Group 1 - The overall economic sentiment is mixed, with some indicators showing recovery while others indicate a decline [1][2][11] - Public transportation usage, including subway and domestic flights, has seen a slight increase, with subway ridership averaging 80.98 million daily in early May, up 2.5% year-on-year [1][5] - Land premium rates have rebounded, reaching 12.37% in early May compared to 9.63% in April [1][5] Group 2 - U.S. imports have shown a significant decline, with a 20.1% decrease in import value in the week of May 1, particularly from China, which saw a 27.9% drop [2][12] - Domestic prices for bulk commodities are weak, with prices for coal, steel, and cement continuing to fall [2][22] - The issuance of new special bonds has exceeded 1 trillion, indicating a significant increase in local government financing plans [2][28] Group 3 - Interest rates have decreased following recent monetary policy adjustments, with DR001 at 1.4908% as of May 9, down 29.45 basis points from April 30 [3][31] - The bond market is experiencing a net issuance of government bonds, with a notable amount of special bonds planned for the second quarter [28][29] Group 4 - Commodity prices are showing divergent trends, with international prices for oil, gold, and copper rising, while domestic prices for coal and construction materials are declining [22][27] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has decreased by 8.6%, indicating a weakening in shipping rates [24][27]

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/12 注：沪深300、上证50、中证500的10年利率用10年期AAA企业债利率，标普500用美国10年期国债利率，德国DAX用德国10年期国债利率 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 109.060 106.095 109.215 106.435 涨跌（%） 0.19% 0.17% 0.18% 0.16% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.5221% 1.5805% 1.6960% 日度变化(BP) -13.00 -7.00 -2.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任 ...

四是，税期扰动相对有限。由于五一假期，5月纳税申报截止日推迟至22日，23、26日走款，16日起借 入7天资金才可跨税期，税期对下周资金面的扰动有限。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京5月12日电（刘润榕）人民银行12日开展430亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%；鉴 于当日无逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放430亿元。 上周（5月6-11日）央行公开市场实现净回笼7817亿元，资金面季节性转松，叠加降准降息落地，资金 利率明显下行。截至5月9日收盘，隔夜利率下探至1.50%一线，R001加权平均利率降至1.52%，DR001 加权平均利率报1.49%。R007加权平均利率、DR007加权平均利率同样降至1.60%水平以下，分别报 1.58%、1.54%。 在华西证券首席经济学家刘郁看来，两大因素共同推动资金利率下行。其一，季节性因素，月初资金利 率往往呈季节性下行态势。一般而言，由于上月末财政资金支出的支撑以及月初银行融出意愿回升，月 初资金面通常转松。 其二，货币政策发力，降准降息等一揽子宽货币政策落地，推动资金利率中枢下移。5月7日， 中国人 民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会三部门联 ...

固收周度点评 20250511 货币政策的增量信号 2025 年 05 月 11 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com 5/8，债市全线走强，曲线牛陡。早盘降息落地，带动资金利率显著下行， 提振债市做多热情。日内股市走强对债市形成一定压制，涨幅一度收窄，但资金 利率的破位下行对债牛形成较强支撑。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别 变动-3.3、-1.5、-0.9、-1BP 至 1.41%、1.5%、1.63%、1.84%。 5/9，债市未能延续昨日涨势。资金仍延续平稳宽松态势，但或受止盈情绪 影响，叠加午后权益市场走强、关税博弈下 4 月出口增速环比回落但仍显韧性， 债市演绎调整行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 0.4、-0.5、 0.2、0.5BP 至 1.42%、1.5%、1.64%、1.84%。 ➢ "双降"落地，曲线走陡 本周（5/6-5/9）债市震荡走强。5/7"双降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The central bank's attitude has eased, with increased reverse repurchase and MLF投放, and falling interest rates. The downward space for funds is greater than the upward space. The central bank's response to the tariff shock has been calm, and the decline in interest rates has been limited. The weakening fundamentals may drive interest rates down further. There are two possible "broad money" models, and the second model is more likely, with the negative impact of monetary factors on the bond market decreasing [5][6][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4 - Month Review: Lowered Fund Center, but Weak Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts - **Central Bank's Attitude**: The central bank's attitude in April was "stable with a slight easing." Net 7 - day reverse repurchase was 320.8 billion yuan, and 1 - year MLF had a net injection of 50 billion yuan, with a total open - market operation injection of 820.8 billion yuan. However, the net withdrawal of outright reverse repurchase was 50 billion yuan. The central bank's current attitude towards the funds remains stable, but has eased compared to the beginning of the year [2][12]. - **Fund Price**: The central level of fund interest rates for all terms decreased in April compared to March. DR001 and DR007 decreased by 10bp and 15bp to 1.67% and 1.73% respectively; R001 and R007 decreased by 15bp and 19bp to 1.71% and 1.77% respectively. The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate narrowed to 23bp [3][13]. - **Certificate of Deposit**: In April, the issuance volume and price of certificates of deposit decreased. The total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit by state - owned and joint - stock banks dropped from 2.7 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan. The weighted average issuance rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 23bp and 22bp respectively, and the yields to maturity of 3M, 6M, and 1Y certificates of deposit decreased by 21bp, 21bp, and 19bp respectively [3][14]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The market has not restarted "interest rate cut trading." From the perspectives of IRS:FR007 and FR007 spread, floating - rate and fixed - rate bond YTM spread, and the monetary tightness and looseness expectation index, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the bond market in April was volatile, mainly affected by changing tariff policies and the "determination" of domestic monetary policy [4][15]. 5 - Month Outlook: External and Internal Pressures Cause Disturbances, and There May Be Room for Funds to Go Down - **Central Bank's Attitude and Interest Rate Space**: Compared with the "abnormally high" fund - policy spread in Q1, the central bank's attitude has eased, with increased reverse repurchase and MLF投放, and falling interest rates for two consecutive months. The downward space for funds is greater than the upward space [5][25]. - **Tariff Impact**: The central bank has been "calm" in the face of the tariff shock. The decline in interest rates since the trade friction has been limited compared to historical shock events. From March to April, the spread between DR007 and the policy rate only narrowed by 39bp [5][25][26]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals do not support a trend of rising fund prices. The PMI and building materials composite index have declined, and the negative impact of trade friction on the economy has been reflected in multiple dimensions. If the fundamentals weaken, it may drive interest rates down further [5][29]. - **Government Bond Financing**: In May, the net financing scale of government bonds is expected to increase significantly compared to April. The estimated net financing scale of national bonds is about 970 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is about 450.3 billion yuan, with a total of about 1.4 trillion yuan [32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: The liquidity gap in May may narrow slightly compared to April, mainly due to the lower maturity of outright reverse repurchase. However, attention should be paid to the disturbance of government bond issuance [33][34]. - **Broad Money Path**: There are two possible "broad money" models for the central bank. The second model (first compressing the spread and then cutting the policy rate) shows more signs of implementation, and the negative impact of monetary factors on the bond market is decreasing [6][37].

降准降息落地前，资金利率有望继续向政策利率靠拢 ——2025 年 5 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3降准降息落地前，资金利率有望继续向政策利率靠拢 ——2025 年 5 月流动性展望 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 3 月超储率环比下降 0.2pct 至 1.0%。3 月央行对其他存款性公司债权下降 1.36 万亿，降 ...

博弈资金进一步转松？ 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 刚性的资金、盘整的债市 利率专题 4 月以来，资金面整体呈现"供需结构改善、价格相对稳定"的状态，在市 场对于资金面季节性转松的期待中，公开市场投放确实出现了改善，但资金价格 仍在政策利率上方窄幅震荡。 而受制于较为刚性的资金价格，短端下行空间已相对有限，长端的约束在加 大，当前 10 年-1 年国债利差仍在 2024 年以来的较低分位，曲线平坦化已进入 相对极致的状态，长端继续下探的动力也相对不足。 当前随着债市步入横盘震荡期，交易难度在增加，对此，如何看待？ ➢ 货币政策取向再理解 由于当前实体消费和投资意愿待进一步提振，仅货币政策的扩张在提振经济 上或难以发挥出最大功效，若增量资金不断涌入债市、资金利率持续处于偏低水 平，也将增加利率风险。此外，当前外部环境复杂多变，货币政策保持定力，或 也旨在为后续应对留足空间。而运行于政策利率上方、呈现窄幅震荡的资金利率 便是多重考量下的均衡之举，与货币政策的支持性立场不矛盾，具体而言： （1）近年来，我国货币信贷增长已逐渐由供给约束转为需求约束，金融机 构此前在"规模情结"的驱使下，信贷投放力度较大，超出 ...

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The key to economic recovery lies in the direction of the cash - flow statement, not "policy exceeding expectations". The economy may continue to recover even without super - expected policies, and subsequent economic conditions may remain favorable [2][4] - The pre - condition for interest rate cuts is an economic downturn, which may not be met currently. If conditions are triggered, the central bank is more likely to cut interest rates by 10BP [6] - There is an upward risk for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. The report is optimistic about the convertible bond market in 2025, favoring domestic demand in the second and third quarters and external demand in the fourth quarter [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Recovery and Policy Impact - Economic recovery does not rely on "policy exceeding expectations". For example, from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, there were no super - expected policies, but the economy exceeded market expectations. Also, past policy measures like interest rate cuts and special bond issuances did not always lead to positive market responses [2][3] - The key to economic recovery is the direction of the cash - flow statement. Fiscal policy (accelerating bond issuance and use), debt resolution methods (expanding cash - flow statements after September 2024), and monetary policy (moderately rising social financing stock growth) all contribute to economic recovery. Incremental policies in finance, currency, and real estate are expected to further expand the cash - flow statement [4] - Although exports may decline due to US tariffs, the decline may be better than expected. After Q4 2024, with the cash - flow statement turning upward and policy support, the economy may maintain a good level [5] Interest Rate Cut Conditions - "Timely" and "opportunistic" for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are just different in applicable levels. The condition for "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the Politburo meeting may be an obvious downward economic trend. As the economy has not shown a significant downward trend in the past 5 months, the measure has not been implemented. If the economy stabilizes and recovers in Q2 and Q3 2025, the condition for interest rate cuts may not be triggered. If triggered, the central bank may cut interest rates by 10BP [6] Bond Yield and Convertible Bond Market - The current pricing of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield implies a significant decline in DR007 or OMO interest rate cuts. If the capital interest rate does not decline significantly from late April to May, there is an upward risk for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield. The triggers for bond yield increases may include capital, economic, and stock market factors [6][7] - The report is optimistic about the convertible bond market in 2025. If the market corrects after the April 2025 Politburo meeting, it may present an opportunity similar to that in January 2025. It favors domestic demand in the second and third quarters and external demand in the fourth quarter, with possible reasons including China's industrial chain trends, China - EU negotiation progress, and China's substitution of US exports [7]