Economic Confidence Index - The economic confidence index for June is reported at 50.50, indicating a return above the neutral line of 50 [1][4][27] Economic Predictions for May - The average prediction for the CPI year-on-year growth in May is -0.13%, while the PPI is predicted to be -3.06% [2][10] - The predicted year-on-year growth for social retail sales in May is 4.85%, down from 5.1% in April [12] - The predicted year-on-year growth for industrial added value in May is 5.85%, lower than the previous month's 6.1% [13] - The predicted year-on-year growth for fixed asset investment in May is 3.96%, slightly lower than the previous month's 4% [14] - The predicted year-on-year growth for real estate development investment in May is -10.21% [16] - The predicted trade surplus for May is $971.38 billion, with exports expected to grow by 4.97% and imports declining by -0.61% [17] Monetary Policy and Financial Data - Economists expect the monetary policy to remain accommodative, with little change anticipated in reserve requirements and interest rates in June [21] - The average prediction for new loans in May is 9704.55 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 2800 billion yuan [18] - The predicted total social financing for May is 2.34 trillion yuan, higher than the previous month's 1.16 trillion yuan [19] - The predicted M2 year-on-year growth for May is 8.08%, up from 8% in April [20] Exchange Rate and Foreign Reserves - The predicted exchange rate for the RMB against the USD at the end of June is 7.17, with an expected average of 7.13 by the end of the year [22] - The forecast for foreign exchange reserves at the end of May is $32,911.89 billion, with an expected increase to $32,917 billion by the end of the month [23] Policy Outlook - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain a steady and proactive approach, focusing on structural tools to support key sectors like AI and green technology [24][26] - The government is anticipated to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and introduce new measures to stimulate consumption and investment [29][31]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, with a recent increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% and a temporary suspension of a previous court ruling against these tariffs, leading to increased uncertainty in trade negotiations [1][16] - In the A-share market, major indices rebounded significantly in May, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.32% and 2.94% respectively, driven by a series of stabilizing measures [1][18] - The report notes that the central bank injected 599.8 billion yuan into the market in May, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance amid concerns over liquidity due to accelerated government bond issuance [1][18] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market is experiencing a volatile environment, with a balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the potential for trading opportunities arising from adjustments in interest rates [3] - Economic data indicates a mismatch in expectations, particularly with external demand showing resilience but not fully compensating for insufficient domestic demand recovery [3] - The central bank's recent actions, including rate cuts, suggest limited room for further easing in the short term, with market dynamics heavily influenced by the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations and economic fundamentals [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - EHang Intelligent (EH) - EHang reported a revenue of 26.1 million yuan in Q1 2025, down from 61.7 million yuan in the same period last year, with a gross margin of 62.4% [8][21] - The company has received operational certification for its EH216-S model, allowing it to expand its commercial operations gradually, including transitioning from isolated airspace to integrated airspace [8][21] - EHang plans to double its production capacity at its Yunfu facility to 1,000 units by the end of 2025, supported by strategic partnerships for a new eVTOL production base [8][22] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Bluko Group - Bluko Group, a leading domestic model toy company, achieved a GMV of 1.8 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of over 170% [4][24] - The company is recognized for its high cost-performance ratio and strong IP recognition, with a projected sales volume of 135 million units for its building block toys in 2024 [6][25] - Bluko's integrated design, production, and R&D system, along with its collaboration with leading third-party manufacturers, has resulted in a gross margin of 52.6% and a high precision in mold production [6][25] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD) - Pinduoduo reported a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue to 95.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, but its adjusted net profit decreased by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan [9][12] - The company faces intense competition and has increased investments, which may pressure profit margins, necessitating further subsidies to maintain price advantages [9][12] - Despite short-term challenges, Pinduoduo is expected to maintain long-term competitiveness, particularly with its TEMU platform's growth potential in the global e-commerce market [9][12]

Domestic Policy News - The General Secretary emphasized accelerating the construction of an education powerhouse, highlighting the importance of education for national strength and rejuvenation [9][10] - Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN-China-GCC summit, focusing on regional economic cooperation amidst global challenges [11][12] - The People's Bank of China introduced a new management method for cybersecurity incidents in its business areas [20] Equity Market Analysis - In May, the A-share market rebounded significantly, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.32% and 2.94% respectively, driven by a series of stabilizing measures [21][22] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.6% in May, reflecting positive market sentiment [21] - Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of 41.992 billion yuan in May, indicating strong investor interest [21] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank net injected 599.8 billion yuan in May, responding to liquidity pressures from accelerated government bond issuance [46][47] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.68%, reflecting stable market conditions despite external uncertainties [46] Commodity Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metals market showed signs of recovery, while crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows [23] - Agricultural products, particularly pork, continued to experience weak fluctuations, indicating ongoing market challenges [23] Policy Impact Analysis - The adjustment of the CSI 300 index sample reflects a shift towards emerging sectors, enhancing market representation [22] - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a need for further counter-cyclical policy measures to support economic stability [23][24]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月27日 杭州银行（600926.SH） 转债触发强赎，高成长优质行将迎价值重估 评论：夯实资本，优质高成长银行 截止 2025 年一季度末，公司核心一级资本充足率 9.01%，杭银转债未转股余额为 106.37 亿元。据此测算 未转股余额完成转股后可提振核心一级资本充足率 0.83 个百分点，资本进一步夯实，规模高增有望延续。 公司信贷延续高成长，资产质量优质，拨备覆盖率排在上市银行首位。2025 年一季度营收同比增长 2.22%，较 2024 年增速下降了 7.4 个百分点；实现归母净利润同比增长 17.3%，较 2024 年增速下降了 0.8 个百分点。营收 增速下降主要受其他非息收入同比下降拖累，一季度净利息收入同比增长了 6.8%。信贷延续了高增态势，期末 总资产 2.22 万亿元，贷款总额 1.00 万亿元，存款总额为 1.35 万亿元，较年初分别增长 5.2、6.2%和 6.0%。其 中，对公贷款（不含贴现）较年初增长了 11.7%，大零售贷款较年初下降了 1.3%，期末零售贷款占贷款总额的 30.3%。 期末不良率 0.76%，与年初持平，处在上市银行前列；关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

【市场表现】 昨日期债延续窄幅震荡。短期看，一方面期债下跌的风险有限，当前仍处在逆周期政策周期中，资金面 持续收紧的可能性小，MLF增量续作也体现了央行对资金面的呵护，LPR与存款利率双调降，中期广谱 利率处于下行周期中；另一方面在关税压力缓释的背景下，当下央行进一步引导资金利率下行的概率也 不高，还需要观察政策后效和出口动向，目前整体或以稳为主，从期限利差的角度来看长债目前吸引力 也相对有限。短期信息空窗期，整体债市或进入震荡阶段，等待基本面指引。目前预计，短期10年期国 债利率可能在1.65%-1.7%区间波动，30年国债利率可能在1.85%-1.95%区间波动。单边策略上建议观望 为主，关注高频经济数据和资金面动态。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 国债期货收盘涨跌不一，30年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations and their implications for the global economy, particularly focusing on the potential for economic recovery and investment opportunities in various sectors. Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, alleviating extreme scenarios in bilateral trade and leading to a short-term boost in exports [1][8][9] - The effective tariff rate for the US has decreased from 23% to 13%, and for China, it has dropped to 31.8%, which is expected to lower recession risks in the US economy [8][9] - High-frequency shipping data indicates a recovery trend, suggesting a potential surge in exports from China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on the US market [20][21] Group 2: Economic Growth Drivers - The economic growth in early 2025 has been primarily driven by exports and investments in new sectors, with Q1 export delivery value increasing by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Investment in equipment and appliances saw quarterly growth rates of 19.0% and 19.3%, respectively, contributing to economic stability [1] - Despite the positive export outlook, challenges remain in real estate, consumer spending, local investment, and price stability, which need to be addressed for sustained growth [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following the trade talks, global stock markets exhibited a "risk-on" sentiment, with the Nasdaq leading asset classes, and the VIX index falling below 20 [4][5] - A-shares shifted focus to fundamental recovery expectations, policy observation, and export logic, with the overall market showing resilience after previous tariff-related declines [7] - The performance of various sectors varied, with over 60% of industries recording positive returns, particularly in beauty care, non-banking financials, and automotive sectors [7] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the need for adjustments in monetary policy frameworks to address higher inflation volatility and supply shocks, as indicated by recent comments from the Federal Reserve [10][11] - The anticipated changes in the Fed's inflation targeting strategy may influence future economic conditions and investment strategies [11] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - Industries with high export dependence on the US, such as electronics and automotive parts, are expected to benefit from the short-term "export rush" following tariff reductions [21] - The article notes that industrial product prices are stabilizing, while food prices are experiencing mixed trends, indicating a complex inflationary environment [22] Group 6: Infrastructure and Investment Trends - The government is increasing support for urban renewal projects, which may enhance infrastructure investment and stimulate economic activity [23][24] - Recent data shows improvements in funding availability for construction projects, particularly in non-residential sectors, indicating a positive trend for infrastructure development [18]

Market Overview - During the week of May 5 to May 9, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.92%, 2.00%, and 3.27% respectively. The defense and military industry led the gains with an increase of 6.33% [6] - The current PE (TTM) for CSI 300 is 12.44 times, with a risk premium of 6.40%, which is above one standard deviation. The ChiNext Index has a PE (TTM) of 30.25, below one negative standard deviation [6] Economic Policies - On May 7, the State Council held a press conference announcing a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates. Additionally, a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension relending" program was established [6] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for moderately loose monetary policy in its first-quarter monetary policy report, highlighting that boosting consumption is key to expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [6] Trade Performance - In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. In April alone, the trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [6] - Exports in April amounted to 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, while imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8% [6] Market Sentiment - The recent financial policies have effectively boosted market confidence, with market indices recovering from the impacts of tariff shocks. However, the high tariff barriers may gradually affect the real economy, and the latest CPI and PPI data indicate ongoing risks of endogenous deflation [6] - The report anticipates that the A-share market will maintain wide fluctuations with a focus on structural trends, particularly favoring sectors like technology and military in the medium term [6] Valuation Analysis - In terms of valuation, sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, and forestry are at historical low PE levels, while real estate, computers, and steel are at historical high PE levels. For PB valuation, agriculture, construction materials, and oil and gas are at historical lows [28][30] - The report includes detailed tables showing the current PE and PB valuations of various sectors, indicating their positions within the historical percentiles over the past decade [29][30]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 8 日 A 股 2024 年年报及 2025 年 一季报分析 科技制造仍是关注重点 全 A 非金融景气修复有亮点，但过程仍较为坎坷。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 ◼ 2024 年年报业绩未能改善，2025 年一季报业绩明显改善，两期营收改善 偏慢。全部 A 股/非金融 2024 年报累计归母净利润（下或简称业绩/净利 润）同比增速分别为-2.3%/ -12.9%，较 2024Q3（-0.5%/ -7.2%）下降-1.8/- 5.7Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 2025Q1 累计业绩同比增速分别为 3.6%/4.2%， 较 2024 年年报（-2.3%/-12.9%）大幅提升 5.8/17.1Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 20 ...