Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

周度报告-黄金 中东局势升温，避险情绪利多金价 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 3.4%至 5278 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率降至 3.94%， 通胀预期 2.24%，实际利率降至 1.7%，美元指数跌 0.19%至 97.6，标 普 500 指数跌 0.44%，离岸人民币持续升值，内盘折价扩大。 贵 金 节后贵金属延续上涨趋势，地缘政治风险引发的避险情绪对贵金 属构成支撑，白银 2 月合约度过交割危机，但市场仍然担心 3 月 是否会再度逼仓，国内交易所白银库存通胀处于低位尚未企稳回 升。美联储多位官员发表讲话，短期降息意愿较低，基本面维度 缺乏利多，短期市场聚焦地缘政治风险。 属 美伊谈判没有实质性进展，美国和以色列 2 月 28 日正式对伊朗发 起军事打击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊以及革命卫队多位高级将领 阵亡，避险情绪迅速升温施压风险资产，比特币一度跌超 3%， 哈梅内伊阵亡消息传出后，表明美国占据优势，市场风险偏好回 升，比特币转涨，对于贵金属来说，此前的偏强走势反映了一部 分对中东地区 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 中东风险升温，贵金属、战略金属价值再重估 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周随中东局势骤然恶化，避险情绪回升，周内金价震荡上行突破 5200 美元/盎司。2 月下旬， 以色列对德黑兰的预防性打击打破了市场的脆弱平衡。尽管美伊在日内瓦的核谈判据称有所进 展，但实际军事行动的升级直接导致了月末的"避险潮"。当前三重维度下，重视贵金属板块的 弹性。国内刺激政策，海外中东风险，推涨工业金属。商品端，短期中东风险升温，催化铜铝 涨价，中长期经济底部与逆全球化促进供需结构优化，弹性可期。权益端，重视板块节后机会。 碳酸锂供给扰动也现，重视权益第二轮行情。全面重视战略金属配置价值。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 3 月 1 日 3 月金股组合 中银证券研究部 2026 年 3 月金股 3 月金股组合 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 策略观点：A 股短期波动中期聚焦国内主线，资源品行情正当时。美以 军事打击伊朗对于全球市场及资产价格的影响取决于行动的目标及持续 性。金价上行有望得到进一步支撑。无论是当下的中东局势还是特朗普 关税政策的反复都为短期市场增加了较高的不确定性因素。而这种不确 定性下的避险情绪将为短期贵金属价格形成有力支撑。目前来看，对于 A 股的影响更多集中在风险偏好层面，中期来看，A 股市场将会回归国内 基本面及政策预期。国内两会即将开幕，A 股短期冲击幅度或小于海外， 节后复工情况、两会前后宏观政策的释放是国内投资者关 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, with specific recommendations for various companies in the precious and base metals sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The military conflict between the US and Iran has heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets. The report anticipates a significant rise in gold prices driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][4]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to the ongoing geopolitical situation and domestic recovery post-holiday. The report highlights a steady recovery in production and demand for aluminum and copper, while also noting potential supply constraints for lithium and cobalt [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index increased by 9.77% during the reporting period, indicating strong performance in the nonferrous metals sector [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted for their strong earnings forecasts and favorable valuations [2][4]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are projected to stabilize post-holiday, with expected trading ranges between 22,800 and 24,000 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight decrease in production due to the holiday but anticipates a recovery as downstream processing resumes [29][30]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 12,800 and 13,500 USD/ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and domestic inventory levels. The report indicates a cautious market sentiment with weak demand impacting prices [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices are forecasted to rise significantly due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions. The report emphasizes the role of central bank purchases in supporting gold prices [2][4]. - Silver's industrial demand may face challenges due to the impact of cheaper materials in photovoltaic applications, potentially affecting its price trajectory [2][4]. 4. Energy Metals - The report highlights supply constraints for lithium and cobalt, with Zimbabwe's policy changes affecting lithium prices and ongoing delays in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise due to tightening supply from Indonesia, with the report noting a significant reduction in export quotas [2][4]. 5. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, China Gold International, and Western Mining, based on their strong earnings potential and market positioning [2][4].

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铂、钯：避险情绪发酵，预计波动率提升，单边铂偏强 强弱分析：铂金偏强、钯金中性 价格区间：广铂主力560-700元/克、广钯主力410-510 元/克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 铂钯本周表现较为强势或为此前在2月26日晨报种提及的市场受消息面牵动情绪偏乐观，铂金领涨，钯金跟随。本周伦敦现货铂金周涨幅为9.4%，广铂周涨幅 13.03%；伦敦现货钯金周涨幅为0.56%，广钯周涨幅6.02%。具体交易的消息为2月25日津巴布韦颁布限制原矿及锂精矿出口公告，由于津巴布韦是世界第三 大铂族金属资源国，引发了市场上对于铂族金属供应的担忧。但实际津巴布韦的PGM ...

有色金属周报 20260301 美伊军事冲突开启，关键战略资源+贵金属价值提升 glmszqdatemark 贵金属：美伊交火，刺激避险情绪驱动贵金属价格有望大涨，中长期来继续看央行购金+ 美元信用弱化主线，继续坚定看好金价上行。2 月 28 日美国和以色列正式对伊朗开火，带 动避险情绪升温，利好金价上行；中长期央行购金+美元信用弱化仍为主线，看好金银价格 中枢上移。白银工业需求可能继续受到光伏浆料贱金属化影响，这轮周期使得光伏需求承 压，银浆成本占比飙升，未来贱金属化成趋势。重点推荐：紫金黄金国际、中国黄金国际、 西部黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、潼关黄金、万国黄金集团，建议 关注灵宝黄金、大唐黄金和集海资源等，白银标的推荐兴业银锡、盛达资源。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 202 ...

朋友们，昨晚贵金属市场又疯了。 所以问题来了：现在还能追吗？ 我的判断很明确：短期别追高，长期别下车。 现货白银一度暴涨超6%，突破94美元/盎司，创下近两个月新高；现货黄金站上5280美元，逼近历史高 点。黄金2月累计上涨7.6%，连续第七个月收红；白银更猛，2月累涨近10%。 为什么涨？这次是三股力量同时发力。 第一股力量：地缘风险又回来了。 美军"福特"号航母抵达以色列水域，美国在中东部署的航母增至两 艘。美国驻以色列大使馆批准非紧急人员撤离。美伊谈判有进展但没定论，市场始终悬着一颗心。只要 霍尔木兹海峡这个"世界油阀"的航运安全受威胁，避险情绪就不会散。 第二股力量：资金在轮动。 美股那边，英伟达财报后连跌两天，AI硬件股集体回调。资金从涨太多的 科技股里撤出来，往贵金属里挪一挪。加上美债收益率跌破4%，持有黄金的机会成本下降，更刺激了 避险需求。 第三股力量：长期逻辑没变。 全球央行还在买金，中国央行连续15个月增持。美元信用弱化的叙事还 在继续。白银更特殊——连续五年供不应求，光伏、AI、新能源汽车的工业需求爆发，让它的价格弹 性远超黄金。 但这次有个细节值得注意：国内品牌金店开始酝酿新一轮提价。 ...

27日，中东地缘紧张局势推动市场避险情绪升温，加之美元指数下跌，国际金价上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期价收于每盎司5247.90 美元，涨幅为1.03%。 27日，美军"福特"号航母抵达以色列水域，美在中东部署的航母增至两艘。美国对伊朗发出军事打击威胁并加紧在海湾地区进行军事部署，伊朗则表示将 予以报复。 北京师范大学教授经济学专家万喆表示，二月中旬以来，布伦特原油快速上涨，核心驱动因素是中东地缘冲突预期带来的风险溢价，直接导火索是美伊对 峙升级。美国在中东地区完成了双航母部署，美伊谈判虽然进行，但是市场认为军事冲突的概率仍然很高，担忧情绪在快速升温。 油价的核心定价锚是霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全，它承担着全球大概20%的原油海运贸易，哪怕只是传出封锁的风声，都会推高航运保费，引发贸易商抢货 等行为，不需要实际的供应中断，就会推高油价。 万喆谈到，从机构测算来看，当前油价已经计入了较高的地缘风险溢价，而当前全球原油市场的基本面是供应过剩的，也就是说本轮油价上涨完全脱离了 供需的基本面，和历史上战前预期发酵、推高油价的模式高度一致。如果局势发生缓和，价格也有可能会快速回调。 来源：央视新闻 白银方面 ...

Market Overview - The US January PPI reignited inflation concerns, leading to a decline in US stocks, with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Dow Jones dropping over 1% [3] - Nvidia shares fell over 4% post-earnings, while Netflix surged nearly 14% [3] - Bitcoin dropped 3% for the fifth consecutive month, and Ethereum fell over 5% [3] - Gold prices rose 1.8%, nearing $5,300, marking the seventh consecutive month of gains [3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.88%, continuing a two-month upward trend [3] Key Developments in China - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China discussed the "14th Five-Year Plan" and government work report, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy [4][11] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is planning key measures for high-quality development in the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][12] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the forward foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0%, effective March 2 [12] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit growth of 108.81% by 2025, driven by demand for high-speed optical modules [12] - Cambrian Technology achieved its first annual profit, projecting a net profit of 2.06 billion yuan in 2025, with revenue surging 4.5 times [13] - Moore Threads anticipates a revenue increase of 243.37% in 2025, with flagship GPU production narrowing losses by 36.7% [13] - Domestic GPU production is accelerating, with Muxi Co. projecting a 121% revenue increase in 2025 and a 44% reduction in losses [14] Key Developments Overseas - The US January core PPI saw its fastest growth in a year, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [15] - OpenAI completed a $110 billion financing round, achieving a valuation of $730 billion, with Amazon investing $50 billion [6][18] - Meta has shifted from relying solely on Nvidia to renting Google TPU for AI training, indicating a diversification in supplier strategy [18] - SpaceX is considering filing for an IPO as early as March, aiming for a June listing with a target valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion [18] - The collapse of UK private credit giant MFS has raised concerns about the fragility of private credit markets, with major banks exposed to significant risks [9][20]