中信证券：经济或呈现"生产偏强、投资回升、消费稳健、出口仍具韧性"特点 金十数据5月28日讯，中信证券展望2025年中期宏观经济称，不确定性或贯穿2025年经济运行，回顾历 史上不确定性陡升时期，全球经济呈现阶段性收缩与结构性分化并存的特征。展望特朗普2.0时期，一 方面全球私人投资可能受不确定环境抑制，财政或积极扩张加以对冲，另一方面美国消费可能转弱，拖 累中国出口。预计财政扩张将更加聚焦促进消费回暖与价格修复，短期纾困与长期培育并举，以化解隐 债与转型升级推动基建投资回暖，地产调控仍着眼于供需再平衡。为解决产业结构性矛盾，政策将通过 市场化出清与构建公平竞争环境以改善制造业供需均衡，新质生产力与战略性新兴产业发展也将获金 融、科技政策持续支持。展望下半年经济表现，关税扰动仍是影响经济运行的主线，抢出口现象可能使 关税对经济的影响先"价"后"量"，物价端率先反映下行压力，但对GDP的影响可能较为滞后，全年GDP 有望实现5%增长，经济或呈现"生产偏强、投资回升、消费稳健、出口仍具韧性"的特点。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index fell by 0.55% as of May 27, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Key gainers included KJ Intelligent with two consecutive trading limits, Sangfor Technologies up by 17.46%, and Junshi Biosciences up by 8.67% [1] - Major decliners included Weide Information down by 7.53%, Green Harmony down by 6.82%, and Guoguang Electric down by 5.26% [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index, focusing on hard technology sectors such as new generation information technology, high-end equipment, biomedicine, new energy, new materials, and energy conservation and environmental protection [2] - The Huaxia Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF (589000) had a turnover of 1.85% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 49.68 million yuan [1] - Over the past three months, the Huaxia Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF has seen a significant growth of 1.156 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 3 - Institutional research trends indicate that electronics, machinery equipment, and biomedicine are the most frequently researched industries by brokerages since 2025 [1] - More than 30% of over 2,000 listed companies surveyed this year are concentrated in the electronics, machinery, and biomedicine sectors [1] - In May alone, over 90 companies were targeted for brokerage research, primarily in sub-sectors such as electronic components, integrated circuits, and semiconductor materials and equipment [1]

Group 1 - The China-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) decreased by 0.59% as of May 27, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) rose by 0.08%, with a one-month cumulative increase of 2.41% and a five-year net value increase of 16.76% as of May 26, 2025 [2] - The ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 21.99% since its inception, with an average monthly return of 5.28% [2] Group 2 - The central government emphasizes the orderly development of strategic emerging industries and future industries, aiming to enhance the resilience and safety of industrial supply chains [2] - High-end manufacturing and modern service industries are identified as key sectors in the Greater Bay Area, with potential for leading enterprises to emerge [3] - The economic growth of the Greater Bay Area is expected to be driven by advanced manufacturing and modern services, particularly in fields like big data, semiconductors, cloud computing, and biomedicine [3] Group 3 - The National Enterprise Win-Win ETF (159719) showed mixed performance, with a recent price of 1.5 yuan and a two-week cumulative increase of 0.67% as of May 26, 2025 [5] - The ETF has achieved a net value increase of 43.39% over the past three years, ranking 76 out of 1769 index stock funds [6] - The ETF closely tracks the FTSE China National Enterprises Open Win-Win Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in mainland China and Hong Kong [6] Group 4 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index account for 53.26% of the index, with companies like BYD (002594) and Ping An Insurance (601318) among the leaders [9] - The performance of major stocks in the index varies, with BYD showing a decline of 2.09% and China Mobile (601728) increasing by 0.76% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "China International Science and Technology Promotion Association Mother Fund Branch" aims to enhance the role of mother funds in China's capital market, promote social capital towards innovative and entrepreneurial enterprises, and support the healthy development of the investment industry, particularly the mother fund sector [1][20]. Group 1 - Jiangsu Province has established a special mother fund for green and low-carbon industries with a scale of 2 billion yuan, aiming to support the development of strategic emerging industries [2][4]. - The selection process for fund management institutions will adhere to principles of fairness, legality, and market rules to ensure equal opportunities for all applicants [3][4]. - The fund is organized as a limited partnership and is focused on optimizing the local modern industrial system [5][6]. Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Malaysian Digital Economy Corporation to explore fund investment cooperation in the cultural and digital content sectors [7][8]. - This partnership is part of CICC's efforts to support national strategies and promote the "cultural going out" initiative through financial services [8]. Group 3 - The Changjiang Gongrong Science and Technology Fund in Hubei has completed its registration with a planned scale of 10 billion yuan, focusing on investments in strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors [9]. - This fund represents a collaboration between Changjiang Industry Group, ICBC, and Hongchuan Investment, showcasing a model of central-local cooperation in financial resource integration [9]. Group 4 - China Life Investment, in collaboration with Shoucheng Holdings and Caixin Life, has established a public REITs investment fund with a target scale of 10 billion yuan, aiming to promote the high-quality development of China's public REITs market [10][11]. - This fund is positioned as the largest public REITs investment fund in the market, focusing on revitalizing existing infrastructure assets [11]. Group 5 - Financial discussions between Caixin Financial Holdings and Shenzhen High-tech Investment Group focused on enhancing cooperation in supporting technological innovation and industrial development [12][13]. - Both parties aim to create a comprehensive financial service chain for small and medium-sized innovative enterprises, leveraging their respective strengths [13][14]. Group 6 - National New Capital's leadership visited Hengjian Holdings to discuss deepening financial services and fund cooperation to support Guangdong Province's major projects [15][16]. - The collaboration aims to integrate resources and enhance cooperation in various financial services and fund establishment [16]. Group 7 - Jinpu Industrial Investment Fund Management Company engaged in discussions with Xi'an Financial Company to explore collaboration in equity project investments and fund establishment [17][18]. - The focus is on establishing a "Xi'an Jinpu Technology M&A Fund" to support regional industrial upgrades and economic development [18].

Economic Performance Highlights - The economic performance of Liaoning province in the first four months of the year shows significant growth in strategic emerging industries, accelerated high-end manufacturing, enhanced consumer demand, and improved green energy structure [1][2][3] - The value of invoices issued in the electronic core industry, advanced environmental industry, new energy vehicle-related facilities manufacturing, internet and cloud computing, big data services, and marine engineering equipment industries increased by 37.7%, 26.5%, 24.4%, 23.5%, and 17% year-on-year, respectively [1] Manufacturing Sector Developments - The high-end manufacturing sector is advancing rapidly, with invoice amounts for medical instruments and equipment manufacturing, as well as aerospace and equipment manufacturing, increasing by 13.6% and 1.2% year-on-year [2] - Neusoft Medical Systems Co., Ltd. reported a year-on-year increase of over 30% in invoice amounts [2] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market is experiencing a rise in enthusiasm, with invoice amounts for home audio-visual equipment retail and daily household appliances retail increasing by 45.6% and 44.7% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The overall consumer sector (excluding housing consumption) saw a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, contributing to a 0.6% growth in total invoice amounts for the province [2] Green Energy Initiatives - Liaoning province is committed to a high-quality development path focused on ecological priority and green low-carbon transformation, with a gradual formation of a green industry system [3] - The invoice amounts for clean energy generation (nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, and biomass) grew at a rate 2.3 percentage points higher than that of thermal power generation, accounting for 35.7% of total power generation invoice amounts, exceeding the national average by 4.0 percentage points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and international engineering contracts, indicating a positive outlook for its overseas business and strategic initiatives [3][4][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.183 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.17% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 131 million yuan, reflecting a strong financial performance [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities showed significant improvement compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: International Engineering Contracts - The company signed new international engineering contracts worth 699 million USD in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.65% [4][8]. - The total effective contract amount for international engineering projects reached 684 million USD, up 25.27% year-on-year [4][8]. - For the entire year of 2024, the company secured a total of 3.39 billion USD in new contracts, a 7.4% increase from the previous year [4]. Group 3: Overseas Business Development - The company is focusing on high-quality construction projects along the "Belt and Road" initiative, targeting stable political environments and high-demand markets [5]. - Significant projects in Nicaragua include the expansion of the Punta Huete International Airport and various emergency response and storage facility projects [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company signed a total contract for the West Demerara Hospital in Guyana, enhancing its brand presence in the Latin American healthcare construction sector [5]. Group 4: Strategic Emerging Industries - The company is aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" by upgrading traditional industries and developing emerging sectors, with a focus on core technology breakthroughs [6]. - In 2024, revenue from strategic emerging industries reached 861 million yuan, accounting for 7.07% of total revenue [6]. Group 5: Investment and Operation Business - The company is focusing on environmental protection, cableway, and clean energy sectors, achieving significant milestones in 2024 [7]. - Plans are in place to invest approximately 475 million USD in two waste-to-energy projects in Uzbekistan, aligning with the clean energy goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7].

聚焦创投圈新基金情报。 蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇提出，全球科技创新正步入新纪元，中国正在逐渐成为全球科技创新的动力源（Powerhouse），不仅是制造业中心 （Manufacturer Hub），更是创新中心（Innovation Hub）。中国顶尖人才和企业正在关键领域发挥变革性的影响力，重塑全球标准。在新的AI周期中，蓝 驰创投超前地形成了自身AI投资观：AI+3D交互+Robotics的"三浪叠加"，是未来30年科技变革的主题。同时，蓝驰创投紧跟中国科技全球化与人才流动趋 势，投资布局具有全球视野的中国创新企业。 据国家企业信用信息公示系统显示，中广核远航投资（深圳）合伙企业（有限合伙）成立，出资额超250亿元，经营范围为以自有资金从事投资活动、企 业管理。合伙人信息显示，该合伙企业由中国国新控股有限责任公司旗下独资企业国新远航（北京）投资有限公司、中国广核集团有限公司及其旗下中广 核资本控股有限公司共同出资。 眉山市产业发展投资引导基金（以下简称母基金）拟设立眉山中试成果转化子基金（以下简称子基金）。按照"公平公开、综合评价、优中择优"的原则， 遴选子基金管理人。子基金管理人募集不低于10%（含子基 ...

Core Viewpoint - BYD has surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales in Europe, driven by strong support from the State Development Investment Corporation (SDIC) and its funds, which focus on strategic emerging industries [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Impact - SDIC manages 50 funds with a total scale exceeding 270 billion yuan, with 11 national-level government investment funds accounting for 84% of this total [2]. - In 2016, SDIC led a 1.5 billion yuan investment in BYD, helping it establish a 6GWh power battery production line, contributing to BYD's position as the top seller of new energy vehicles in China and globally [2]. - SDIC's funds have strategically invested in key companies in the electric vehicle supply chain, including Horizon Robotics, CATL, and Enjie, enhancing the ecosystem of the new energy vehicle industry [2][4]. Group 2: Focus on Key Technologies - SDIC emphasizes investment in critical common technologies and disruptive technologies to address core technology challenges and strengthen the industrial chain [4]. - The funds have heavily invested in the integrated circuit industry, with 27.8 billion yuan allocated to the entire supply chain, supporting 336 projects to accelerate domestic substitution [4][6]. Group 3: Support for Private Enterprises - Over two-thirds of SDIC's funds are directed towards private enterprises, fostering a new collaborative development model between state-owned and private sectors [9]. - As of March 2023, SDIC has invested in 1,175 projects, aiding 296 companies in entering capital markets, including 143 listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [9]. Group 4: Agricultural Innovation - SDIC has invested in leading companies in biological breeding, significantly impacting agricultural productivity by introducing genetically modified corn varieties that reduce pesticide use and increase farmers' income [6][7]. - The establishment of the National Seed Technology Company by SDIC aims to enhance the domestic breeding industry, with a significant portion of genetically modified varieties being developed by its controlled or affiliated enterprises [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting confidence, focusing on supporting the real economy and addressing potential risks in specific sectors like real estate and small and medium enterprises [1] Key Investment Directions - Strategic emerging industries will be a core pillar for future development, with emphasis on sectors like artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and new energy vehicles, supported by specialized credit mechanisms and insurance funds for technology investments [2] - The digital transformation of the manufacturing sector will be prioritized, particularly through the "AI+" initiative, enhancing smart manufacturing and industrial internet platforms [3] - Infrastructure development will focus on green and low-carbon projects, with financial support for green infrastructure and resource recycling initiatives [4][5] - Agricultural modernization and rural revitalization will receive continued policy support, including increased funding for agricultural machinery updates and rural environment improvements [6] - The healthcare sector will see investments aimed at enhancing medical service capabilities, including the modernization of medical equipment and facilities [7] - Education modernization will be supported through funding for updating teaching equipment and improving cultural and sports facilities [8] Emerging Characteristics in Key Industries - In the industrial sector, funding will focus on equipment updates and smart transformations in traditional industries like steel and non-ferrous metals, aligning with national policies for industrial modernization [9] - The environmental sector will play a crucial role in the green transition, with investments in advanced low-carbon technologies and projects aimed at improving waste management and pollution control [10][11] - The agricultural sector will continue to receive support for machinery updates and technological innovations, enhancing productivity and income for farmers [12] - The healthcare sector will benefit from policies aimed at upgrading medical equipment and enhancing healthcare service delivery [13] - The education sector will see increased funding for updating educational facilities and equipment, supporting the modernization of teaching and research [14] - The digital asset management sector will receive comprehensive financial support, promoting the development of the digital economy [15][16] Diverse Funding Support Types - The introduction of long-term special bonds and local government bonds will provide significant funding for infrastructure and development projects, with a focus on new and emerging industries [17][18] - The scale of local government special bonds is set to reach 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting the government's commitment to infrastructure investment and economic stability [18][20] - Central budget investments are projected to increase to 735 billion yuan in 2025, targeting major construction projects and public services [21] Project Planning Recommendations - The new financial policies present opportunities for reduced financing costs and improved access to funding in key sectors such as technology innovation and green development [22] - Companies should align their investment strategies with national priorities, focusing on emerging industries and sectors supported by government policies [26] - Utilizing policy-driven financing tools and enhancing core competitiveness will be essential for companies to thrive in the evolving economic landscape [28]

Group 1 - The number of companies in strategic emerging industries listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is approaching 2,700, accounting for over 40% of the market capitalization [1] - More than 90% of new listings on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange in 2024 will belong to strategic emerging industries or high-tech enterprises [1] - The conditions for technology companies to go public have become more accommodating, with multiple listing paths established for unprofitable companies, red-chip companies, and those with special voting rights [1] Group 2 - Since the introduction of the "merger and acquisition six guidelines," listed companies have actively planned mergers and acquisitions, resulting in over 1,400 disclosed asset restructurings, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1] - The number of major asset restructurings has exceeded 170, showing a year-on-year increase of over 220% [1] - Approximately 650 asset restructurings have been disclosed by companies in strategic emerging industries, with over 80 being major restructurings [1] Group 3 - Since the implementation of the registration system reform, 90% of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Beijing Stock Exchange, and over half of those on the Growth Enterprise Market, have received investments from private equity and venture capital funds [2] - The scale and proportion of investments from private equity and venture capital funds in strategic emerging industries continue to rise, with over 100,000 projects currently funded and total investment exceeding 4 trillion yuan [2] - The bond market has become an important channel for direct financing for technology companies, with cumulative issuance of Sci-Tech bonds reaching 1.2 trillion yuan [2] Group 4 - In 2024, 539 Sci-Tech bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 610 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 64% [2] - The funds raised are primarily directed towards cutting-edge fields such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [2]