Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in social financing scale growth under proactive fiscal policy, with a total social financing scale of 426.16 trillion yuan as of May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [4] - The total amount of RMB loans to the real economy reached 262.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7% [4] - The total RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan in the first five months, with household deposits rising by 8.3 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan at the end of May, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) was recorded at 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 572.4 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 9.8 trillion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent financial data released by the People's Bank of China, indicating a significant increase in social financing and loans, alongside a stable growth in broad money supply (M2) despite a slight month-on-month decline [1][2]. Financial Data Summary - In May, the incremental social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with new RMB loans amounting to 620 billion yuan [1][3]. - As of the end of May, the year-on-year growth of broad money (M2) was 7.9%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. Government and Corporate Debt Impact - The growth in social financing was primarily driven by government and corporate bonds, with net financing from government bonds reaching 1.46 trillion yuan in May [3][4]. - The issuance of new special bonds by local governments hit a record high of 443.2 billion yuan in May, indicating strong demand in key sectors like real estate [3][4]. Loan Demand and Structure - Despite a year-on-year decline in new RMB loans, the total RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, reflecting stable loan demand [5][6]. - In May, corporate sector loans accounted for nearly 530 billion yuan, supported by recent interest rate cuts and favorable external trade conditions [6][7]. Alternative Financing Trends - The increasing issuance of government and corporate bonds has created a substitution effect for loans, with bonds and loans together accounting for nearly 90% of social financing [8][9]. - The shift towards direct financing through bonds is seen as beneficial for high-growth sectors, aligning with the ongoing economic transformation [9]. Deposit and Loan Growth Discrepancies - In May, new RMB deposits surged to 2.18 trillion yuan, contrasting with the decline in new loans, attributed to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [11][12]. - The article notes that the growth of deposits and loans may not always align due to various influencing factors, including the rise of wealth management products and market conditions [12][13]. Increase in "Active Money" - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in "active money" which reflects improved market confidence and a potential uptick in economic activities [14][15].

Core Insights - The financial aggregate indicators have exceeded the nominal economic growth rate by a historically high margin and have sustained this for a considerable duration [1] Financial Data Summary - In May, the new social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The new RMB loans amounted to nearly 620 billion yuan in May [1] - By the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Economic Growth Context - In previous years, China's nominal economic growth rate was close to 10%, with social financing and loan growth also maintaining slightly above 10%, indicating a basic match between the two [1] - Recently, the macroeconomic environment has shifted to a medium-to-high growth phase, with financial aggregates continuing to grow at over 8%, exceeding the nominal economic growth rate by approximately 4 percentage points [1]

央行：1-5月社会融资规模增量18.63万亿元 比上年同期多3.83万亿元 智通财经6月13日电，央行数据显示，中国1-5月社会融资规模增量18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿 元；1-4月为16.3429万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加10.38万亿元，同比多增1123亿 元；对实体经济发放的外币贷款折合人民币减少963亿元，同比多减1690亿元；委托贷款减少113亿元， 同比少减802亿元；信托贷款增加627亿元，同比少增1723亿元；未贴现的银行承兑汇票增加1343亿元， 同比多增1662亿元；企业债券净融资9087亿元，同比少2884亿元；政府债券净融资6.31万亿元，同比多 3.81万亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资1504亿元，同比多444亿元。 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

在财通证券首席经济学家孙彬彬看来，5月16日央行公开市场转为净投放，且下午到尾盘资金回归宽 松，表明短期内政府债缴款上升、买断式逆回购可能有到期的情况下，资金面摩擦加大，但资金面显著 收敛的可能性不大。 步入本周（5月19-23日），将迎税期，资金利率进一步下行的空间或不大。资金面的主要影响因素如 下： 第一，税期扰动。由于五一假期，5月纳税申报截止日推迟至22日，23、26日走款，19日起借入7天资金 可跨税期，关注税期对资金面的扰动； 第二，全周逆回购到期4860亿元，到期规模较上周回落。不过临近税期，央行可能加大逆回购投放量； 第三，20日（周二）国库现金定存拟发行2400亿元，对银行负债端形成补充； 第四，政府债净缴款压力大幅回落至3979亿元，对资金面的扰动有所缓解； 新华财经北京5月19日电（刘润榕）人民银行19日开展1350亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率持平1.40%； 鉴于当日有430亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放920亿元。 上周（5月12-16日）央行公开市场实现净回笼3501亿元。尽管央行在周中持续净回笼，但上半周资金利 率显著走低，R001降至1.4%-1.45%的区间。周四降准0. ...

A股 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released revised regulations to enhance the supervision of fundraising by listed companies, aiming to improve the efficiency and safety of fund usage [1] - As of May 15, six *ST companies in A-shares have received pre-notices of termination of listing from the exchange, with half facing delisting due to internal control audit report issues [1] - The Supreme People's Court and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued guidelines to support the high-quality development of the capital market [1] - In Q1, 21 listed automotive companies in A-shares reported a total operating revenue of 507.469 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.324 billion yuan, with leading companies like BYD, SAIC Motor, Great Wall Motors, and Changan Automobile accounting for over 70% of total revenue and over 90% of total net profit [1] - Over 300 listed companies have announced share repurchase plans since April, with a total amount exceeding 100 billion yuan, including both private enterprises and state-owned enterprises [1] - From May 19 to May 23, 40 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with eight companies having a market value of over 1 billion yuan [1] New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks are set to be issued this week: Guqi Wool Materials on May 19 and Zhongce Rubber on May 23 [2] Financial Sector - The Wind Bank Index reached a historical high of 7072.61 points as of May 15, with the banking, insurance, and brokerage sectors driving the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points [3] - As of the end of April, the social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.0%, both showing a significant acceleration compared to the previous month [3] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first four months of 2025 reached 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, effective May 15, as part of a moderately loose monetary policy [3] Bond Market - Following the announcement of a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts, there has been a noticeable divergence in government bond yields, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 4.93 basis points to 1.4131% and the 10-year and 30-year yields increasing by 5.06 and 5.2 basis points, respectively [4] Private Equity - The private equity fund industry is undergoing a new round of reshuffling, with the number of private securities investment fund managers with over 10 billion yuan in assets increasing to 87 as of May 12 [4] Automotive Industry - In the first four months of 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% [6] - As of May 11, the number of applications for the automobile trade-in subsidy reached 3.225 million, with 1.035 million for scrapping and 2.19 million for replacement [6]

Group 1 - The central bank's report indicates a significant rebound in M2 growth and a high level of social financing, suggesting that market liquidity is reasonably ample and funds are actively flowing into the real economy [1][2] - As of the end of April, M2 balance reached approximately 325 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, while the social financing scale stood at about 424 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year [2] - The increase in M2 is primarily attributed to non-bank deposits, which are linked to a recovering stock market, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2] Group 2 - The growth rate of credit remains robust, with a total increase of 1.006 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first four months of 2025, and a year-on-year growth of 7.2% as of the end of April [3] - In April, new loans amounted to 280 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 450 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, largely due to the high volume of loans in March [5] - The decline in corporate loans is noted, with a 250 billion yuan year-on-year decrease, while the residential loans saw a slight reduction of 50 billion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The social financing scale added 1.16 trillion yuan in April, which is approximately 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same month last year, with an increase in growth rate compared to the previous month [7] - The strong fiscal support and rapid bond issuance this year have significantly bolstered social financing, contributing to a favorable economic outlook [7] - Analysts predict that the central bank will continue to implement interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year, which may lead to a recovery in new credit and social financing [8]

Economic Indicators - In the first four months of 2025, China's RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 8% year-on-year to 325.17 trillion yuan[11] - The total social financing increment for the same period was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan compared to the previous year[15] - By the end of April 2025, the social financing scale stock was 424.0 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[16] Loan and Financing Structure - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 262.27 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year, accounting for 61.9% of the total social financing stock[17] - Foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 33.9% year-on-year, with a balance of 1.18 trillion yuan[16] - Government bond net financing reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.58 trillion yuan[15] Market Reactions and Trade Agreements - The US and China agreed to suspend 24% tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff, which may ease cost pressures for businesses[23] - The agreement is expected to boost market sentiment in US stocks and commodities, benefiting China's export sectors significantly[23] - However, the retained tariffs and ongoing technological barriers in sectors like semiconductors and AI remain a concern for long-term trade dynamics[23]