Domestic Macro Policy - The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties, focusing on long-term growth and stability[2] - Recent policies aim to enhance agricultural technology innovation and support urban renewal projects through increased central budget investments and special bonds[3] - A comprehensive financial policy package was announced, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% cut in policy interest rates, alongside an increase of CNY 300 billion in technology innovation loans[17] Consumption and Financial Regulation - Provinces are issuing consumption vouchers exceeding CNY 1 billion, targeting integrated domestic and foreign trade, and enhancing consumer potential through various channels[19] - Financial regulatory bodies are reinforcing support for capital markets, including a commitment to stabilize the market and encourage long-term investments, with a recent approval of CNY 600 billion for insurance fund investments[21] Trade Relations - Recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction of 91% in tariffs, with both sides agreeing to suspend additional tariffs for 90 days[24] - The UK and US have reached a trade agreement, with the UK making concessions on agricultural imports in exchange for reduced tariffs on automotive exports[28] Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and inflation risks[27] - Global trade policies are evolving, with significant agreements being reached between the US and other nations, including India and Qatar, enhancing economic cooperation[29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations and their implications for the global economy, particularly focusing on the potential for economic recovery and investment opportunities in various sectors. Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, alleviating extreme scenarios in bilateral trade and leading to a short-term boost in exports [1][8][9] - The effective tariff rate for the US has decreased from 23% to 13%, and for China, it has dropped to 31.8%, which is expected to lower recession risks in the US economy [8][9] - High-frequency shipping data indicates a recovery trend, suggesting a potential surge in exports from China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on the US market [20][21] Group 2: Economic Growth Drivers - The economic growth in early 2025 has been primarily driven by exports and investments in new sectors, with Q1 export delivery value increasing by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Investment in equipment and appliances saw quarterly growth rates of 19.0% and 19.3%, respectively, contributing to economic stability [1] - Despite the positive export outlook, challenges remain in real estate, consumer spending, local investment, and price stability, which need to be addressed for sustained growth [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following the trade talks, global stock markets exhibited a "risk-on" sentiment, with the Nasdaq leading asset classes, and the VIX index falling below 20 [4][5] - A-shares shifted focus to fundamental recovery expectations, policy observation, and export logic, with the overall market showing resilience after previous tariff-related declines [7] - The performance of various sectors varied, with over 60% of industries recording positive returns, particularly in beauty care, non-banking financials, and automotive sectors [7] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the need for adjustments in monetary policy frameworks to address higher inflation volatility and supply shocks, as indicated by recent comments from the Federal Reserve [10][11] - The anticipated changes in the Fed's inflation targeting strategy may influence future economic conditions and investment strategies [11] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - Industries with high export dependence on the US, such as electronics and automotive parts, are expected to benefit from the short-term "export rush" following tariff reductions [21] - The article notes that industrial product prices are stabilizing, while food prices are experiencing mixed trends, indicating a complex inflationary environment [22] Group 6: Infrastructure and Investment Trends - The government is increasing support for urban renewal projects, which may enhance infrastructure investment and stimulate economic activity [23][24] - Recent data shows improvements in funding availability for construction projects, particularly in non-residential sectors, indicating a positive trend for infrastructure development [18]

Group 1: Foreign Investment and Investment Strategies - The global economic landscape is complex and fragmented, impacting growth and recovery, yet China remains open to foreign investment, emphasizing its unique market advantages such as a large scale and rich human capital [2][3] - Research indicates a significant positive correlation between a country's capital market openness and economic growth, with foreign institutional investors providing long-term capital that alleviates financing challenges for domestic companies, particularly in tech sectors [3] - Companies are encouraged to enhance their core competencies through technological innovation and cost reduction while diversifying their markets to mitigate external uncertainties, highlighting a dual approach of attracting foreign investment and expanding overseas [4] Group 2: Domestic Circulation and Internal Demand Activation - The new development strategy emphasizes domestic circulation as the mainstay, but faces structural challenges such as local protectionism and the need for a unified national market [5] - The government must assess the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate internal demand, especially in light of the challenges faced by the private sector regarding financing and a stable business environment [5][6] - Short-term issues include insufficient domestic demand, while long-term challenges focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrades, necessitating policy support and improvements in the financial system to enhance self-sufficiency in critical technologies [6]

2025 年 05 月 18 日 做强国内大循环 宏观研究团队 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  | 国内宏观政策：金融政策标志"以我为主"政策启幕 | 过去两周（5 月 4 日-5 月 18 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强强调， 要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环 上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性。 基建与产业方面, 近两周政策聚焦加快提升农业科技创新体系整体效能；工信部 召开部分省份工业经济运行座谈会，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变 化的不确定性；科技部推动加快构建科技金融体制；中办、国办印发《关于持续 推进城市更新行动的意见》，提出八方面主要任务，其中包括：推进城镇老旧小 区整治改造，开展完整社区建设，推进老旧街区、老旧厂区、城中村等更新改 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the uncertainties brought by the US-China tariff conflict, the Chinese market remains highly attractive to global capital due to its political stability, low corporate valuations, large market size, and human capital reserves [1][2] - China is advancing institutional opening and will keep its doors open for foreign investment, indicating a shift away from the previous state of free trade and globalization, with trade barriers and conflicts likely to persist in the future [1][2] - Companies are encouraged to innovate technologically, reduce costs, and diversify their markets to lessen dependence on the US and other single markets, while also pursuing outbound investments [1][2] Group 2 - The "going out" strategy is essential for Chinese companies to grow and strengthen their global competitiveness, despite the challenges posed by political, legal, and cultural factors [2] - Support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) affected by tariffs should combine short-term relief measures, such as tax reductions and loan extensions, with long-term strategies focused on technological innovation and market diversification [2] - To enhance domestic circulation, three major obstacles need to be addressed: breaking local protectionism, strengthening policy effectiveness assessments, and optimizing the development environment for the private economy [2][3] Group 3 - There is a need to further open financial and capital markets, as this will create a positive feedback loop with technological innovation, attracting foreign capital that can enhance corporate governance and provide long-term support for innovation [3] - The manufacturing sector is already fully open, and the next focus should be on the systematic opening of the service sector, with a caution to proceed in an orderly manner [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to unexpected outcomes, with both sides agreeing to significant tariff reductions, creating a temporary window of opportunity for manufacturers and exporters [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The US has canceled 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modified 34% of additional tariffs, with 24% of these tariffs suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [2]. - China has reciprocated by canceling 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods and suspending 24% of the 34% retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, keeping 10% in place [2]. - The negotiations have sparked a "rush to export," raising concerns about shipping capacity amid increased order expectations [2]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Strategy - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties, aiming for stable and high-quality economic growth [4]. - The focus on "dual circulation" aims to reduce reliance on foreign trade and enhance the domestic market, which has become increasingly relevant given the current international climate [4]. - Key strategies include efficient resource allocation, deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, and ensuring a balanced supply-demand dynamic [5]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The government plans to support foreign trade enterprises while boosting domestic consumption and investment to stabilize employment [5]. - The long-term goal is to establish China as the largest consumer market globally, despite challenges ahead [5]. - Changes in expectations for export-oriented manufacturers are anticipated as the focus shifts towards enhancing domestic consumption capabilities [5].

做强国内大循环，关键是建立自主完备的产业链供应链，补上中国产业链供应链短板弱项， 这样才能避免受各种"卡脖子"风险，继续保持国内生产与消费的循环畅通。与此同时，通过 科技创新与产业创新，加强核心技术和前沿技术攻关，不断提升传统产业优势与新兴产业的 全球竞争力，满足市场对于供给侧高质量的升级需求。 畅通国民经济循环关键是扩大内需，培育完整内需体系，增强国内大循环需求牵引力。多年 以 来 ， 我 国 将 实 施 扩 大 内 需 战 略 同 深 化 供 给 侧 结 构 性 改 革 有 机 结 合 起 来 ， 供 需 两 端 同 时 发 力、协调配合，形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡，进而实现国民经济 良性循环。 当前，与供给侧相比，我国主要面对社会总需求不足的问题，供需存在一定的失衡。而总需 求不足主要体现在消费存在短板，要使内需成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚，做强国内 大循环，就必须着重以消费提振畅通经济循环，以消费升级引领产业升级。 大力提振消费，促进国内大循环，首先要扩大就业，促进居民增收减负；其次，要将更多资 金资源"投资于人"，服务于民生，提高社会保障水平。根据近日央行发布的第一季度货币 ...

其他热点还有：财政发力支撑社融增速抬升，特朗普发布"药品降价"行政令 中美会谈取得实质性进展，关税调整正式实施 自北京时间14日12时01分（美东时间14日0时01分）起，中美同时调整对对方商品加征关税措施。 美方还同时下调或撤销对中国小额包裹（包括香港特别行政区小额包裹）加征的关税，将国际邮件从价 税率由120%下调至54%，撤销原定于6月1日起将从量税由每件100美元调增为200美元的措施。 当地时间12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中 方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关 税；双方各自保留10％的关税。同时，中美双方建立经贸磋商机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。 商务部新闻发言人表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平。这一举措符 合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。希望美方以这次会谈为基础，与中方 继续相向而行，彻底纠正单边加税的错误做法，不断加强互利合作，维护中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可 持续发展，共同为世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性。 【点评】新华时评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council emphasizes the importance of strengthening the domestic circulation to enhance economic stability and competitiveness in the face of global uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Key Aspects of Strengthening Domestic Circulation - The focus on efficient allocation of resources and factors, aiming to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation, while promoting a unified national market [2][3] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation, with an emphasis on tackling key core technologies and promoting the industrial application of scientific achievements [2][4] - The need for a self-sufficient and complete industrial and supply chain, enhancing regional cooperation and specialization to improve resilience in industrial development [2][4] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - The dynamic balance between supply and demand is crucial, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and addressing consumption shortfalls to lead industrial upgrades [2][5] - The importance of a smooth economic circulation, which includes breaking down market barriers and reducing institutional transaction costs to facilitate resource allocation [5] - The role of leading enterprises in driving collaboration among small and medium-sized enterprises to enhance the overall stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report On May 15, the liquidity tightened, the bond market continued to correct, the main indices of the convertible bond market declined following the equity market, most convertible bond issues fell, the yields of US Treasury bonds across all maturities generally dropped significantly, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market News Domestic News - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council encourage financial institutions to participate in urban renewal and promote eligible projects to issue REITs, asset - backed securities, and corporate credit bonds [3]. - The first comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 took effect, releasing about 1 trillion yuan in long - term liquidity [4]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the domestic cycle to promote stable and long - term economic development [4]. - The CSRC held the "5·15 National Investor Protection Publicity Day" event and plans to take multiple measures to boost investor confidence [5]. - The central bank and other departments plan to enrich the product types of the "Swap Connect" [6]. - Four departments jointly held a science and technology finance work exchange and promotion meeting, emphasizing support for scientific and technological innovation [7]. - The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a guiding opinion to support the high - quality development of the capital market [8]. International News - Powell said the Fed is re - evaluating key parts of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise [9]. - US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, but consumer spending showed signs of weakness [10]. Commodities - International crude oil futures prices and natural gas prices fell on May 15. WTI June crude futures dropped 2.42% to $61.62/barrel, Brent July crude futures fell 2.36% to $64.53/barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 1.66% to $3241.10/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices dropped 2.86% to $3.366/ounce [12]. Fundamentals Open Market Operations On May 15, the central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 1586 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1250 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net capital withdrawal was 2191 billion yuan [14]. Funding Rates On May 15, despite the reserve requirement ratio cut, the liquidity tightened due to continuous net capital withdrawal by the central bank and large government bond payments. DR001 rose 0.24bp to 1.412%, and DR007 rose 0.74bp to 1.525% [15]. Bond Market Dynamics Interest - Rate Bonds - The yields of spot bonds: On May 15, affected by tightened liquidity and rumors about the central bank's non - conduct of outright reverse repurchases, the bond market continued to correct. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250004 rose 0.10bp to 1.6700%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250205 rose 0.55bp to 1.7440% [18]. - Bond tendering: Details of the tendering results of various bonds on May 15 are provided, including the term, issuance scale, winning bid yield, and other information [20]. Credit Bonds - Secondary market trading anomalies: On May 15, the trading price of one industrial bond ("H1 碧地 02") and one urban investment bond ("20 豫辉债") deviated by more than 10%, falling more than 16% and 19% respectively [21][22]. - Credit bond events: Multiple companies had announcements related to bond - holder meetings, rating adjustments, and issuance cancellations [24]. Convertible Bonds - Equity and convertible bond indices: On May 15, the three major A - share indices fell, and the main convertible bond indices also declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.44%, 0.38%, and 0.52% respectively [24]. - Convertible bond tracking: Some convertible bonds announced proposals for downward adjustment of conversion prices, non - adjustment of conversion prices, or potential early redemption conditions [28]. Overseas Bond Markets - US bond market: On May 15, the yields of US Treasury bonds across all maturities generally dropped significantly. The 2 - year yield fell 9bp to 3.96%, and the 10 - year yield fell 8bp to 4.45%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds widened [27][28]. - European bond market: The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of German 10 - year government bonds fell 6bp to 2.63%, while that of French 10 - year government bonds rose 2bp [31]. - Daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds (as of the close on May 14): Information on the daily price changes, including credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, and yields, is provided [33].