Core Points - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, focusing on the work report and the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [1] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be timely and effective, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption while fostering new growth points in service consumption [2][6] Fiscal Policy - The meeting called for accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund usage efficiency [1][2] - The total new deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long-term special bonds for the year amount to 11.86 trillion yuan, with significant progress in issuance by mid-year [5] - The focus of fiscal policy will be on government bond issuance and usage, with an expected acceleration in the pace of issuance [3][4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone, with potential for further liquidity injections through tools like reverse repos and MLF [4] - The emphasis will be on promoting a decline in overall financing costs and supporting key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4][5] - Structural monetary policy tools will continue to play a targeted role in supporting specific sectors [4] Consumption and Investment - The meeting outlined three key areas to effectively release domestic demand potential, including implementing actions to boost consumption and expanding effective investment [6][7] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [6] - There is a need to stimulate service consumption, which is seen as a critical area for economic growth and job stability [7][8] Recommendations for Service Consumption - Suggestions include shifting "old-for-new" policies from product subsidies to service consumption subsidies, optimizing rest and vacation systems, and addressing educational issues for migrant workers' children [8] - Emphasis on public investment to improve service quality and supply, particularly in education, healthcare, and entertainment sectors [8] - The need for a supportive policy environment to enhance consumer protection and create a safe consumption atmosphere [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies to support high-quality development in China, particularly in preparation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of effective domestic demand stimulation, with a focus on consumer spending and investment in public services, including a notable budget allocation of approximately 90 billion yuan for a new childcare subsidy program [2][3] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is underscored, with a call for high-level openness and support for foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of recent US-China trade discussions [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in focus towards urban renewal as a new policy goal, alongside measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [3][4] - The necessity for deepening reforms is reiterated, with an emphasis on fostering technological innovation and developing new competitive industries to enhance economic resilience [4][6] - The report outlines the performance of various provinces in terms of GDP growth, noting that several regions have exceeded their growth targets for the first half of 2025, indicating a positive economic trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely enhancements to address current economic challenges and ensure stable growth [1][7]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting calls for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [1][7]. - There is a focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency to support economic recovery [1][7]. - The concept of "flexibility and foresight" in macroeconomic policy is introduced, indicating that policies should be stable yet adaptable to changing circumstances [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Challenges - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, supported by consumption policies and investment from special bonds [4]. - The second quarter growth rate was 5.2%, showing resilience compared to the previous year, where growth rates declined significantly [4]. - However, challenges remain, including potential consumption declines due to high base effects and real estate market instability [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Future Directions - The meeting outlines the need for continuous policy efforts and the possibility of further policy enhancements in response to economic conditions [8][9]. - Specific policy tools are suggested, including expanding fiscal spending, timely support for affected industries, and promoting consumption through subsidies [10][11][12]. - The potential establishment of a "real estate stability fund" is proposed to alleviate liquidity pressures on real estate companies [13]. Group 4: Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterates the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and reducing overall financing costs in the economy [14]. - There is an acknowledgment that while monetary policy remains supportive, the primary reliance for economic growth may shift towards fiscal expansion [14].

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's growth and the annual target[4] - The construction sector's GDP growth was only 0.7%, down from 4.8% in the previous year, indicating a shift towards new economic sectors like information technology[4] Policy Direction - The Politburo emphasized the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations[4] - A more proactive fiscal policy is required, with an acceleration in government bond issuance to enhance fund utilization efficiency[6] Fiscal Measures - In the first half of 2025, special bonds and long-term bonds totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.7 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, leaving approximately 1.3 trillion yuan unutilized[6] - The government plans to issue 3.8 trillion yuan in special bonds in the second half of the year to support fiscal spending[6] Consumption and Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting domestic consumption, particularly through service consumption, which has a significant multiplier effect on employment[5] - The government aims to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, focusing on both goods and services[5] Risk Management - The meeting called for proactive measures to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[12] - A total of 2.8 trillion yuan in debt for debt resolution has been issued this year, with 776.9 billion yuan in special new bonds issued to address corporate debt issues[13] Monetary Policy - The probability of significant monetary easing in Q3 is low, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs through structural monetary policy tools[17] - The average interest rate on new corporate loans and personal housing loans decreased by approximately 50 basis points and 60 basis points, respectively, in Q1[22] Trade and Exports - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in the first half of 2025, despite challenges from external demand[26] - The government plans to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, emphasizing support for affected export enterprises[27] Real Estate Policy - The meeting did not mention measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards urban renewal and quality development rather than expansion[33]

在今年二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大的情况下，中国经济表现好于预期。 除了上半年5.3%的国内生产总值(GDP)增速快于去年同期和全年，人流、物流、资金流都在改善。 一个突出例子是，上半年中国市场销售环比逐季增长，社会消费品零售总额达24.55万亿元人民币， 52%的经济增长由消费这架"主引擎"贡献。 政治局会议对此给予肯定，认为中国经济"展现强大活力和韧性"。会议提醒，要"用好发展机遇、潜力 和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"。 (经济观察)中央政治局定调下半年经济工作 传递多重有力信号 中新社北京7月30日电 题：中央政治局定调下半年经济工作 传递多重有力信号 中新社记者 王恩博 中国"十四五"规划将于今年底收官，下半年经济走势如何，既关乎完成全年发展目标，也关乎为又一个 五年画上圆满句号。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，传递多重有力信号。 ——经济顶压前行展现活力 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉分析称，中国经济的体量、韧性以及产业领域积累 的深厚基础、关联关系等，是当前经济稳健运行的强有力保障。加之经营主体的能力和本领在市场竞争 中不断提 ...

Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, reflecting strong vitality and resilience in the Chinese economy[8] - The meeting emphasized the need to "strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals," indicating a stronger policy determination for the second half of the year[8] Macro Policy Direction - The macro policy is characterized by continuity, flexibility, and foresight, with a focus on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in policy measures[8] - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," emphasizing the acceleration of government bond issuance and usage, similar to the directives from the April meeting[8] Short-term vs Long-term Policies - Short-term policies are increasingly aligning with long-term reform goals, focusing on principles rather than detailed implementation[8] - The meeting highlighted the importance of long-term planning and reform to navigate "intense international competition," indicating that short-term economic policies will support long-term transitions[8] Key Areas of Focus - The meeting identified six key areas for work deployment: expanding domestic demand, deepening reforms, increasing openness, preventing risks, ensuring people's livelihoods, and organizational leadership[15] - Specific measures include promoting service consumption, enhancing the attractiveness of domestic capital markets, and addressing capacity management in key industries[8] Risk Considerations - Risks include amplified volatility in the external economic environment and uncertainties in policy decisions based on changing external conditions[17] - The sustainability of domestic demand growth remains uncertain, particularly in the third quarter of 2025[17]

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢 基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策 工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏 观政策取向一致性。清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩表示，下半年 宏观政策将聚焦稳增长与调结构，根据经济运行情况适时加大政策力度。财政政策将持续加码，增加重 点领域支出，如城市更新、科技创新、产业升级等；货币政策方面，预计将继续保持适度宽松的货币环 境，可能会通过降低存款准备金率等方式，向市场注入更多流动性；将更多通过各项结构性货币政策工 具，与财政政策形成配合，支持科技创新和产业升级；同时，预计将加大力度提振消费，补贴政策将从 耐用消费品扩展至文旅、餐饮等服务消费领域，加大对居民消费的补贴力度，进一步激发市场活力。此 外，将进一步强化稳岗扩就业的各项措施，包括加大对高校毕业生、农民工等重点群体的就业帮扶力 度，开展职 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rhythm of macro - policies may change in the second half of the year. The downward trend of treasury bond yields remains the general direction. The equity market is expected to have a long - bull market. The core of bond market trading lies in controlling the rhythm of band trading, and it is maintained that the third quarter is the window for going long in the bond market in the second half of the year [1][7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 730 Politburo Meeting Six Key Points of Concern 1. **Affirming the achievements of economic development in the first half of the year and a potentially stable and improving external environment** - In the first two quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% and 5.2% year - on - year respectively, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. To achieve the 5% growth target, the GDP growth rate in the second half only needs to reach 4.7%, so the economic work pressure is relatively small [14]. - Compared with the April meeting, the external environment uncertainty has significantly decreased. The overall trend of the equal - tariff policy is clear, and Sino - US relations have continued to ease [15]. 2. **Macro - policies should be both continuous, stable and flexible** - Continuity and stability mean maintaining an actively expanding macro - policy to support the overall trend of the marginal improvement of the macro - economy [16]. - Flexibility and predictability aim to guide market expectations, and the possibility of policy discretion in the second half of the year may increase [16]. 3. **From "intensifying implementation" to "timely boosting", the policy rhythm may change** - In terms of rhythm, "timely boosting" reflects the difference in the macro - environment between April and July, and the flexibility of macro - policies will increase. The policy strength depends on the economic operation [18]. - In terms of quality, from "making full use" to "implementing in detail", the policy will shift from "expanding quantity" to "improving quality". Fiscal policy focuses on improving capital use efficiency, and monetary policy aims to promote the decline of social comprehensive financing costs [18][19]. 4. **Defining three major anti - involution tasks** - The tasks are to "govern the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, promote the capacity governance of key industries, and standardize local investment promotion behaviors". The policy determination of anti - involution should not be underestimated [4][20]. 5. **More positive statements about the capital market** - The meeting proposed to "enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidate the momentum of the capital market's recovery and improvement". The equity market is expected to have a long - bull market [5][21]. 6. **Focusing on urban renewal in the real estate field** - The meeting only mentioned "implementing the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and carrying out high - quality urban renewal". The real estate market may still need further policy support [6][22]. Mapping to the Bond Market - In the process of promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs, the downward trend of treasury bond yields remains the general direction. With the increase in macro - policy flexibility, bond market fluctuations may expand. The core of bond market trading in the second half of the year lies in controlling the rhythm of band trading, and it is maintained that the third quarter is the window for going long in the bond market in the second half of the year [7][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Although China's economic fundamentals were still under pressure in June, financial data showed that the effects of loose monetary policy had emerged and might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market. However, after the Politburo meeting, without any unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide - range shock. It was recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) closed at 4136.4, up 1.8; IF sub - main contract (2508) closed at 4147.0, up 1.6. IH main contract (2509) closed at 2820.0, up 7.8; IH sub - main contract (2508) closed at 2821.4, up 9.0. IC main contract (2509) closed at 6215.4, down 26.2; IC sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6271.2, down 26.8. IM main contract (2509) closed at 6604.2, down 28.8; IM sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6675.6, down 29.8 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1325.6, down 14.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2124.2, down 40.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread was 404.4, down 8.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3449.8, down 55.4. IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2528.6, down 49.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3854.2, down 64.2 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 41.8, up 1.0; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 72.6, up 1.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 1.2, down 3.6; IH next - quarter minus current - month was 0.2, down 3.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 192.2, up 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 316, up 5.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 260.4, down 1.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 425.8, down 0.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions were - 26,574.00, down 2773.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 14,691.00, down 262.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 11,447.00, down 1360.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 37,384.00, down 2167.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4151.24, down 0.8; IF main contract basis was - 14.8, down 4.2. SSE 50 was at 2819.35, up 10.8; IH main contract basis was 0.7, down 4.8. CSI 500 was at 6314.69, down 41.5; IC main contract basis was - 99.3, down 6.2. CSI 1000 was at 6718.48, down 55.4; IM main contract basis was - 114.3, down 2.4 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 18,709.76, up 416.67; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 19,826.41, up 156.08. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2334.31, up 67.60; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) was - 1505.0, up 3090.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were - 399.83 and - 792.11 respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 31.62, down 9.75; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.317, down 0.049. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2508) was 52.00, down 9.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2508) was 54.00, down 4.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 6.52, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 63.76, up 5.52; open interest PCR (%) was 75.91, up 3.25 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 3.80, down 1.60; technical aspect was at 3.20, down 0.90; capital aspect was at 4.40, down 2.20 [2] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in due course. It was necessary to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, boost consumption, promote "two major" construction, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks [2] - From July 28th to 29th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm. The two sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [2] Key Data to Focus On - On July 30th at 20:15, focus on US ADP employment in July; at 20:30, focus on US Q2 GDP; at 21:45, focus on Bank of Canada interest rate decision. On July 31st at 2:00, focus on Fed interest rate decision; at 9:30, focus on China's July manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI; at 10:47, focus on Bank of Japan interest rate decision; at 20:30, focus on US June PCE and core PCE. On August 1st at 9:45, focus on China's July Caixin manufacturing PMI; at 20:30, focus on US July non - farm payrolls report; at 22:00, focus on US July ISM manufacturing PMI [3]

Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]