Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic black commodities have peaked and declined. With the approaching effective date of new US tariffs, market sentiment cooled significantly during the night session on Friday. If there are no unexpected statements from the domestic Politburo meeting and the Fed's interest rate meeting this week, market sentiment is expected to be under pressure. Domestically, the relatively low aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices. However, due to the off - season for downstream demand and weakening export demand, the rebound of aluminum prices will be limited, and overall prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is estimated to be 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 US dollars/ton [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [13]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 180,000 tons to 5.1 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot price was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures price, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.0 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss in domestic aluminum spot imports has widened [13]. - **Demand**: According to Aizec Consulting's research, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products continued to decline, and the operating conditions of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, bars, profiles, and alloys all weakened. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season, and most buyers in the aluminum spot market are cautious and waiting [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 1.22% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), while LME Aluminum closed down 0.27% at 2,631 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Term Spread**: The monthly spread continued to decline [29]. - **Spot Basis**: The aluminum ingot basis in major domestic regions weakened [32]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: The spot prices in East and South China were relatively strong [37]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M had a slight premium [40]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit decreased to 3,729 yuan/ton, but the absolute level remained high [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to SMM data, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 5.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 1.11 million tons [49]. - **Aluminum Bar Inventory**: The aluminum bar inventory was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum bars and ingots increased week - on - week [52]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 200,000 tons to 4.51 million tons due to warehousing [55]. 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: No specific price change details were provided in the text. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [64]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [69]. 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In June, China's actual operating alumina capacity increased by 3.1%, the production rate was 79.7%, and the output increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with overall sufficient supply [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.83 million tons. Due to capacity replacement, the operating capacity decreased slightly, and the industry's production rate declined month - on - month. The output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.2% due to the number of days, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the overall electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level [77]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated and rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. In June, the aluminum water ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points and continued to rise slightly. It is expected to decline in July [80]. 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum bars, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods declined; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but recently showed weakness [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased compared to the actual production in the same period last year, indicating a weakening of overall home - appliance - related demand. Current real - estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and photovoltaic - related demand also faced pressure [99]. 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss in aluminum ingot spot imports has widened [102]. - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5, most others will stop around mid - January, and some expect to stop after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - Finished steel prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down [4] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, the US PPI data in June was unexpectedly lower than expected, affected by the decline in service prices, and the market also focuses on the US fiscal and debt prospects and the pressure on Powell [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% [4] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag, and its bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year as of 2025. As of the end of June, alumina enterprises' in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons [4] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Fed kept the June interest rate unchanged. The dot - plot after the meeting showed that there might be two more rate cuts in 2025, but Powell's speech was hawkish, and the market's expectation of rapid rate cuts was dashed. The Israel - Iran conflict continued to escalate, and the geopolitical situation led to a decline in market risk appetite. In China, the May consumption data maintained high growth, but its sustainability was questionable, and investment and export data were under pressure. The economy still needed policy support. Fundamentally, the situation of high molten aluminum and low ingot casting remained unchanged, and the supply of goods in the spot market was still limited. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots continued to decline to 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last Thursday; the inventory of aluminum rods was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. On the consumption side, the rapid rise of aluminum prices was of questionable sustainability, and downstream consumers were obviously hesitant to make purchases due to high prices. According to SMM, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% last week [3][8]. - The continuous escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and Iran's claim to block the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend have increased market risk aversion, but it is also expected to increase the transportation cost of bauxite. Trump's trade policy still has great uncertainty, and the negative impact of the tariff war on the economic fundamentals is still emerging, so there are certain macro - concerns. Fundamentally, according to the three - party research platform, the proportion of molten aluminum in China still increased slightly in June, so the ingot casting volume continued to decline. The limited supply and short - term low inventory are expected to continue, which will support the B - structure of the SHFE aluminum futures market and boost the unilateral price preference. However, high aluminum prices and the seasonal off - peak consumption season limit consumption, and the upward space for aluminum prices is restricted [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,503 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, to 2,561.5 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, an increase of 58.5 yuan/ton. The price of SHFE aluminum continuous third contract increased from 20,060 dollars/ton to 20,170 dollars/ton, an increase of 110 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.0 to 7.9. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.42 dollars/ton to 11.16 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 353,225 tons to 342,850 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 46,193 tons to 51,129 tons. The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum increased from 20,422 yuan/ton to 20,726 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from - 230 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of Southern Reserve spot aluminum increased from 20,262 yuan/ton to 20,570 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 160 yuan/ton to 156 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased from 46 tons to 44.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,965.29 yuan/ton to 16,833.67 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,456.71 yuan/ton to 3,892.34 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 304 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of Southern Reserve spot aluminum was 20,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 308 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed announced its June interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was in line with market expectations. The Fed said that the uncertainty about the outlook had decreased but was still at a high level. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The Fed's dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates twice by a total of 50 basis points in 2025, consistent with the March expectation, but only 25 basis points in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 50 basis points. Fed Chairman Powell said it was appropriate to maintain the current interest rate level. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of this year. US industrial output in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the second decline in three months. US new housing starts in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.256 million units, and building permits decreased slightly to 1.393 million units, both hitting five - year lows. US President Trump approved an attack plan against Iran but did not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. Iran launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel. The EU is trying to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the one between the UK and the US to resolve some tariff issues and avoid immediate counter - measures against the US. The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0%, one step away from returning to the previous negative interest rate state. The Norwegian Central Bank announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to 4.25%, the first interest rate adjustment since the pandemic [6]. - On the consumption side, according to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% month - on - month. The downstream aluminum processing sector as a whole entered the off - season, but the operating rates of the aluminum cable and primary aluminum alloy sectors still showed some resilience. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.4 percentage points next week. In terms of inventory, according to SMM, on June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last Thursday; the inventory of aluminum rods was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the Israel - Iran conflict and macro - economic factors, along with fundamental supply and demand conditions, are considered. The short - term low inventory is expected to continue, supporting the B - structure of the SHFE aluminum futures market and boosting the unilateral price preference, but high prices and the off - peak consumption season limit the upward space for aluminum prices [8]. 4. Industry News - According to customs data, in May 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 223,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.4%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.0575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. In May 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 190,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.5% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. From January to May, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 990,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [9]. - According to IAI data, in the first four months of 2025, the primary aluminum production in Europe (including Russia) increased by 2.2% year - on - year, from 2.26 million tons to 2.31 million tons. This was due to continuous growth in almost every month except February. The production in February this year was 537,000 tons, compared with 540,000 tons in February 2024. The production growth rate in April this year was significantly higher than the same period last year, which was the key to the overall growth. Among them, the production in January increased by 3.3% year - on - year to 597,000 tons, compared with a moderate growth rate of 0.7% in the same period in 2024; the year - on - year growth rate in March was 2.9%, compared with 0.9% in March 2024; the year - on - year growth in April was 3%, exceeding the 1.45% growth rate in April 2024 [9]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third contract, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium (0 - 3), SHFE aluminum current - first spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [10][11][17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that copper prices are expected to decline to around $9,100 per ton in the third quarter of 2025 due to the reversal of tight supply conditions caused by preemptive imports in the U.S. and slowing demand from China [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the copper market was significantly tightened due to two main factors: pre-imports in the U.S. before potential tariffs and the early release of demand in China [2] - The report anticipates that the U.S. will import approximately 430,000 tons of excess refined copper in the first half of 2025, which is equivalent to about six months of normal import demand [2] Group 2 - The report suggests that as the certainty of copper tariffs approaches, the situation of preemptive imports will reverse, leading to a potential de-inventory period in the U.S. where refined copper imports may drop to very low levels [2] - China's copper demand growth rate is projected to be around 7% year-on-year, but this growth momentum has shown signs of slowing since April 2025 [2][3] - Despite strong demand from the power grid, the report predicts that demand for air conditioning and white goods will face headwinds, leading to a potential stagnation or slight contraction in overall copper demand in China in the second half of 2025 [3] Group 3 - The overall copper supply growth remains challenged, but prices are expected to find basic support around $9,000 per ton or slightly above this level, as price corrections may attract buying interest from investors, companies, and stockpilers [3] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East pose a downside risk to basic metal demand, although they may have a more significant positive impact on aluminum supply [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term and short positions on rallies are recommended in the medium - to - long - term due to eased supply tightness of bauxite, weakened cost support, and limited demand growth [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend in the short - term, with attention on the pressure at the 20,500 level, as production capacity remains high, demand has not significantly recovered, and social inventory is extremely low [8]. - ADC12 aluminum alloy is likely to be volatile in the short - term and short positions on rallies are suggested in the medium - to - long - term, considering the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, high inventory, and the impact of US tariff policies [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 View and Strategy - Alumina: The overall supply tightness of bauxite in China is gradually alleviated by imported ores, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. It is in a situation of strong supply and demand, but demand growth is limited, so it may be volatile and weak in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Production capacity is at an extremely high level, but total demand has not significantly recovered. Social inventory is decreasing and at a very low level. Affected by positive signals from China - US talks, the price once rose to 20,500. It may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend [8]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of ADC12 is gradually forming, with high inventory and demand suppressed by US tariff policies. Only wheel hub export orders are good. The industry is in a loss state, providing some support for prices. It may be volatile in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. 3.2 Market Review - Due to positive signals from China - US talks, LME aluminum first rose and then fell, with a 2.1% increase compared to last week, and SHFE aluminum continued to rise, with a 1.84% increase. Alumina was weakly volatile, with a 1.69% decline [11][16]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite prices remained stable, with prices in Guizhou at 500 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 530 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 450 yuan/ton. Overseas, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite remained at $80/ton, and that of Australian bauxite fell to $69/ton. Inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 26.43 million tons, a 300,000 - ton increase [21]. - Alumina: Some regional prices fell slightly. The import profit and loss recovered to around 12 yuan/ton, and future imports will remain weak. Production cost decreased to 2,845 yuan/ton, and production profit rose to around 450 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate but remained at the lowest level in the past four years [26][31][36]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Aluminum prices rose, and spot premiums and discounts in various regions fell significantly. Aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, reaching 141,000 tons. SHFE and LME inventories were at extremely low levels [44][49][52]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking of Aluminum Alloy - ADC12: Spot prices in various regions mainly rose to 19,600 yuan/ton. In May, domestic scrap aluminum shipments reached 59,010 tons, at a very high level in the past five years, and raw material supply was sufficient. From January to April, the cumulative import volume of aluminum scrap was 697,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.66% but a continuous slowdown in growth. In May, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 41.32%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 38.04%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots reached 513,500 tons, at a very high level in the past five years. The average cost of ADC12 in May fell to 19,537 yuan/ton, and production profit fell to 173 yuan/ton. Social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, with the former at a medium level and the latter at the highest level in the past three years [57][61][65]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Building Materials (Referred to as "Chengcai") -云贵区域短流程建筑 steel 生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量 74.1 万吨；安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂停产影响日产量 1.62 万吨左右 [3][4] -2024 年 12 月 30 日 - 2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降 40.3%，同比增 43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2. Aluminum -美国 5 月 PPI 环比涨幅低于预期，通胀数据低暗示美联储可能尽快恢复降息，压制美元，昨日铝价偏强震荡 [3] -全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能 11082 万吨/年，运行总产能 8901 万吨/年，周度开工率回升 1.57 个百分点至 80.32% [4] -6 月下游铝加工淡季氛围浓，周度开工环比降 0.4 个百分点至 60.9% [4] -6 月 12 日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 46.0 万吨，较本周一下降 1.7 万吨，环比上周四降 4.4 万吨 [4] -供应端偏紧，铝厂策略调整致铸锭量降，消费地到货量低造成流通货源紧张，消费端韧性消化供应 [4] -短期低到货量支撑库存去化，关注能否刷新 44 万吨年内低点 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，淡季价格有压力，库存去化支撑价格，短期铝价预计区间偏强震荡 [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has led to a significant rise in Midwest U.S. aluminum premiums and a shift to a premium state for LME aluminum [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data for May shows inflation pressures are temporarily easing, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, indicating that the new tariff policy has not yet had a significant impact on inflation [1] - China's bauxite production in May reached 5.3664 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5.31% and a year-on-year increase of 8.97%, while imports in April hit a record high of 20.684 million tons, up 25.62% month-on-month and 45.44% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Guinea's bauxite mining policies have tightened, particularly with the revocation of mining licenses in the Axis mining area, which produces about 40 million tons annually, raising market concerns [2] - Despite the Axis mining area being closed, projections suggest that China's bauxite imports will still meet domestic demand in 2025 [2] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in May was 3.729 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%, with stable operating capacity due to sufficient raw material supply [2] Group 3 - As of June, the aluminum processing sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with a slight decrease in weekly operating rates to 60.9% [3] - Different segments within the aluminum industry are showing varied performance, with some areas like construction and photovoltaic materials seeing reduced operating rates, while others like 3C and power pipeline orders remain strong [3] - Global aluminum inventory has dropped to approximately 966,000 tons, a decrease of 1,006,000 tons year-on-year, indicating a significant destocking trend [3] Group 4 - The U.S. tariff policy has not yet significantly suppressed domestic inflation, and combined with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar, these factors are providing support for aluminum prices [4] - Domestic bauxite production and imports have increased significantly in the first five months of the year, despite recent disruptions in Guinea's bauxite policies, maintaining a loose supply situation [4] - The current global aluminum inventory is below 1 million tons, leading to market concerns and a shift to a premium state for both domestic and international aluminum [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [4] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, there are no negative factors on the supply - side at home and abroad, consumption remains strong, and the high - demand reality is hard to change. The aluminum price is unlikely to fall due to low social inventory and the lack of a stocking trend. However, the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may face difficulties without unexpected positive stimuli. Also, beware of cost collapse risks and pay attention to social inventory changes and the US interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - For alumina, the spot market price has declined, and the trading enthusiasm has dropped. The supply is showing signs of recovery from both production and inventory. The cost of bauxite has short - term support, and the expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,150 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,080 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on June 9, 2025, was 19,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.2%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 133,229 lots, an increase of 19,493 lots, and the holding volume was 181,672 lots, an increase of 214 lots [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 9, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,280 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 9, 2025, was 2,909 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,892 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-1.47%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 515,561 lots, a decrease of 180,818 lots, and the holding volume was 301,043 lots, an increase of 2,608 lots [2]. Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 362,000 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Supply is stable, consumption is strong, and the inventory in June is expected to decline slightly. However, the sustainability of consumption is uncertain, and the upward breakthrough of aluminum price may be difficult without positive stimuli [3]. - Alumina: The spot price has declined, and the supply is recovering. The bauxite price has short - term support, and the supply surplus expectation remains [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously Bearish [4]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in SHFE aluminum [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that aluminum prices may drop to $2,100 per ton by early 2026 due to accelerated supply from Indonesia, which will lead to significant oversupply in the market [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The expected increase in production from three Indonesian smelters, each with a capacity of 500,000 tons, will result in a surplus of 1 million tons in 2026, marking the largest oversupply since 2020 [1] - The price forecast for aluminum in 2026 and 2027 has been revised down from $2,540 and $2,800 to $2,230 and $2,500 per ton, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in cost prices, weak alumina prices, and energy prices will exert downward pressure on aluminum prices in 2026 [1] - As the market rebalances, prices are expected to rise to a range of $2,150 to $2,550 per ton in the following years [1]