Economic Indicators - US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1%[1] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April[1] - New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual increase rose to 2.7%, slightly above the previous value of 2.5% but below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations[2] - There is an increased probability of a 0.25% rate cut in August, rising from approximately 60% to over 80% following the inflation data release[2] Currency Outlook - New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1, indicating a recovery in the economy[3] - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to target 0.61 against the US dollar, as the upward momentum of the US dollar weakens[3]

Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1%[1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April[1] - New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual increase rose to 2.7%, slightly above the previous value of 2.5% but below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations[2] - There is an increased probability of a 0.25% rate cut in August, rising from approximately 60% to over 80% following the inflation data release[2] Currency Outlook - New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1, indicating a recovery in the economy, with contributions from primary industries, goods production, and services[3] - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to target 0.61 against the U.S. dollar, as the upward momentum of the U.S. dollar weakens[3]

西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观经济预测主管马修·哈桑表示，澳大利亚经济复苏势头在2024年下半年升 温，但在2025年上半年陷入停滞。虽然6月的领先指数增长率并不疲软，但却接近趋势水平，且明显低 于年初水平。这表明，下半年澳大利亚的经济活动将保持疲软。（新华财经） 西太平洋银行和墨尔本研究院7月23日发布的报告指出，2025年6月澳大利亚西太平洋银行／墨尔本研究 院经济活动领先指数（Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity）的6个月年化增 长率下降至0.03%。同时，5月的领先指数增长率从-0.08%上调至0.11%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity for Australia shows a declining growth rate, indicating a potential economic slowdown in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 6-month annualized growth rate of the Leading Index fell to 0.03% in June 2025, while the May growth rate was revised from -0.08% to 0.11% [1]. - The forecast for Australia's economic growth in 2025 is only 1.7%, slightly above the 1.3% expected for 2024, but still disappointing compared to the historical average growth rate of 2% over the past 20 years [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The primary drag on the Leading Index growth rate in June was the decline in commodity prices, which has negatively impacted the index by 0.24 percentage points since December of the previous year [2]. - Factors contributing to the weakness in commodity prices include a 5.3% drop in commodity prices priced in USD and a 2.6% increase in the AUD/USD exchange rate [2]. - The total hours worked in the Australian labor market and consumer expectations have also weakened, further affecting the Leading Index growth rate [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the US economy experiences a slowdown or if financial markets face another sell-off, the Leading Index growth rate in Australia may fall into negative territory [2]. - Conversely, if the upcoming inflation data for Q2 shows a decline, it could pave the way for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in August [2]. - The RBA is expected to follow a gradual easing cycle, with two additional 25 basis point cuts anticipated in the first half of 2026 [2].

金融研究 2025年7月23日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：7 月 22 日，A 股四大股指全线强势，其中上证指数上涨 0.62%，报收 3581.86 点；深成 指上涨 0.84%，报收 11099.83 点；创业板指上涨 0.61%，报收 2310.86 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.83%， 报收 1016.27 点。市场成交 19,286 亿元，较前日增加 2,015 亿元。行业板块方面，煤炭(+6.18%)， 建筑材料(+4.49%)，建筑装饰(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.98%)，计算机(-0.73%)，通信(-0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IF>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,539/152/2,723。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-138、-215、31、322 亿元，分别变动-129、-88、+77、+139 亿元。 股指期货 国债期货 现券：目前活跃合约为 2509 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250006.IB，收益率变动+0bps，对应 净基差-0.014，IRR1.56%；5 年期国债期货 CTD ...

中国利率互换曲线结束七个月倒挂，投资者预计最新刺激措施将重振经济。 Wind数据显示，中国5年期与1年期利率互换（IRS）利差已于上周五转正。本周二，中国5年期利率互换续升至1.56%附近，5年和1年利率互换利 差进一步走阔至约5个基点，为去年12月以来最大。该利差今年2月时倒挂幅度曾一度超过15个基点。 5年和1年期离岸非交割利率互换(NDIRS)的利差在转正后，周二扩大至4个基点，创去年11月来最大。 澳新银行策略师邢兆鹏则认为，多重利好催化下，交易员正押注更高的利率互换。长期利率的上升可能持续，利率互换曲线陡峭化才刚刚开始。 此前出炉的一系列数据暗示中国经济正在复苏：国家统计局数据显示，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，经济运行总体平稳。6月社融和新增人民 币贷款数据亦优于预期。 随着政策面持续强化"反内卷"导向，强调综合治理企业低价无序竞争和产能过剩问题，以及雅鲁藏布江水电工程的开工。投资者对中国后续逐渐 摆脱低物价状态有了更多想象。当前的曲线正常化标志着投资者对中国经济长期走势判断的重要转变，对货币宽松的预期，正在向政策正常化转 变。 友山基金联席首席投资官许永斌表示，长期经济有望好转，市场预期先行 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Index**: On July 21, the four major A-share stock indexes were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.87% to close at 2,296.88 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.04% to close at 1,007.89 points. Market turnover was 1.7271 trillion yuan, an increase of 133.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, building materials (+6.06%), building decoration (+3.79%), and steel (+3.44%) led the gains; banks (-0.77%), composites (-0.34%), and computers (-0.31%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,002/121/1,291 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -9, -127, -46, and 18.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +12.6, -0.6, -8.2, and -3.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 149.06, 105.71, 20.81, and 1.04 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -12.52%, -9.53%, -2.83%, and -0.21% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 23%, 16%, 32%, and 45% respectively [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 21, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.363, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.513, up 1.69 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.613, up 1.21 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.958, up 2.78 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.023, and an IRR of 1.63%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.031, and an IRR of 1.68%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +1.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.041, and an IRR of 1.75%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.33% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 170.7 billion yuan and withdrew 226.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for medium - and long - term investors [2]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing industry has seen a recovery in prosperity as the industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - **Table 1**: Shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [6]. - **Table 2**: Displays the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including information on code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. - **Table 3**: Presents the changes in the short - end funding rate market, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 rates compared with yesterday, one week ago, and one month ago [11]. - **Figure 1**: Illustrates the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [8][9]. - **Figure 2**: Tracks domestic medium - level economic data, based on the comparison of medium - level data in each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), scored according to the degree of change [12][13].

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, Hangzhou's total electricity consumption exceeded 50.3 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, indicating overall economic growth across all three major industries: agriculture, industry, and services [1] - The electricity consumption pattern in Hangzhou reflects strong resilience and internal momentum in the economy, with a rapid increase in consumption during the first three months, followed by a slowdown in April due to international factors, and a significant recovery in May and June driven by effective economic policies [1] Digital Economy - The digital economy in Hangzhou is thriving, with service sector electricity consumption reaching 17.89 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, continuing to be the main engine of economic growth [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors led the growth with a 15.7% increase in electricity consumption, while the internet services sector saw a remarkable growth rate of 237.7% [1] Industrial Transformation - Hangzhou's industrial electricity consumption totaled 21.71 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, with improvements noted in industrial operations [2] - High-tech manufacturing sectors such as instrument manufacturing, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and biopharmaceuticals showed significant growth rates of 21.4%, 12.6%, and 12.0% respectively, while traditional chemical industries experienced a decline of 8.7% [2] - The consumption data indicates a strong recovery in the consumer market, with wholesale and retail, as well as real estate sectors, achieving double-digit growth rates of 13.1% and 11.8% respectively [2]

金十数据7月21日讯，欧洲央行周一公布的调查显示，欧元区企业虽对增长前景保持乐观，但盈利普遍 承压，部分归因于贸易紧张局势。尽管期待已久的经济复苏尚未实现，导致欧元区近年增长乏力，但企 业对未来好转的信心使就业水平维持高位。欧洲央行《企业融资渠道季度调查》显示，8%的企业报告 过去三个月营业额增长，23%对下一季度发展持乐观态度。然而企业盈利持续恶化，中小企业受影响面 尤为广泛。"多数企业表示在一定程度上受到贸易摩擦冲击，其中对美出口企业和制造业企业受影响最 深，"欧洲央行补充称。约30%企业担忧供应链延迟或短缺问题，并表示需寻找替代供应商。尽管长期 通胀预期维持不变，企业已将未来一年的价格增长预期从2.9%下调至2.5%。 欧洲央行调查：企业信心犹存但盈利恶化 贸易摩擦影响显现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a strategic decision to stabilize the economic environment amidst complex international dynamics [1][5][16]. Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter reached 5.3%, continuing the robust trend from the first quarter, while the manufacturing PMI has remained above the threshold for several months, and retail sales are showing steady recovery [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been below 1% for three consecutive months, with the core CPI stabilizing around 0.5%, providing a favorable backdrop for maintaining interest rates [3][5]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The current stable inflation environment allows the PBOC to avoid raising interest rates to curb prices, thus preserving policy space for future adjustments [5][10]. - The PBOC's decision to keep the LPR unchanged is a tactical move to maintain balance in the face of international financial market volatility, particularly concerning potential capital outflows and pressure on the RMB exchange rate [5][10]. Policy Implementation - The PBOC has previously implemented measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and targeted interest rate reductions, which are still being assessed for their impact on the real economy [7][10]. - The central bank is focusing on "precision drip irrigation" through targeted monetary policy tools rather than broad-based rate cuts, aiming to direct financial resources to key sectors like technology innovation and green development [9][10]. Future Outlook - The direction of the LPR in the second half of the year will depend on the strength of economic recovery and external shocks, particularly the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes [10][14]. - If the economic recovery shows signs of slowing, the likelihood of structural or comprehensive rate cuts will increase [14]. Implications for Households - The stability of the LPR provides a temporary window for households to optimize their financial structures, especially for those with mortgage obligations linked to the 5-year LPR [14][16]. - Households are encouraged to explore investment channels and maintain a healthy balance sheet to navigate potential future interest rate fluctuations [16][17].