividends and medium - low risks, with a relatively high allocation cost - performance [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant underperformance of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - The non-farm employment data showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs in August, far below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [2] - Following the disappointing non-farm data, Barclays analysts now predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in March and June 2026 [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of potential stagflation in the U.S. economy, emphasizing the risks associated with high asset bubbles and the need for careful monetary policy [3][4] - It is noted that if employment continues to decline, the Federal Reserve may need to implement rate cuts of up to 100 basis points by early next year to prevent a rapid economic downturn [4] - The article warns that if financial risks escalate, the Federal Reserve might have to consider even larger cuts, potentially exceeding 150 basis points, to stabilize the financial markets [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the credit bond industry Core Insights - The report discusses the challenges of achieving excess returns in credit bond investments due to a low interest rate and low credit spread environment, emphasizing the need for effective investment strategies [5] - It outlines a framework for analyzing credit bonds, including market segmentation, historical performance during "asset scarcity" phases, and a five-factor model for credit spreads [5][7] - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the Chinese credit bond market, with total outstanding credit bonds reaching CNY 46.99 trillion by July 2025, of which non-financial credit bonds account for CNY 31.96 trillion [13][14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Chinese Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market in China has expanded significantly since 2009, with a notable increase in the variety of products available [11][13] - As of July 2025, the total balance of credit bonds is CNY 46.99 trillion, with non-financial credit bonds making up 68% of this total [13][14] 2. Analysis Framework for Credit Bond "Asset Scarcity" - The report analyzes four phases of "asset scarcity" since 2015, identifying key characteristics and predictive indicators for investors [5][7] 3. Historical Review of Credit Spreads - A historical review of credit spreads since 2008 reveals significant fluctuations, with a focus on the factors influencing these changes [5][7] 4. Research Framework for Credit Spreads - The report presents a five-factor model for analyzing credit spreads, noting that while the factors remain the same, the focus has shifted in the current market context [5][7] 5. Common Investment Strategies in the Credit Bond Market - The report discusses various investment strategies, including duration management, credit selection, leverage operations, and tactical trading, which are crucial for navigating the current low spread environment [5][7]

Group 1: Sports Industry Development - The State Council issued 20 measures to unleash the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development of the sports industry, aiming for a total scale exceeding 70 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - The measures include expanding the supply of sports products, stimulating consumer demand, and strengthening sports business entities, with specific plans for outdoor sports and ice and snow economy [1] - The sports consumption market in China has been rapidly growing, with grassroots events and emerging sports driving new consumption demands, contributing to rural revitalization and regional development [2] Group 2: Social Security Fund and Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax exemptions for state-owned equity and cash income transferred to the social security fund, effective from April 1, 2024 [3] - This policy aims to enhance pension reserves and boost social consumption confidence while optimizing the allocation of state capital [4] Group 3: Real Estate Market in Shenzhen - Shenzhen has relaxed housing purchase restrictions in eight districts, allowing eligible residents to buy an unlimited number of properties, while non-residents can purchase up to two [5][6] - The adjustment of personal housing loan policies is expected to stimulate the real estate market, especially during the traditional peak season [6] Group 4: Banking Sector Performance - Agricultural Bank of China’s market capitalization surpassed that of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, reaching 2.55 trillion yuan, driven by a 47% increase in stock price this year [8][9] - The bank's strong performance is attributed to stable dividends and being the only major bank to report positive net profit growth in the first half of the year [9] Group 5: U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below expectations [10][12] - This trend indicates a weakening labor market, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12] Group 6: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [13] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves while reducing dollar holdings, supporting long-term demand for gold [13] Group 7: IPO Developments in Robotics - Yushutech plans to submit its IPO application between October and December, with a market valuation estimated between 50 billion to 100 billion yuan [14] - The company has completed 10 rounds of financing, indicating strong investor interest in the robotics sector, which is seen as a hot investment area despite challenges in commercialization and technology [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All stock indices fluctuated and rose today, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices having relatively large increases. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2348.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 233.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The anti - involution related sectors led the gains, indicating an increase in the market's expectation for anti - involution policies. The short - term technical adjustment of stock indices was caused by the rising profit - taking demand of profitable funds, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic of stock indices remained strong. In the medium to long term, the expectation of favorable policies and the loose capital situation provided strong support for stock indices. On the policy front, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank jointly promoted the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies today, and the expectation of policy support for the economy in the future was relatively clear. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies jointly promoted the macro - economic recovery from both supply and demand sides. In terms of capital, the liquidity was relatively loose. Against the background of the "asset shortage", the attractiveness of equity assets was strong, and incremental funds continued to flow in, which would drive the repair of stock valuations. In general, stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the profit - taking situation of previously profitable funds and the fermentation of favorable policy expectations. Currently, the implied volatility of options continues to rise. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 5, 2025, the 50ETF rose 1.25% to close at 3.072; the SSE 300ETF rose 2.20% to close at 4.554; the SZSE 300ETF rose 2.24% to close at 4.696; the CSI 300 index rose 2.18% to close at 4460.32; the CSI 1000 index rose 2.90% to close at 7245.67; the SSE 500ETF rose 3.42% to close at 7.011; the SZSE 500ETF rose 3.32% to close at 2.800; the GEM ETF rose 7.02% to close at 2.944; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 4.15% to close at 3.360; the SSE 50 index rose 1.09% to close at 2942.22; the STAR 50ETF rose 3.43% to close at 1.33; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 3.51% to close at 1.30 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 79.88 (previous day: 94.23), and the position PCR was 85.34 (previous day: 78.53) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in September 2025 was 19.37%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 15.40% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, SZSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms of the underlying assets of each option [9][21][34].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a general trend of rising yields, while the liquidity remains ample due to central bank operations [1][5][6] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down by 0.89% to 116.350, and the 10-year contract down by 0.30% to 107.950 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds have generally increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.15 basis points to 1.775% [2] International Market Trends - In North America, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 5.6 basis points to 4.1607% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese bond yield fell by 2.5 basis points to 1.58% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield dropped by 5 basis points to 3.489% [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Export-Import Bank's 1-year fixed-rate bond had a winning bid rate of 1.2905%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 4.04 [4] - The Ministry of Finance's 1-year and 30-year government bonds had weighted average winning yields of 1.3485% and 2.1139%, respectively [4] Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,883 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 5,946 billion yuan for the day [5] - The central bank is expected to continue providing liquidity support in line with the bond issuance schedule [6] Institutional Insights - According to CITIC Securities, there is an anticipated issuance of approximately 4 trillion yuan in interest rate bonds, which is lower than the previous year's figure [6] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that while there is still demand for credit bonds, the pressure on the liability side may limit support for credit bonds in the short term [6] - Guosheng Securities predicts a gradual recovery in the bond market, with expectations of reduced pressure from the stock market on bonds [6]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a volatile upward trend in August, with the yield curve steepening further. The market's high expectations for "anti-involution" policies were adjusted after the Politburo meeting at the end of July, combined with a weak fundamental backdrop [1][11] - In August, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.84%, an increase of 13.4 basis points from the end of July. The yields for 10-year policy bank bonds and other government-related bonds also saw similar increases [11][12] Group 2 - The significant rise in the stock market over the past two months has exerted pressure on the bond market, but this effect is expected to weaken in September. The continuous decrease in non-bank positions and the increase in allocation by institutional investors will gradually reduce the stock market's suppression of the bond market [2][15] - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, remaining below the threshold, indicating a weak economic environment. The relative value of bonds has improved significantly from a fundamental perspective, suggesting that if the stock market continues to rise, the adjustment space for current interest rates is limited [2][15] Group 3 - Industrial product prices have been declining, and market expectations for "anti-involution" policies are returning to fundamentals, which may ease pressure on the bond market. The South China Industrial Products Index fell from a high of 3824 points on July 25 to 3602 points by September 3, reflecting a decrease in aggressive buying sentiment [3][19] - The bond market may revert to fundamental pricing as the weak recovery in the economy continues. The manufacturing PMI remains below the threshold, and various investment growth rates have significantly declined, indicating a weak demand environment [4][20] Group 4 - The liquidity in the market is expected to remain loose, with a decrease in fiscal deposits likely to supplement market liquidity. As of August 31, the net financing progress for government bonds was 69.4%, and for local bonds, it was 74.7%. If no new fiscal budget is introduced, the subsequent bond supply will decrease year-on-year [5][26] - The central bank has increased its support for the liquidity environment since 2025, which is expected to limit liquidity shocks at the end of the quarter. The average R007 rate at the end of June only increased by 2 basis points compared to May, indicating a stable liquidity environment [5][26] Group 5 - The bond market's earlier excessive gains have been gradually digested, and the yield curve is expected to normalize. The significant widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year bonds has improved the relative value of long-term bonds [6][39] - The bond market is anticipated to gradually recover in September, with a recommendation for a barbell strategy to increase allocations. The adjustment limits for 10-year and 30-year government bonds are projected to be around 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively [7][43]

Group 1 - The banking sector showed resilience with a 0.75% increase in the banking index on September 4, 2023, led by Agricultural Bank of China, which surged 5.17% to reach a market capitalization of 2.55 trillion RMB, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [1] - Postal Savings Bank also saw a rise of over 2.9%, with its market value exceeding 2 trillion RMB, marking a historical high [1] - Analysts suggest that the rise in bank stocks is supported by their stable high dividend yields, with banks transitioning from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" assets, indicating robust asset quality and stable performance [1] Group 2 - Despite significant gains in the banking sector this year, with Agricultural Bank leading at a 47.15% increase, analysts believe that the current valuation is at historical lows, approximately 0.6 times PB, with a dividend yield near 4%, providing a safety margin for investors [2] - The outlook for 2025 suggests a potential end to the down cycle for bank earnings, with expectations of improved fundamentals next year, as indicated by recent mid-year reports showing a rebound in revenue and profit growth [2] - The high dividend characteristics of the banking sector are expected to attract investors during a period of market stagnation, indicating potential for a rotational rebound in stock prices [2]