Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, with an increasing number of Chinese companies considering returning to Hong Kong for listing amid geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the reform of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing system in 2018, 33 Chinese companies have listed in Hong Kong, accounting for over 70% of the total market capitalization of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [1] - In the first five months of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw 27 IPOs raising a total of HKD 77.346 billion, nearing the total amount raised in the previous year [2][3]. - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong securities market for the first five months of 2025 was HKD 2.423 billion, more than double the amount from the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is considering relaxing the market capitalization threshold and dual-class share structure restrictions for Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong [1][20]. - The introduction of the "FINI" system aims to shorten the settlement period for new shares from T+5 to T+2, enhancing capital turnover efficiency and attracting more international investors [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The return of large Chinese companies to Hong Kong is expected to inject new vitality into the capital market, with concerns about trading activity and stock price suppression being addressed by the exchange's leadership [2][21]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is driving international capital into the Hong Kong stock market, with a year-to-date increase of over 20% in the Hang Seng Index, leading global major stock markets [7][8]. Group 4: A+H Listing Model - The A+H listing model is gaining traction among Chinese companies seeking overseas financing platforms to support international expansion plans [23]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced measures to facilitate the overseas listing process for mainland companies, reducing compliance costs and time [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is committed to continuously reviewing its listing rules to better serve the needs of companies and adapt to market demands [19][20]. - The exchange's leadership emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity and attracting quality companies to ensure a robust market environment [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing explosive growth in the first half of 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, with COMEX gold prices surpassing $3,450 per ounce, leading to a significant increase in gold ETFs as a prominent investment choice [1][3]. Market Performance - As of June 16, 2025, gold and gold stock indices have risen in tandem due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, with several ETFs tracking the SSH gold stock index showing weekly gains exceeding 7% [2]. - Year-to-date, the overall market for gold ETFs has seen an increase of 124.66%, with total market size growing from 72.608 billion yuan to 163.12 billion yuan, reflecting a robust demand for gold-related investments [1][3]. - The number of gold ETF shares has increased by 10.5 billion this year, with market size surging by 90.5 billion yuan [2]. Underlying Factors - The U.S. debt crisis has intensified concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the fiscal gap reaching $316 billion in May 2025 and a 14% year-on-year increase in annual deficits [4]. - Central banks globally are accelerating de-dollarization, with gold purchases reaching a record high in 2024, totaling 520 tons from January to May 2025, with China, India, and Turkey leading the increases [4]. - The Federal Reserve's shift in policy, including a projected 100 basis points rate cut in 2025, has historically correlated with an average gold price increase of 22% during such cycles [4]. Investment Opportunities - Gold mining stocks are showing high earnings elasticity, with companies like Zijin Mining seeing significant EPS increases with rising gold prices [5]. - The high-end gold jewelry market in China is growing at a rate of 35%, with online sales accounting for 32% of total sales, indicating a structural change in consumer behavior [5]. - Different types of gold ETFs cater to varying risk-return profiles, with physical gold ETFs suitable for hedging against inflation and gold stock ETFs offering higher potential returns [5]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold prices is primarily driven by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, while medium-term support is expected from U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases [5]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization is likely to enhance gold's position in asset allocation over the long term, reflecting a broader transformation in global monetary systems and investment logic [5].

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 785.08 | -7.22 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8864 | 6 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 168935 | -7328 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 409052 | -3277 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 146123 | -509 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 109230 | 4212 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18177 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1215096 | 20165 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 781.25 | -8000.75 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8795 | 8001.5 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.83 | -7993.53 沪银主 ...

世界黄金协会(WGC)与YouGov联合调研的最新数据显示，在72家受访央行中，43%明确表示预期其黄金储备将在未来12个月内增加，这一比例较 去年的29%大幅跃升，创下该项调研8年来的历史新高。 央行黄金囤积热潮达到历史峰值。43%央行计划在未来12个月增持黄金，而美元储备占比正悄然滑向15年新低的46%。 WGC调研指出，黄金在危机时期的表现、投资组合多元化需求以及通胀对冲功能，构成了央行增持黄金的三大核心驱动力。截至发稿，现货黄金 上涨0.05%至3386美元。 更值得关注的是，没有任何一家央行预期会减持黄金。而更长期的视角来看，76%的央行预计其黄金持仓占储备比例将在未来五年内上升，远超 去年的69%。与此形成鲜明对比的是，近四分之三的受访者预期央行美元计价储备将在五年内下降，高于去年的62%。 "西方国家已经停止抛售黄金，新兴市场国家开始买入，它们正在追赶并建立更多黄金储备，"WGC央行业务全球主管Shaokai Fan表示，"这些数 字中的一些变化相当巨大。" 地缘危机催生的"黄金替代"逻辑 自2022年2月俄乌冲突爆发以来，黄金价格飙升95%，于今年4月创下每盎司3500.05美元的历史新高。更 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in capital inflow into Asian markets, driven by increased trading activity from hedge funds, marking the highest level in over five years [1] - According to Goldman Sachs, net long positions among hedge funds rose to the highest level since September 2024 during the period from June 6 to June 12 [1] - The share of developed Asian markets in the total risk exposure tracked by hedge funds has increased to 9%, placing it in the 94th percentile of the past five years, indicating a high allocation level [1] Group 2 - The uptick in hedge fund activity coincides with easing signals from high-level trade negotiations between China and the U.S., which took place in London on June 9-10 [2] - The new pro-market South Korean president has boosted confidence in Asian markets, with promises to push the Kospi index to 5000 and legislative reforms to enhance shareholder rights [2] - Since the election of the new South Korean president, the Kospi index has risen over 7%, surpassing 2900 points [2] Group 3 - Some market participants suggest that the trend of "de-dollarization" to hedge against further dollar weakness is also supporting the overall Asian market [5]

策略 策略报告 [TABLE_COVER] 一致预期的长尾 2025 年下半年展望 [Table_first1] 中国 A 股策略 2025 年 06 月 06 日 [Table_first3] 分析师 策略研究团队 宋劲 jin.song@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC 执证编号：S1720519120002 傅尔 er.fu@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC 执证编号：S1720524010001 65413995/61850/20250610 16:55 在美国经济避免硬着陆的基准情形下，我们看好 AH 市场下半年相对和绝 对收益机会。全球宏观预期已被市场较长期计价，目前全球市场正再度迈 入一致预期的长尾期。面对美国经济强现实弱预期、中国经济弱现实强预 期的割裂，我们认为预期与现实间的错位将在下半年逐步被高频数据所验 证，当前投资者已再度站在十字路口。国际资金推动的"去美元化"叙事将 在交易层面叠加额外波动性。 从股权风险溢价（ERP）角度来看，我们认为沪深 300 仍具配置价值。鉴 于银行业在今年经营压力增加，我们预计金融行业净利率将小幅走低，同 时基于我们对当前宏观增速的预期，我们 ...

贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 入 期 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点代 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/16 | 3415. 20 | 36. 38 | 3434. 80 | 36. 48 | 792. 30 | 8858. 00 | 788. 66 | 8831.00 | | (本表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is pressuring India to abandon Russian arms purchases and exit the BRICS organization in exchange for significant tariff reductions, presenting a strategic dilemma for India [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Pressure on India - U.S. Commerce Secretary made it clear that purchasing Russian weapons would anger the U.S., framing it as a transaction where India must forgo Russian military contracts to ease tariff burdens [3]. - India's military heavily relies on Russian equipment, with 68% of its air force and 90% of its army tanks being Russian-made, making the transition to U.S. systems challenging [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The imposition of a 26% tariff by the U.S. led to a 20% drop in India's seafood exports, highlighting the economic stakes involved in the negotiations [3]. - India's GDP was negatively impacted by 0.8% due to U.S. tariffs, which is more severe than the effects of the pandemic [7]. Group 3: Strategic Consequences - Exiting BRICS could isolate India internationally, as it would lose support from emerging economies while facing disdain from Western nations [5]. - The U.S. is leveraging its position to control India's military supply chain, raising concerns about India's strategic autonomy in defense matters [5][7]. Group 4: Manufacturing Challenges - India's manufacturing sector has seen a decline from 16% to 14% of GDP, with foreign companies preferring to invest in China due to lower labor efficiency in India [7]. - The ongoing tariff situation creates a cycle that hampers India's manufacturing growth and economic stability [7].

·新湖期货：中东局势存在较大不确定性金价波动增大 ·宝城期货：多头持续了结或使金价持续承压 ·华泰期货：黄金行情或暂陷震荡格局 ·Adrian Day Asset Management：美国的融资危机可能推动金价创下新高 ·美国银行：中东局势不会将金价推高至4000美元，但美债问题可能铺就金价未来12个月的看涨道路 【机构分析】 新湖期货表示，隔夜金价大幅走低跌破3400美元关口。中东地缘局势存在较大不确定性，隔夜市场避险 情绪撤退，金价和原油价格大幅回撤。今早中东局势出现反转，受此影响，原油短线拉升超2%，伦敦 现货金价重返3400美元关口。短期来看，大超市场预期的中东地缘局势升温取代此前美国关税政策，成 为影响金价走势的重要因素，黄金避险价值支撑近期金价，后续关注以色列和伊朗局势进展。中长期来 看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金 可能仍偏强。 宝城期货表示，6月13日以色列向伊朗发动空袭，随后几日伊朗回击，市场避险需求上升，纽约金站上 3450美元，沪金高开逼近800元关口。昨日金价高位回落，伴随着油价回落，美股反弹，铜价反弹。从 盘面来看，经过一个 ...

2025年06月17日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属市场回落，以伦敦金计价的国际金价回落 1.38%，收于 3384 美元/盎司；基本面：报 道称，伊朗通过阿拉伯中间人传递信息，愿意继续和谈；欧盟准备在明确条件下接受美国统一 10%的关税； 参议院共和党人日前公布了总统特朗普数万亿美元经济计划中关于税收和医疗保健条款的修订版本，新版本 法案在扩大部分税收减免的同时，将债务上限提高 5 万亿美元；中国 5 月社会消费品零售同比增 6.4%，创 2023 年 12 月来最高。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1175 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金 库存 18 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银库存 1194 吨，比前一交易日减少 14 吨，金 交所白银库存上周库存减少 28 吨至 1319 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15503 吨，比前一交易日增加 8 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 3 月白银进口减至 120 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14675 ...