据最新市场数据，过去30天内，机构投资者持有的比特币储备增持了价值超过5亿美元的比特币。然而，2025年11月18日早间，比特币价格跌至90700美元， 这一下跌揭示了供给与需求之间的多空博弈。 1. 机构增持：慢变量与长期信号 方式与目的： 机构的买入通常通过交易所交易基金（ETF）、大宗交易或算法定投完成，这是一个持续、分散的过程，不会在瞬间将价格暴力拉高。机构的投资视角通常 是中长期的，他们更看重比特币的长期价值存储（数字黄金）属性，而非短期波动。当前的下跌对他们而言可能被视为"打折买入"的机会。 美联储政策：若市场预期美联储将维持高利率更长时间，或缩减资产负债表，会导致全球美元流动性收紧，抽离所有风险资产（包括股票和加密货 币）市场的资金。 美元走强：强势美元通常会给以美元计价的加密货币带来压力。 经济衰退担忧：避险情绪上升，投资者会抛售高风险资产，转向现金或国债。 Mt. Gox赔付启动：近期，已破产的交易所Mt. Gox开始向其债权人偿还超过140亿美元的比特币和比特币现金。这些债权人持有比特币近10年，许多可 能选择立即卖出获利了结，形成巨大的潜在供应冲击，对市场构成心理和实际压力。 德国政府抛 ...

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 供应宽松压制油价，地缘与避险风险成关键 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月17日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周原油呈N型波动且重心下移，当前在63-65美元震荡。上周五因俄罗斯新罗西斯克港遭袭（中断220万桶/ 日出口）油价大涨，但港口已恢复作业，需警惕盘面回落及63美元支撑位。汽柴油支撑弱化或继续回落，炼 厂开工提升的支撑有限，叠加全球原油供应高位，市场宽松格局压制油价。地缘风险短期解除，宏观面中性 但需关注资金避险情绪。中短期原油维持60-65美元低位震荡，重点留意地缘与避险风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油ETF隐含波动率(右轴) WTI原油主 ...

加密货币市场，接连遭受重挫！ 新一轮的急速杀跌，又导致不少人爆仓。CoinGlass数据显示，24小时加密货币市场超22万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为10.77亿美元（约合人民币76亿元）。 11月14日，比特币盘中"跳水"，盘中一度跌破97000美元/枚，以太坊一度跌超10%。狗狗币、艾达币等均有不同程度跌幅。 截至11月15日发稿，比特币跌破95000美元关口，报94301.3美元，跌幅5.44%。 | 2 4 | 以太坊 | $3,103.22 | -2.23% | -8.48% | $380.71B | $46.70B | 20.21% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ETH | | | | | | | | 3 | 4 6 | $1.0008 | -0.03% | -0.08% | $183.90B | $180.26B | 76.72% | | | USDT | | | | | | | | ব | XRP XRP | $2.2480 | -3.27% | -3.00% | $135.79B | $7.13B | 3.09% | ...

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing atypical weakness for November, with liquidity drying up and a risk-off tone prevailing [2][5][6] - There is a unique dynamic where yields are rising while equities and the dollar are moving lower, reminiscent of past tariff policy changes [3][4] Bitcoin and Crypto Market - Bitcoin has broken below the $100,000 level, with speculation of liquidations from major holders contributing to a broader risk-off sentiment [6][19] - The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks remains strong, with a 75-80% correlation noted, indicating that declines in tech are impacting Bitcoin prices [20][23] Big Tech and AI Concerns - Major tech stocks are showing weakness, raising concerns about valuations and the potential for an AI bubble [8][9] - Nvidia's product refresh cycle and depreciation costs are under scrutiny, with potential impacts on cash flows and stock performance [10][11][12] Applied Materials Performance - Applied Materials reported a mixed quarterly performance, beating expectations but showing a year-over-year revenue decline, particularly in China [15][16][17] - The memory business showed some improvement, but overall market conditions are challenging for stocks in the AI space [18][19] Crude Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil prices are rising due to geopolitical events, including Ukraine's attack on a Russian Black Sea port, affecting 2.2 million barrels per day of supply [25][26] - Concerns over Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential military actions in Venezuela are also contributing to upward pressure on oil prices [27][28][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After nearly two weeks of oscillatory corrections, the precious metals market regained upward momentum this week, with both gold and silver prices reaching new stage highs. Uncertainty in macro - data, increased bets on Fed rate cuts, liquidity buffers, and rising U.S. government debt risks pushed prices up. However, Fed officials' divergent stances and neutral - hawkish signals affected the probability of a December rate cut, putting pressure on precious metals [6]. - In the short term, if the U.S. stock market continues to correct, liquidity risks may increase the pressure for a high - level correction in precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected may suppress rate - cut expectations and push up U.S. Treasury yields, potentially harming gold prices. In the long run, due to the increasing U.S. debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the dollar, gold remains attractive, and with central bank gold purchases, the gold price center may rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market rebounded this week. The passage of the temporary appropriation bill, uncertainty in macro - data, signs of a weakening job market, and rising U.S. government debt risk pushed up gold and silver prices. Fed officials had different stances, and the probability of a December rate cut dropped to 50%. Silver's upward trend was stronger than gold's, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, a continued correction in the U.S. stock market and a more hawkish Fed could pressure precious metal prices. In the long term, the high U.S. debt and central bank gold purchases are favorable for gold. Next week, the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 900 - 970 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11500 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Performance**: As of November 14, 2025, COMEX silver was at $52.470 per ounce, up 8.79% week - on - week; the Shanghai silver main 2512 contract was at 12351 yuan/kilogram, up 7.55%. COMEX gold was at $4169.5 per ounce, up 4.03%; the Shanghai gold main 2512 contract was at 953.20 yuan/gram, up 3.47% [9]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 13, 2025, SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.82% to 1048.93 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.4% to 15173 tons [14]. - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, COMEX position data was suspended. As of September 23, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 2.43% to 528789 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 1.75% to 165805 contracts, and net positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [15][19]. - **Basis**: As of November 13, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.22 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 70 yuan/kilogram [22]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.81% to 37541509.64 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased by 2.05% to 89616 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.8% to 478558059 ounces, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.40% to 623052 kilograms [28]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of September 2025, China's silver imports increased by 19.17% to 245749 kilograms, while silver ore imports decreased by 13.19% to 160587998 kilograms. Semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production. As of September 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4371000 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.90% [34][39]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: As of the end of 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year); total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [45][49]. - **Gold Industry**: This week, gold jewelry prices rose with the increase in gold prices. As of November 13, 2025, Lao Feng Xiang's gold price was 1325 yuan/gram, Chow Tai Fook's was 1333 yuan/gram, and Zhou Liu Fu's was 1295 yuan/gram. The Chinese gold recycling price was 954.90 yuan/gram, up 4.60% week - on - week [56]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, gold ETF investment demand increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in Q3, with a total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: This week, the U.S. dollar index declined under pressure at a high level, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield decreased slightly. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread was basically the same as last week, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.28%, slightly lower than last week [62][66][70]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In Q3 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter - on - quarter, reversing the decline at the beginning of the year. The net gold purchase volume in Q3 was 220 tons, a 28% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 10% increase year - on - year. The total net gold purchase volume from the beginning of the year to now was 634 tons, lower than the extremely high levels of the past three years but still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [74][76].

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown lasted for 43 days, breaking the previous record of 35 days, and has resulted in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion [1] - The temporary funding bill signed by Trump only includes three annual budget appropriations, leaving nine unresolved, which may lead to another shutdown after January 30, 2026 [1] - The uncertainty from the shutdown is expected to delay long-term investment decisions by businesses and reduce consumer spending, potentially weakening the intrinsic growth of the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - The gold price closed down 0.29% at 953.2 yuan per gram, indicating a slight decline in the precious metals market [3] - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges due to the government shutdown and trade tensions, leading to increased policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve [4] - Central banks are increasing gold holdings, and there is a potential for a bull market in precious metals similar to the 1970s, although price corrections may occur after reaching new highs [4][5]

具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4196.26美元/盎司，短暂震荡走低后，转回升走强，并在美盘初录得日内 高点4245.07美元，之后美盘开盘，遇阻回落，连续走低，之盘尾触及日内低点4145.25美元，最终有所 触底回升，收于4171.25美元，日振幅99.82美元，收跌25.01美元，跌幅0.6%。 影响上，虽然日内受到市场预期政府重开后将公布显示劳动力市场疲软的经济数据，可能推动美联储12 月降息。以及地缘局势的推动而先行走强，但由于特朗普签署法案，结束美国史上最长政府停摆，美盘 开盘美国政府重开，减弱避险情绪令市场进行获利了结，加上诸多美联储官员对降息持谨慎态度，减弱 金价多头力量使其回落走低。 上交易日周四(11月13日)：国际黄金遇阻给出的趋势线压力附近目标，以及美国结束史上最长停摆，诸 多美联储官员再次释放偏鹰派信号产生利空，令其回落偏倒垂收跌，形态上也有一定的反弹见顶预期， 暗示短期有回调至4090或4020美元附近的风险，但目前未跌破5日均线支撑，故此，暂先维持震荡或再 度走强的预期对待。 ...

International News - The U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days has ended, with federal employees expected to return to work starting Thursday [1] - The U.S. and Argentina have reached a framework for a trade agreement, agreeing to open markets in key commodity sectors [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are below 50%, according to short-term interest rate derivatives [3] - White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett indicated that current data supports further rate cuts [4] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized the importance of maintaining rates to reduce inflation towards the 2% target [5] - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that inflation remains above target, urging caution in rate cuts [6] - A report from the American Bankers Association revealed that one-quarter of U.S. households are spending over 95% of their income on necessities, affected by inflation outpacing wage growth [7] - Bitcoin fell below $100,000 amid new risk aversion and tech stock sell-offs, with 10X Research indicating a confirmed bear market for cryptocurrencies [8][9] Domestic News - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a significant mining discovery in Liaoning, identifying China's first thousand-ton low-grade super-large gold mine, with a total gold metal amount of 1,444.49 tons and an average grade of 0.56 grams per ton [21] - On November 11, the Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with Spain's Minister of Economy, Trade and Enterprises, discussing China-Spain and China-Europe trade relations, emphasizing China's commitment to high-level opening and expressing concerns over Dutch government intervention in ASML's semiconductor matters [22] Corporate News - Tesla is developing a feature to support Apple's CarPlay system in response to customer demand, while recalling approximately 10,500 units of the Powerwall 2 AC battery system [15][16] - Boeing's factory workers in St. Louis voted to accept a new five-year contract proposal, ending the longest strike since 1948 [17] - Elon Musk denied reports that xAI raised $15 billion in Series E funding [18] - European financial stability officials are discussing the integration of dollar reserves held by central banks outside the U.S. to establish an alternative liquidity support mechanism to the Federal Reserve [19]

证券时报记者 赵黎昀 阶段性回落后，近期贵金属涨势再起。11月13日，国际白银现货价格突破54美元/盎司，逼近此前10月 中旬创下的54.468美元/盎司历史高点。而在国内期货市场上，沪银主力合约盘中再创历史新高，最高 报1.26万元/千克。 光大期货研究所有色金属总监展大鹏表示，美联储不降息下的经济状况担忧与降息下的通胀担忧推动市 场避险情绪，贵金属继续保持偏强走势。值得注意的是，白银本轮表现更加抢眼，金银比呈现快速回归 之势，这也表明市场更看好白银向上的弹性。 白银涨势再起 银饰品消费通常对价格敏感，且受到经济增速影响。金饰品单价过高背景下，年轻消费群体有寻求白银 作为替代品需求。但在经济下行背景下，珠宝首饰消费面临取舍。2024年中国银饰品消费量下滑至约 1250吨，2025年预计进一步下滑至1230吨。不过，今年银价持续上涨反而刺激了市场消费热情，印度金 银饰品、器具需求激增，普通消费者从对黄金的痴迷转向白银，预计全球银饰银器市场规模基本保持稳 定。 投资者不宜追高 2024年全球白银需求3.55万吨，同比增长3.6%。其中工业需求2.2万吨，占比61.8%，而工业需求中，光 伏和其他电子工业用银合计 ...

11月12日，沪金前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓16.84万手，空单持仓7.01万手，多空比 2.4。净持仓为9.83万手，相较上日减少2513手。 11月13日，上期所黄金期货仓单90426千克，环比上个交易日增加810千克。 分析观点： 数据显示，11月13日上海黄金现货价格报价957.80元/克，相较于期货主力价格（961.22元/克）贴水3.42 元/克。 （11月13日）全国黄金价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 957元/克 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海黄金现货市场 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 958.72元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | 期货市场上看，11月13日收盘，沪金期货主力合约报961.22元/克，涨幅1.56%，最高触及963.96元/克， 最低下探945.96元/克，日内成交量达307850手。 【市场资讯】 恒泰期货研报：首先，美联储年内降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避 ...