转债攻守道：5 月转债投资策略 20250429 摘要 转债市场当前状况及未来趋势如何？ 当前转债市场趋稳，但估值快速修复到前期高位的判断并不成立。目前热门标 的券价格虚高，但整体转债估值已有一定修复。最近两周股性和平衡转债价格 有所回升，资金面趋稳。从年初至今，小盘股及弹性行业转债溢价率上升较快， 但整体风格较为平衡，以汽车、交运、公共事业等行业走强为主。机构持有规 模下降但仓位增配明显，与路演情况类似。今年（2025 年）2 月至今国家收益 率处于底部过程中，转债估值同步上升。目前利率重新下行，对转债估值形成 托底，但对股票市场预期相对较弱。 近期多策略表现如何？未来策略建议是什么？ 近期中证转债出现微修复，上证指数连续多天阳线，小票反弹是主力，包括机 构低配和低研究覆盖度的小票，中性转债走势也较强。而防御型配置股息率策 略偏弱。预计反弹最高时间段已接近尾声，下行空间有限，有政策性资金托底。 目前成交量在万亿左右波动，因此我们认为 5 月仍将呈现震荡走势。行业走势 分化明显，如银行、电力机械等轮动快。在此背景下，我们建议重点关注三个 当前来看，我们判断市场已经走出了关税扰动最强的时间段，业绩披露期也接 近 ...

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for a stable and active capital market, leading insurance companies to plan for increased equity asset allocation [1] - Since the approval of the second batch of long-term stock investment trials by the financial regulatory authority, the scale has reached over 100 billion, with more insurance institutions looking to participate [1][2] - Insurance funds are increasingly focusing on core A-share assets, particularly those close to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, while also paying attention to sectors like banking, transportation, public utilities, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [1][3] Group 2 - In the first quarter, insurance funds increased their holdings in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, steel, home appliances, and defense, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2] - Insurance institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, with a focus on stable dividend strategies and a continued emphasis on the pharmaceutical sector due to its favorable mid-term performance [3] - The expected influx of several hundred billion yuan in new capital into the market is driven by the need for insurance funds to seek absolute returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4] Group 3 - Regulatory measures to raise the equity allocation limits for insurance companies reflect a commitment to stabilize the market and boost confidence [4] - The current environment of low interest rates and asset scarcity makes high-dividend stocks a necessary choice for insurance companies, positioning them as a key focus for future equity allocations [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the increasing preference for defensive assets, particularly the Hong Kong dividend low volatility ETF (520550), which has seen continuous net inflows for nine weeks and a nearly 6% increase in fund size year-to-date, reaching a historical peak [3] - The structural differences in high dividend assets between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are noted, with A-shares concentrated in traditional industries like coal, banking, and textiles, while Hong Kong's high dividend sectors are more diversified, including real estate, public transport, and construction [3] - The defensive nature of dividend assets is emphasized, showing significant excess returns during market downturns, although absolute returns remain positively correlated with overall market trends [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong dividend low volatility ETF (520550) is designed to optimize investment experience through a low management fee of 0.2%, monthly dividend distribution, and T+0 trading to enhance liquidity [4] - The ETF focuses on mature industry leaders in finance and energy, with strict weight limits on individual stocks to avoid "dividend traps," creating a balanced investment portfolio [4] - Analysts suggest that in the current complex market environment, Hong Kong dividend assets with valuation advantages and dividend certainty may become a key strategic allocation choice, especially as the interconnectivity between mainland and Hong Kong markets deepens [4]

作者 | 大健康萌主 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 2025 年，全球医疗健康产业迎来时代大考。关税壁垒重构叠加地缘政治波动，一系列悬而未决的政策，进一步增加了行业的不确定性。 当不确定性成为新常态，成立 34 年的迈瑞医疗却交出了穿越周期的答卷： 自 2018 年上市以来，公司实现营收与归母净利润连续七年双增长， 2024 年的营收为 2019 年的 2.2 倍，归母净利润为 2019 年的 2.5 倍。 业绩的翻倍增长，无异于用 5 年时光"再造了一个迈瑞"，这在国内外宏观环境剧烈变化的挑战下尤其难得。 更难能可贵的是，在保持高强度研发投入（ 2024 年研发支出占比 10.91% ）的同时，公司持续践行高比例分红承诺，最新年度现金分红金 额蝉联行业榜首。当众多企业选择储粮过冬时，这种 " 既造血又输血 " 的双轨能力，恰恰折射出企业对未来发展空间的预判。 在产业变革与市场波动双重压力下，支撑迈瑞医疗从容前行的核心竞争力究竟是什么？ 连续七年高比例分红 01 年派现规模突破76亿元 从最新披露的分红方案可以看出，迈瑞底气十足。 根据 2024 年度分红预案显示，公司拟向全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to increase online investments, leveraging product strength and effective management to enhance live e-commerce and drive revenue and profit growth [7] - The company plans to expand its franchise stores, targeting high-end brand demand in lower-tier cities, while enhancing brand image through direct store empowerment [7] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 95.8% for 2024, with a dividend per share of 6.2 yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.4% [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 3.011 billion yuan, 542 million yuan, and 504 million yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 0.6%, 5.2%, and 3.47% [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 56.1% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 18.0% [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 536 million yuan, 56 million yuan, and 49 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 17.8%, 54.12%, and 53.43% [3] Operational Insights - The company's direct sales efficiency declined, while franchise efficiency remained stable in 2024, with revenue from direct sales, franchises, e-commerce, group purchases, and others being 736 million yuan, 836 million yuan, 1.121 billion yuan, 173 million yuan, and 147 million yuan, respectively [4] - The company experienced a significant increase in accounts receivable, which grew by 41.2% year-on-year, leading to longer turnover days [6] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 3.176 billion yuan, 3.339 billion yuan, and 3.511 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 559 million yuan, 592 million yuan, and 622 million yuan for the same years [9][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.67 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 0.74 yuan, respectively [9][11]

三大指数走势较为低迷，上证指数收盘微跌 0.05%，报收于 3 2 8 6 . 6 5 点，全天波动范围 极为有限，在窄幅区间内震荡运行。从个股涨跌分布来看，市场呈现出涨多跌少的格局， 上涨个股数量超过3 7 0 0家。而跌停个股数量多达58家，反映出市场内部存在明显的两极 分化现象。这种分化表明，尽管整体市场看似平稳，但不同个股和板块之间的表现差异巨 大，结构性行情特征显著。 盘面上， PEEK材料概念股大涨，聚赛龙、新瀚新材、中欣氟材涨停。 美容护理板块午 后持续拉升，丸美生物涨停，芭薇股份、锦波生物、上海家化涨幅居前。其它个股方面， 步步高、茂业商业午后拉升涨停走出"地天板"。 电力板块今日回调，韶能股份、乐山电 力、西昌电力、广西能源等股跌停。白酒板块亦表现落后，迎驾贡酒盘中跌停，洋河股 份、古井贡酒、山西汾酒跌幅居前。 01降准时机已到？ 具体来看，一是财政政策方面， 会议强调"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发 行使用" ，财政政策仍然是用好用足政策工具，第二季度政府债券发行仍将保持较快节 奏。 二是货币政策方面，会议延续了适度宽松、保持流动性充裕等表述，预计支持性的货币政 策导向不变。 降 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of public funds in China for Q1 2025, highlighting the mixed results amid recent market conditions and investment strategies [2] - Fund managers have adopted various strategies, including focusing on robotics, domestic consumption, and high dividend stocks, but many have failed to deliver positive returns [2][3] - Zhang Peng, a veteran fund manager at Rongtong Fund, has only one product with a positive return, while the others have not achieved any gains since the beginning of 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The largest fund managed by Zhang, Rongtong Internet Media, has a poor performance with a return of approximately 18% since inception, and the other two funds have not achieved any gains [3][4] - The top holdings in Zhang's fund show a lack of significant performance, with only two stocks exceeding a 5% weight, and the overall strategy appears to lack conviction [4] - Another fund manager, Guan Shan, has also faced challenges, with her fund, Rongtong New Consumption, at risk of being liquidated due to a net asset value below 50 million [5][6] Group 3 - Guan Shan's fund has underperformed with a return of less than 60% since she took over, and the recent quarterly report indicates a low stock allocation of 75% [5][6] - The fund's strategy focuses on consumer sectors, but it has struggled to capitalize on market trends, leading to negative annual returns since 2022 [5][6] - The introduction of a new co-manager, Li Ruihong, aims to improve the fund's performance, although her previous experience has been limited [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Bank [1] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's revenue and profit growth exceeded expectations, driven by a significant increase in net interest income and a reduction in tax expenses, contributing to a stable revenue base and high dividend yield [6][10] - The bank's asset quality indicators are improving, with a slight decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and a high provision coverage ratio, indicating strong risk management [6][10] - The report projects an upward revision in profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 8.9%, 9.2%, and 9.4% respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Jiangsu Bank achieved a revenue of 22.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit of 9.8 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [4][6] - The bank's net interest income grew by 22% in Q1 2025, contributing 14.2 percentage points to revenue growth, while non-interest income declined by 23% [6][10] - The NPL ratio decreased to 0.86% in Q1 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 344%, indicating robust asset quality management [4][6] Loan Growth and Structure - Total loans increased by 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from corporate loans, which saw a quarterly increase of nearly 180 billion yuan [6][8] - Retail loan growth showed signs of recovery, with a net increase of 17.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, compared to a decrease in the same period last year [6][8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.71, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 5.14% for 2025 [6][10] - The report highlights a favorable valuation compared to historical averages, suggesting potential upside for investors [6]

2025 年 4 月 29 日 总量研究 关注三类资产 ——2025 年 5 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 4 月 A 股港股市场有所回落 4月港股市场波动明显。4月受海外风险事件扰动、国内政策预期升温等因素影 响，港股市场整体走势震荡，出现较大幅度波动。截至2025年4月25日，恒生香 港35、恒生综合指数、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 -3.3%、-4.5%、-4.9%、-5.1%、-7.6%。 A股观点：或震荡上行，关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A 股市场有望震荡上行。当 前 A 股市场的估值处于 2010 年以来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长 期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A 股市场有望 震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资 产能够在市场面临不确定时提供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环" 新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱动下，国产替代相关机会也值得关注。方 向三：内需消费。海外政策可能长期处于不确定性的背景下，内需板块值得长期 关注。 港股观点：关注"哑 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The report indicates that Sinopec's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 735.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.3 billion yuan, down 27.58% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in oil and gas prices has significantly pressured the sector's profits, with oil equivalent production at 131 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while crude oil production decreased by 0.8% [2]. - Concerns over peak demand for refined oil have led to continued pressure on refining profits, with refining throughput at 6.2 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, and total refined oil sales at 5.6 million tons, down 7.1% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is set at 55.5 billion, 56.2 billion, and 61.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [4]. - The expected dividend yield for A shares in 2025 is projected at 5.6%, while H shares are expected to yield 9.0% [4]. - Financial data shows a projected revenue of 3,136.05 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 2.00% [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Sinopec's current market capitalization is approximately 555.2 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 541.5 billion yuan [6]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to be 12.47 for 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.80 [5][11].