9月29日，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超表示，当前经济运行依然面临不少风险 挑战，外部环境仍然复杂严峻，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。下一步，国家发展改革委将持续 发力、适时加力实施宏观政策。同时，将持续加强经济监测预测预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变 化及时推出。随着各项政策效应充分释放，有信心继续保持经济平稳健康发展，有信心实现全年目标任 务。 ...

发改委：从需求侧看，政策效能持续显现，展现出较强的韧性和抗压能力。在消费方面，以旧换新相关零售额继续保持较快增长。不过，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。下一步将持续发力，适时加力实施宏观政策。同时也将持续加强经济的监测、预测、预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变化及时推出。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均震荡整理，小幅上涨。从宏观政策的角度看，8 月经济数据表现偏弱说 明内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，9 月美联储启动降息使得人民币汇率端压力大大减小，未来货币政 策偏宽松的可能性较高，对国债期货下方具有较强支撑。不过短期内政策利率下降的可能性不高，需 要等待后续的政策出台契机，短期内降息预期消退，国债期货反弹动能有所不足。总的来说，短期内 上行动能与下行空间均较为有限，预计短期内国债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern, pessimistic market sentiment, and lackluster winter storage [1][2]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, supported by the marginal improvement of the supply - demand pattern, the increase in downstream processing enterprise开工率, and the depletion of social inventory due to pre - holiday stocking [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content For成材 - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel producers will suspend production from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills has suspended production on January 5th, and most others will suspend production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week but a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Price Movement**: The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low recently. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity is moving down, and this year's winter storage is lackluster, providing little price support [2]. For铝锭 - **Macro Environment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the US economy grew faster in the second quarter than previously expected. Traders believe the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next meeting is 89.8%, lower than nearly 92% a week ago [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of the aluminum market has increased slightly due to the ramping up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% last week [2]. - **Downstream Performance**: The aluminum cable sector was the main driving force, with the operating rate increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors also increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. However, the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry was facing challenges such as export decline and low - end product competition [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 46,000 tons from last Monday [2]. - **Price Outlook**: With the macro - interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled and approaching the peak consumption season, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and holiday risks [3].

Core Insights - The profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China have shown significant improvement due to macroeconomic policies, the advancement of a unified national market, and a low base effect from the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Profit Improvement - From January to August, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises shifted from a year-on-year decline of 1.7% in July to a growth of 0.9% [1] - In August alone, profits experienced a notable increase of 20.4%, reversing a 1.5% decline in July [1] - The revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, maintaining stability [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.4% from January to August, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 9.4%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points [2] - The mining sector experienced a decline of 30.6%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 1.0 percentage point [2] Group 3: Industry Contributions - The equipment manufacturing sector was a significant contributor, with profits growing by 7.2% from January to August, accounting for a 2.5 percentage point increase in overall industrial profits [2] - In the raw materials manufacturing sector, profits increased by 22.1%, accelerating by 10.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector transitioned from a 2.2% decline to a 1.4% profit growth, driven by stable demand and policies aimed at boosting consumption [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - In August, the cost per hundred yuan of revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 0.20 yuan year-on-year, marking the first decline since July 2024 [3] - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises in August was 5.83%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to stabilize the capital market and enhance the effectiveness of financial measures [2][3] - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3] - The PBOC plans to strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the market interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [2][3] Group 2 - In August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises turned from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month to a growth of 20.4%, indicating a positive impact from macro policies and a low base effect from the previous year [3] - The cumulative profit for the first eight months of the year showed a slight increase of 0.9% compared to the same period last year, with improvements across different scales of enterprises [3] Group 3 - Multiple sectors, including non-ferrous metals, artificial intelligence in transportation, and digital economy, received policy support from various government departments [4][5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released plans to enhance growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on high-end product applications and avoiding low-level redundant construction [4] - The government is also promoting the development of digital economy enterprises and supporting their listing and financing [5] Group 4 - The PBOC, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly announced support for foreign institutional investors to conduct bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market [6] - This initiative aims to enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated bonds and facilitate the interconnection of onshore and offshore financial markets [6] Group 5 - The IPO application of Moore Threads has been approved, signaling a significant support for technology innovation enterprises in the capital market [7] - Moore Threads, known for its GPU products, is positioned to become the first domestic GPU stock if successfully listed [7] Group 6 - Zhongji Xuchuang announced a plan for its major shareholder to reduce holdings by up to 0.49% through block trading, while also distributing cash dividends to shareholders [8] - The company plans to invest in an industry fund, indicating ongoing strategic financial maneuvers [8] Group 7 - Two A-share companies, Meichen Technology and Xinhua Jin, are set to be suspended from trading due to financial discrepancies and related issues, highlighting regulatory scrutiny in the market [9] - Additionally, Fuhuang Steel Structure is under investigation for information disclosure violations, reflecting ongoing regulatory challenges in the industry [10] Group 8 - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the PMI monthly report, with market attention on whether the index can return to the expansion zone after recording 49.4 in August [11] - The upcoming data releases and external economic factors, such as the potential U.S. government shutdown, are critical for market sentiment and investment strategies [11]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2 - Report's Core View - This week, the bond market declined overall. At the beginning of the week, the three departments' press conference did not release further easing signals, and the market's expectations were disappointed. After Wednesday, as institutions bought long - term treasury bonds at low prices and the central bank resumed 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, the market gradually stabilized and rebounded. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates first rose and then fell due to the end - of - quarter factor, and the central bank carried out net MLF and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity [3] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Aspect - **Policy**: From August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The 24% tariff between China and the US will be suspended for 90 days from August 12. The government emphasizes measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption and investment, and implement more proactive macro - policies [1] - **Inflation**: In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1] Capital Aspect - **Finance**: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed. The RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan in the first eight months, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. The growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly [2] - **Central Bank**: On September 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. This week, the central bank conducted net MLF operations of 30 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations of 90 billion yuan [2][3] - **Money Market**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.53%, and 1.71% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] Market Aspect - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.34 yuan, 105.54 yuan, 107.68 yuan, and 114.19 yuan respectively. The weekly fluctuations were - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.27%, and - 0.82% respectively [2] - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.54 yuan respectively [2] Strategy Aspect - **Single - side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the basis spread rebound of TL2512 [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices have basically returned to the fundamental logic, with high inventories and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, the eleven - week consecutive decline in inventory has ended, and accumulation has begun. The peak season is lackluster, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. With weakening cost support at the raw material end, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis of Nickel - **Price**: This week, the price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 121,380 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 120 yuan/ton from the opening price on Monday. The weekly price fluctuation range was 120,670 - 123,550 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.39%. LME nickel prices slightly declined to 15,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. In the spot market, the latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium over the SHFE 2510 contract remained unchanged from last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area decreased by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [1]. - **Macro**: At the beginning of the week, cautious remarks from Fed officials on the prospect of interest rate cuts strengthened the US dollar, and the unchanged LPR in China reduced market risk appetite. Subsequently, the central bank's liquidity injection and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts warmed up the sentiment in the base metals sector, but the strong US economic data caused a rebound in the US dollar and a retreat of funds [2]. - **Supply**: In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and the new typhoon "Boloiyu" was expected to affect local mine shipments. In Indonesia, although the supply of nickel ore was loose, there were frequent disturbances. In terms of refined nickel, China's refined nickel output in August 2025 was 36,695 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 29.62% [2]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 37,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.66% and a year - on - year increase of 81.16%. However, the overall increase in consumption was less than that on the supply side [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production methods of electrowon nickel varied. For example, the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel was 117,171 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3.20%, while the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel was 136,583 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 11.20% [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons to 29,008 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 230,124 tons, and China's (including bonded areas) refined nickel inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 40,440 tons [3]. Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: Adopt the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - to - long - term - Options: None [4] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel - **Price**: This week, the main stainless steel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 12,840 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from last week. The spot procurement sentiment was frustrated, and the pre - holiday procurement demand did not appear as expected [4]. - **Macro**: The central bank's liquidity injection boosted market risk appetite, but the Fed's internal differences after the rate cut and the approaching National Day holiday led to a decline in market trading activity [5]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of stainless steel increased month - on - month. The output of the 200 - series increased by 8.97% month - on - month, the 300 - series increased by 2.44% month - on - month, and the 400 - series decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak consumption season effect did not appear. Downstream terminals were cautious in purchasing. Although real - estate sales increased year - on - year, new construction areas decreased year - on - year, and the demand in the automotive retail sector declined [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel ended its continuous rise since July and slightly declined, while the price of high - carbon ferro - chrome slightly increased but lacked further upward momentum [6]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country increased week - on - week, ending the eleven - week consecutive decline [6]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant recovery in the profits of industrial enterprises in August, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, reversing a previous decline of 1.5% in July. This shift has led to a cumulative profit growth of 0.9% from January to August, compared to a decline of 1.7% in the previous month [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Profit Recovery - The profit of industrial enterprises has shown a notable improvement, with the cumulative profit from January to August reversing a continuous decline since May, marking a growth of 0.9% [2][3]. - In August, the profit growth was particularly strong, with a two-digit increase of 20.4%, compared to a decline of 1.5% in July [3]. Revenue and Cost Dynamics - In August, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9%, accelerating by 1.0 percentage point from July. Additionally, the cost per hundred yuan of operating revenue decreased by 0.20 yuan, marking the first year-on-year decrease since July 2024 [3]. Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector saw a profit growth of 7.4% from January to August, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector grew by 9.4%. In contrast, the mining sector experienced a decline of 30.6%, although the rate of decline narrowed by 1.0 percentage point [3]. - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed significantly to overall profit growth, with a 7.2% increase, accounting for a 2.5 percentage point boost to total industrial profits [5]. Specific Industry Insights - The steel industry turned a profit with a total profit of 83.7 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous industry saw a profit increase of 12.7% [6]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector also showed recovery, with profits shifting from a 2.2% decline to a 1.4% increase, driven by strong performance in the beverage and agricultural sectors [6]. Enterprise Size and Type - Profits improved across different enterprise sizes, with medium and small enterprises seeing year-on-year profit growth of 2.7% and 1.5%, respectively. Large enterprises experienced a reduced decline [7][8]. - Private enterprises outperformed the average, with a profit growth of 3.3%, which is 2.4 percentage points higher than the overall industrial average [8]. Policy Support - Recent policies in various regions, such as the Shanghai Private Economy Promotion Regulation, aim to enhance the competitive environment for private enterprises, indicating a supportive framework for economic growth [8].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial profit growth in China has turned positive in the first eight months of the year, reversing a declining trend since May, driven by macroeconomic policies and low base effects from the previous year [2] Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - From January to August, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year, compared to a 1.7% decline in the first seven months [2] - In August alone, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises saw a significant increase of 20.4%, recovering from a 1.5% decline in July [2] - The chief statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics noted that the recovery in profits was supported by effective macro policies and the deepening of a unified national market [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth - The revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year from January to August, maintaining the same growth rate as in the first seven months [4] - In August, industrial revenue increased by 1.9%, accelerating by 1.0 percentage point compared to July [4] - The manufacturing sector experienced a growth of 7.4%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 9.4% [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector played a crucial role, with profits increasing by 7.2% from January to August, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [4] - The raw materials manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 22.1%, significantly accelerating from the previous month, with the steel industry turning profitable with total profits of 83.7 billion [4] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector also showed improvement, with profits turning from a 2.2% decline in the first seven months to a 1.4% increase in the first eight months [5] Group 4: Profit Improvement by Enterprise Size - Profits of medium and small-sized enterprises increased by 2.7% and 1.5% respectively, showing improvement compared to the first seven months [6] - Private enterprises experienced a profit growth of 3.3%, surpassing the average growth rate of large-scale industrial enterprises by 2.4 percentage points [6] - The cost situation for large-scale industrial enterprises improved, with costs per 100 yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.20 yuan, marking the first year-on-year decrease since July 2024 [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a continued moderate recovery in industrial profits, supported by the normalization of supply and demand dynamics and improved market competition [7] - The policy emphasis on sustained efforts and timely adjustments is anticipated to bolster profit quality and support ongoing recovery [7]