Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on February 9, with an opening price of $4983.69 per ounce, a peak of $5060.37, a low of $4965.16, and a closing price of $5058.90 [1]. Economic Indicators - A survey by the New York Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. consumer expectations regarding inflation and the job market improved slightly in January, with the median inflation expectation for the next year at 3.1%, down from 3.4% in December [3]. - The probability of finding a new job within three months increased to approximately 46%, while the perceived likelihood of job loss decreased [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was supported by signs of stability in the labor market, with policymakers indicating that recent rate cuts would support the labor market while keeping rates sufficiently high to exert downward pressure on inflation [3]. Geopolitical Developments - Following an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. advised vessels flying the American flag to avoid Iranian waters, highlighting the risks associated with maritime navigation in the region [4]. - The U.S. Department of Defense reported the interception of an oil tanker linked to Venezuela, indicating an expansion of efforts to combat illegal oil transport globally [5]. - Mexico has suspended oil shipments to Cuba to avoid potential retaliation from Washington, as it had become the largest oil supplier to Cuba following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with a daily close above key moving average support levels, although short-term indicators suggested potential for a pullback [9][10]. - The market is advised to maintain a cautious trading strategy, balancing between long and short positions [11].

但力度有限，短期来看，这些都缺乏实质性依据，只是短线的预期压力。日内将关注美国12月零售销售月率、美国11月商业库存月率等数据，市场预期将 利好金价，故此，日内操作将继续保持逢低支撑做多为主。 另外，本周将迎来美国1月失业率、美国1月季调后非农就业人口(万人)，以及美国1月未季调CPI年率和月率等数据，根据上周公布的数据结果和市场预期 来看，大概率将整体利好金价，故此，本周操作上，依然偏向低多看涨为主。就算最终结果利空金价，也是震荡波动为主，所以，做多为主的问题不大。 张尧浠：数据预期打压美元偏弱、金价保持低多看涨为主 上交易日周一(2月9日)：国际黄金高开后反弹收涨，受周末地缘局势升级推动，以及对于本周将公布的重磅数据的预期，美元指数先行走低，支撑金价维 持在中轨上方，并有所突破10日均线阻力，但需进一步收阳持稳多头动力才能进一步走强，否则将仍有再度回撤至中轨或30日均线支撑的调整需求，不 过，这也是再度的入场多单机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于4987.98美元/盎司，先行走低收复缺口，并录得日内低点4964.04美元，之后反弹回升，并陷入区间震荡波动，但美盘后半 段，多头再度发力，于盘尾录得日内高点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [10][12]. Core Views - The demand for copper and aluminum has weakened as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to stable prices in these metals [6][9]. - The gold market is supported by the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue throughout the year [10]. - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper, which is expected to support prices [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown a performance of +3.3% over 1 month, +24.2% over 3 months, and +102.0% over 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. 2. Price and Inventory Data - Copper prices: LME copper closed at $12,900 per ton, down 4.02% from January 30, while SHFE copper closed at ¥99,810 per ton, down 3.26% [6]. - Aluminum prices: Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices are at ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [8]. - Inventory levels: LME copper inventory is at 183,275 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8,300 tons, while SHFE copper inventory is at 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons [6]. 3. Downstream Demand - The operating rate for domestic refined copper rod production is 69.07%, down 0.47 percentage points, while the operating rate for aluminum profiles is 36.0%, down 8.3 percentage points [8][9]. - The report notes that as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing enterprises are beginning to shut down, leading to a decline in demand [9]. 4. Recommendations for Individual Stocks - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [12]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining [12]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are influenced by rising market risk aversion due to political changes in the UK and weak employment data expectations in the US, alongside a significant probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June [5][12]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - On February 10, gold and silver experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping over 0.4% and briefly falling below $5000 per ounce, while silver saw a decline of over 2% [6][12]. - On February 9, both gold and silver generally closed higher, indicating recent upward trends prior to the current downturn [3][8]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - On February 9, all three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.04% at 50135.87 points, the S&P 500 rising 0.47% to 6964.82 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.9% to 23238.67 points [3][8]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.12%, with individual stocks like Wanwu Xingsheng and Century Interconnect gaining over 6%, while stocks like New Oriental and Li Auto saw declines of over 3% [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - Market risk aversion is heightened due to expectations of weak US employment data and political instability in the UK, which has led to increased prices in international precious metal futures [5][12]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that current interest rates are appropriate and acknowledged some pressure signs in the job market, while the National Economic Council Director Hassett projected a decline in US job growth numbers in the coming months without indicating economic weakness [12]. - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 32.4%, and by June, it exceeds 50% [12].

| く 白 | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 64565.91 651.86 1.02% | | | | 资料 成分 | 资讯 相关基金 | | 月F | | 名称 | | 现价 | | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | | 413.715 | | | MSFT.O | | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | | 190.040 | | | NVDA.O | | | | | 脸书(META PLAT... | | 677.370 | | | META.O | | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | | 417.320 | | | TSLA.O | | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | | 324.400 | | | GOOG.O | | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | | 208.720 | | | AMZN.O | | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | | 274.620 | | | AAPL.O | | | | 芯片股延续强势，费城半导体指数上涨1.42%，超威半导体、博通等个股涨超3%，英伟达涨2 ...

当地时间2月9日，美股三大指数全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数创历史新高。美股大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨超1%，微软涨超3%。芯 片股多数上涨，超威半导体、博通涨超3%。 大宗商品方面，贵金属市场延续反弹趋势，其中伦敦现货黄金突破5000美元/盎司关口，盘中一度涨超2%，伦敦现货白银涨超7%。布伦特原油期货主力合 约涨超1%。 美股三大股指全线收涨 Wind数据显示，当地时间2月9日，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.04%，创历史新高；纳斯达克指数涨0.9%，标普500指数涨0.47%。 美股大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨1.02%。个股方面，微软涨超3%，英伟达、META涨超2%，特斯拉涨逾1%；苹果跌超1%。 芯片股多数上涨，费城半导体指数涨1.42%。个股方面，超威半导体、博通等涨超3%，应用材料涨超2%，台积电涨超1%。 中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.12%。个股方面，万物新生涨超6%，世纪互联、亚朵、阿特斯太阳能、大全新能源涨超5%。 欧洲三大股指全线上涨。截至收盘，法国CAC40指数涨0.6%，英国富时100指数涨0.16%，德国DAX指数涨1.19%。 截至北京 ...

Investors will get twin reports this week on employment and consumer prices. They'll help set the stage for when the Fed cuts interest rates this year — if it reduces them at all. ...

来源：滚动播报 （来源：经济参考报） 美国财长贝森特8日公开表示，预计美联储即使换帅也不会很快实施缩表。此番表态正逢美国劳动力市 场复苏脆弱和多位官员支持继续降息，业界因此预计，美联储官员更倾向在近期通过降息刺激就业市 场，而对通胀予以一定容忍度。 业界认为，美联储的缩表计划面临重重阻力，既可能遭遇美联储官员的反对，金融市场也会对此做出剧 烈反应。如果新提名的美联储主席沃什迅速缩减美联储资产负债表，则很可能会推高美国长期利率，与 美国总统特朗普"迅速降低借贷成本"的期望背道而驰。贝森特判断，在未来一年时间内，美联储将细致 观察市场状况，不会在降息背景下贸然缩表。公开数据显示，美联储已将因金融危机和疫情时期实施量 化宽松政策而扩张的资产负债表缩减了约2.4万亿美元。 而在各界关注的美联储降息节奏方面，由于此前就业数据不及预期，降息预期则骤然上升。 美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利日前表示，她判断美联储可能还需要进行一次或两次降息操作，以应对 劳动力市场的疲软状况。当前，劳动者处境艰难，原因是物价上涨侵蚀了工资收入，同时新增就业机会 稀缺。 戴利称，尽管物价稳定与充分就业（美联储两大目标）之间的风险看起来"相对平衡" ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2月9日晚间，黄金、白银直线飙涨。一方面，英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"；另一方面，美联储降息预期升 温。 黄金、白银，直线飙涨。截至发稿，现货黄金报5040.88美元/盎司，涨幅为1.5%；现货白银报81.601美 元/盎司，涨幅接近5%。国内期货夜盘开盘，沪金、沪银跟随国际市场高开。 一方面，市场预估美国即将发布疲软的就业报告，从而提高美联储降息预期。美国白宫国家经济委员会 主任哈塞特在接受CNBC采访时表示，预期就业数据会走低，但这不应引发恐慌。哈塞特此评论直接肯 定了美国就业数据疲软的事实，美元指数闻声大跌。 另一方面，英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"，影响该国金融市场。 据央视新闻，英国首相斯塔默的公关总监蒂姆·艾伦于当地时间2月9日辞职，这是24小时内首相办公室 第二位高级官员离职。在此之前，英国首相办公厅主任摩根·麦克斯威尼因英国前驻美国大使彼得·曼德 尔森涉爱泼斯坦案引咎辞职。 这场政治危机迅速蔓延至英国金融市场。英国富时100指数持续走弱，由红翻绿，截至发稿，跌幅为 0.26%；英镑兑欧元一度大跌0.5%，创1月22日以来最低水平；英国 ...

2月9日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金深度触底回升收取长下影线垂线形态，相对于前周的跳水倒垂形态， 有着相反的预期，这也暗示对于前周的倒垂看空回落，也有利空出尽的迹象，那么，对于后市来讲，后 市要么维持持续的震荡调整行情，要么再度走强攀升，刷新高点。所以，当下，耐心比交易更重要。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开于4792.00美元/盎司，先行跳水走低，录得当周低点4402.14美元，之后触 底回升，展现出一定的止跌转看涨的预期，但在反弹至周三时段录得当周高点5091.81美元后，未能持 稳突破阻力，多头有所获利了结，使得周四再度回落，周五又再度跌至周开盘价附近，但最终再度触底 回升买盘入场，令周线收于4960.86美元，周振幅689.67美元，相对于前周收盘价4865.11美元，收涨 95.75美元，涨幅1.97%。 影响上，受到前周的跳水卖盘压力，以及地缘局势的缓和，关税协议的达成，而先行跳水走低，但由于 缓和后的地缘局势又其摩擦，美联储理事米兰：今年需降息略高于一个百分点等，基本面有所转强，推 动金价触底回升走强； 之后，由于获利了结，地缘局势再反转缓和，芝商所继续上调黄金、白银期货保证金比例，阿根廷宣布 与特朗普 ...