高股息锚定长期价值，25Q1 盈利强化 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 白色家电 | 公司披露 2024 年报及 25 一季报：2024 年实现总营收 1900.38 亿元，同比 -7.31%，归母净利 321.85 亿元，同比+10.91%，25Q1 总营收/归母净利分 别同比+13.78%/+26.29%。24 年公司归母净利基本符合预期（预期 333.96 亿元），而 25Q1 净利表现较强，主要受益于费用率优化。虽有美国加征关 税挑战，但以旧换新稳固内销需求，公司份额稳定，有望享受政策红利。同 时公司在中期每股分红 1 元的基础上，年报每股再分红 2 元，股息率达 6.66%，结合公司股东回报规划，我们认为公司有望保持较高分红率水平， 仍是家电板块低估值、高股息标杆。维持"买入"评级。 24 年空调主业具备韧性，25Q1 政策红利继续释放 主业表现稳健，24 年消费电器收入为 1486 亿元，同比-4.29%，我们认为 主要受到内销量下滑及线上均价波动影响。1）出货量：根据产业在线数据 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is facing increasing pressure in the short term, but there are expectations for domestic demand policies to take effect [5] - The company reported a revenue of 895 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan, down 25.95% year-on-year [7] - The company is positioned as a leading retailer in the plastic pipe sector, benefiting from domestic demand policies and high dividend yields, which enhance its defensive attributes [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 6,378 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.27%, and is expected to recover to 6,612 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.51% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,000 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.92% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.53 [6] Market Performance - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 40.45%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak market demand and intensified competition [7] - Financial expenses increased significantly, with a growth of 84.16% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in interest income [7] - Cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, with a net cash flow increase of 260 million yuan year-on-year, attributed to reduced raw material purchases [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from infrastructure investments and an increase in market share in the retail sector, providing a performance safety net [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1,000 million, 1,102 million, and 1,219 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.69, and 0.77 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20, 18, and 16 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for value accumulation [7]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need for policies to address external shocks, focusing on expanding domestic demand and investing in the AI industry [1][4][17] - The macro policy tone from the April Politburo meeting is described as both proactive and reserved, with an emphasis on implementing more active macro policies and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments [1][17] - The report highlights the importance of service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, alongside a strong focus on technological innovation and the implementation of the "AI+" initiative [1][17] Group 2 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.38% during the week of April 21-25 [7][11] - The report notes that sectors such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed well, indicating a recovery in the export-related industries [7][14][16] - The report suggests that the AI industry is expected to see significant growth, with major Chinese internet companies increasing their capital expenditures significantly in Q4 2024, indicating a strong future performance for the domestic AI industry chain [14][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall market valuation is relatively low, with the Wan De All A Index's price-to-book ratio at 1.53, which is below historical averages, suggesting strong long-term investment value [14][41] - The report highlights the potential for structural market trends post-May Day holiday, with a focus on domestic demand expansion and the AI industry as key themes [15][24] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment, including service consumption, AI industry chain components, and self-sufficiency areas such as national defense and industrial machinery [24][25][26]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Foreign financial institutions remain optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese market, with a notable increase in confidence among professional investors [1][2] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that global active funds and hedge funds have slightly increased their positions in the AI-driven market, suggesting limited selling space and low downside risk [2] - UBS analysts highlight that the static P/E ratios for the CSI 300 index and all A-shares are 11.7 times and 13.8 times, respectively, indicating that A-shares have a higher risk premium compared to historical averages [2] Group 2: Investment Focus - Foreign institutions are focusing on sectors such as AI, consumption, and high-dividend stocks, with a particular interest in companies benefiting from domestic demand [3] - Analysts suggest that the current dividend yields for A-shares and Hong Kong bank stocks range from 4% to 6%, making them attractive for long-term and value investors [3] - The emphasis is on identifying companies with long-term competitive advantages rather than chasing short-term market trends [3] Group 3: Expansion of Foreign Financial Institutions - Several foreign financial institutions are accelerating their business development in China, with AXA's reinsurance company recently approved to operate in Shanghai [4] - UBS has received approval to establish a wholly-owned securities company in China, which is expected to become the fifth foreign-owned securities firm in the country [4] - The People's Bank of China has introduced 20 policy measures to promote financial openness, aiming to enhance the international competitiveness of China's financial sector [5]

点击小程序查看报告原文 公募基金仓位变动：主动偏股型基金仓位上涨，港股获加仓明显 2025年一季度，A股市场先抑后扬。1月上旬受外部不确定性扰动，市场走势偏弱；春节前后国内AI公司DeepSeek以及机器人等领域的技术突破引发市场 关注，"科技叙事"转变推动中国资产价值重估，指数企稳上行。3月两会后全年经济目标和政策重点明确，市场波动有所加大，有政策支撑的消费股和资 源股有所表现。整体看，一季度上证指数微调0.5%，偏大盘蓝筹的沪深300下跌1.2%，成长风格仍现分化，创业板指下跌1.8%而科创50上涨3.4%，中小市 值的中证1000和中证2000分别上涨4.5%和7.1%，中证红利回调3.1%。在此背景下，主动偏股型公募基金单季度收益率中位数转正为3.6%，好于同期整体 指数表现，收益率较上季度明显回升。 公募基金资产规模小幅收缩，权益资产占比上升，债券资产占比上升。 一季度公募基金整体资产规模小幅收缩，资产总值由上季度的34.8万亿元降至33.8 万亿元。其中，股票资产规模扩张，从上季度的6.8万亿元升至6.9万亿元，股票占资产总值的比重较上季度上升1个百分点至20.5%；债券资产占比较上季 度继续上升 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil and gas industry** and the **coal industry** investment strategies, focusing on the performance of major companies in these sectors [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - The oil sector is divided into three main segments: **oil and gas extraction**, **refining**, and **trading**. The performance of the three major oil companies is compared with oil prices, although specific company details are not disclosed [1]. - The **domestic economic recovery** is noted, with the oil and gas extraction sector showing signs of profitability, while the trading segment has experienced a slight decline [2]. - In 2024, the **CPI in the U.S.** is expected to rise at a decreasing rate, dropping below **3.0%**, indicating a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The **revenue** for the oil and gas extraction sector in the first three quarters of 2024 reached **336.17 billion yuan**, a **6.01%** year-on-year increase, while the trading segment's revenue was **522.36 billion yuan**, reflecting a **2.52%** decline [3]. - Oil prices are projected to remain within a comfortable profit zone for oil companies, with a monthly average price of **$80.8 per barrel** for 2024, despite fluctuations [4]. - The **Brent crude oil price** averaged **$78.34 per barrel** in February, with a decline of **3.56%** from March [5]. - The **global oil supply** is expected to gradually increase in early 2025, but uncertainties remain regarding demand, particularly due to the new U.S. presidential administration's policies [5]. - OPEC's strategy includes **dynamic production cuts** and collaboration with non-OPEC countries to address market imbalances, with a recent decision to extend voluntary production cuts until March 2025 [6][7]. - The **Brent crude oil price** has shown steady growth since 2021, with a year-on-year increase of **0.7%** in the third quarter of 2024 [7]. - Companies like **CNOOC** and **PetroChina** reported significant profit growth, with CNOOC achieving a **19.5%** increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [8]. - Investment recommendations emphasize focusing on companies with **high dividends** and **growth potential**, particularly in a high oil price environment [8]. Additional Important Insights - The **capital expenditure** in the oil sector is increasing, which is expected to enhance production capacity and overall growth, distinguishing it from the coal sector [9][10]. - The discussion highlights the importance of balancing **dividend yields** and **growth potential**, with oil companies showing a lower dividend rate compared to coal companies [10]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the oil and gas industry's current state and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize at the support levels of 3100 points for the Shanghai Composite Index and 9200 points for the Shenzhen Component Index, leading to a structural market trend favoring domestic demand, domestic substitution, and high-dividend sectors [2][5][6]. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant adjustments due to escalating trade tensions with the United States, but showed signs of stabilization in the latter half of the week [3]. - Early in the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.34% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 9.66%, with over 5200 stocks declining and nearly 3000 hitting the daily limit down [4]. - Sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the Apple supply chain, automotive parts, and communication equipment, faced the largest declines, while technology stocks showed some recovery later in the week [4]. - The agricultural sector became a market highlight following the release of a policy aimed at advancing agricultural technology and promoting independent innovation in seed industries, leading to active stock performance in related companies [4]. - The high-speed rail sector saw significant gains, and the duty-free segment of consumption benefited from new tax refund measures aimed at attracting foreign tourists [4]. Market Outlook - In the context of overseas market declines and ongoing trade tensions, the health and stability of the A-share market are deemed crucial [5]. - Institutions such as Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin announced plans to increase their holdings in A-shares starting April 7, indicating confidence in the market [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration's announcement to adjust the regulatory ratio of insurance funds to equity assets aims to enhance support for the capital market and the real economy [5]. - A number of A-share companies have also announced stock repurchases, reflecting their confidence in future growth prospects [5]. - The resilience and potential of the Chinese economy are highlighted, with a focus on companies that are becoming globally competitive as key stabilizing forces in the market [5].

资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 3 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中国石化》20240829 《中国石化》20240328 《中国石化》20230922 石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 7 日 600028.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 5.78 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (11.9) 0.7 (12.0) (11.1) 相对上证综指 (14.3) (0.1) (16.1) (20.0) 发行股数 (百万) 121,281.56 (12%) (7%) (1%) 4% 9% 14% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Apr-25 中国石化 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 118,891.12 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 701,007.39 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 813.94 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the internet media sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the internet sector is experiencing a rebound supported by strong fundamentals, including improved competition dynamics, normalization of platform regulations, and potential growth driven by AI applications [5]. - Short-term focus is on high-dividend stocks such as Focus Media and educational publishing, with expectations of stable profits and growth due to regulatory changes [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in transforming cloud computing, suggesting a new paradigm that enhances scale effects and supply-side capabilities [5]. Summary by Sections Media Sector - Global trade uncertainties have impacted Chinese internet stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index dropping by 9% since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [5]. - The internet sector's recovery is primarily driven by domestic demand, with key factors including reduced competition and supportive regulatory environments [5]. Advertising and Publishing - Focus Media is noted for its resilient elevator advertising and high dividends, while educational publishing is expected to maintain stable demand and profitability [5]. - Key companies to watch include Changjiang Publishing, Zhongnan Publishing, and Phoenix Publishing, which are anticipated to benefit from favorable tax policies [5]. AI and Cloud Computing - The report discusses the rising demand for cloud computing driven by AI, with a focus on the integration of chips, cloud services, and applications [5]. - Recommended companies in the cloud computing space include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kingsoft Cloud, which are expected to leverage their advantages in the AI era [5]. Gaming and New Consumption - The report identifies new consumption trends among the post-00s generation, highlighting companies like Pop Mart and Aofei Entertainment as key players [5]. - In the gaming sector, companies such as Giant Network and Perfect World are highlighted for their potential growth [5]. Valuation Overview - A detailed valuation table is provided, showcasing the market capitalization, revenue, and profit forecasts for key companies in the sector, indicating growth rates and price-to-earnings ratios [7].

今日，A股市场延续跌势，超4 000只个股飘绿。量能略微提升至1 . 2万亿左右；港股方面跌幅同样惨烈，恒 生指数一度跌逾1. 5%、恒科指一度跌逾3%。 资本市场集体跳水，主要原因是 海外关税风险正在逼近 。 据中国基金报消息，百达资产管理日本有限公司（Pi c t e t Ass e t Ma na geme nt J a pa n Lt d．）投资策略主管 J ump e i Ta na ka表示，"在4月2日的关税之前，市场可能会感到紧张。" 0 1 罕见出手，5200亿天量资金 周末传来大消息 ，交行、中行、建行、邮储几乎是同时发布公告，分别定向增发募资1200亿、16 50亿， 105 0亿和1300亿，合计募资5 200亿补充一级核心资本，其中财政部包揽了整整5 000亿。 历史上， 国有大行有三轮主要注资，还是非常罕见的。 上一次还是1 5年前！当时主要是为了应对外资银行冲击，主动要把四大行推向市场，第一步就是 要推动他们股改上市，财政部是用了外汇储备的钱，通过中央汇金对工农中建分别注资15 0亿美 元、190亿美元、2 2 5亿美元、225亿美元，搞了注资、处置了不良资产，又引进了战略投资者 ...