国际金价再创历史新高。 万得数据显示，北京时间9月3日，COMEX黄金期货价格站上3600美元/盎司的历史关口。截至发稿前， 其价格为3607.6美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%。这是国际黄金期货价格连续第七个交易日上涨。 同日，招金黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、山东黄金等纷纷上涨；西部黄金涨停，报26.51元/股，市值为 242亿元。这是该股连续第三个交易日涨停。 业绩报告显示，西部黄金今年上半年实现营业收入50.3亿元，同比增长69.01%；归母净利润1.54亿元， 同比增长131.94%。 9月3日，国内黄金饰品价格也继续上涨。其中，周大福足金饰品价格1053元/克，比前一日上涨16元/ 克；老凤祥足金零售价1050元/克，比前一日上涨14元/克。 美联储本月降息预期升温以及各国央行持续强劲的增储需求，是推动近期黄金价格上涨的主要原因。 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上释放明确鸽派信号，市场因此对美联储9月份 降息的预期显著提升。同时，近期多位美联储官员也在发言中表态支持9月份降息25个基点，或暗示"美 联储可能很快将开始下调利率"，使得降息预期持续升温。 摩根士丹利报告显示，在美联储开启降 ...

美财长贝森特：不担心美元汇率，欧元强势源于欧洲财政扩张 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.4%，降息25个基点的概率为89.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点 的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为47.9%。 来源：新浪网 9月2日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1089，下调17.00点。 美联储9月降息概率为89.6% 美国财长贝森特周一表示，他并不担心美元相对于欧元的汇率地位，并指出由于欧洲财政扩张政策的影响，欧元理应保持强势。"在德国引领下，欧洲正在 实施大规模财政扩张，"贝森特在接受采访时表示，"市场．．．正在良好运转。" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market is strong with London gold price above $3500. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index shows contraction, and domestic gold ETF has capital inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold due to the increased probability of Fed rate - cut and the unchanged de - dollarization logic [2]. - **Silver**: It follows gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillates strongly. With the weakening of the US manufacturing PMI and the opening of the import window, it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract slightly declined. Supply is stable, demand is recovering, but inventory build - up suppresses the market. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the inventory inflection point [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply is affected by environmental protection, and demand is high. The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract rose. Supply has increased significantly, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract slightly declined. Supply is tightening, consumption is flat, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to trade within a range and go long on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply has increased, demand in some industries is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate weakly [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell. Supply growth is weakening, demand is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side changes [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Tin**: The price oscillates. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of future increases. It may follow the macro - trend and oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Inventory has increased, and supply - demand is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply and demand are neutral - strong with a slight weakening at the margin. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is expected to change, and demand has a game. Short - term US soybeans are strong, and the domestic market may oscillate. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [8]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract continued to rebound. Wheat substitution, increased supply, and lower costs suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price fell. International and domestic factors affect the market. It is recommended to short on the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price oscillated and fell. International and domestic market conditions are different. It is recommended to go long on dips within the 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton range [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand is increasing. It is recommended to be bullish on the medium - term and pay attention to production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract performed weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate [8]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the state has started a purchase and storage plan. It is recommended to wait and see as the spot price may stop falling and stabilize [9]. - **Apples**: The main contract price rose slightly. The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but there are expectations for late - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see as the market oscillates [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. Short - term oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply prices are rising, inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rose, but the Brent spread weakened. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and there is a large expected surplus in Q4. It is recommended to short on rallies [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is normal. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or short on styrene profit when the price rebounds [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicates a potential new upward trend for precious metals, with Morgan Stanley projecting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce for gold [1][7]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On September 2, London spot gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,508.49, marking a new historical high after a four-month consolidation period [2]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also hit record highs during the same trading session, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [2]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China also saw significant increases, with the main gold contract closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and the main silver contract at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Predictions - Multiple institutions highlight that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are the primary catalyst for the current gold price surge, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [3]. - The market is reacting to macroeconomic policies and political risks, with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's influence, further enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [4]. - Analysts predict that the breakout above $3,500 per ounce for gold could initiate a new upward trend, with silver prices expected to follow suit due to its industrial applications [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Notable investment firms are focusing on upstream resource sectors, including gold, copper, and aluminum, anticipating a weaker dollar and limited supply growth, which could enhance the profitability of quality companies [5]. - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as U.S. employment data and CPI, are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [7]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices will continue to reach new highs in the coming quarters, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and rising geopolitical risks [7].

人民币汇率：英镑暴跌 【行情回顾】上前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1476，较上一交易日跌 101 个基点，夜盘收报 7.1390。人民币对美元中间价报 7.1089，较上一交易日调贬 17 个 基点。 【重要资讯】1）市场对英国财政状况的忧虑等因素叠加，英国 30 年期国债收益率升至 1998 年以来的最高水平，英镑出现大幅下跌。2）特朗普：周三将就关税裁决召开紧急会 议。最快将于周三向最高法院提出上诉，若关税的上诉被驳回，将不得不撤回关税。如果 关税裁决不利，将不得不退还数万亿美元。将督促最高法院加快裁决。3）美国 8 月 ISM 制造业指数从 7 月的 48 微升至 48.7，低于市场预期的 49，连续六个月低于荣枯线。新订 单指数升至 51.4，自今年年初以来首次扩张。但产出指数下滑 3.6 点至 47.8，重新跌入收 缩区间。 【核心逻辑】前期我们谈到当前美元兑人民币即期汇率的核心矛盾，并非方向选择层面， 而是时间维度下的节奏把控问题，关键变量在于央行对于人民币相对于美元的升值启动的 具体时点与推进过程中的速度把控。目前来看，美元兑人民币中间价暂时稳定在 7.10 附近， 那 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 03 日 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,858.13 | -0.45% | | 深圳成指 | 12,553.84 | -2.14% | | 沪深 300 | 4,490.45 | -0.74% | | 上证 50 | 2,992.88 | 0.39% | | 中证 500 | 6,961.69 | -2.09% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 42,310.49 | 0.29% | | 道琼指数 | 45,295.81 | #DIV/0! | | 标普 500 | 6,415.54 | #DIV/0! | | 纳斯达克 | 21,279.63 | #DIV/0! | | 美元指数 | 98.3208 | 0.63% | | 人民币 | 7.1476 | 0.20% | | 纽约黄金 | 3,599.50 | #DIV/0! | | WTI 原油 | 65.59 | #DIV/0! | | LME 铜 | 10,013.50 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].

黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数从A股和港股市场中选取50只 涉及黄金采掘、冶炼及销售等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖黄金全产业链。指数成分股兼具 中小市值特征与龙头效应，行业集中度较高，旨在反映黄金产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，近期，美联储降息交易升温，叠加宏观及地缘政治不确定性，金价创下新高。市场除押 注9月美联储降息之外，更预期美联储的独立性在特朗普政府近期的一系列干涉下受到动摇，这将构成 对金价的中长期支撑。此前，在美国4月对等关税降温后，金价延续高位震荡至今， ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.64% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.99%, with major tech stocks collectively increasing, including JD.com up nearly 3%, Baidu up 2.3%, Xiaomi up nearly 2%, Alibaba up over 1%, and Kuaishou up 0.77% [1] - Spot gold reached a new high of $3,547 per ounce, leading to strong performance in gold stocks, with Tongguan Gold and Chifeng Gold rising over 5% [1] - Automotive stocks generally rose, with NIO and Li Auto both increasing over 3% [1] Market Sentiment and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a fourth consecutive month of gains in August, driven by southbound capital inflows, improved market sentiment, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2][3] - There is a strong net inflow of southbound capital, and external funding conditions are improving, although concerns about the fundamentals remain [3] - The potential for foreign capital to return to Hong Kong stocks is heightened under the Fed's anticipated rate cut, particularly favoring technology and financial sectors [3] Investment Opportunities - The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks is relatively strong, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals being relatively scarce [3] - Despite recent gains, the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low, suggesting a favorable long-term investment outlook [3] - The deepening of the Hong Kong listing system reform is expected to enhance asset quality and liquidity in the market [4] Company News - WuXi AppTec (02268) plans to place 23 million shares to raise HKD 1.31 billion, with a placement price of HKD 58.85 per share [6] - NIO (09866) reported Q2 automotive sales of RMB 16.1361 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with revenue of approximately RMB 19.009 billion, up 9% year-on-year [6] - NIO's Q3 revenue guidance is set between RMB 21.81 billion and RMB 22.88 billion, marking a historical high [6]

智通财经APP注意到，黄金延续连续六天的涨势，刷新历史最高纪录。由于美国降息前景增强了黄金的吸引力，加之股市和债市抛售促使交易员寻求避险， 贵金属需求持续攀升。 周三亚洲市场开盘时，现货黄金价格上涨0.4%，至每盎司3546.96美元，略高于周二创下的历史高点。在过去六个交易日中，金价累计上涨5%，支撑因素包 括市场对美联储未来政策的重新担忧、发达国家预算问题引发的避险需求升温。 今年以来黄金涨幅超过三分之一，成为表现最佳的主要大宗商品之一。近期上涨动力源于市场预期美联储本月将降息——此前美联储主席鲍威尔已谨慎地为 降息打开大门。本周五将公布的美国关键就业报告很可能进一步显示劳动力市场日益疲软，这为降息提供了更多依据。低利率环境通常有利于无息资产黄金 的表现。 过去三年间，黄金和白银价格均上涨逾一倍。地缘政治、经济和全球贸易领域日益增长的风险，推动了对这些传统避险资产的需求。 今年特朗普总统对美联储的抨击升级，加剧了市场对央行独立性受威胁的担忧。 市场正在等待一项具有里程碑意义的裁决，以确定特朗普是否有合法理由将美联储理事丽莎·库克免职。若该举动被认定合法，总统将可任命一位偏鸽派的 官员接替其职位。 投资者还 ...